Bills offensive struggles, is it as simple as home vs. road?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Could our struggles simply boil down to this offense not being able to play well on the road?

 

It's a small sample size but thus far the home vs. road splits are staggering. Link below to home vs. away offensive splits. Sorry couldn't figure out how to embed the table. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2024_splits.htm#game_location_splits

 

Offensive ppg home vs. away:

 

Home 40.5 ppg (two games)

Away 18ppg (three games)

 

Josh Allen:

 

QB Rating

 Home 143.2

Away 75.3

 

YPA

Home 9.3

Away 5.8

 

Comp %

Home 77%

Away 49%

 

As for strength of opponent. Baltimore's defense is bottom third / half of the league this year. And their passing defense in particular has been very poor. Bills should have faired much better based on weakness of Baltimore's defense. Neither the Jags or Cardinals are ranked highly in terms of defense for sure, but part of that is due to the games they played against us. Both have had some good defensive performances otherwise. 

 

I don't see these splits improving much with the upcoming four games:

 

@ New York Jets

vs. Titans

@ Seatlle

vs. Miami

 

Get ready for the roller coaster of up and down offensive performances to continue. I can definitely envision big offensive production vs Titans and Miami at home. After Miami we have a home game against KC. That is a game where you would think offensive production at home would dip some. 

 

I see the Bills winning the division and getting a home wild card game where they should advance to the divisional. But I highly doubt they end up playing at home in the divisional round this year. Unless things change, be ready for a poor offensive performance in the divisional round. 

 

Edited October 11 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[GolfandBills]

I think it’s more of the first three teams we played not being very good.  Every year it seems like we beat up on the bad teams and lose to the better teams maybe winning one here and there against good teams. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

43 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Could our struggles simply boil down to this offense not being able to play well on the road?

 

It's a small sample size but thus far the home vs. road splits are staggering. Link below to home vs. away offensive splits. Sorry couldn't figure out how to embed the table. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2024_splits.htm#game_location_splits

 

Offensive ppg home vs. away:

 

Home 40.5 ppg (two games)

Away 18ppg (three games)

 

Josh Allen:

 

QB Rating

 Home 143.2

Away 75.3

 

YPA

Home 9.3

Away 5.8

 

Comp %

Home 77%

Away 49%

 

As for strength of opponent. Baltimore's defense is bottom third / half of the league this year. And their passing defense in particular has been very poor. Bills should have faired much better passed on weakness of Baltimore's defense. Neither the Jags or Cardinals are ranked highly in terms of defense for sure, but part of that is due to the games they played against us. Both have had some good defensive performances otherwise. 

 

I don't see these splits improving much with the upcoming four games:

 

@ New York Jets

vs. Titans

@ Seatlle

vs. Miami

 

Get ready for the roller coaster of up and down offensive performances to continue. I can definitely envision big offensive production vs Titans and Miami at home. After Miami we have a home game against KC. That is a game where you would think offensive production at home would dip some. 

 

I see the Bills winning the division and getting a home wild card game where they should advance to the divisional. But I highly doubt they end up playing at home in the divisional round this year. Unless things change, be ready for a poor offensive performance in the divisional round. 

 

 

Ravens have some pretty stark home and away defensive splits as well.  Crowd noise helps a ton with snap counts, especially against motion heavy offenses.  As for ravens pass defense, their rush defense is #1 in the league so that kind of leads to it being a bad matchup for us.  

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

I think it’s more of the first three teams we played not being very good.  Every year it seems like we beat up on the bad teams and lose to the better teams maybe winning one here and there against good teams. 

I don’t think this is accurate. 
 

Last year we dug a hole and then beat the Chiefs, smoked the Cowboys and then beat the Dolphins final game of the season.  
 

You can tell me Dallas and Miami aren’t good, but then who is?   

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

I think it’s more of the first three teams we played not being very good.  Every year it seems like we beat up on the bad teams and lose to the better teams maybe winning one here and there against good teams. 

 

There is some of that, but I also think our offense musters more than 10 points against the Ravens if that's a Bills home game. Same thing with the Texans and only scoring 3 points in the first half. 

 

And of note, just expect the trend to continue. Seattle and NY Jets are not bad teams (well Jets D isn't bad anyway) and we play them on the road. Dolphins and Titans, not good teams and not great defenses so expect the offense to "figure things out" at home.

[Blank Stare]

Maybe, but I think it more boils down to Brady’s ineffective pass scheme. This has been called out as a concern many times before, including again today by Greg Cossel on OBL. There are no easy throws. Everything is a grind. Pair that with subpar receiving talent, not a great recipe. 

[Matt_In_NH]

case cracked!

[NewEra]

It’s definitely part of the problem, albeit a small part.  We haven’t run nearly as much motion on the road due to the crowd noise and that has hurt us some.  Some.

[jethro_tull]

19 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Could our struggles simply boil down to this offense not being able to play well on the road?

 

It's a small sample size but thus far the home vs. road splits are staggering. Link below to home vs. away offensive splits. Sorry couldn't figure out how to embed the table. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2024_splits.htm#game_location_splits

 

Offensive ppg home vs. away:

 

Home 40.5 ppg (two games)

Away 18ppg (three games)

 

Josh Allen:

 

QB Rating

 Home 143.2

Away 75.3

 

YPA

Home 9.3

Away 5.8

 

Comp %

Home 77%

Away 49%

 

As for strength of opponent. Baltimore's defense is bottom third / half of the league this year. And their passing defense in particular has been very poor. Bills should have faired much better based on weakness of Baltimore's defense. Neither the Jags or Cardinals are ranked highly in terms of defense for sure, but part of that is due to the games they played against us. Both have had some good defensive performances otherwise. 

 

I don't see these splits improving much with the upcoming four games:

 

@ New York Jets

vs. Titans

@ Seatlle

vs. Miami

 

Get ready for the roller coaster of up and down offensive performances to continue. I can definitely envision big offensive production vs Titans and Miami at home. After Miami we have a home game against KC. That is a game where you would think offensive production at home would dip some. 

 

I see the Bills winning the division and getting a home wild card game where they should advance to the divisional. But I highly doubt they end up playing at home in the divisional round this year. Unless things change, be ready for a poor offensive performance in the divisional round. 

 

That's part of it- loud away crowds hamper the communication between the offensive players, especially between QB and new receivers. 

Seems like there are other issues- offensive line causing Josh to be forced to throw sooner than he would like, receivers not getting separation, repeating predictable run calls on early downs that put the offense into third and long obvious passing downs that are difficult to convert per the above issues. 

[DapperCam]

This could be true. We have all new WR and shuffled the interior of the OL. Communication issues could be a problem. Especially with the issues recognizing pressure.

[strive_for_five_guy]

Shakir getting hurt is also a big part in my mind, since he is Josh’s most reliable passing valve at this point.

[BigAl2526]

No, I don't think that away versus home accounts for the Bills' funk.  It may be a small factor.  I think Buffalo had huge matchup issues versus Baltimore to go with their injury woes.  I think that the lopsided loss to Baltimore was a shock to Buffalo's psyche, and Josh Allen's in particular.  Even with all the troubles Buffalo had against Houston, they were just a few plays/mistakes away from winning that game.  They still have a bunch of key players dealing with injuries so there is no guarantee of a Buffalo win against a Jets team that can be trouble.  It is important for the Bills to get healthy.  If they can do that, they'll be OK.

[djp14150]

You realize many playoff teams are 0-2 loses at home, road record has 3-5 losses

[Drew21PA]

Appeared to me that maybe Brady got a little nervous against the ravens that we couldn’t keep up 

 

I don’t know the excuse for the stupid trick play but I feel we score that drive if we just settle down and play our football.  Behind or not - gotta relax - I sense the inexperience in that area for brady

 

mvdermott just screwed Josh Allen again last week.  Doesn’t bail him out - finds a stupid coaching blunder or two to just be the difference in winning a close and ugly game 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

58 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

You realize many playoff teams are 0-2 loses at home, road record has 3-5 losses

yes, but do they have the disparities I listed in the OP?

 

A QB that is 70 points better in passer rating at home vs. away for example?

 

This season is setting up to have very wonky home and away splits. 
 

Allen historically has not played well @ NY Jets. Hopefully that can change tonight.

[zow2]

Without checking I feel like the Bills were a solid road club starting in Allen’s 2nd year through 2022. Last season they struggled until the final few games when they went on a streak.  This year has been a road struggle the past two weeks. Gotta get rolling.