The MVP Race is 3 Players & Why they Can Win

[strive_for_five_guy]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Based on the vibe from the national morning sports shows so far, it's back to being Allen's MVP to lose.  It's probably a combo of:

 

1) Mahomes having a very average season for him,,  Chiefs fatigue (and the Bills beating them head to head)

2) Lamar/Ravens have 4 losses.  Lost to KC and rival Pitt.  To me, Lamar is having a better season than last year but the voters have given him two MVP's already and he's been a playoff letdown.  So he would have to do way more than anyone to win again and he may not even win his division.

3) Goff- For whatever reason, he's not getting the MVP momentum maybe he deserves.  It could be the 5 int game. Maybe because Detroit has great playmakers and media thinks they would be good regardless. Goff doesn't have the splash running ability so he needs to be judged purely on passing.

4) Hurts, Murray, Herbert, etc..  Long odds

 

The general feeling i get is that media wants Allen to win it this year.  It's possible that it's finally an appreciation of his numbers over the past 5 years, and his great playoff numbers.... even against KC (in losses).  I've heard a few TV guys mention that without Allen, the Bills would be hurt more than the other big playoff teams.  He means that much.  So if Josh can avoid another Houston game.. and just continue to put up his numbers, i think he might win it even with the #2 seed.

Win on SNF against San Fran, and then in the huge game against Detroit, it’d be hard for him not to win it almost regardless of his numbers those games.  Yes, probably need to win a few of the other games (Rams, Pats x2, Jets), but a primetime win against 49ers and then beating the Lions would be huge resume builders/clinchers.  Wins, the corresponding media narrative and recency bias all play into the vote that happens right after Week 17.

[stevewin]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Don't forget Lamar won it last year over Josh in large part because of the team record (Josh had the better stats).  So having Josh get it this year with the same reasoning would be just.  Also, this year Lamar's team has D Henry on it, that makes a QB's life a lot easier.

Yep - ironically losing Diggs did a lot to help Josh's MVP case - doing more with less, spreading ball around, everybody eats etc

[zow2]

Emmanuel Acho is one of the MVP voters.  He said on his show a few mins ago that Josh is now the frontrunner.  He explained it's not only what Josh is doing this season...but who he is doing it with.  Acho and James Jones have said the Ravens and Lions have a better supporting cast than Allen does.

[Warcodered]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Well it's not like Skip had anything better to do this year.

[HappyDays]

Orlovsky is doing it better than any analyst out there. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Lamar has much better pure stats right now, so how does Josh win it?

 

More game winners like this,hehas to put up more passing TD's and his current 4 game streak of picks needs to end.  IF he can be the reason we go into Detroit and beat them, then rip off 3 high stat games the end of the season, he has a chance.

[Process]

2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Lamar has much better pure stats right now, so how does Josh win it?

 

More game winners like this,hehas to put up more passing TD's and his current 4 game streak of picks needs to end.  IF he can be the reason we go into Detroit and beat them, then rip off 3 high stat games the end of the season, he has a chance.

If Ravens don't win the division, Lamar is disqualified. Not even on the ballot. Doesn't matter if he has 60 TDs.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Just now, Process said:

If Ravens don't win the division, Lamar is disqualified. Not even in the ballot. Doesn't matter if he has 60 TDs.

I would like to agree with you, but it's Lamar and he/ mahomes are the media darlings.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Emmanuel Acho is one of the MVP voters.  He said on his show a few mins ago that Josh is now the frontrunner.  He explained it's not only what Josh is doing this season...but who he is doing it with.  Acho and James Jones have said the Ravens and Lions have a better supporting cast than Allen does.

Acho also believed that Allen will have a down year  at the beginning of the season. 

[DapperCam]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

If Ravens don't win the division, Lamar is disqualified. Not even on the ballot. Doesn't matter if he has 60 TDs.

Non-division winner have gotten MVP in the past it wouldn’t be unprecedented.

 

It would fly in the face of the logic they used last season though.

[Process]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

I would like to agree with you, but it's Lamar and he/ mahomes are the media darlings.

Yes that's obvious. They will always bend the rules for Lamar as much as they can, but that's where the line is IMO. They can't get away with giving it to someone on a wildcard team. 

2 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Non-division winner have gotten MVP in the past it wouldn’t be unprecedented.

 

It would fly in the face of the logic they used last season though.

Hasn't it been like 20 straight years where the MVP was either the 1 or 2 seed? It would be unpreventable in recent history not just last year. 

[DapperCam]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

Hasn't it been like 20 straight years where the MVP was either the 1 or 2 seed? It would be unpreventable in recent history not just last year. 

Adrian Peterson was 2012, and then before that Peyton Manning was 2008. Both were Wild Cards. It’s been a while, but not ancient history.

[Process]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

Adrian Peterson was 2012, and then before that Peyton Manning was 2008. Both were Wild Cards. It’s been a while, but not ancient history.

Ah okay, thanks, I must have misremembered something I saw. 

 

Regardless though, it's looking like the Ravens will finish with 10-11 wins, and that there will be several 13+ win teams this year. There's no way IMO, especially with losses to Cleveland and Vegas on the resume. But I guess you never know with the media. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

22 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Lamar has much better pure stats right now, so how does Josh win it?

 

More game winners like this,hehas to put up more passing TD's and his current 4 game streak of picks needs to end.  IF he can be the reason we go into Detroit and beat them, then rip off 3 high stat games the end of the season, he has a chance.

He has more than a chance.  If the vote were today, Josh wins it.  All the Lamar talk is way quieter after yesterday.  If Josh keeps winning, I don’t think he even needs many more high stat games to win MVP.

[billieve420]

23 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Lamar has much better pure stats right now, so how does Josh win it?

 

More game winners like this,hehas to put up more passing TD's and his current 4 game streak of picks needs to end.  IF he can be the reason we go into Detroit and beat them, then rip off 3 high stat games the end of the season, he has a chance.

 

Don't think Josh will need to have outright better stats than Lamar but just be close enough. If Bills take care what they need to and finish with the #2 seed or higher can't see them handing MVP to Lamar again especially with all the talk about Lamar not performing in the post season. 

[DapperCam]

5 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

Don't think Josh will need to have outright better stats than Lamar but just be close enough. If Bills take care what they need to and finish with the #2 seed or higher can't see them handing MVP to Lamar again especially with all the talk about Lamar not performing in the post season. 

Allen had like 15 more TDs than Lamar last year. History tells us the stats don’t have to be that close if they apply the same logic.

[BuffaloBill]

If Josh wins the Lombardi this year - Let Lamar have the 3rd MVP. 

[Malazan]

59 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Lamar has much better pure stats right now, so how does Josh win it?

 

More game winners like this,hehas to put up more passing TD's and his current 4 game streak of picks needs to end.  IF he can be the reason we go into Detroit and beat them, then rip off 3 high stat games the end of the season, he has a chance.

 

It's exceedingly rare that a MVP comes from a team that doesn't win their division.

 

Lombardi is all that really matters.

Edited November 18 by Malazan

[folz]

49 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I would like to agree with you, but it's Lamar and he/ mahomes are the media darlings.

 

I still have a hard time understanding this (like from a psychological perspective). Not that Lamar is a media darling (he is a special player, no doubt), but that he is and has been from the end of his rookie year, and yet Josh is just getting there in year 7 (as far as the media goes).

 

We usually say with Josh that all the people who said he'd be a bust just didn't want to be proven wrong. But, Lamar was doubted just as much as Josh leading into that draft. Heck, many people didn't even think he should be a QB, but rather transfer to another position (WR or whatever). And he was picked, what, 19 spots lower than Josh? Most of the people who were doubting Josh were also doubting Lamar.

 

Now, no question, Lamar's running was dynamic to see when he first got to the league. And Josh was raw. But the big knock on Josh was his completion percentage. Yet Lamar had only a 57% completion percentage in college and a 58% completion percentage his rookie year.

 

Josh was basically considered a bust by most media after year two, while Lamar was winning an MVP (deservedly so in that year, imo). Josh started winning some supporters in year three, but Lamar was already crowned.

 

Yet their stats for their 1st three years in the league were:

Josh: 11,269 total yards    92 total TDs     31 INTs

Lamar: 9,991 total yards   87 total TDs     18 INTs

 

Yes, Josh was throwing 4 more INTs per season, but are those stats so different for one to be an MVP and the other considered a bust?

 

Is it just because in 2018 (the first year starting for Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson) the Bills were in a total rebuild and purging year (going 6-10), while the Chiefs (riding their previous playoff seasons) made the AFC Championship game with a 12-4 record and the Ravens made the playoffs at 10-6 (losing in the Wild Card round)? Was it just first impressions? Josh playing for a bad team (and being a bit more raw) looked worse initially than the other two who walked into already established and stable  winning organizations? But, why would anyone still hold on to that after watching Josh have multiple elite seasons (starting in year three)?

 

To be clear, this isn't an anti-Mahomes or anti-Jackson post. They are both great players and deserve the accolades they get. I'm still just trying to figure out why the media has been so anti-Josh for most of his career, especially when he is such a likable and humble dude.

 

Were people just holding on to the pre-draft BS story about teenage Josh posting something racist? Shouldn't the fact that every teammate (except maybe Diggs at the end) has loved playing with Josh have dispelled that? It's just so hard for me to find a logical reason. No other elite QB in the history of the NFL has had to wait so long for his laurels (including guys that never won a Super Bowl). I mean, QBs are often defined by the big moments (playoff games, coming through in the clutch, etc.) So yes, obviously Mahomes has made and won a bunch of SBs...so his legacy is already set. But Lamar hasn't made a Super Bowl appearance either (like Josh). Lamar and Josh both have one AFC Championship appearance. Lamar is 2-4 in the playoffs and hasn't really played well overall in the playoffs, while Josh is 5-5 in the playoffs and has played every bit as good as Mahomes in the postseason, just not getting the same team results obviously.

 

Who cares about the MVP really, but I just don't get the gulf in perception from the media regarding Allen and Jackson over the last 6-7 years...and maybe I never will.

[Chugga]

Like a few people have posted up above.  I agree that it is a 3 person race and you can’t count out the fact that Lamar is statistically having the best season of his career (which is crazy considering he’s already won two MVPs) but the biggest knock against Lamar this year is the same thing that’s helping him have these numbers.  Derrick Henry.

 

Logistically the math isn’t mathing if you’re an MVP voter.

 

How can you be the leagues most valuable player when your teammate is also in the running.  It significantly waters down your own value.

 

Henry is having an MVP season because teams have to account for Lamar.  Lamar is having an MVP season because teams have to account for Henry.

 

Josh is having an MVP season because he’s playing like Josh ******* Allen