Scripted play analysis Daboll v. Dorsey v. Brady (The Court Case of the Millenium) Part Deux

[Malazan]

I'd rather have a functioning running game and have to 'figure out' how to get Allen going earlier in games than have no running game and constantly requiring designed runs from Allen to move the chains.

[fergie's ire]

I also think Brady scripts plays for a different reason.  Dorsey and Dabol were focused on what WE do well in order to maximize our chance of scoring.  Brady seems to want to use the first drive or two to figure out what THEY are doing in order to have success throughout the game.  When he first took over I remember him starting the game with that terrible screen pass to Diggs that never worked but it showed how they were defending Diggs and helped him set up plays to take advantage of that defense.

[Mr. WEO]

17 hours ago, Draconator said:

How is Daboll with the Giants?

 

He's one Josh Allen short of being a potentially decent NFL HC.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I also think Brady scripts plays for a different reason.  Dorsey and Dabol were focused on what WE do well in order to maximize our chance of scoring.  Brady seems to want to use the first drive or two to figure out what THEY are doing in order to have success throughout the game.  When he first took over I remember him starting the game with that terrible screen pass to Diggs that never worked but it showed how they were defending Diggs and helped him set up plays to take advantage of that defense.

 

I agree with this. I think his first 15 is ALL about setting stuff up for later / trying to force the D to show its hand. I'm fine with some of that but the balance feels off. It should be the time of the game you can take advantage of a D on its heels.

[Don Otreply]

20 hours ago, FireChans said:

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.

 

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.

 

Daboll:

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

Dorsey:

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  4/10 - Dorsey fired

 

Brady

 

2023:  2/7  - Brady took over after Broncos

 

2024: 3/7 - so far

 

So really when you look at the numbers:

 

Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%

 

Dorsey - 38%

 

Brady - 35.7%

 

So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.

 

Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.

 

IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching.  Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)

 

2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)

2024: 3/6

 

Reid: 45%

 

So what say you?

The end result is that Brady is 5-2 this year, ( 6-1 last season) 11-3 overall, it appears he is cognizant of his shortcomings and adjusting, albeit to slowly during games, and with some success, admittedly his scripted plays at the beginning of games leaves much to be desired, I think he will adjust appropriately, jmo. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just mentioned this in another thread and thought I’d throw it in here too…we’re 2nd in offensive dvoa after the titans game just ahead of Washington and Detroit but wayyy behind baltimore.  Last year we were third 

 

offense has been so hard to evaluate

this year because there’s so many objectively bad teams that have good defenses where it just feels like the offense is underperforming against a bad team 

 

 

Edited October 22 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Low Positive]

17 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Personnel not withstanding, I do miss Daboll's Jet Sweep plays.

 

 

I love plays when the misdirection is so good that it fools the cameraman. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

The end result is that Brady is 5-2 this year, ( 6-1 last season) 11-3 overall, it appears he is cognizant of his shortcomings and adjusting, albeit to slowly during games, and with some success, admittedly his scripted plays at the beginning of games leaves much to be desired, I think he will adjust appropriately, jmo. 

The Bills are 5-2 this year lol. 
 

I accept HC win totals and QB win totals. I draw the line at OC win totals.

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with this. I think his first 15 is ALL about setting stuff up for later / trying to force the D to show its hand. I'm fine with some of that but the balance feels off. It should be the time of the game you can take advantage of a D on its heels.

It should also be the time to end the game imo. Scoring twice in the first Q last week ends the game instantly. 
 

They ended up running away with it, but when you are playing bad team, you truly can win in the first Q. 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The Bills are 5-2 this year lol. 
 

I accept HC win totals and QB win totals. I draw the line at OC win totals.

It should also be the time to end the game imo. Scoring twice in the first Q last week ends the game instantly. 
 

They ended up running away with it, but when you are playing bad team, you truly can win in the first Q. 

Well, he is an important part of the team, so…, how the hell else do you judge the overall body of work of an OC, not just the minutiae, but overall?  Win loss after all is the most important stat, 

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Well, he is an important part of the team, so…, how the hell else do you judge the overall body of work of an OC, not just the minutiae, but overall?  Win loss after all is the most important stat, 

I can think of lots of different ways to evaluate the OC without touching W/L.

 

take it a step further. Damar Hamlin has been excellent because we are 5-2. Tyler Bass has been excellent because we are 5-2. 
 

See how silly that is lol

[colin]

brady is better at how the offense is executed consistently (so far) vs daboll, mainly because of the run game and getting production out of backs and tes.  daboll was better at just calling plays. he'd drive me insane with his like random set of seemingly unrelated formations and plays, but they were effective and lead to a lot of scoring and efficiency.

 

talent differences matter tho, if anything you have to say daboll was better so far than brady, because his teams produced some crazy offensive numbers in the playoffs.

 

if brady can figure out the first half of games, and get us 2 or more playoff wins, then at that point you give him the edge of daboll.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

I can think of lots of different ways to evaluate the OC without touching W/L.

 

take it a step further. Damar Hamlin has been excellent because we are 5-2. Tyler Bass has been excellent because we are 5-2. 
 

See how silly that is lol

That’s really a poor equivalency, and frankly incredibly silly, 😁, Brady schemes the entire offense, players do their 1/11th, quite a difference don’t you think ? 
 

Think of like this;

Mozart writes the symphony, the musicians play their individual parts…,  who gets the credit, Mozart or the violinist? 
 

Does Joe Brady need to be better at his job? Yes he does, but he still in effect writes the symphony for the offense, we just refer to it in football as his scheme,