The Hail Mary from Rodgers

[GoBills!]

14 hours ago, colin said:

mcd has allowed way too many clean attempts at hail maries, and has bumbled a whole lot of late game and end of half scenarios. 

 

the silly thing is our d is base nickel and generally has the best stats vs the deep pass, especially up the middle.  going out of that for some zero impact d is what has hurt us and corch has to wake up to it, right now.

 

also, billicheck who managed just a little more success in the playoffs than mcd would put WRs back their for special situations, knox and kinkaid and coleman can all play center field and body in front of the ball, only need one or two back there to take the hail mary away. 

I thought Mack Hollins should have been the guy. Special teamer who can tackle also a strong body 6 ft 4 dude that can handle lizard or anyone else in the end zone for jump balls. 

[Dan Darragh]

On 10/15/2024 at 6:44 PM, PoundingDog said:

Oh by the way for obvious Hail Mary defense, please get Coleman or Elam onto the field. We need some size and better ball tracking guys instead of small-ish DBs and Safeties back there.    

Kincaid

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The all-22 view of this play is insane:

 

 

What the heck am I looking at here?? Those two players to either side of the Jets logo are Rousseau and Epenesa as... intermediate safeties?? This is like something stupid you do for fun on Madden, hey what if I put my edge rushers at safety and see what happens. I have no idea what the plan is here.

 

 

I genuinely have no idea what that was. If the Jets were out of time outs, then as bizarre as that formation looks I would sort of get it. I can only imagine there was a serious miscalculation and they thought the Jets were out of TOs. Because if they weren't then there is no way from there you play full scale prevent. Baffling. 

 

And I know you make the wider point about McDermott and while I don't want to relitigate every past failure here generally even if I don't like every play call they make at the end of half/game I pretty much always understand the logic of what they are trying to do. I understand the thinking on Monday Night on the Hail Mary itself and I do think on that actual play the execution was probably worse than the play call (although as I have said before I'd have rushed 4) but that play before in the screenshot..... I have no explanation. I haven't seen his pressers yet but did anyone ask McDermott (or Babich for that matter) about that particular play? It was one of the most inexplicable play calls I have seen in 22 years of watching the NFL.

[Bermuda Triangle]

On 10/16/2024 at 2:28 AM, dma0034 said:

At some point they have to practice this. On top of the Cardinals I remember the Chargers getting a hail Mary but it was short of the end zone (maybe right after the Cardinals game)

Yes, it was the week following Hail Murray.

[Cash]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I genuinely have no idea what that was. If the Jets were out of time outs, then as bizarre as that formation looks I would sort of get it. I can only imagine there was a serious miscalculation and they thought the Jets were out of TOs. Because if they weren't then there is no way from there you play full scale prevent. Baffling. 

 

And I know you make the wider point about McDermott and while I don't want to relitigate every past failure here generally even if I don't like every play call they make at the end of half/game I pretty much always understand the logic of what they are trying to do. I understand the thinking on Monday Night on the Hail Mary itself and I do think on that actual play the execution was probably worse than the play call (although as I have said before I'd have rushed 4) but that play before in the screenshot..... I have no explanation. I haven't seen his pressers yet but did anyone ask McDermott (or Babich for that matter) about that particular play? It was one of the most inexplicable play calls I have seen in 22 years of watching the NFL.

Speaking of Madden, the screenshotted play is basically 9 Velcro with “coverage deep” on, except that in the game your D-ends stay on the line pre-snap. 
 

As for the Hail Mary itself, I hated the play call as soon as they lined up after the defensive timeout. I didn’t need the TV montage to know that Rodgers is the best HM thrower in the NFL. The key is that he throws it super high, so if his receiver posts up at the right spot, it’s basically impossible to knock down. I expect McDermott and Babich to also know this. 
 

So, knowing this, how best to defend Aaron Rodgers? I’m not sure, but I’m sure that the worst thing you can do is give him time to wind up unmolested and throw the exact ball he wants to throw. The 2 man rush guaranteed that Rodgers would have exactly that opportunity. I could have lived with a 4 man rush, a 3 man rush (especially if a 4th comes on a delay), or some sort of blitz (like send 5 or 6 and everyone else is in the end zone), but that plan was unacceptable under the circumstances.
 

McDermott said in his halftime interview that they were playing the sideline. That’s dumb. Let them have the sideline. They’re already at a perfect distance for Rodgers to reach the end zone, and you can live with a 50+ FG attempt in swirling winds if you have to. Job 1 needs to be defending against the TD. 

[Mister Defense]

On 10/15/2024 at 11:44 AM, PoundingDog said:

 

I guess we will see from the coach's video to see how the defense is set up. Clearly, as McDermott admitted, the Bills were playing the sideline, which is a higher percentage play from the Jets or anyone else's perspective, but the Jets were going for broke on Hail Mary. 

 

Overall, I don't think you can say people are going to live or die on Hail Mary day in and day out but proper preparation for your players matter. I don't know what McDermott said during the timeout prior to the play. If Hail Mary is not mentioned, it is a failure. Having 5 guys right before Rodgers launched the throw near him - not pressuring him - is inexcusable. You gotta tell guys to defend the Hail Mary as soon as you see the receivers are darting for the end zone if your strategy is not to rush the passer.

 

Personally I feel for McDermott and Co. going forward, just play your normal defense in those end of game, end of half scenarios. You are likely to have more success. The strength of McDermott led defense is to have guys in proper position and not giving up big plays. Just stick to that. We have done just that in the Arizona game and this Jets game at the end.

 

Oh by the way for obvious Hail Mary defense, please get Coleman or Elam onto the field. We need some size and better ball tracking guys instead of small-ish DBs and Safeties back there.    

 

I agree with your take.

 

When I see plays like that it seems so out of place, like they're playing scared; way too conservative, playing not to lose.

 

But I always get the feeling as I see it happening, that the result will be the opposite.

 

You lose when you play scared, and don't trust your players to do what they normally do.

 

 

[Livinginthepast]

3 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Yes, it was the week following Hail Murray.

 

Edited October 17 by Livinginthepast

[DrDawkinstein]

53 minutes ago, Cash said:

McDermott said in his halftime interview that they were playing the sideline. That’s dumb. Let them have the sideline. They’re already at a perfect distance for Rodgers to reach the end zone, and you can live with a 50+ FG attempt in swirling winds if you have to. Job 1 needs to be defending against the TD. 

 

McDermott was willing to give up a TD as long as we prevented a FG. Classic McD strategy.

[Livinginthepast]

I had forgotten about the Chargers one. Thats 3 successful Hail Marys under McD and one from Baker Mayfield vs TB that was very close to successful last year.  Next time a team tries this McD has to have some of our taller receivers and hands team on the field and rush the QB properly.

[zow2]

5 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

I had forgotten about the Chargers one. Thats 3 successful Hail Marys under McD and one from Baker Mayfield vs TB that was very close to successful last year.  Next time a team tries this McD has to have some of our taller receivers and hands team on the field and rush the QB properly.

 

The one from Baker should have been caught.   It's really messed up that the players are being taught to box out, meanwhile the jumpers are behind the receiver(s) not in front of them.  That's another problem.  

[CircleTheWagons99]

Does AJ get credit for the sack even if he got flagged? I'm talking about the RTP penelty he got. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, zow2 said:

 

The one from Baker should have been caught.   It's really messed up that the players are being taught to box out, meanwhile the jumpers are behind the receiver(s) not in front of them.  That's another problem.  

 

The baker one was underthrown.  The underneath guy was looking for a tip deflection.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

I had forgotten about the Chargers one. Thats 3 successful Hail Marys under McD and one from Baker Mayfield vs TB that was very close to successful last year.  Next time a team tries this McD has to have some of our taller receivers and hands team on the field and rush the QB properly.

 

I don't mind having 2 sideline guys there to prevent much in the way of gains - with 8 seconds they can potentially get a decent chunk for the field goal attempt.  but with that and rushing 3 you still have 6 guys deep to cover 5 max.  I don't like bernard... spying or delayed blitzing.  Just rush 3.  And put coleman or hollins (or both) in the middle to get some height and jumping.  

[DrDawkinstein]

Crazy how much we all assume that the other team getting the ball back with ~20seconds left means automatic points, and the Bills were forced to pick their poison.

 

I've been watching football religiously for almost 40 years now, and I dont ever remember feeling like this about a team. Other than playing against specifically Brady and the Pats. But outside of that, down to mere seconds, it was always "ok, we'll stop them and run out the clock and head into half".

 

I'd love to see a stat that tracks Opponent Scoring when they get the ball with less than 30 seconds on the clock. And where McD's Bills rank in that.

 

Maybe with the modern rules all teams have issues defending 80yds in a small amount of time? But if that is the case, why dont Offenses treat every drive like time is running out? The Jets, Chiefs, etc managed to drive into scoring position in 1 or 2 plays. To me, that seems more like a consistent defensive melt down than anything else.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:55 AM, Johnnycage46 said:

The best thing about that Hail Mary play is that it doesn't matter anymore (i.e. the Jets lost...so it just becomes another play). Obviously, not happy with how we can't seem to defend Hail Marys but glad it didn't end up mattering in the end.

 

The reason it matters is because it illustrates where McD still is after 8 years. He has not progressed, and it's likely going to hurt us in the playoffs once again, as it almost always does. 

40 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Crazy how much we all assume that the other team getting the ball back with ~20seconds left means automatic points, and the Bills were forced to pick their poison.

 

I've been watching football religiously for almost 40 years now, and I dont ever remember feeling like this about a team. Other than playing against specifically Brady and the Pats. But outside of that, down to mere seconds, it was always "ok, we'll stop them and run out the clock and head into half".

 

I'd love to see a stat that tracks Opponent Scoring when they get the ball with less than 30 seconds on the clock. And where McD's Bills rank in that.

 

Maybe with the modern rules all teams have issues defending 80yds in a small amount of time? But if that is the case, why dont Offenses treat every drive like time is running out? The Jets, Chiefs, etc managed to drive into scoring position in 1 or 2 plays. To me, that seems more like a consistent defensive melt down than anything else.

 

It totally is a meltdown. I'm never confident if the game comes down to McD's side of the ball. It's all soft zones and hoping the QB will make a mistake. McD is a coach that's built on beating up on bad QB's. That's why our defenses get torched in the playoffs every single postseason. Literally every single one. And he's never bothered to put in the work to change or improve himself. 

[Johnnycage46]

42 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

The reason it matters is because it illustrates where McD still is after 8 years. He has not progressed, and it's likely going to hurt us in the playoffs once again, as it almost always does. 

 

It totally is a meltdown. I'm never confident if the game comes down to McD's side of the ball. It's all soft zones and hoping the QB will make a mistake. McD is a coach that's built on beating up on bad QB's. That's why our defenses get torched in the playoffs every single postseason. Literally every single one. And he's never bothered to put in the work to change or improve himself. 

 

I get that to an extent...but the players need to knock that ball down...or maybe don't let a single WR box out 3 of our guys.

[MikePJ76]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The all-22 view of this play is insane:

 

 

What the heck am I looking at here?? Those two players to either side of the Jets logo are Rousseau and Epenesa as... intermediate safeties?? This is like something stupid you do for fun on Madden, hey what if I put my edge rushers at safety and see what happens. I have no idea what the plan is here.

 

To anyone trying to defend McDermott and blame the players for failing to execute, this sequence is not a one-off fluke, it is a trend. We have an unbelievable track record of goofy end of half or end of game defensive breakdowns under McDermott. I'm not going to bother to list them all. The players involved have changed over time. There is only one impossible to ignore constant.

 

The scary thing is that you cannot win a championship without executing on moments like this at least a couple times during your playoff run. And executing on these moments is by far McDermott's WORST trait as a head coach. My biggest fear is that no matter what else the Bills do, this one fatal flaw will always end up costing us at some point. That exact scenario already cost us one possible championship and it hasn't gotten any better.

 

I made this post in another thread about this but I think they have the ends like that to prevent the dumpoff/crossing route that then is setup with a bunch of blockers.  Andy Reid did this to Dallas in 2017 with Tyreek Hill.  Everyone went deep naturally and the chiefs setup a group of wr to block instead of run the verticals and just dumped it to hill, He scored and they called it the hill mary.  Same situation in the game too.

 

I am just guessing this is the kind of thing they are looking to have someone in the middle of the field or the edges for.  Of course they could have been guarding the sideline but I do not know why you would do that there.  Seems taking both of them and putting them on the hashes about 20 yards downfield would have been better placement.

 

 

[The Jokeman]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:03 PM, May Day 10 said:

Take Hamlin out.  He looks like my 11 year old kid trying to defend it.

 

 

I feel like Hollins would be a good hail mary defender.

Hollins or Coleman (see basketball background). 

[MasterStrategist]

Haven't read every comment.  But in the future, I hope Coach puts Hollins back deep and takes our 2 DTs off the field/rush with Groot and Aje.  Also Bernard needs to be told to come up much faster once WRs clear him.

 

No reason Groot or AJE should've been defending sidelines 10 yards downfield.  That's like wasting 2 defenders.  Put them up to rush and put Elam/Ingram in those spots, while Hollins deep for his height (or Keon).

[DrDawkinstein]

16 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

I get that to an extent...but the players need to knock that ball down...or maybe don't let a single WR box out 3 of our guys.

 

Sure, but when we have personnel and alignment to defend the sideline in order to prevent a mid-range pass out of bounds, you cant say the coaches are putting those players in the best position to succeed. Rather, I'd argue they are directly setting them up to fail.

 

They've been told defend the boundary. The Offense does something else (that everyone else saw coming). The players can only do so much.

 

The coaches should have had, at the very least, a combo like Hollins and Kincaid back in the end zone to do just that. Instead, we left our smaller guys in to go get a jump ball against guys like Lazard and Wilson.