The Hail Mary from Rodgers

[Johnnycage46]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sure, but when we have personnel and alignment to defend the sideline in order to prevent a mid-range pass out of bounds, you cant say the coaches are putting those players in the best position to succeed. Rather, I'd argue they are directly setting them up to fail.

 

They've been told defend the boundary. The Offense does something else (that everyone else saw coming). The players can only do so much.

 

The coaches should have had, at the very least, a combo like Hollins and Kincaid back in the end zone to do just that. Instead, we left our smaller guys in to go get a jump ball against guys like Lazard and Wilson.

Good points.

[Livinginthepast]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Crazy how much we all assume that the other team getting the ball back with ~20seconds left means automatic points, and the Bills were forced to pick their poison.

 

I've been watching football religiously for almost 40 years now, and I dont ever remember feeling like this about a team. Other than playing against specifically Brady and the Pats. But outside of that, down to mere seconds, it was always "ok, we'll stop them and run out the clock and head into half".

 

I'd love to see a stat that tracks Opponent Scoring when they get the ball with less than 30 seconds on the clock. And where McD's Bills rank in that.

 

Maybe with the modern rules all teams have issues defending 80yds in a small amount of time? But if that is the case, why dont Offenses treat every drive like time is running out? The Jets, Chiefs, etc managed to drive into scoring position in 1 or 2 plays. To me, that seems more like a consistent defensive melt down than anything else.

This is an excellent point. Modern offenses are much more potent and the OCs are much more aggressive than in the old days. Sadly this also means that HCs and  DCs have to be much more cognizant of the threat with less than a minute left. The bizarre thing about this is we are one of the teams that are capable of going down the field and scoring (bc of Josh) with less than a minute left but at the same time we are one of the teams on defense that most likely to give up points (bc of McD) in the same fashion! 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Livinginthepast said:

This is an excellent point. Modern offenses are much more potent and the OCs are much more aggressive than in the old days. Sadly this also means that HCs and  DCs have to be much more cognizant of the threat with less than a minute left. The bizarre thing about this is we are one of the teams that are capable of going down the field and scoring (bc of Josh) with less than a minute left but at the same time we are one of the teams on defense that most likely to give up points (bc of McD) in the same fashion! 

 

Are they tho? Is this happening everywhere? I dont watch enough other games to know.

 

I just went back through last week's games using ESPN's Play by Play feature. There are some examples of teams getting the ball back with ~30sec left on the clock. None of them end up like ours. All of them end up as expected. Either teams just taking a knee to end the half, or trying a few plays and getting no where because this situation is so easily defended.

 

Not a single other example of teams using 20-30seconds to hit a couple of big plays and get into scoring position.

 

I'll keep looking through the other weeks, but it almost seems that the NFL knows if there is any time on the clock, you have a chance to score against McDermott.

 

edit:

Looked through the previous week as well and found a couple similar examples

 

Benglas/Ravens, Bengals got the ball back with :34 and all their TOs. Used 4 plays to go 80 yds for a TD

Broncos/Raiders, Broncos got ball back with :27. Ran 5 plays to go 38 yards and setup a 44 yd FG.

Seahawks/Giants. This one is the most like what we are talking about. Seahawks got the ball with :22 left and used 2 plays to go 45 yds and setup a FG.

 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 07:53 PM by DrDawkinstein

[Livinginthepast]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Are they tho? Is this happening everywhere? I dont watch enough other games to know.

 

I just went back through last week's games using ESPN's Play by Play feature. There are some examples of teams getting the ball back with ~30sec left on the clock. None of them end up like ours. All of them end up as expected. Either teams just taking a knee to end the half, or trying a few plays and getting no where because this situation is so easily defended.

 

Not a single other example of teams using 20-30seconds to hit a couple of big plays and get into scoring position.

 

I'll keep looking through the other weeks, but it almost seems that the NFL knows if there is any time on the clock, you have a chance to score against McDermott.

 

edit:

Looked through the previous week as well and found a couple similar examples

 

Benglas/Ravens, Bengals got the ball back with :34 and all their TOs. Used 4 plays to go 80 yds for a TD

Broncos/Raiders, Broncos got ball back with :27. Ran 5 plays to go 38 yards and setup a 44 yd FG.

Seahawks/Giants. This one is the most like what we are talking about. Seahawks got the ball with :22 left and used 2 plays to go 45 yds and setup a FG.

 

 

 

I think this is the key part . Teams have studied McD's defenses and his end of the half tendencies  and exploited them. McD also oddly doesnt change his strategy of playing soft zone and giving up yards even when a team has all their TOs left. Its mind numbing how obvious the Bills D is in the situation.

[folz]

I was just watching the highlights of the Jets game again and saw something that I hadn't noticed before:

 

I know refs often won't make calls on Hail Marys or end-of-half, end-of-game plays, but it looked to me like there was clear offensive pass interference by Lazard on T. Johnson. He grabbed him and pushed him down, and kind of used the momentum to make his jump. That's why Taron is in such a bad/awkward position (not looking at/jumping for the ball). He was the box out player. He would have been in front of Lazard, blocking him out like for a rebound. But he was unable to do so because of the offensive pass interference. 

 

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 04:46 AM by folz

[folz]

Here are two more shots. Look at the momentum of Taron's body between the images. Seems an obvious push off, imo. 

 

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

Great research! Fascinating that had that been a D player abusing the WR it gets called. I’ve seen this in other non Bills games as well. With all the PIs they call this is an egregious non call. But using two pass rushers to guard the sidelines is an absolute disgrace by McD. 

[DrPJax]

On 10/17/2024 at 2:40 PM, Livinginthepast said:

This is an excellent point. Modern offenses are much more potent and the OCs are much more aggressive than in the old days. Sadly this also means that HCs and  DCs have to be much more cognizant of the threat with less than a minute left. The bizarre thing about this is we are one of the teams that are capable of going down the field and scoring (bc of Josh) with less than a minute left but at the same time we are one of the teams on defense that most likely to give up points (bc of McD) in the same fashion! 

Belicheck pointed out in the MNF manningcast that the nfl has shifted the game with penalties now heavily in favor of the offense.   These days , all they are hoping to do is get one or two defensive pi calls and they are in scot8ng position.   How many drives are extended by a cb barely touching a wr , and back shoulder throws commonly draw pi. Also after 5 yards , cbs can’t touch a wr , and now you see calls of pi in the endzone much more frequently than when I grew up in te 79’s , 80’s etc.   Back then they let the lay go on , and it was really rare to see hail Mary plays or long drives under a min succeed.   How many drives against the bills were extended after the play was over, stopped by the bills , only to be extended on third and 20 by some over officious holding , roughing the passer .or interference as a ball sailed way overhead as a wr came back with exaggerated flailing of arms to get the pi call, but now you don’t see uncatchable passes being called ?  
 

so now Mcd has gone ultra conservative with only rushing two.  Every time I’ve seen that , college or prom, the qb gets off an unpressured pass with legs set , torso aligned , under no hurry or rush and the success rate of impossible drives has turned now to,the possible.  So this is about coaching , correct personal,, understanding which can hurt you more , a long fg attempt or a Hail May. Now teams  are using time outs against Mcd to leave any amount of time on the clock as Mcd gained  a rep for poor coaching decisions.  13 seconds ,  normally a knell down or hook / ladder situation , has turned into expecting Mcd to misalign or not properly coach his players.  How does that haooen after the hail Murray?  Once was bad enough but he has allowed at least two others.  It’s unexplainable with a coach who has such a high wining percentage.  Having Hamlin and other smallish guys deep,who are poor ball trackers is just poor coaching. Rushing  two is idiotic.
.  Colleges still,rush 4 mostly or send  5 to rush the qb and get them  off balance or get to the qb.  I watch lots of football. , andrushing  two is rarely seen , other than by McD.  He coaches afraid to lose , not to trust his players to get pressure or get home. He puts lineman in no man’s land , wasting them in the play.  Until he changes , teams will keep Playing to save time at half’s / end game to test his soft d in one possession games and he so far , refuses to adapt. He coaches always to react , not dictate the action.  Against a poor o line, an older non mobile qb , his coaching g was the same as against a mobile qb like fields, Williams , mahomes.  
     He just never adjust despite wasting his time out we all know is coming. So despite time to set up , get correct strategy , sub better ball trackers , he does nothing different. So far he is the worst late game , one possession coach I have seen and perhaps in history. They obviously can’t stop a Hail Mary despite 5-6 deep backs , so why not just go after the qb for a pressure and less accurate release point?  So that and so many calls of defensive pi have altered the game , but Mcd won’t adapt. Until he changes strategy, we will see more impossible passes completed against his d in this copy cat league.  He got away with it this time as the jest kicker bailed us out.   It’s a w , but in a 1 possession game , if they have the ball last , it’s a 50/50 chance to still lose a lead. I wish he would sutvdown with Belicheck and tap his brain about philosophy on closing out games. 

, 

[Doc Brown]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:31 PM, Einstein said:

 

Horrendous.

 

I’ve said it before (after hail-murray) but i’ll say it again: Blitz on hail mary’s!

 

The receivers have to run 50 yards downfield. That takes at least 5 seconds. I don’t care how bad your pass rushers are - you will get to the QB by 5 seconds. 

The Cardinals tried that in the playoffs against him.  Didn't work out too well.  Granted it was eight or so years ago.

[GaryPinC]

2 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Belicheck pointed out in the MNF manningcast that the nfl has shifted the game with penalties now heavily in favor of the offense.   These days , all they are hoping to do is get one or two defensive pi calls and they are in scot8ng position.   How many drives are extended by a cb barely touching a wr , and back shoulder throws commonly draw pi. Also after 5 yards , cbs can’t touch a wr , and now you see calls of pi in the endzone much more frequently than when I grew up in te 79’s , 80’s etc.   Back then they let the lay go on , and it was really rare to see hail Mary plays or long drives under a min succeed.   How many drives against the bills were extended after the play was over, stopped by the bills , only to be extended on third and 20 by some over officious holding , roughing the passer .or interference as a ball sailed way overhead as a wr came back with exaggerated flailing of arms to get the pi call, but now you don’t see uncatchable passes being called ?  
 

so now Mcd has gone ultra conservative with only rushing two.  Every time I’ve seen that , college or prom, the qb gets off an unpressured pass with legs set , torso aligned , under no hurry or rush and the success rate of impossible drives has turned now to,the possible.  So this is about coaching , correct personal,, understanding which can hurt you more , a long fg attempt or a Hail May. Now teams  are using time outs against Mcd to leave any amount of time on the clock as Mcd gained  a rep for poor coaching decisions.  13 seconds ,  normally a knell down or hook / ladder situation , has turned into expecting Mcd to misalign or not properly coach his players.  How does that haooen after the hail Murray?  Once was bad enough but he has allowed at least two others.  It’s unexplainable with a coach who has such a high wining percentage.  Having Hamlin and other smallish guys deep,who are poor ball trackers is just poor coaching. Rushing  two is idiotic.
.  Colleges still,rush 4 mostly or send  5 to rush the qb and get them  off balance or get to the qb.  I watch lots of football. , andrushing  two is rarely seen , other than by McD.  He coaches afraid to lose , not to trust his players to get pressure or get home. He puts lineman in no man’s land , wasting them in the play.  Until he changes , teams will keep Playing to save time at half’s / end game to test his soft d in one possession games and he so far , refuses to adapt. He coaches always to react , not dictate the action.  Against a poor o line, an older non mobile qb , his coaching g was the same as against a mobile qb like fields, Williams , mahomes.  
     He just never adjust despite wasting his time out we all know is coming. So despite time to set up , get correct strategy , sub better ball trackers , he does nothing different. So far he is the worst late game , one possession coach I have seen and perhaps in history. They obviously can’t stop a Hail Mary despite 5-6 deep backs , so why not just go after the qb for a pressure and less accurate release point?  So that and so many calls of defensive pi have altered the game , but Mcd won’t adapt. Until he changes strategy, we will see more impossible passes completed against his d in this copy cat league.  He got away with it this time as the jest kicker bailed us out.   It’s a w , but in a 1 possession game , if they have the ball last , it’s a 50/50 chance to still lose a lead. I wish he would sutvdown with Belicheck and tap his brain about philosophy on closing out games. 

, 

Interesting about Belicheck feeling PI heavily favors the offense.  Other than the defenseless receiver rule, I don't get it or agree with him.

I don't remember the 70's but for many years through at least the 90's the defender couldn't physically interfere with the receiver's ability to catch the ball until it was touched.  Face guarding was also illegal unless the defender had eyes on the ball.

 

The 5 yard contact has always been a rule with no allowances for incidental contact until the last 10 ot 15 years?  Now they allow hand fighting and minor bumping.  The defender is now allowed equal opportunity to catch a thrown ball so long as he doesn't go through the receiver.  Face guarding also seems more tolerated. 

 

Maybe it's just me but in the past I felt the rules heavily favored the receiver but are now more even.

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The Cardinals tried that in the playoffs against him.  Didn't work out too well.  Granted it was eight or so years ago.

 

Cardinals (schematically) played it perfectly and their plan would have worked for us. The Cardinals flushed Rodgers 14 yards behind the line of scrimmage due to the blitz and he barely got the ball off while falling backwards and throwing on one leg. Because of the blitz, the Packers had to keep 7 blockers in (Jets only had to keep 5).

 

In our game, this would have meant that Rodgers would have been throwing from his own 33 yard line… a nearly 70 yard throw while falling backwards… and his receivers would have had to run 52 yards in 4-5 seconds.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 hours ago, folz said:

I know refs often won't make calls on Hail Marys or end-of-half, end-of-game plays

 

This is all it comes down to. Another strategic unwritten rule that everyone knows and coaches to, except McDermott apparently.

 

But hey, we didnt give up a Field Goal. *clap clap clap*

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Cardinals (schematically) played it perfectly and their plan would have worked for us. The Cardinals flushed Rodgers 14 yards behind the line of scrimmage due to the blitz and he barely got the ball off while falling backwards and throwing on one leg. Because of the blitz, the Packers had to keep 7 blockers in (Jets only had to keep 5).

 

In our game, this would have meant that Rodgers would have been throwing from his own 33 yard line… a nearly 70 yard throw while falling backwards… and his receivers would have had to run 52 yards in 4-5 seconds.

You're making a lot of assumptions there and all the Cardinals had to worry about was the Hal Mary as a field goal wasn't an option at that point.  If are blitzers are ineffective he could've stepped up and have a 65 yard throw or so without falling backwards.  I remember Greg Williams getting roasted against the Jets for a cover zero blitz (sending seven) against the Raiders where Carr was somehow able to step up in the pocket and throw a strike to a WR single covered. Plus, if he did blitz seven and he threw a quick pass to the sidelines to get us in field goal range McDermott would absolutely be criticized. 

[Einstein]

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

all the Cardinals had to worry about was the Hal Mary as a field goal wasn't an option at that point.

 

The Bills didn’t worry about it either. You think Epinesa was going to play corner and defend a quick pass to the boundary? lol.

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

If are blitzers are ineffective he could've stepped up and have a 65 yard throw or so without falling backwards. 

 

If sending 6 guys against 5 guys is ineffective, then we have an entirely other coaching discussion to be had.

 

But even if we didn’t get to him, it absolutely would have sped him up. You need 5 seconds to allow receivers to get to the endzone. He wouldn’t have had 5 seconds.

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I remember Greg Williams getting roasted against the Jets for a cover zero blitz (sending seven) against the Raiders where Carr was somehow able to step up in the pocket and throw a strike to a WR single covered.

 

That wasn’t a hail mary, and the Jets sent EIGHT (8) pass rushers, and put 3 defenders in man coverage. It was mind-numbingly dumb but not remotely close to what I am talking about.

 

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Plus, if he did blitz seven and he threw a quick pass to the sidelines to get us in field goal range McDermott would absolutely be criticized. 

 

Again, the Bills didn’t guard against the FG. They pretended to. In all seriousness - what was Epenesa going to do on that boundary against a 4.4 WR? The Jets easily could have completed a 10 yard pass and stepped out of bounds if they chose to. It would have been easy.

 

 

It is amazing to me that fans can defend this. 

We had 3 defensive players doing *NOTHING*. We were playing 8 against 11. 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

The Bills didn’t worry about it either. You think Epinesa was going to play corner and defend a quick pass to the boundary? lol.

 

 

If sending 6 guys against 5 guys is ineffective, then we have an entirely other coaching discussion to be had.

 

But even if we didn’t get to him, it absolutely would have sped him up. You need 5 seconds to allow receivers to get to the endzone. He wouldn’t have had 5 seconds.

 

 

That wasn’t a hail mary, and the Jets sent EIGHT (8) pass rushers, and put 3 defenders in man coverage. It was mind-numbingly dumb but not remotely close to what I am talking about.

 

 

Again, the Bills didn’t guard against the FG. They pretended to. In all seriousness - what was Epenesa going to do on that boundary against a 4.4 WR? The Jets easily could have completed a 10 yard pass and stepped out of bounds if they chose to. It would have been easy.

 

 

It is amazing to me that fans can defend this. 

We had 3 defensive players doing *NOTHING*. We were playing 8 against 11. 

 

I don't think anyone should defend it. I don't think that equates to "they should have blitzed." 

[Einstein]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone should defend it. I don't think that equates to "they should have blitzed." 

 

You will certainly have the majority agree with you.

 

Which, in my opinion, is indicative.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You will certainly have the majority agree with you.

 

Which, in my opinion, is indicative.

 

Blitzing woulda been a mistake IMO. 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

 

The Bills didn’t worry about it either. You think Epinesa was going to play corner and defend a quick pass to the boundary? lol.

 

 

If sending 6 guys against 5 guys is ineffective, then we have an entirely other coaching discussion to be had.

 

But even if we didn’t get to him, it absolutely would have sped him up. You need 5 seconds to allow receivers to get to the endzone. He wouldn’t have had 5 seconds.

 

 

That wasn’t a hail mary, and the Jets sent EIGHT (8) pass rushers, and put 3 defenders in man coverage. It was mind-numbingly dumb but not remotely close to what I am talking about.

 

 

Again, the Bills didn’t guard against the FG. They pretended to. In all seriousness - what was Epenesa going to do on that boundary against a 4.4 WR? The Jets easily could have completed a 10 yard pass and stepped out of bounds if they chose to. It would have been easy.

 

 

It is amazing to me that fans can defend this. 

We had 3 defensive players doing *NOTHING*. We were playing 8 against 11. 

You lost me when you said McDermott wasn't worried about the field goal.  He obviously was and it's why they only rushed two.  The personnel and execution was the major issue.

[Einstein]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Blitzing woulda been a mistake IMO. 

 

16 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

You lost me when you said McDermott wasn't worried about the field goal.  He obviously was and it's why they only rushed two.  The personnel and execution was the major issue.

 

McDermott agrees with me, folks.

 

Hail Mary this week? McD sent a blitz at the Titans.

Result? There wasn’t enough time for Titan receivers to run down the field, forcing a quicker throw and a manic attempt to lateral into the endzone.

 

Well done McD. Call me any time for more tips, coach.

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

McDermott agrees with me, folks.

 

Hail Mary this week? McD sent a blitz at the Titans.

Result? There wasn’t enough time for Titan receivers to run down the field, forcing a quicker throw and a manic attempt to lateral into the endzone.

 

Well done McD. Call me any time for more tips, coach.

They knew it was going to be a Hal Mary though.