Defense: 1st Half vs 2nd Half - What is going on?

[JohnNord]

16 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

How are we getting caught off guard so frequently in the first half? The numbers are crazy at this point.

 

First Half

236 plays

1,402 yards = 200.28 Yards Per Game  

95 points = 13.57 per game

5.94 Yards Per Play

 

Second Half

224 plays

910 yards = 130 Yards Per Game

33 points = 4.71 per game

4.06 Yards Per Play

 

It seems as though that we are somehow surprised by teams coming right at us in the run game. We get completely gashed. Then we make adjustments in the 2nd half and we totally shut it down (in all but the Ravens game). We see more pressures getting home as well. Our 2nd half defense has been completely dominating all year while our first half defense has been below average, even bad.  Look at some of these trends below in addition to the numbers. 

 

-4 of 7 opponents have scored 17 or more in the first half

-5 of 7 opponents have over 200 yards in the first half 

 

-Only 2 teams have even got to 7 in the second half

-0 of 7 teams have gained 175 yards in the second half

 

Like most things that aren’t positive about this team, I am certain some will find a way to fault McDermott.  
 

Maybe part of it is his scheme which aims to keep everything in front of the defense and protects against big plays.

 

The other factor is that the defense has had a lot of injuries and teams are taking advantage of the weaknesses - Williams, Spector, Lewis, Hamlin, etc.  The 6th round pick the Bills signed from the PS last week was terrible when he was on the DL.  
 

To the credit of McDermott and Babich both have made adjustments and found a way to slow teams in the second.

 

Remember how the knock on McDermott was “he just doesn’t make adjustments!” LOL

[Utah John]

Part of the explanation is the other part of the team: the offense.  The Bills offense generally gets better performance in the second half (the Jags game excepted, which was over by halftime and the Bills coasted). So the offense is on the field more in the second half, which by my math means the defense is out there less.  Also when the offense gets in gear and takes the lead, the other teams generally stop running so much.

 

Why are they both better in the second half (again, the Jags excepted)?  Maybe the Bills are so good they can play vanilla the first half, then the OC and his guys, and the DC and his guys, get together, and start calling more aggressively in the second half.  Knowing that only a few teams can match them when they get going.

 

There ARE some teams that can match them, and that should win more than five times out of 10 games with the Bills.  That's the nature of a re-set year.  As we've been expecting all year, the Bills should stroll to the AFCE again, this time probably getting the 4 seed and a home playoff game, maybe win that, then lose in the next round.  A pretty good year all things considered.  Next year is when all the pieces should be back in place.

[Big Turk]

Bills WANT to play 2 high shell coverage but they aren't good enough at stopping the run while they are in that so they then have to transition to more single high looks which they DO NOT WANT to do...

 

But for right now they might have to...night and day difference defensively while playing that way. Very aggressive in their single high looks is far more effective than than passiveness in their 2 high shells.

[Mikie2times]

50 minutes ago, Draconator said:

Why can't you just be happy with a good win?

Are you every happy?

 

38 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Maybe briefly if McD gets fired? You know, the guy with the best winning % in team history? The guy who has the second best winning % in professional US sports in recent years. Yeah, firing that coach would probably make him happy. 

 

I hated the start as much as anyone. But it sure felt good to see things turn around and watch Josh, Coleman and Cooper make plays. It felt good again and I enjoyed watching. A lot to work on, but it was fun to watch again. I want to see the “Good Bills” show up in the playoffs! 

 

.

While I really don't like McD, this post has nothing to do with him. McD isn't listed in the post. Nor does it have anything to do with my "happiness". Good things can happen, bad things can happen, what happens in one game doesn't change what's happened or happening over the season. If you want to change the thread to my happiness I was actually very happy with addition of Cooper and how we played. I think we have the firepower to have some hope that just wasn't present before. I don't think McD will be able to capitalize on any of that but would like nothing more than to eat crow for the rest of eternity as the Bills celebrate a Super Bowl. 

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

As for solutions... maybe be willing to play more man early on? I know that does not match up particularly well with the skill set of our CBs, but anything is better than letting offenses come out and easily pick up chunk yardage through our predictable zone spacing. If it's gonna be that easy, at least make their guys beat our guys.

 

Also I think we should be telling the DL to be a bit more conservative early on. Multiple teams this year have taken advantage of our penetration style defense. It's getting us burned on draws and screens especially early in games. If our players aren't going to recognize when the OL is purposefully letting them get upfield, the coaches need to adjust their style. There's no reason it should take us an entire half to make these adjustments when every team is killing us in the same way.

 

This is the Bills problem in a nutshell.

 

Sean McDermott doesn't believe in breaking from his scheme.  Ever  He is fully confident that (regardless of an opponent's strengths), the Bills will always come out on top if the players execute everything properly for 4 full quarters.  If the Week 4 game against Baltimore wasn't going to push him into a 4-3 alignment or heavier boxes, then absolutely nothing will.

 

And honestly, McDermott is probably right going against 90-95% of the NFL.  The regular season winning percentage is proof.  It's just those pesky 3-4 top teams like the Chiefs and Bengals, who we inevitably run into during the postseason.  Stay consistent/patient with the rushing attack, short passes and screens... they know this defense will struggle.

 

I would LOVE to see McDermott start experimenting with different ideas/play-calls.  Especially early in games, since we are getting toasted anyway.  Develop some kind of pivot, just in case our normal thing isn't doing the job.  

 

 

Edited October 21 by mjt328

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

You think McD is letting Babich create game plans for the first half with no input? 

 

I don't believe the coordinators are puppets, no. Do I believe McDermott has no input? Also no. But the sudden 1st quarter issues arise with two very inexperienced coordinators in place. I think it comes down to some growing pains.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

This is the Bills problem in a nutshell.

 

Sean McDermott doesn't believe in breaking from his scheme.  Ever  He is fully confident that (regardless of an opponent's strengths), the Bills will always come out on top if the players execute everything properly for 4 full quarters.  If the Week 4 game against Baltimore wasn't going to push him into a 4-3 alignment or heavier boxes, then absolutely nothing will.

 

And honestly, McDermott is probably right going against 90-95% of the NFL.  The regular season winning percentage is proof.  It's just those pesky 3-4 top teams like the Chiefs and Bengals, who we inevitably run into during the postseason.  Stay consistent/patient with the rushing attack, short passes and screens... they know this defense will struggle.

 

I would LOVE to see McDermott start experimenting with different ideas/play-calls.  Especially early in games, since we are getting toasted anyway.  Develop some kind of pivot, just in case our normal thing isn't doing the job.  

 

 

I think there’s some truth to that given how many snaps the defense plays in Nickel.  Id also agree about the Baltimore game.  
 

I’ll have to disagree with just about everything else you said.  
 

The Bills played a bland zone defense in the first half.  They switched up to man in the second half which was probably the reason for their success.  So he did break his scheme on Sunday.  

 

I’ll also disagree that it doesn’t work for the 3-4 top teams.  They’ve beaten KC three years in a row in the regular season - so it has worked.  What was different in the postseason?  Poor play from every WR not named Shakir and a guy off the couch at LB trying to defense Travis Kelce.

 

When the Bills lost to Cincy the entire team played like crap.  Not just the defense.  

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't believe the coordinators are puppets, no. Do I believe McDermott has no input? Also no. But the sudden 1st quarter issues arise with two very inexperienced coordinators in place. I think it comes down to some growing pains.

I swear that people think McDermott controls every play call on offense and defense

[Freak-O]

18 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

This is why they got blown out when they played good teams.  Can’t start games the way they do and expect to beat good teams 

When did they get blown out? Against the Ravens, sure, but other than that the last few years? 

[Old Coot]

10 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

swear that people think McDermott controls every play call on offense and defense

As Churchill once said, "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, satisfying and Wrong."

[Brand J]

The defense has been Charmin soft in the first halves. The schemes allow QBs and WRs to play pitch and catch and the flats are hardly defended, so TEs and RBs also have uncontested receptions. If you ask me, the coaches depend too much on the front 4 to disrupt the QB. When they’re not getting back there (as is usually the case in the first half), the back 7 have the resistance of tissue paper. To their credit, the Bills have adjusted well in the second halves, but I’d like to see schemes that open with the assumption the front 4 won’t come out disruptive.