The MVP Race is 3 Players & Why they Can Win

[Process]

2 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Is Sunday the day Allen vaults himself back to the top of the MVP race?  Lamar’s been playing great in recent weeks and currently the favorite, but beating the undefeated Chiefs should count for something, right?

This week will be big for sure. If Steelers beat Baltimore they will have a good chance to win the division which would eliminate Lamar. And yeah Josh beating KC would give him a big time win. 

 

Voters will definitely bend the rules for Lamar but I don't know if they can get away with giving him MVP if they don't win the division. 

[Sojourner]

On 10/22/2024 at 11:13 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Allen is playing too good for Lamar not to get MVP #3.

 

In all seriousness, Lamar is having an outstanding season. I don’t think Allen has much of a shot.

Pretty much with you on this Andy. I think even if our Bills end up with the 1 seed, Josh doesn’t win. 
 

If they gave it to Lamar last year when Josh clearly had the better statistical performance other than rushing yards then he has pretty much no shot like you said. Especially when you’re factoring in Lamar is going to eclipse his performance on pretty much everything from last season. 
 

 

[DapperCam]

If Lamar has a mediocre game vs the Steelers and Allen has a great game vs KC, then their odds would basically be even at that point, probably even slightly in Allen’s favor. Lamar would still have better stats, but the Ravens would be unlikely to win their division.

 

Ravens have a pretty tough schedule to close out the year. I could see Jackson’s numbers dipping a bit. As of now though it’s his to lose.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Is Sunday the day Allen vaults himself back to the top of the MVP race?  Lamar’s been playing great in recent weeks and currently the favorite, but beating the undefeated Chiefs should count for something, right?

That's when the narrative will switch to "well KC really hasn't been playing that great. They're just getting lucky"

[BigAl2526]

I think Mahomes is probably out of the running given that he's been having a sub-par year and most credit the KC defense with their unbeaten record this season.  I agree that Jackson and Henry are probably Josh Allen's main competition, but there may be some dark horses like Jayden Daniels of Washington

[julian]

Has a wildcard team ever had an MVP ? How in the world could you possibly give the MVP to the 5 seed after you’ve been telling everyone for years it’s not just about stats, it’s also about winning.

[TheBrownBear]

Lamar is killing it this year.  Even if they don't win the division he deserves it as of today.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

15 minutes ago, julian said:

Has a wildcard team ever had an MVP ? How in the world could you possibly give the MVP to the 5 seed after you’ve been telling everyone for years it’s not just about stats, it’s also about winning.

If it gets to that point, totally agree with that.  Not to mention, Lamar gets to team up with HOF RB this season too, which adds another dimension to their attack.  Same reason the Brock Purdy MVP discussion was ridiculous.  When CMC is around, what do you know, Purdy appears to be way more effective.

[DrMaxPower]

Unless things really change, Josh doesn't have a realistic chance.

 

Lamar is playing lights out and running away with it. The antithesis of last year.

 

Lamar/Baltimore would need to hit the skids and Josh would have to crank up the production. I just don't see it.

Edited Wednesday at 09:42 PM by DrMaxPower

[folz]

A quick glance at where we are.

 

I too do not put much into the whole MVP thing. Especially after last year. Picking Lamar over Josh was a joke. But this year is a different story, unless you say Jackson/Henry cancel themselves out being on the same team. [If there are two MVPs on one team, then neither is really the most valuable player to their team, because they are of equal value, and obviously help each other out.] Or, as others said, if Baltimore fades a bit and doesn't win the division (ends up a wild card). MVP usually goes to a player on one of the best teams. But, stat-wise at least, Jackson is ahead of Josh this year. 

 

Derrick Henry (team record: 7-3, 2nd in AFC North)

1,216 yards from scrimmage with 14 TDs

[projected: 2,067 yards from scrimmage and 24 TDs---averaging 122 yards/game at 6.1 yards/clip.]

 

Lamar Jackson (team record: 7-3, 2nd in AFC North)

3,207 yards from scrimmage with 26 TDs and 2 INTs. two game-winning drives. Rating of 123.2. QBR: 76.9.

 

Josh Allen (team record: 8-2, first in AFC East)

2,542 yards from scrimmage with 21 TDs and 4 INTs. two game-winning drives. Rating of 100.2; QBR: 70.3

 

Patrick Mahomes (team record 9-0, first in AFC West)

2,375 yards from scrimmage with 13 TDs and 9 INTs. four game-winning drives. Rating of 90.3; QBR 67.7

 

 

Has a new candidate entered the conversation, though? Heck, I might just give the MVP to Saquon Barkley for that one play against Jacksonville. And his numbers are actually on par with King Henry:

 

Saquon Barkley (team record: 7-2, first in NFC East)

1,149 yards from scrimmage with 8 TDs

[projected: 2,170 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs---averaging 128 yards/game at 5.8 yards/clip.]

 

 

Of course, per the current odds (odds-makers), there are only QBs in the top 10 (no RBs). So, maybe Henry and Barkley are already out due to position basically. Before last week, the odds were even for Lamar and Josh. But, after Lamar's 14-point (4-TD) comeback last week, he took over first place with the odds-makers (Josh in 2nd, Mahomes in 3rd). So, a big win vs. the Chiefs (if Lamar doesn't also have an outstanding game vs. the Steelers) could definitely help Josh. Two big games this week (Bills/Chiefs; Balt/Pitt).

 

[Josh also does have the idea that the Bills were going to take a step back this year and he had no WRs after Diggs and Davis left going in his favor. Josh had better stats than Lamar last year, so maybe Josh could still win it this year with not as good of stats as Lamar based on perception---and how the next handful of games play out. I mean, Jackson got Henry this year, while Josh was supposedly losing his help/targets. Who knows how these voters think.]

 

 

And then again, who cares about MVPs at this point. Lamar could win a third MVP and I'd still never trade Josh for him, nor do I think most GMs or coaches would. That pretty much says it all, imo.

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 10/22/2024 at 10:09 PM, Wizard said:

There are only 3 real MVP candidates, but there is still a lot of football left.

 

Derrick Henry:  He is averaging more than a 150 per game. Best RB thus far and really adds an entire dimension that most teams can't slow down. Big games against our Bills and Tampa Bay. If he nears 2000 yards, helps Baltimore secure a top 3 AFC record, and he has nearly 20 touchdowns, these are insane numbers in a very pass-oriented NFL. He is the best non QB in the league right now, and it's not that close.

 

Josh Allen: His improvement on turnovers, working well with a new receivers, and his ability to take over a game with run also is what makes him a top 3 QB. He should pile enough wins to compete for a top 3 record, and if he can get 30 passing TD's, under 9 ints, and have nearly 10 rushing TD's, he is going to be hard to turn down. Needs a big game against Chiefs or another Top 10 team where "Super Josh" takes over.

 

Lamar Jackson: Ravens are likely the best team in AFC. Huge wins against Buffalo and a 5 TD performance on Monday Night boosted his stock too. If he is top 3 in passing TD's, QBR, and he has a top 2-3 record, he may win his 3rd.

 

Prediction of MCP

I believe Henry and Jackson will still put up massive numbers and could win, but they will drown each other out when it comes to voting with Henry finishing 2nd and Hackson in 3rd.

 

I see Henry getting OPOY, Jackson being a top 3 finisher, and Allen finishing with nearly 4,100 yards, 30 TD's, 8 INT, and 500 yards rushing with 8 rushing TD's

 

They will give it to Lamar no matter what. Look get used to the fact Allen will never be MVP. Those that are still pissed he wasn't a flop are going to die on that hill and find reasons not to vote for him.

 

Also, Allen doesn't put up good enough stats and won't with McDermott as HC.  He needs an offensive HC that helps him put up a 5000k season, over 70% completion percentage, 45+ passing TD's with <10 int's.  And he better be leading the league in some of those stats.

[thronethinker]

Having 2 MVP candidates on one team tells me right there that they are not legit MVP candidates. MVP is the single most important player to the team and the team will not be a viable contender without that player. Can you say that about the two on Baltimore?

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Lamar is killing it this year.  Even if they don't win the division he deserves it as of today.  

I saw a post on twitter after last week about how he's already passed all his stats from last year which is basically why the MVP voting is a joke.

 

This year, he should be the frontrunner even though his team isn't great (other than Henry).  Last year, he won it because his team was great, #1 seed and did very little to impress (unless you are only watching the highlight reels which I'm guessing is how most voters vote).

Edited Wednesday at 10:25 PM by The Wiz

[TheFunPolice]

Lamar is the clear MVP in my book so far, with Allen just behind him. 

 

Nobody else is even close. 

 

That includes Jordan "take 3 quarters off then just start chucking prayer moonballs into triple coverage that somehow your WR always catch and end up with 350+ yards" Love 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Lamar is killing it this year.  Even if they don't win the division he deserves it as of today.  

I would agree but Josh must play well this Sunday or he is out of the running. His first 2 int's were obviously not his fault but last week was ugly. Getting close to that #1 seed would help his chances.  But he needs a 3 or 4 td game badly.

[BullBuchanan]

If McCaffery didn't get a single vote last year, Henry has absolutely no shot. MVP = QB on the Team with one of the top 2 records in the league from here on out.

[Mikie2times]

INT's are the reason Allen has never won it.  I went back about 20 years and couldn't find one MVP QB with a PASSING TD to INT ratio worse than 3 to 1.  Brett Favre was the last one and it was barely under 3-1. That happened in 1997.  In 2020 Allen achieved this and it was certainly an MVP quality season but Aaron Rogers put up a mind numbing 48 TD to 5 INT's. Which is just dumb. Last year Josh wasn't even a 2-1 TD to INT ratio. I'm not here to argue if this is fair or makes sense but it's obvious as to why. That is a huge criteria voters look at for this award. 

 

As far as this year, it's looking like it could be an MVP caliber season but he is going up against a player who is playing better. At the very least, better based on the criteria we often see. Jackson is having a Aaron Rogers 2020 type year. 

 

Jackson: 24 TD and 2 INT, 538 Rushing yards 2 TD's

Allen: 17 TD to 4 INT , 251 Rushing yards and 4 TD's

 

 

[KingBoots8]

Only MVP to worry about is awarded on 2/9/2025. That’s the one I want Josh to win 🥇 

[Savage]

14 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

INT's are the reason Allen has never won it.  I went back about 20 years and couldn't find one MVP QB with a PASSING TD to INT ratio worse than 3 to 1.  Brett Favre was the last one and it was barely under 3-1. That happened in 1997.  In 2020 Allen achieved this and it was certainly an MVP quality season but Aaron Rogers put up a mind numbing 48 TD to 5 INT's. Which is just dumb. Last year Josh wasn't even a 2-1 TD to INT ratio. I'm not here to argue if this is fair or makes sense but it's obvious as to why. That is a huge criteria voters look at for this award. 

 

As far as this year, it's looking like it could be an MVP caliber season but he is going up against a player who is playing better. At the very least, better based on the criteria we often see. Jackson is having a Aaron Rogers 2020 type year. 

 

Jackson: 24 TD and 2 INT, 538 Rushing yards 2 TD's

Allen: 17 TD to 4 INT , 251 Rushing yards and 4 TD's

 

 

JA 17 will never win MVP, unless his team wins the SB.

 

I love JA17, but too many stupid mistakes, at the worst possible times.

 

When he’s on, he’s on, but when his head is up his ass, forget it.

 

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, DapperCam said:

If Lamar has a mediocre game vs the Steelers and Allen has a great game vs KC, then their odds would basically be even at that point, probably even slightly in Allen’s favor. Lamar would still have better stats, but the Ravens would be unlikely to win their division.

 

Ravens have a pretty tough schedule to close out the year. I could see Jackson’s numbers dipping a bit. As of now though it’s his to lose.

Lamar could lose votes to Henry similar to what happened to CMac and Purdy last season. Considering most preseason writers felt this was going to be an off year Allen might get a serious shot if we get a top 2 seed in Conference and McDermott might be in COY discussion along with Dan Campbell and Kevin O'Connell.