Receiver separation is still BAD

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Seattle was 4-3 when we played them, or are we going to play the game of "let's pretend what happened after we played them counts"? Essentially they no longer have a "winning record" because we went into their house, punched them in the face, took their lunch money and bullied them into submission.

 

Seattle is the Bills of the drought. They have a Kyle Orton at QB and beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. They are 1-3 against teams with a winning record.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Seattle is the Bills of the drought. They have a Kyle Orton at QB and beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. They are 1-3 against teams with a winning record.

 

C'mon man.  That's absurd. Geno Smith is far better than Kyle Orton ever dreamed about being. He is not an "elite QB" by any means but he has been a good player for them by and in large.  

 

Nobody completes nearly 70% of their passes in a season, throws for 4300 yards and 30 TDs by being trash, I don't care who you have around you on offense.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea Pickens isn't a big separation guy. He is plenty fast enough but he doesn't have the best release package and he isn't really a route runner so he ends up having to make a ton of contested catches or at least catches in traffic. He is, however, elite at and around the catch point. His body control, hands and ability to track the football are elite. What you ideally want opposite him is a proper technician of a route runner. I think if the Bills had drafted him when he came out when they still had a season and a half of prime Diggs to play the other side they would have been borderline unplayable. 

This is also why it's less important that Coleman isn't a big separation guy.  He'll win in other ways.  Cooper isn't really winning with separation either his score is about the same as Hollins.  So the teams separation score probably will not get better with Cooper and it really doesn't matter because Cooper will also win in other ways.

[colin]

we are def not getting the separation we need, altho that seemed to change a bit at times vs seattle.

 

coleman is just not a natural separator, he can use his athletic talent to make small spaces matter, and just sort of steal the ball in the air, but that's not a skill he's shown, could change.  mvs and hollins have run a lot of routes for us, and they suck out loud when covered.  i don't think tight ends really get much separation as a position (the good ones find a little seam and use the big body to screen the defender) and i don't think backs running around behind or less than 5 yards of the LOS even count as separation since they aren't being actively covered, but if someone knows i'd like to hear about it.

 

cooper is our sole get open quickly guy, and he's actually really good at it.  josh has been about the longest holder of the ball in his nfl career, and has done magic work on broken plays.  when the qb holds the ball, you basically get a situation where the d can't cover everyone for ever.  if we can keep running like a tank, hitting backs in stride, some sort of semblance of a screen game, then i think play action and the addition of cooper can get us to like maybe mid of the pack going forward.

 

allen with a run game and any open wrs, behind what is shaping up to be a solid line, is not something nfl d's can handle, and i'm here for it.

[GASabresIUFan]

58 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Nearly 40% of Allen’s completed passes on Sunday were behind the LOS. 

 

Two weeks ago, nearly 70% of Allen’s completed passes were behind the LOS or within 5 yards of it.

For the above stats to be relevant, show us how Josh compares to other QBs.  I think you'll find similar numbers.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This season Josh is completing 64.1% of his passes.  Career is 63.6%

This season his yards per attempt 7.9 (tying a career high). Career 7.3.

Yards per catch is 12.3 (tying a career high).  Career 11.5

TD per attempt 6.3%.  Career ave 5.4%

Interception rate .4%.  Career 2.3%

Adjusted Yards per attempt 8.97 (career high).  Career ave 7.28

 

Someone is getting open.

 

Or Josh is just amazing talented doing so well with talentless receivers who don't get open.

 

But I agree that I don't trust the metrics.  

[GASabresIUFan]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

with talentless receivers who don't get open.

 

I don't think we can call Coleman, Shakir and Cooper a talentless group of receivers.  

[Einstein]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

For the above stats to be relevant, show us how Josh compares to other QBs.  I think you'll find similar numbers.

 

Average is about half that. 

 

To be fair, these are attempts, so you can up them to 20-25% if you want. We are still well above average.

[Just in Atlanta]

So hear me out. Coleman should run at half speed. His defender would be moving in normal speed and not be able to cover. 

[GASabresIUFan]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Average is about half that. 

 

Show us the other QBs and how they stack up for the season.  What is Mahomes' % for the season, Jackson etc...  One game is meaningless as the gameplan changes week to week.

[hondo in seattle]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't think we can call Coleman, Shakir and Cooper a talentless group of receivers.  

 

I don't actually.  I'm just saying its possible to have receivers who don't get separation and still produce in the passing game if your QB is a stud - which Josh is.

 

Prior to Cooper's  arrival, however, it was disappointing to see how little separation we were getting downfield.  Although that group (Coleman, Shakir, and Hollins) were hardly an all-star trio, I did sometimes think the fault was more Brady's than anybody else's. 

 

But the offense looked beautiful (minus the pick) against Seattle.  

[Eastport bills]

Coleman doesn’t need that much separation and Shakir gets open on every 3rd down. When Cooper gets acclimated he’s proven to be open and the TEs are big, physical and fast. Kincaid can get 6 catches a game with no problem. With Cook, a matchup nightmare for LBs and Safeties, what are you worried about. 

[GASabresIUFan]

9 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I don't actually.  I'm just saying its possible to have receivers who don't get separation and still produce in the passing game if your QB is a stud - which Josh is.

True, but Josh's QB DNA includes and has always included throwing into tight coverage.  Drafting Coleman was Beane's response to Josh's natural propensity.  

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean unless it's an average of the week or a couple weeks, then that's kind of how averages work.

Exactly.  We just acquired Cooper for two games.  I’m not sure what people expected.  We’re still top 5-10 for offensive pts per game and defensive pts allowed per game (meaning of the lowest)

 

No reason for knee jerk reactions.  Just wait for the next 9 games and see what that looks like.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Separation is for eggs and Playtex bras.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

30 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Separation is for eggs and Playtex bras.

Ya gotta keep 'em separated:

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

True, but Josh's QB DNA includes and has always included throwing into tight coverage.  Drafting Coleman was Beane's response to Josh's natural propensity.  

 

 

 

I'd love Josh to become more...  I hate  to say it...  Brady-esque: make a good presnap reads and get the ball out quickly to the open guy.

 

But, you're right.  That's not Josh.  And if he's going to throw into tight coverage, you might as well find a big, strong wideout who excels at contested catches in tight windows.  

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Show us the other QBs and how they stack up for the season.  What is Mahomes' % for the season, Jackson etc...  One game is meaningless as the gameplan changes week to week.

 

I just did…. that was a full season average for all QB’s (2021).

[The Wiz]

23 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

But the deep ball is easily Allen’s worst ability as a thrower. 

QB's that have the best separation are usually just throwing it to an area anyways because of blown coverage that their receivers can sit and wait for the ball.

 

Similar to Keon's long pass vs the Titans.  Blown coverage and Allen just had to throw it in an area.  He doesn't get those to often.

 

 

I'm not shocked that Baltimore has the most separation because all the defenders are watching to see if Henry is getting the ball and then recovering the best they can.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

25 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

QB's that have the best separation are usually just throwing it to an area anyways because of blown coverage that their receivers can sit and wait for the ball.

 

Similar to Keon's long pass vs the Titans.  Blown coverage and Allen just had to throw it in an area.  He doesn't get those to often.

 

 

I'm not shocked that Baltimore has the most separation because all the defenders are watching to see if Henry is getting the ball and then recovering the best they can.

 

That pass to Keon in the Titans game, while it had a lot of separation, it was not a deep ball in the true definition of one. Allen is fine with those passes like the one you describe.  Deep ball to me are those passes that are lofted 40+ air yards down the field. Allen tends to throw those without enough loft. Getting a speedy receiver wouldn't necessarily fix his weakness in that area.