Receiver separation is still BAD

[DCofNC]

14 hours ago, finn said:

Lamar is less accurate than Allen even though his receivers are on the other extreme end of the separation scale. In other words, his receivers are relatively wide open and he's STILL less accurate than Allen, whose receivers get less separation than any in the league. 

 

And they think Lamar should be the MVP over Allen?

Still haven’t learned this is an entertainment league, huh?

[SoTier]

13 hours ago, Simon said:

I do not believe for a second that whoever made this mess had the slightest clue what the hell they were looking at.

 

You have two different QB's listed for both Carolina and Indianapolis.

In both cases they are somehow on opposite ends of the separation spectrum?

With the same receivers?

 

Bo Nix, Justin Fields and Will Levis are all more accurate than Josh Allen? 

 

The entire thing is patently ridiculous.

 

The problem isn't the graph.   If you wish to evaluate the Bills' WR separation after the Amari Cooper trade, then use the graph of the Bills' WR separation data from weeks 1-6 and the same graph with data for weeks 7-8.   Any type of graph or table based on data from weeks 1-8 won't tell you what you're trying to find out.

 

11 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

Shakir is the best receiver we have ever had by catch percentage... his ability in this area is simply uncanny. Normally HBs and TEs dominate this stat, but Shakir is like a Hoover vacuum. 86.7% last year and 94.7% this year for catch percentage is outer worldly! Separation, shmeparation if you can catch...

 

Sure-handedness >>> separation.

 

[Einstein]

33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Allen has 14 TDs on only 1 int and the Bills are 6-2.  when does this become a problem?

 

When we begin to play better teams.

 

We have 6 wins against teams and NONE of them have a winning record. In fact, we have one of the lowest strength-of-win percentages in the NFL.

 

 

[eball]

18 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

When we begin to play better teams.

 

We have 6 wins against teams and NONE of them have a winning record. In fact, we have one of the lowest strength-of-win percentages in the NFL.

 

 

That's a little disingenuous.  Arizona and Seattle are 4-4.  It's not the Bills' fault the Jets and Fish have underperformed, and at the time they played the Titans Tennessee had the best pass defense in the league.

 

This separation crap is totally overblown.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

That's a little disingenuous.  Arizona and Seattle are 4-4.  It's not the Bills' fault the Jets and Fish have underperformed, and at the time they played the Titans Tennessee had the best pass defense in the league.

 

This separation crap is totally overblown.

 

The dolphins team we beat is pretty good…its completely ridiculous our dolphins win is getting talked about like it wasn’t quality because they lost their starting qb for a bunch of games that followed 

 

Arizona and Seattle are def getting slept on they’d be 5-3 if they beat us.  Can’t count the bills win against a team against the bills 🤣

 

jets aren’t good for sure but they’ve been pretty snakebit in close games and ended up losing close ones to a couple surprisingly good teams Broncos Vikings bills Steelers is a pretty tough 4 game stretch.  They feel like they should be 3-5 right now to me 

 

[DapperCam]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

So if the corner plays off coverage, does that count as “separation?” 
 

what if the receiver has separation at some point in the route but not at another point? 
 

this stat seems so fishy. 
 

What happens if the scheme has a lot of throws to wide open players in the flat? Ravens run a lot of plays like that. Doesn’t mean guys are getting open downfield necessarily.

[Don Otreply]

Winning by three TDs says that this is not a pressing issue, 

[hondo in seattle]

This is another one of those charts that look professional and pretty.  But those qualities don't mean the data are worth a damn.

 

I don't disagree with the general notion that our receivers aren't creating a lot of separation, but I don't need a chart to tell me that.

PFF is one of the most respected data generators out there.  And they rated Geno above Josh last week.  The subjectivity involved in these "advanced" metrics is often too much to overcome.  

 

How do you even measure separation?  Do you measure it at the time the ball was actually thrown?  Or when it was supposed to be thrown?  If the latter, how do you know?  Do you measure & track separation only for the guy being targeted?  Or all the receivers running routes, even those whose assignment is to rub a defender or clear a zone?  

 

Let's say a receiver is well-covered at first, but later as the QB scrambles, jukes the defender out of his jock strap and scores a game-winning 80 yard TD.  Do you grade him as being covered on his initial route?  Or do you give him credit for the great work he did later?  

 

 

[Einstein]

46 minutes ago, eball said:

It's not the Bills' fault the Jets and Fish have underperformed,

 

 

No one is blaming the Bills. We are just stating facts. The receivers need to work on getting separation or games against winning teams won’t go too well.

 

We are 0-2 against winning teams.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

39 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

What happens if the scheme has a lot of throws to wide open players in the flat? Ravens run a lot of plays like that. Doesn’t mean guys are getting open downfield necessarily.

exactly. Lot of issues with this metric. 
 

I would love to hear a full explanation of it.

[GASabresIUFan]

This season Josh is completing 64.1% of his passes.  Career is 63.6%

This season his yards per attempt 7.9 (tying a career high). Career 7.3.

Yards per catch is 12.3 (tying a career high).  Career 11.5

TD per attempt 6.3%.  Career ave 5.4%

Interception rate .4%.  Career 2.3%

Adjusted Yards per attempt 8.97 (career high).  Career ave 7.28

 

Someone is getting open.

[NewEra]

48 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

What happens if the scheme has a lot of throws to wide open players in the flat? Ravens run a lot of plays like that. Doesn’t mean guys are getting open downfield necessarily.

I have no clue….but based on our separation stats and the amount of quick passes to the flats we’ve thrown to Shakir, I would think passes into the flat aren’t taken into account.  

[finn]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Still haven’t learned this is an entertainment league, huh?

If awards were openly acknowledged as entertainment-based, I'd have no problem. But it's not "two-time most entertaining player, Lamar Jackson," it's "Lamar Jackson is obviously the best quarterback. He won two MVPs!"

 

Still, I would prefer MVP and other awards to be based strictly on hard data. Wouldn't that be nice? No more Pro Bowl votes based on reputation, no more MVP based on entertainment value, no DPOY, etc., based on number of appearances on national broadcasts. 

 

While I'm in a wishing mode, how about professional, professionally trained referees? (Trained, that is, to overcome natural biases and make correct, wise calls, not trained to throw the game for whatever big-money betting interest they're associated with.)

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No one is blaming the Bills. We are just stating facts. The receivers need to work on getting separation or games against winning teams won’t go too well.

 

We are 0-2 against winning teams.

And we didn’t have a healthy Shakir for either of them.  We didn’t have Amari cooper.  

[finn]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Someone is getting open.

Someone is having a career year. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, finn said:

If awards were openly acknowledged as entertainment-based, I'd have no problem. But it's not "two-time most entertaining player, Lamar Jackson," it's "Lamar Jackson is obviously the best quarterback. He won two MVPs!"

 

Still, I would prefer MVP and other awards to be based strictly on hard data. Wouldn't that be nice? No more Pro Bowl votes based on reputation, no more MVP based on entertainment value, no DPOY, etc., based on number of appearances on national broadcasts. 

 

While I'm in a wishing mode, how about professional, professionally trained referees? (Trained, that is, to overcome natural biases and make correct, wise calls, not trained to throw the game for whatever big-money betting interest they're associated with.)

MVP is based on one thing- being the QB of a #1 seed

[Shaw66]

Some stats are performance stats. They tell how productive a player is.  Total yards, passer rating, etc.

 

Some stats are analytic stats.

They may relate to productivity, and they help coaches figure out how to make players more productive, but in and of themselves they don't tell us how good a player is.

 

However mich separation the Bills receivers have been getting, they've been productive lately.

[Einstein]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This season Josh is completing 64.1% of his passes.  

TD per attempt 6.3%.  Career ave 5.4%

Interception rate .4%.  Career 2.3%

Adjusted Yards per attempt 8.97 (career high).  Career ave 7.28

 

Someone is getting open.

 

Completing passes doesn’t mean someone had separation. Perfect example: Our first TD on Sunday was to a blanketed Coleman who made a great catch. But he had zero separation. 

 

Nearly 40% of Allen’s completed passes on Sunday were behind the LOS. 

 

Two weeks ago, nearly 70% of Allen’s completed passes were behind the LOS or within 5 yards of it.

 

Receivers are not getting separation. But Allen is making it work because he is a hall-of-fame freak of nature that we are blessed with.

Edited 5 hours ago by Einstein

[eball]

There's so much separatist talk on this board you'd think we were in 16th or 17th century England.

 

[Big Turk]

I'm guessing the Texans and Ravens games really had a large negative impact on this.  There is no way anyone objectively watching the last 2 games can say the Bills receivers had issues with separation most plays.

 

And I mean let's look at the bright side...

 

Bills have put up 30+ in 5 of the 8 games this year. Imagine what they could do if their receivers could get open.

49 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No one is blaming the Bills. We are just stating facts. The receivers need to work on getting separation or games against winning teams won’t go too well.

 

We are 0-2 against winning teams.

 

Seattle was 4-3 when we played them, or are we going to play the game of "let's pretend what happened after we played them counts"? Essentially they no longer have a "winning record" because we went into their house, punched them in the face, took their lunch money and bullied them into submission.

Edited 5 hours ago by Big Turk