corta765 Posted October 16 Posted October 16 (edited) It has been almost a month since I did the AFC rankings so time for October. These are based off current status of clubs both record and roster for how it looks they will go, obviously things change. As always comment, disagree, get wild: The Four Horseman ... These teams are the AFCs clubhouse leaders and the true favorites at this point although they all have a degree of question when facing each other Kansas City- Undefeated and seemingly immovable they have staved off losses despite a roster which needs help. The defense is stout, but the offense is noticeably down and the injuries have been major. Mahomes is Mahomes but even by his lofty standards he has not been great. They need WR help badly but with Adams and Cooper gone the amount of major needs is low for a team that needs a real emergence. Baltimore- Derrick Henry was the best addition to a team in terms of fit this year. This offense is scary and can enforce their will on you by seemingly command. The defense though is not as stout as prior years and I am curious how the offense handles the war of attrition the regular season gives by seasons end. 1 seed would do wonders to let everyone heal up for a run. Houston - The new kids on the block look stellar and truthfully they may be the must fun team to watch in the NFL. Even with Collins out for a bit their lethal and the defense is pretty solid. Postseason will be fun to see if Stroud and crew take that next step. Buffalo - Pre Cooper trade they were not in this category but with him in the fold the offenses ceiling is back to the level needed to compete with the other 3. 17 is having his most mature season yet as he has evolved into far more a field general then the cowboy of the past. As the defense heals this team will hit its stride across the board the final 4-5 weeks (give Cooper some time) and setup the potential run to finally break thru. Playoffs!.. Actually Yeah Playoffs Pittsburgh - The decision to go to Wilson ranges from curious to awful. Fields is by far not a perfect QB but the offense at least had a bit of flash with him and his mobility created a threat that no longer exists. The defense is stellar as always, Tomlin finds a way for this team to hang around for 17 games, and despite a tougher schedule they have banked enough wins early that a playoff miss would be a bit surprising... but could happen. LA Chargers - Good coaching always does wonders and they are playing like a team very honest about their talent which is always a scary issue for an opponent. Their schedule features KC/BAL/CIN down the road, but it still has a lot of easier games where they can stack some wins. Curious if they trade for a WR to help out the kids and make a greater playoff push The Path & Opportunity Is There... But Someone Is Missing & Stealing The Headlines Cincinnati - Burrow is playing some of his best ball and the offense is for the most part back in form. But they have already dropped some winnable games, play in a buzz saw of a division, and the defense has faded thanks to injuries/talent that has left. The schedule has opportunities for the Bengals to get back into it, but cheap ownership not keep good players makes it feel like a last dance of sorts with this group and the pressure keeps adding to Burrow to keep it together. Palmer was right years ago that ownership would cost them and it already feels true. NY Jets - Adams will help the offense find a more stable dynamic footing, but Rodgers still is 40 and it shows mobility wise. His arm is there so with some protection they can hang around and the defense is solid. BUT they have lost to Denver already so even games that feel like gimmes on what is a weak schedule maybe shouldn't at this point. Not sure what is more Jets missing the playoffs the last day when it is win and get in at like 9-8 or make it in at 10-7 only to get steamrolled the next week. Aquatic Mammals Exist Miami- Tua will come back but it does feel like Miami is really letting him take his time, but even before he went out the offense already started feeling shaky and as though McDaniel was low on answers. But this roster just lacks depth even if Tua comes back 100% and with the offense already shaky it feels like they will need a solid regroup in the offseason just to get back to where they had been. Horsey Teams! ... They kick a bit but don't have the "horses" to go the distance Denver - Bo Nix has had some moments and Payton has gotten them to be relatively competitive, but the road ahead is really tough and this offense has no juice to really make it through the season. Still they will play four quarters and pull upsets because of it. Indianapolis - Nice story with Flacco right now and offense can do things. They will probably be in the hunt still in early December and maybe they get lucky like CLE last year, but they just feel like they plateau and get passed by better teams especially with a near league worst defense. On To 2025 ... four of these teams have a long painful road for fans to watch while the other has a rookie QB that hopefully inspires hope Cleveland - The impact of the Watson trade just keeps getting worse. Playoff caliber roster that is sunk by a QB they refuse to remove and ownership too stubborn to admit their mistake. Roster windows open and close fast and it feels like by the time Watson is out of the picture they will have to reshape the talent base again. Poor brown fans Jacksonville - It is truly amazing they were 8-3 and top of the AFC less then a year ago. Whatever has went wrong here starts with QB Trevor Lawrence who has failed to improve, but it runs far deeper given how out of sorts the team itself is. Very tough questions will need to be answered this off season and so much rides on ownership getting it right. For the record GM Trent Baalke is on his second operation where a talent base existed and as his reign continued seemingly eroded. Las Vegas - It really feels like they literally have wasted a year; no rookie QB to break in, roster isn't win now, and no real plan. They have the best stadium to visit to as an opposing fan and are really a sad franchise especially the potential that exists given the market they play in. New England - Standard rebuilding year with a rookie QB. The kids has some nice attributes physicality and the biggest hope is he along with some of the kids on offense grow. Tennessee - Levis isn't the guy which means again going after a new QB in 2025. They rolled the dice to see what could happen at least and better to burn out the way they are trying out a youngster then go middling at 7-10. Edited October 16 by corta765 3 4 Quote
Malazan Posted October 16 Posted October 16 Cleveland should be on to 2027 after they're able to get out of the Watson contract. 1 1 Quote
corta765 Posted October 16 Author Posted October 16 5 minutes ago, Malazan said: Cleveland should be on to 2027 after they're able to get out of the Watson contract. I believe after 2025 it does lighten where they can do what Denver did with finally absorbing a ton of dead cap. But its bad real bad regardless, they have had for 3-4 years now a very very solid roster not including QB and by the time they can probably address it properly you will have to reshape it. 3 1 Quote
JP51 Posted October 16 Posted October 16 1 minute ago, corta765 said: I believe after 2025 it does lighten where they can do what Denver did with finally absorbing a ton of dead cap. But its bad real bad regardless, they have had for 3-4 years now a very very solid roster not including QB and by the time they can probably address it properly you will have to reshape it. I hate being bitter but after that trash contract they gave that trash person I hope they choke on it. Agreed on that roster... That D is really good there... and they are gonna waste it all... and I used to kinda empathize with the Browns.... but that deal set them back 10 years. They got 7 left to go lol. 1 1 1 Quote
Gregg Posted October 16 Posted October 16 I am not so sure Tua comes back this year. If he does it won't be anytime soon. He has a long history with head injuries/concussions. Two years the Bills game although they didn't call it a concussion. That was the game where he was running off the field and then he went to the ground. The Bengals and Packers games that year he suffered concussions. 1 Quote
corta765 Posted October 16 Author Posted October 16 Just now, Gregg said: I am not so sure Tua comes back this year. If he does it won't be anytime soon. He has a long history with head injuries/concussions. Two years the Bills game although they didn't call it a concussion. That was the game where he was running off the field and then he went to the ground. The Bengals and Packers games that year he suffered concussions. All indications seem he will at some point even if the team is 4-9. Not saying I agree but I would be more surprised if he doesn't play at this point. 2 1 Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted October 16 Posted October 16 4 minutes ago, corta765 said: All indications seem he will at some point even if the team is 4-9. Not saying I agree but I would be more surprised if he doesn't play at this point. I heard week 8 at first from a few of those nfl analyst type people but now it seems way more up in the air so I’m not sure if he had a setback or what. or maybe they’re treating it as a lost season and want to improve draft position idk 2 1 Quote
corta765 Posted October 16 Author Posted October 16 7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said: I heard week 8 at first from a few of those nfl analyst type people but now it seems way more up in the air so I’m not sure if he had a setback or what. or maybe they’re treating it as a lost season and want to improve draft position idk They are def in a weird spot. 2-3 but the schedule has some very winnable games and IF IF IF Tua were to comeback fully healthy and the offense can get back to being productive the playoffs could be a very real thing in what seems like a very open AFC. But that also feels like a lot of things needing to all happen at once AND Miami realistically needs to go 7-4 to get a spot while also being 2-2 already in conference 1 Quote
Malazan Posted October 16 Posted October 16 1 hour ago, corta765 said: I believe after 2025 it does lighten where they can do what Denver did with finally absorbing a ton of dead cap. But its bad real bad regardless, they have had for 3-4 years now a very very solid roster not including QB and by the time they can probably address it properly you will have to reshape it. The dead cap hit is 172,770,000 after the 2025 season. I'm thinking.. no. After 2026, it's $99,835,000 so.. still probably no. After 2027, it's down to $26,900,000 so almost definitely yes. I'm not sure what shenanigans they could pull to add void years or something to try to get out sooner, but I've seen various media that writes about Cleveland say that Watson is there for the next two years with no legitimate outs. 1 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted October 16 Posted October 16 2 minutes ago, Malazan said: The dead cap hit is 172,770,000 after the 2025 season. I'm thinking.. no. After 2026, it's $99,835,000 so.. still probably no. After 2027, it's down to $26,900,000 so almost definitely yes. I'm not sure what shenanigans they could pull to add void years or something to try to get out sooner, but I've seen various media that writes about Cleveland say that Watson is there for the next two years with no legitimate outs. Cleveland will need to draft a Rookie QB, and rely on Rookies for about 2 more years. Cut Watson in 2027 and move on from there. 1 1 Quote
T master Posted October 17 Posted October 17 3 hours ago, Malazan said: The dead cap hit is 172,770,000 after the 2025 season. I'm thinking.. no. After 2026, it's $99,835,000 so.. still probably no. After 2027, it's down to $26,900,000 so almost definitely yes. I'm not sure what shenanigans they could pull to add void years or something to try to get out sooner, but I've seen various media that writes about Cleveland say that Watson is there for the next two years with no legitimate outs. Man who ever said yes to that contract should be hung in the middle of the city . That has to be the most stupid contract to agree to in the history of the league . Especially after what he was involved in to just go all in on him when they didn't know of how many more might come out with the same allegations that was crazy . I can't even watch them & it just serves them all right it's just a total cluster F of a situation, if Beane did something like that the Mafia would run him out of town !! Has anyone ever heard exactly who made or agree'd to that deal with Watson ? 1 3 Quote
Sojourner Posted October 17 Posted October 17 4 minutes ago, T master said: Has anyone ever heard exactly who made or agree'd to that deal with Watson ? Been reported many times that Hallam himself and Andrew Berry signed off on the trade for Watson. Berry, as a GM, probably wanted it but not to the magnitude of what they had to give up. Haslam didn’t care; the contract alone should tell you that much. They thought they were going to get the last football Watson played before the year out: 70.2% completion 4823 yards 33 tds 7 ints 444 rushing yards 3 tds they didn’t. Didn’t even get the 2018 or 2019 version of Watson. Absolutely fitting after his crimes that his career downward spirals into garbage. Sad that he got all of that money guaranteed. 1 2 Quote
Process Posted October 17 Posted October 17 Can't remember a time ever where the division picture in an entire conference was so clear after 6 weeks. The ravens have the longest odds to win theirs and they are at -330!! Bills -390 Texans -750 Chiefs -1300 Quote
JP51 Posted October 17 Posted October 17 16 hours ago, corta765 said: All indications seem he will at some point even if the team is 4-9. Not saying I agree but I would be more surprised if he doesn't play at this point. I agree with this... they are posturing he has no symptoms etc... as opposed to he is meeting with doctors and carefully evaluating and will be back when he is ready... etc... I feel like anytime after the IR time is up is possible. 10 hours ago, Process said: Can't remember a time ever where the division picture in an entire conference was so clear after 6 weeks. The ravens have the longest odds to win theirs and they are at -330!! Bills -390 Texans -750 Chiefs -1300 Never did quite get betting odds... this means... You have to bet $390.00 to win $100 for the bills right? 1 Quote
corta765 Posted October 17 Author Posted October 17 11 hours ago, Process said: Can't remember a time ever where the division picture in an entire conference was so clear after 6 weeks. The ravens have the longest odds to win theirs and they are at -330!! Bills -390 Texans -750 Chiefs -1300 Yep, but the flipside is the NFC all four divisions are complete toss ups right now. I wouldn't be stunned if DET ends up being a WC team just given how tight that race is and they are probably the best team in the NFC Quote
Process Posted October 17 Posted October 17 36 minutes ago, JP51 said: I agree with this... they are posturing he has no symptoms etc... as opposed to he is meeting with doctors and carefully evaluating and will be back when he is ready... etc... I feel like anytime after the IR time is up is possible. Never did quite get betting odds... this means... You have to bet $390.00 to win $100 for the bills right? Yea exactly 1 Quote
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