Chris Simms- good and detailed breakdown of Allen’s struggles vs Houston

[Einstein]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It was actually to flood the middle of the field and make us beat them to the outside.

 

Well yeah, that’s where all of our short stuff is… In this offense, the majority of our short passes (under 10 yards) are right in the middle. The typical passing chart since Brady took over looks like this under 10 yards (this is an actual Allen passing chart).

Right 70% of our short passes are completed in the middle as an overall average.

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Well yeah, that’s where all of our short stuff is… In this offense, the majority of our short passes (under 10 yards) are right in the middle. The typical passing chart since Brady took over looks like this under 10 yards (this is an actual Allen passing chart).

Right 70% of our short passes are completed in the middle as an overall average.

 

 

That is why teams are trying to take it away. Roquan Smith openly said as much and Houston followed suit. 

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I believe it was WGR that had a stat the other day that the Bills throw to the outside more than any team in the league. 

 

They mean deep (over 10 yards). Bills throw deep outside more than most teams.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The only thing I’ll say is we are at our best when Josh runs. I often say he’s the best PLAYER in the league but he’s not the best QB. Mahomes is better. What josh can gives you with his legs makes him the most important player though. This guy needs to run. I don’t care what conventional thought is or the risk. He’s not going to be the guy we need if you coach him into playing like Phillip Rivers. Just turn him loose and live with the old heads not understanding it. Do not coach the animal out of him. Our best play since 2018 has been josh running.

Edited 3 hours ago by Brianmoorman4jesus

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another thread telling us that Allen was awful, terrible even Peterman like.  Just what we need.  And bashing Einstein an ardent Allen supporter is just to good to pass up.  I like Simms but his review is not the be all end all of what happened on Sunday.

 

 

Thank you.

[Brand J]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm just glad there's a thread that's four pages and counting (rightly) criticizing Allen's play on Sunday.

Josh has become almost saintly to many Bills fans, to the point that any criticism of him is strictly verboten. It's ridiculous.

He's an elite quarterback who may end up in the Hall of Fame. He sometimes has bad games and makes boneheaded decisions. Both things can be true.

Oftentimes -- as is always the case in football -- there is blame to go around. But all too often, people want to pretend like Josh bears none of it, and many times, that's simply not the case.

I’m actually the opposite - l’m not glad there’s a thread criticizing his play because that means he’s not playing well. When multiple Bills players come forward to say “we believe in 17” it tells you they also know he’s playing poorly and want to show their support by publicly backing him. Yet throughout all this, we still have posters who say “Allen wasn’t bad, he was made to look bad thanks to his teammates.” It’s a weird form of idolization.
 

We are fortunate that we have a top 3, top 5, or whatever you want to label Allen as a QB, but feeling fortunate doesn’t mean he is absolved from any and all blame when he plays poorly.
 

I wish threads like these never existed because that would mean that Allen would never be the chief reason for a loss.

[GoBills808]

56 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

You are clearly suffering from a number of cognitive biases.  I would say that your particular wrong answer is about 2 standard deviations lower than the mean wrong answer assuming a normal distribution and a 95% confidence interval.  Its ok.  Not everyone can be as smart as @GoBills808

im not even smart enough to know why i got mentioned here lol

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, uninja said:

Teams with good front 7's have been able to absolutely shred the Bills passing game. Brady runs what looks like a WCO style of passing game that's very predicated on short passes and timing. Teams seem to have found some weakness in the o-line and how they're calling protections, because they're not blitzing at a higher than normal rate yet they're still seeing too much pressure and rushers coming free. Teams have figured out that overloading the line and making the o-line make business decisions about who is going to rush and who is going to drop into coverage is a recipe for confusion up front, it's causing a breakdown in protection, which creates pressure, which forces the ball to come out quicker.

 

You can see it against BAL and HOU, a lot of blitz/pressure looks that just turn into normal 3-4 fronts when the ball is snapped and the confusion causes breakdowns in blocking, which forces Allen to get rid of the ball quicker. It also seems that if your team can do this to the Bills/Allen early in the game it kinda messes up Allen's internal clock and he starts getting happy feet and throwing before he should.

 

They are confusing the Bills protection schemes by simulating pressure walking 7 people up to the line and the Bills are not properly identifying who is coming so even tho they are usually not sending extra people, sometimes they are overloading one side so they still have a numbers advantage versus the number of players the Bills have to block them.  

 

It's a pretty poor job of the Bills protection schemes and they better get it corrected or else we are going to see more of the same.

[Jauronimo]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

im not even smart enough to know why i got mentioned here lol

 

Cause you one of the special brain people. Us...not so lucky.

Edited 3 hours ago by Jauronimo

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

They mean deep (over 10 yards). Bills throw deep outside more than most teams.

 

What are your thoughts on Mack Hollins being the highest graded offensive player for us on PFF against Houston?

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

What short easy passes though? Do you mean the 4 total plays that Simms showed? Houston's entire defensive gameplan was to squat on our short stuff and dare us to throw deep. Thats why we got Hollins up deep a couple times.

 

Go watch the ALL-22. You may find a couple examples of times where a short pass was open, but 95% of the time they were completely blanketed. 

 

 

LOL. 95%? 95%!!!!!

Well he completed 9 passes so lets start there. Then the first 5 pass attempts there were players open. Sometimes even his very first read. And on some there were multiple players. 

So far we have 8 other completions plus these 5. At this rate, parcing through the A22, you might not even get to 50% of the time. 

First pass: Incomplete. Allen first looks to Samuel in the flat in what looks to be a screen? Nobody within 8 yards of him. Holds the ball. Looks center field and Kincaid is crossing across his face with a step on the LB in man coverage. Hucks the ball to a very covered Hollins down the left sideline. Still nobody near Samuel in the flat. 

2nd pass: Incomplete. One Simms already addressed. Cook beats his man and is the first read. The ball should have been thrown. 

3rd pass: Incomplete: The Hollins throw deep. This play also has Kincaid, Ty Johnson, and Coleman open. 

 

4th pass: Complete to Cook who is very open. 

5th pass: Sack: really strange. This looks like a screen to Samuel. He is there without a defender. Kincaid takes his man out of the play. Josh pump fakes to Samuel for a reason I cannot figure out?  Maybe to take off? Maybe to look down field? Then he takes a sack. I can't stop shaking my head at this one. Like WTF? 

(Forgive me, file size restrictions aren't letting me post screen grabs directly and I am too lazy to resize every picture)
 

Edited 3 hours ago by Mango

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think one thing we can all agree on is that PFF is absolute garbage.

 

Their highest graded Bills Offensive Player was Mack Hollins.

Their lowest graded Bills Offensive Player was Josh Allen.

 

 

 

I believe it was WGR that had a stat the other day that the Bills throw to the outside more than any team in the league. 

Idk how wr grades work but there were a lot of gray area plays where they probably put all the blame on josh and none on Mack when it should’ve been pretty even 

 

also pff really has no method of grading ‘josh expected Mack to route adjust/find a soft spot so he threw it to that spot and it looked like an inaccurate throw’ type plays.  They’re not at practice/in the huddle with these guys 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

 

 

Ovaltine?  Why not Roundtine?  That's gold Jerry!

[finn]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

@Einstein

 

Do you still feel the minority is right that Allen didn’t play bad?

Allen played so badly (as did others) that I wonder if he was concussed before he hit his head the first time. I'm convinced he was definitely concussed afterwards. As bad as his receivers and line were--and are--he's played with worse. That was a different quarterback out there. 

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

First pass: Incomplete. Allen first looks to Samuel in the flat in what looks to be a screen? Nobody within 8 yards of him. Holds the ball. 

 

No. That was not a screen. Notice how Kincaid and Hollins don’t block? Samuel was used as a purposeful decoy in order to get the cornerbacks to bite on him, opening up either Kincaid or Hollins for a large gain. Thats why Allen pump fakes to him. Unfortunately, they dont bite. 

 

Quote

2nd pass: Incomplete. One Simms already addressed. Cook beats his man and is the first read. The ball should have been thrown. 

 

You, like Simms, forget to mention that Allen had moved off the Cook read and into his progression before Cook gets open. He doesn’t have his eyes in the back of his head. By this point, Allen was flushed from the pocket by a blitzer that wasn’t picked up. 

 

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What are your thoughts on Mack Hollins being the highest graded offensive player for us on PFF against Houston?

 

I think that is ridiculous and I can’t defend PFF on that.

Edited 3 hours ago by Einstein

[Roundybout]

It was absolutely Allen’s worst game in a long time, probably since that Falcons game a couple seasons back where he had 3 picks. 
 

I believe he simply doesn’t trust the core around him and is trying to dagger teams instead of working with what they give him. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No. That was not a screen. Notice how Kincaid and Hollins don’t block? Samuel was used as a purposeful decoy in order to get the cornerbacks to bite on him, opening up either Kincaid or Hollins for a large gain. Unfortunately, they dont bite. 

 

If you don’t understand football, analyzing All-22 will not be a fruitful endeavor.

 

It was also pointed out on Cover1 that the Bills did a very poor job of manufacturing guys open this game...rub routes weren't done properly and were ineffective, guys were not executing their assignments properly, etc... looked more like what you would see on the first day of minicamp during installs where guys didn't exactly know what they were doing and didn't have the details down.

 

Essentially the entire offense got an F- for the day as a grade. Simply an unacceptable performance on many levels.

Edited 3 hours ago by Big Turk

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

I think that is ridiculous and I can’t defend PFF on that.

 

You also think it's ridiculous that they have Allen as the lowest graded offensive player too then right?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, finn said:

Allen played so badly (as did others) that I wonder if he was concussed before he hit his head the first time. I'm convinced he was definitely concussed afterwards. As bad as his receivers and line were--and are--he's played with worse. That was a different quarterback out there. 

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills on this one haha I legitimately have no idea if this is a pro or anti josh post I’m about to make but he has several games like this one per year often with even better surrounding talent than he has now. 
 

anyone being like whoaaa where did this come from is very strange to me. Yea he was bad but he bounces back from games like this literally every season.  I guess this is a pro and anti josh post 😂

 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

 

Cause you one of the special brain people. Us...not so lucky.

i mean i can tell who actually watched the video