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50 minutes ago, gomper said:

If this is accurate, I'm speechless. Iowa was on NOBODY'S radar, except possibly the people living there. 

Cue the election fraud play. Who knows if she wins Iowa but this is very good news. 

On 11/1/2024 at 9:34 PM, Irv said:

You watch too much of your rectum.  What a mess.  

Wrecked em?  We’re gonna destroy em. How do you think the bj ape worked with women?  Men?

Edited by Joe Ferguson forever
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1 hour ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

You've got to be kidding me.  If this poll is as accurate as its been since its inception, it's going to be an electoral college landslide victory for Harris.

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6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You've got to be kidding me.  If this poll is as accurate as its been since its inception, it's going to be an electoral college landslide victory for Harris.

 

She's typically accurate.  But the one time she flailed wildly was in the D's favor.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You've got to be kidding me.  If this poll is as accurate as its been since its inception, it's going to be an electoral college landslide victory for Harris.

Look I’m aware of bias in polling but even Rasmussen or Trafalgar would have a hard time holding their head up with such a surprising poll if it weren’t somewhat legitimate 

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It’s been fairly obvious to anyone who has been paying attention. Trump has his base. That’s it end of story. That’s not even all of the Republican Party. That’s not near enough of the independents. Maybe a 3rd of the country? People are sick of the hate and drama with trump. 

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3 hours ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

Anything provable would have to start with voter ID, or some version of verification, and by stopping that I could never have proof. 

 

You can't prove fraud unless you have voter id?  Why?  If true then why have your people posted literally of hundreds of election fraud stories (all debunked)?

 

The reality is of course you can prove fraud without voter id.  There's just no evidence of widespread fraud occurring.  Plenty of evidence of idiots presenting meaningless videos and misinterpreted statistics.  No proof that passed the vetting process.  You seem obsessed with this.  You lost.  You lost in a fair election.  

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2 hours ago, Beast said:

I’ll take the Emerson College data any day of the week.

 

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

 

Trump 53% Harris 43 %

 

Here’s more about the credibility of Emerson College data:

 

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/emerson-college-polling-bias-and-credibility/

 

 

 

These were the results of the last three elections alone with this polling company in Iowa.  I want Trump to win but it's hard to ignore how accurate this pollster was.  Selzer is really going out on a limb here and if she's right it'll be a Flippen landslide victory in the electoral college for Harris given how this translates to the blue wall states.

 

2020 Final poll: Trump 48.  Biden 41 (7 points)

Actual results:   Trump 53.  Biden 45 (8 points)

 

2016 Final poll:   Trump 46.  Hillary 39 (7 points)

Actual results:    Trump 51.  Hillary  42 (9 points)

 

2012 Final poll:  Obama 47.  Romney 42 (5 points)

Actual results:  Obama 52.  Romney 46 (6 points)

 

 

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7 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

 

You can't prove fraud unless you have voter id?  Why?  If true then why have your people posted literally of hundreds of election fraud stories (all debunked)?

 

The reality is of course you can prove fraud without voter id.  There's just no evidence of widespread fraud occurring.  Plenty of evidence of idiots presenting meaningless videos and misinterpreted statistics.  No proof that passed the vetting process.  You seem obsessed with this.  You lost.  You lost in a fair election.  

Damn your stupid, you literally cut off your answer just to be this stupid. How would you stop underage drinking without ID? You give me one effective way and I will accept your premise.

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6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

These were the results of the last three elections alone with this polling company in Iowa.  I want Trump to win but it's hard to ignore how accurate this pollster was.  Selzer is really going out on a limb here and if she's right it'll be a Flippen landslide victory in the electoral college for Harris given how this translates to the blue wall states.

 

2020 Final poll: Trump 48.  Biden 41 (7 points)

Actual results:   Trump 53.  Biden 45 (8 points)

 

2016 Final poll:   Trump 46.  Hillary 39 (7 points)

Actual results:    Trump 51.  Hillary  42 (9 points)

 

2012 Final poll:  Obama 47.  Romney 42 (5 points)

Actual results:  Obama 52.  Romney 46 (6 points)

 

 


Polymarket put Iowa on their boards to bet on because of the release of this poll. Notice that Harris’s odds are still very low in Iowa. Polymarket is looking to cash in from people that are buying into that poll thinking they’ll make big money.

 

Not going to happen. Trump is going to roll her in Iowa.

 

https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-margin-of-victory/will-the-democratic-candidate-win-iowa-by-3pt0-4pt0?tid=1730638807494

 

 

Edited by Beast
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6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

These were the results of the last three elections alone with this polling company in Iowa.  I want Trump to win but it's hard to ignore how accurate this pollster was.  Selzer is really going out on a limb here and if she's right it'll be a Flippen landslide victory in the electoral college for Harris given how this translates to the blue wall states.

 

2020 Final poll: Trump 48.  Biden 41 (7 points)

Actual results:   Trump 53.  Biden 45 (8 points)

 

2016 Final poll:   Trump 46.  Hillary 39 (7 points)

Actual results:    Trump 51.  Hillary  42 (9 points)

 

2012 Final poll:  Obama 47.  Romney 42 (5 points)

Actual results:  Obama 52.  Romney 46 (6 points)

 

 

I don’t believe that Harris winning Iowa means Texas and Florida are both flipping but it’s very telling for other reasons. Iowa is mostly white and if there’s this much movement late in Iowa, NC is definitely going to flip which would mean it’s over regardless. There were 2 waves of movement towards Harris and we’re in the middle of the 2nd one right now so it’s impossible to know just how bad this is going to be. Women were always going to decide this election.

Edited by Governor
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We've already been prepped for another election week so we know they will be trying it again.

 

Time is what is necessary to stuff the ballot boxes. How many votes are needed and how long to count them?

 

Once any fraudulent ballots are allowed into the mix then there's no way to discern them from legitimate ballots, which is the point.

 

Presumably Trump's legal team is far better prepared this time around, but we'll see.

 

If they successfully drag this out past Wednesday in swing states then it's over.

 

President Kamala.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

We've already been prepped for another election week so we know they will be trying it again.

 

Time is what is necessary to stuff the ballot boxes. How many votes are needed and how long to count them?

 

Once any fraudulent ballots are allowed into the mix then there's no way to discern them from legitimate ballots, which is the point.

 

Presumably Trump's legal team is far better prepared this time around, but we'll see.

 

If they successfully drag this out past Wednesday in swing states then it's over.

 

President Kamala.

 

 

Watch for unexplainable vote counting activity such as halting the count or restricting observers in places like Philadelphia and Detroit. And the box loads of ballots arriving in the middle of the night.

But whatever the outcome expect legal challenges everywhere and protests.

I'm expecting no clear winner in the morning and fireworks in US financial markets on Wednesday. Lots of money is going to change hands as investors don't appear to be hedged. It might be weeks or longer.

Will the chaos be bad enough for some adversary such as China to make their move on Taiwan? We'll see soon enough.

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11 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

Why would different STATES have their own rules when it comes to the FEDERAL election? Makes zero sense. We need more secure elections. All of these "irregularities" in key swing states makes people lose confidence and not believe the results. Unless they are doing something fishy then they should want the most secure election results possible so that they can't be challenged

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3 hours ago, Beast said:


Polymarket put Iowa on their boards to bet on because of the release of this poll. Notice that Harris’s odds are still very low in Iowa. Polymarket is looking to cash in from people that are buying into that poll thinking they’ll make big money.

 

Not going to happen. Trump is going to roll her in Iowa.

 

https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-margin-of-victory/will-the-democratic-candidate-win-iowa-by-3pt0-4pt0?tid=1730638807494

 

 

She's not winning Iowa but she will win MI, PA, and WI if the poll isn't off by more than 5 points.

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