Receiver separation is still BAD

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Dead wrong - AZ holds a playoff spot.  And I'd argue we have other "quality" wins e.g. most recently against the Fish.  That said, I understand we've had a fairly easy schedule - Toughens up alot over the next several weeks and will be a good test.

 

I forgot Arizona’s win this week put them into first in their struggling division.

 

Ok, we are now 1-2.

[TheWei44]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

I forgot Arizona’s win this week put them into first in their struggling division.

 

Ok, we are now 1-2.

Hopefully 2-2 after Sunday

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

No one cares about clinching a weak division if we are just going to lose in the playoffs again to superior teams.

You would be incorrect in that thought, just sayin, 

 

😁👍🍸🚬

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

This would be a good argument if we didn’t have a losing record against teams with a winning record.

 

But as it stands, we have beaten 0 teams who currently hold a playoff spot. In fact, we are 0-2 against teams who currently are in a playoff spot.

 

And unfortunately, we will be playing good teams in the playoffs. So beating up against bottom feeders won’t help up as that time.

 

Beating the Chiefs will go a long way toward changing that perception, but until we actually do it, not getting separation against bad teams is … well … just that. 

Miami was 1-0 when we beat them the first time, iirc the colts did not have a losing record when we beat them, it is hardly our fault that we put said teams into the negative by beating them, play off spot you say, we have as guaranteed a playoff spot as can happen, you my friend are making assumptions that we won’t be able to compete come the post season, this is a Shrodengers (sp) cat exercise, entertaining but reaches no conclusions, you could be correct in your apprehension, as I could be correct in my lack of said apprehension. We will have to wait and see how the “entire season plays out, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[uticaclub]

19 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

You would be incorrect in that thought, just sayin, 

 

😁👍🍸🚬

You're right; nothing is 100%. There are fans who would be more than happy to win the division and then lose in the playoffs again. I'm just hoping Cincinnati doesn't secure the 7 seed and we get the 2 seed, so we can at least win one playoff game again.

12 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Miami was 1-0 when we beat them the first time, iirc the colts did not have a losing record when we beat them, it is hardly our fault that we put said teams into the negative by beating them, play off spot you say, we have as guaranteed a playoff spot as can happen, you my friend are making assumptions that we won’t be able to compete come the post season, this is a Shrodengers (sp) cat exercise, entertaining but reaches no conclusions, you could be correct in your apprehension, as I could be correct in my lack of said apprehension. We will have to wait and see how the “entire season plays out, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

Colts were 4-5 last week, now they are 4-6

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Miami was 1-0 when we beat them the first time, iirc the colts did not have a losing record when we beat them, it is hardly our fault that we put said teams into the negative by beating them

 

This argument holds water in Week 3, when we are one of the only teams to play them. It doesn’t hold water in Week 11, when they have lost to 4 other teams too.

 

16 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

you my friend are making assumptions that we won’t be able to compete come the post season

 

I never said that.

 

I said assuming our lack of separation is acceptable because we have beaten the dregs of the NFL, is faulty.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Could someone please tell me one reason why WR separation (as a stat) means anything.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Could someone please tell me one reason why WR separation (as a stat) means anything.  

Because it puts more pressure on Allen. 
 

You saw it against the Ravens, Allen has to throw two back shoulders to Coleman to generate any kind of offense, and overcome his drop.

 

Exhibit A is the Texans game. Allen throws 30 times. With no Cooper yet, no Shakir, Coleman was blanketed, leaving Hollins and a gimpy Samuel.

 

Look at WR group, nobody catches more than 5-6 passes a game. There is no Ja’Marr Chase here who just wins. 
 

Allen has been good enough in 2021, 2022, 2023 and now 2024 to squeeze 27-30 ppg out of this offense, but he’s largely been made to play with below

average skill position talent here.

 

Diggs was a high level possession WR, and after that it’s been band aids - low round draft picks and older Free Agents. 
 

 

[Maine-iac]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Because it puts more pressure on Allen. 
 

You saw it against the Ravens, Allen has to throw two back shoulders to Coleman to generate any kind of offense, and overcome his drop.

 

Exhibit A is the Texans game. Allen throws 30 times. With no Cooper yet, no Shakir, Coleman was blanketed, leaving Hollins and a gimpy Samuel.

 

Look at WR group, nobody catches more than 5-6 passes a game. There is no Ja’Marr Chase here who just wins. 
 

Allen has been good enough in 2021, 2022, 2023 and now 2024 to squeeze 27-30 ppg out of this offense, but he’s largely been made to play with below

average skill position talent here.

 

Diggs was a high level possession WR, and after that it’s been band aids - low round draft picks and older Free Agents. 
 

 

Shakir and Kincaid both average more separation than Chase.  Shakir is leading the league at the WR postion.  Hollins averages as much separation as Cooper.  Other than arguing the stat itself it translates very little to on the field and wins and losses.  Of the 3 worst WR's from a separation as a stat perspective two of them are Harrison Jr and AJ Brown who both play for and are the leading WR's on division leading teams

[Augie]

2 hours ago, uticaclub said:

No one cares about clinching a weak division if we are just going to lose in the playoffs again to superior teams.

 

Where did you get the idea that you get to speak for everybody?

 

You just want to whine enough for all of us. 

 

The best way to get to a Super Bowl is to win your division. If we don’t win the Super Bowl, I’m a big boy and I can live with that. It would be a fun ride to get to the AFCCG game again, and advance. But I’ll wait and see how things turn out rather than complain about things that have not yet come to be. 

 

 

.

Edited Wednesday at 10:57 PM by Augie

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Shakir and Kincaid both average more separation than Chase.  Shakir is leading the league at the WR postion.  Hollins averages as much separation as Cooper.  Other than arguing the stat itself it translates very little to on the field and wins and losses.  Of the 3 worst WR's from a separation as a stat perspective two of them are Harrison Jr and AJ Brown who both play for and are the leading WR's on division leading teams

So in your mind we should be all good here. 
 

Shakir’s ADOT is 3.4 yards, and 2.5 YBC, strictly a slot player. 
 

Kincaid - if you want to base your offense around his skill set, be my guest. He runs a 4.74 and has little game breaking ability. 
 

 

[hondo in seattle]

I don't trust stats on receiver separation because I don't trust the methodology.  But I do think it's true that our guys struggle.  I also think it affects how some advanced metric sites might measure QB accuracy.

 

Maybe it's my imagination, but I think Allen rarely throws to his primary and goes through his reads more than most other QBs.  Maybe this is an Allen issue but I think it's because his primary is often covered.  So either (A) Brady is designing and dialing up bad plays, and/or (B) our wideouts aren't as good as the wideouts on other teams.

 

In either case, I would guess accuracy generally goes down when going to a second, third, or fourth option.  When evaluating Allen's accuracy, I think this needs to be taken into consideration.  

[uticaclub]

27 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Where did you get the idea that you get to speak for everybody?

 

You just want to whine enough for all of us. 

 

The best way to get to a Super Bowl is to win your division. If we don’t win the Super Bowl, I’m a big boy and I can live with that. It would be a fun ride to get to the AFCCG game again, and advance. But I’ll wait and see how things turn out rather than complain about things that have not yet come to be. 

 

 

.

You are right, nothing is 100%, and I can accept that. However, the more Josh has to be a superhero, the shorter his career will be, and the lesser our chances of winning a Super Bowl. 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, uticaclub said:

You are right, nothing is 100%, and I can accept that. However, the more Josh has to be a superhero, the shorter his career will be, and the lesser our chances of winning a Super Bowl. 

Unfortunately it’s more his play style than something he does out of necessity.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So in your mind we should be all good here. 
 

Shakir’s ADOT is 3.4 yards, and 2.5 YBC, strictly a slot player. 
 

Kincaid - if you want to base your offense around his skill set, be my guest. He runs a 4.74 and has little game breaking ability. 
 

 

Thanks for pointing out Shakir plays from the slot.  A point I made before this thread died out weeks ago.  Nearly every pass catcher in the top 25 for this stat is either a TE or a slot WR.  Only 3 out of the top ten in this stat have an average targeted air yards of over 6. It's totally dominated by slot WR's and TE's.  Nearly all of the best outside WR's have terrible separation stats and are great WR's.  Look at the list of worst separation and it's a who's who of good outside WR's.  So the stat doesn't mean anything.  Especially in terms of outside WR production.  

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

You are right, nothing is 100%, and I can accept that. However, the more Josh has to be a superhero, the shorter his career will be, and the lesser our chances of winning a Super Bowl. 

 

2 minutes ago, Andrew Son said:

Unfortunately it’s more his play style than something he does out of necessity.

 

 

 

I think if we can magically heal our pass catchers, Josh will be fine again…..until he needs to be Superman. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Thanks for pointing out Shakir plays from the slot.  A point I made before this thread died out weeks ago.  Nearly every pass catcher in the top 25 for this stat is either a TE or a slot WR.  Only 3 out of the top ten in this stat have an average targeted air yards of over 6. It's totally dominated by slot WR's and TE's.  Nearly all of the best outside WR's have terrible separation stats and are great WR's.  Look at the list of worst separation and it's a who's who of good outside WR's.  So the stat doesn't mean anything.  Especially in terms of outside WR production.  

What stat correlates linearly to points scored/winning?

 

Outside of turnovers and 3rd down conversion maybe? 
 

 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

 

I think if we can magically heal our pass catchers, Josh will be fine again…..until he needs to be Superman. 

He’s fine now.  But that’s just how he plays.  He’s never going to be a pinpoint, timing based distributor.  
 

I remember last year when we had that rough stretch and Josh was focusing on playing from the pocket.  Everyone was crying “free Josh!”  “They’ve neutered him!!!”  He’s simply more effective when he mixes it up a bit.

 

Yes, I wish he would protect himself a bit more, but this is what we have.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Andrew Son said:

He’s fine now.  But that’s just how he plays.  He’s never going to be a pinpoint, timing based distributor.  
 

I remember last year when we had that rough stretch and Josh was focusing on playing from the pocket.  Everyone was crying “free Josh!”  “They’ve neutered him!!!”  He’s simply more effective when he mixes it up a bit.

 

Yes, I wish he would protect himself a bit more, but this is what we have.

 

Again, to MY point, it will help when he gets his pass catchers back. He can run, but he doesn’t have to run if he has better passing options. I’m not looking to bubble wrap him, I’m being hopeful and smart. 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

Again, to MY point, it will help when he gets his pass catchers back. He can run, but he doesn’t have to run if he has better passing options. I’m not looking to bubble wrap him, I’m being hopeful and smart. 

Certainly won’t hurt to get back the full arsenal.

 

But MY point is even with a full stable of excellent options, he’s still going to play how he plays.