Election Prediction

[Tiberius]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:18 AM, Irv said:

Would anybody be surprised if this election is not decided until six months into 2025?  This election cycle has been such a f*cking joke, there is no way it will be settled by the morning of 11/6.  The Democrats tried to run a mental incompetent to keep Obammy in power.  Then Pelosi commits a coup...to keep Obama in power.   They try to jail Trump three or four times without success.  They try to pull a fast one to get Hunter off Scot free. and watch idly as three wars start and Todd gets to have a ninth month abortion so he can compete in the NCAA swimming championships.  Then President Trump gets nearly assassinated twice by the Demented Biden White House.   How can this election end without controversy, lawsuits, another assassination attempt?  No way.  

 

Not possible.  What a mess.  

 

 

You watch too much Fox news 

[The Frankish Reich]

44 minutes ago, wnyguy said:

That may all be true except you left the cheating part out.

Thank god for the cheating part

[wnyguy]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thank god for the cheating part

At this point it's pretty much all you got. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thank god for the cheating part

I honestly think you are generally a straight shooter- why does the incompetent officials not bother you? All the purging of voter roles AFTER the election, the passwords put in CO, the MI issues? Regardless of intent it does make it much easier to cheat with some leading who can't do simple things properly.

[ChiGoose]

10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thank god for the cheating part

 

This time, when we cheat, we should probably consider some of the down ballot races.

 

It was really embarrassing that we put up this giant, intricate network involving hundreds to thousands of people and nobody thought we should cheat at the Senate and House races last time. We should make sure that's on the agenda for the next Zoom call.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, ChiGoose said:

 

This time, when we cheat, we should probably consider some of the down ballot races.

 

It was really embarrassing that we put up this giant, intricate network involving hundreds to thousands of people and nobody thought we should cheat at the Senate and House races last time. We should make sure that's on the agenda for the next Zoom call.

Consider this my RSVP

[wnyguy]

5 minutes ago, ChiGoose said:

 

This time, when we cheat, we should probably consider some of the down ballot races.

 

It was really embarrassing that we put up this giant, intricate network involving hundreds to thousands of people and nobody thought we should cheat at the Senate and House races last time. We should make sure that's on the agenda for the next Zoom call.

 

[Starr-Bills]

Lots and lots of MAGA...

48 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

You watch too much Fox news 

It will "never' be decided for them, just like 2020. They can't even say Biden won, remember all those "Biden is president" comments. 

[BillsFanNC]

Exactly.

 

 

[BillsFanNC]

Yeah King, that is weird. Maybe we should ask the others among the 900+ sworn affidavits who witnessed all those Biden only filled in mail in ballots, with no creases and perfectly filled in circles. 

 

Maybe that's why there weren't any Biden coattails?

 

But we probably can't ask those people because they're in jail for perjury, right?

 

Then there's this...

 

Counting ballots in the wee hours of the morning when they said they stopped at 10 pm and wouldn't start until 9 or 10 am the next day?

 

Weird. 

 

Most secure election in US history though.

 

 

Edited November 1 by BillsFanNC

[L Ron Burgundy]

 

Look we got them!  Someone said so on X!!!!

 

Well, no.  0 - 10000.

 

Pasting this may show a little funny:

The claim of a "143,379 mail-in ballot dump" for Joe Biden at 3:42 a.m. on election night was debunked by multiple independent fact-checkers. This claim, which gained traction online after the 2020 presidential election, stemmed from confusion over the way vote totals were updated and reported by news agencies. Here’s what happened:

Batch Reporting of Mail-In Ballots: In states like Michigan (where this claim first appeared), large batches of mail-in and absentee ballots were processed and reported all at once, often in the early morning hours. Due to state laws, Michigan and other states could not begin processing these ballots until Election Day, resulting in delays that stretched into the early hours after the polls closed

 

Counting Transparency**: Data from election night showed that Biden received a higher proportion of mail-in ballots compared to in-person votes, a trend seen nationwide due to Democrats encouraging mail-in voting as a safer option during the pandemic. These updates appeared as large “dumps” due to reporting practices but were simply the result of processing mail-in ballots separately from in-person votes .

Eication and Clarification: Some initial data reporting errors, like a clerical mistake that temporarily added a large number of Biden votes in Michigan's Shiawassee County, were corrected in real-time and clarified. This error, once identified, was corrected within minutes, and it was noted that the reporting error did not affect the official vote count or results

4 hours ago, wnyguy said:

 

 

 

Nope.  You lose.  Again.

 

 

The claim that overseas ballots arrived "in sequence" (or with consecutive serial numbers) as evidence of fraud in the 2020 election was also debunked. This claim, often cited alongside other allegations of election irregularities, misinterprets standard procedures in how overseas and military ballots are handled, particularly in states like Georgia where these concerns were initially raised.

Here’s a breakdown of the findings:

Ballot Processing Procedures: Overseas and military ballots are typically printed and issued on demand, meaning they’re produced and numbered consecutively as they’re sent out. These ballots, especially in states with large overseas populations, often have sequential numbers because they’re processed in bulk batches. This is standard and not indicative of fraudulent activity.

.

Investigations and Recounts: In Georgia, a state that faced scrutiny for election procedures, ballots underwent multiple recounts and audits, including a hand audit of the entire vote in a statewide risk-limiting audit. No evidence of fraud, including claims about sequential overseas ballots, was found in these audits. Both state and federal election officials confirmed the legitimacy and accuracy of the results after thorough examination.

Evidence of Manipulation**: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and other oversight bodies confirmed that the 2020 election was one of the most secure in U.S. history. This finding included verifying ballot authenticity, the integrity of counting machines, and the procedural soundness of how absentee and overseas ballots were processed.

In short, sequential numbers in overseas ballots are a normal aspect of election logistics, not evidence of fraud.

 

 

 

Edited November 2 by L Ron Burgundy

[SCBills]

Whiplash stories today / Expect this from now through Election Day:

 

Tara Palmeri wrote a story that Trump’s internals have stopped the premature celebrating.  (Pushed back on harshly by Trump campaign)

 

Harris surrogate, David Plouffe states late breaking undecideds are going for Harris by double digits, citing the MSG rally. 
 

Mark Halperin comes out tonight with this…

 

 

Edited November 2 by SCBills

[Irv]

6 hours ago, Tiberius said:

You watch too much Fox news 

You watch too much of your rectum.  What a mess.  

[The Frankish Reich]

20 hours ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

I honestly think you are generally a straight shooter- why does the incompetent officials not bother you? All the purging of voter roles AFTER the election, the passwords put in CO, the MI issues? Regardless of intent it does make it much easier to cheat with some leading who can't do simple things properly.

Incompetence does bother me. I would like to see a more professional election staff in all states.

You know who's pretty good? Mr. Raffensberger in Georgia. Seriously. The guy thinks like the engineer that he is, and he seems to have efficiency and accuracy in mind. In general I think the vast majority of mistakes are caught and corrected, and that they cancel each other out on the wider stage.

With all the voter fraud talk, I always go back to the old maxim: Never assume malice where incompetence provides an adequate explanation.

[Orlando Buffalo]

13 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Incompetence does bother me. I would like to see a more professional election staff in all states.

You know who's pretty good? Mr. Raffensberger in Georgia. Seriously. The guy thinks like the engineer that he is, and he seems to have efficiency and accuracy in mind. In general I think the vast majority of mistakes are caught and corrected, and that they cancel each other out on the wider stage.

With all the voter fraud talk, I always go back to the old maxim: Never assume malice where incompetence provides an adequate explanation.

Why do you think the vast majority of problems are caught? That is a belief without any evidence. If in Michigan a Chinese kid can vote, and his vote will count, why do you believe the dishonest will be caught? That being said your praise of GA, which is similar to FL, is appropriate but why did your side call that racist a few years ago? Voter integrity hurts Dems. 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

but why did your side call that racist a few years ago?

I don't know why. There were concerns not with vote counting but with what would be called "election access." But that wasn't me.

 

1 hour ago, Orlando Buffalo said:

Why do you think the vast majority of problems are caught? That is a belief without any evidence. If in Michigan a Chinese kid can vote, and his vote will count, why do you believe the dishonest will be caught?

The burden is on the proponent of the claim, and so far virtually no such claims have been borne out following investigation.

If you want to argue that things like voting by aliens happens? Yes, that's true. It is a serious issue, and actually is a criminal offense (I've personally dealt with a few such cases over many many years.) There are also no doubt eligible voters who cannot vote because of undue restrictions. The Virginia case striking people from voter rolls in the run-up to this election is a good example. The state looked at people who identified themselves as citizens of another country on drivers license applications, some several years ago. If you're a permanent resident you are eligible to naturalize and become a citizen in 5 years, 2 if your green card is thru a U.S. citizen spouse. So you are striking some people from the rolls who naturalized in the ensuing years, without providing them adequate time to contest that decision.

 

It's not perfect, but we know one thing (as attested to by Trump's own AG): any irregularities in 2020 were clearly insufficient to change the outcome of the election. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I don't know why. There were concerns not with vote counting but with what would be called "election access." But that wasn't me.

 

The burden is on the proponent of the claim, and so far virtually no such claims have been borne out following investigation.

If you want to argue that things like voting by aliens happens? Yes, that's true. It is a serious issue, and actually is a criminal offense (I've personally dealt with a few such cases over many many years.) There are also no doubt eligible voters who cannot vote because of undue restrictions. The Virginia case striking people from voter rolls in the run-up to this election is a good example. The state looked at people who identified themselves as citizens of another country on drivers license applications, some several years ago. If you're a permanent resident you are eligible to naturalize and become a citizen in 5 years, 2 if your green card is thru a U.S. citizen spouse. So you are striking some people from the rolls who naturalized in the ensuing years, without providing them adequate time to contest that decision.

 

It's not perfect, but we know one thing (as attested to by Trump's own AG): any irregularities in 2020 were clearly insufficient to change the outcome of the election. 

Anything provable would have to start with voter ID, or some version of verification, and by stopping that I could never have proof. It is be like stating no one under 21 drinks without requiring ID. That is a federal crime to sell to kids  but somehow kids do it all the time. Your instance of a proper voter being struck would be much easier to deal with properly if we had correct voter rolls to begin with, the incompetence I decry is much more prolific than yours. One of my coworkers and her husband became citizens this summer and are voting without issue, but of course FL has a proper plan.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

Iowa is in play

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

[gomper]

12 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

Iowa is in play

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

If this is accurate, I'm speechless. Iowa was on NOBODY'S radar, except possibly the people living there. 

[4th&long]

5 minutes ago, gomper said:

If this is accurate, I'm speechless. Iowa was on NOBODY'S radar, except possibly the people living there. 

Oh it be true.