Scripted play analysis Daboll v. Dorsey v. Brady (The Court Case of the Millenium) Part Deux

[FireChans]

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.

 

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.

 

Daboll:

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

Dorsey:

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  4/10 - Dorsey fired

 

Brady

 

2023:  2/7  - Brady took over after Broncos

 

2024: 3/7 - so far

 

So really when you look at the numbers:

 

Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%

 

Dorsey - 38%

 

Brady - 35.7%

 

So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.

 

Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.

 

IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching.  Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)

 

2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)

2024: 3/6

 

Reid: 45%

 

So what say you?

[strive_for_five_guy]

And yet we are still one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and just added Cooper to the mix this past week.  Brady need to go more off-script then?  He must be scoring fine in other parts of the game, if not scoring as much early on.

[dorquemada]

Coming out flat will doom this team when we're playing >.500 opponents.  Why even script the plays if they're so utterly predictable?  It just doesn't make sense. Every single one of us knew what plays they were going to run those first few drives.

[NickelCity]

It's a good topic. The dropoff from Daboll in this regard is very noticable. Tough to discern coaching from execution but the %s make a decent case.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.

 

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.

 

Daboll:

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

Dorsey:

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  4/10 - Dorsey fired

 

Brady

 

2023:  2/7  - Brady took over after Broncos

 

2024: 3/7 - so far

 

So really when you look at the numbers:

 

Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%

 

Dorsey - 38%

 

Brady - 35.7%

 

So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.

 

Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.

 

IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching.  Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)

 

2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)

2024: 3/6

 

Reid: 45%

 

So what say you?

I think you’re making too big of a deal out of scripted drives.  

[Draconator]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.

 

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.

 

Daboll:

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

Dorsey:

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  4/10 - Dorsey fired

 

Brady

 

2023:  2/7  - Brady took over after Broncos

 

2024: 3/7 - so far

 

So really when you look at the numbers:

 

Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%

 

Dorsey - 38%

 

Brady - 35.7%

 

So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.

 

Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.

 

IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching.  Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)

 

2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)

2024: 3/6

 

Reid: 45%

 

So what say you?

How is Daboll with the Giants?

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

It's a good topic. The dropoff from Daboll in this regard is very noticable. Tough to discern coaching from execution but the %s make a decent case.

Also talent… it’s probably easier to script when you have Diggs, Sanders, Davis and Beasley as your WR’s in 2021 than it is with Hollins, Shakir, Samuel in Coleman in 2024.

 

To your point on execution.  Brady dialed up a perfect call on 3rd down to his best receiver who got wide open but he simply dropped the football.  That’s an example of an unsuccessful drive that would go against the OC in this metric - despite him not really having an involvement.  

[NickelCity]

Just now, JohnNord said:

Also talent… it’s probably easier to script when you have Diggs, Sanders, Davis and Beasley as your WR’s in 2021 than it is with Hollins, Shakir, Samuel in Coleman in 2024.

 

For sure. I meant to imply the offensive talent imbalance with my execution statement, but glad you pointed it out. 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I think you’re making too big of a deal out of scripted drives.  

Go on…..

6 minutes ago, Draconator said:

How is Daboll with the Giants?

I don’t know. Probably not great.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Somehow Daboll is the most overrated bills employee being discussed this year despite being gone a couple years 😂

 

the guy had limited cap concerns for his gm building the offense, no previous 5 year period of the team being dominant causing parity to throw talent acquisition for a loop, absolute prime Stefon Diggs, and still made as many boneheaded, bizarre playcalling decisions as anyone we’ve had since.  
 

there’s little doubt in my mind he’d be performing the same or worse at oc for us if we swapped him in for Brady 

 

Edited October 21 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Peace Frog]

Personnel not withstanding, I do miss Daboll's Jet Sweep plays.

 

 

[NewEra]

Obviously-  

 

Our offense has been terrible in the first qtr all season.  
 

As of now, Brady and Babich are both very slow starters but very good at adapting.  If they can figure out a way to start better, we’ll be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.  

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Need one of these for the defense.

[Livinginthepast]

I miss Daboll challenging our offense with complicated plays and deceiving defenses with motion. I also miss the gadget plays because our offense in 2020 and 2021 was so good at executing them. Our offense under Daboll was so fun to watch but Dorsey was painful. Brady is inbetween but has had some Dorsey moments already this year.

[MJS]

Personnel changes is another factor. It's not all coaching.

 

Also, I guess if I could choose a quarter to be bad at, it would be the 1st quarter. I remember the 2nd and 3rd quarter lulls in the Daboll years. Those were rough.

 

At least we've always been good in the 4th quarter. That's the most important one.

[Dick_Cheney]

4 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

And yet we are still one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and just added Cooper to the mix this past week.  Brady need to go more off-script then?  He must be scoring fine in other parts of the game, if not scoring as much early on.

Just imagine if we knew how to play 4 full quarters. The second half comeback isn't gonna work against top tier teams, especially in the playoffs.

 

It should be a major point of concern, but I'm really not sure what the solution is. Maybe come up with the scripted plays like usual and then decide to do literally anything but that.

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Also talent… it’s probably easier to script when you have Diggs, Sanders, Davis and Beasley as your WR’s in 2021 than it is with Hollins, Shakir, Samuel in Coleman in 2024.

 

To your point on execution.  Brady dialed up a perfect call on 3rd down to his best receiver who got wide open but he simply dropped the football.  That’s an example of an unsuccessful drive that would go against the OC in this metric - despite him not really having an involvement.  

It evens out imo

 

We have plenty and I mean plenty of plays that are +ev totally off script

[Sojourner]

Pretty interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing that. 
 

The one thing I will always give Daboll credit for was reining Josh in when he was losing it or stuck in the headlines, or when the game looked to be slipping away. 

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

So, last year I made a little topic due to our penchant for slow starts.

 

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

I'd like to re-open the court case and add Joe Brady to the mix.

 

Daboll:

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

Dorsey:

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  4/10 - Dorsey fired

 

Brady

 

2023:  2/7  - Brady took over after Broncos

 

2024: 3/7 - so far

 

So really when you look at the numbers:

 

Daboll opening drive score% - 54.5%

 

Dorsey - 38%

 

Brady - 35.7%

 

So my eyes are not deceiving me. There's obvious gameplan and talent related factors, but there has been a clear decline in scripted scoring drives since the Daboll era.

 

Lots of room for Brady to improve here. It's early as an OC for him, and I think he has done okay figuring out the opposing defenses so far, but your first 12-15 plays NEED to be money.

 

IMO, they are also a good indicator of offensive coaching.  Here's the Chiefs numbers the last 2 years, for reference (and we have litigated their offensive struggles)

 

2023: 7/16 (backups played week 18)

2024: 3/6

 

Reid: 45%

 

So what say you?

 

What I say, and I know it's not a popular opinion, Brian Daboll is the best OC the Bills have had in my fandom (going back to 2002). I liked the start Brady made this year but I think the issues have surfaced the past few weeks and his first fifteen are DEFINITELY an area of concern for me. The thing Dabes did better than the other two was get Josh in rhythm early, almost above all else on offense. The first time we got the ball priority #1 was always "get Josh going."

[BillsFan130]

Daboll to me was way better than Dorsey and Joe Brady.

 

Did he have some head scratching calls on 3rd and shorts that was frustrating?

For sure just like any coach.

 

But I think his game planning was extremely good and he was the only coach the bills have had who consistently would give belichick and Spags problems