Chris Simms- good and detailed breakdown of Allen’s struggles vs Houston

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I think that you are misunderstanding my viewpoint. I’m not saying his play didn’t look poor. The point is that it’s only because of the o-line and receivers. No QB in NFL history would have looked good with the compliments we put out there on Sunday. Not Brady. Not Manning. Not Mahomes. Not Montana. They all would have stunk. But it wouldn’t have been from their doing - it would have been from the pieces around them failing them.

 

Analogy; It’s like if I asked you to pour water into a cup, but kept hitting your arm as you poured it. Are you doing a bad job at pouring water in the cup? Well, more water spilled on the table instead of the cup. You must have been terrible at pouring water in a cup that day! Or… someone was hitting your arm as you were pouring it, and your performance appears poor because of it.

 

You and Simms can take 4 screenshots (out of 60) and claim he was a bad player that day. But it doesn’t make it so. It sure is easy hanging fruit to do so though, isn’t it? I’d hazard to guess that those saying he played poorly haven’t even reviewed the 22. Because if they had, they would be asking “where did I want Josh to throw this ball?”

 

Those 4 examples Simms showed were the BEST examples he could find the entire game of Allen playing poorly - and even 2 of those 4 were poor analysis (see my first post).

 

Okay, you are clearly saying that Simms is wrong and you're right.  

Again, is PFF wrong?  Or do they not provide context as well?  I cannot make it more straight forward than that and it's a yes or no question.

Is PFF wrong with their grading of Allen?  Yes or No.

 

I don't need a 1,000 character paragraph skirting the question.  I don't need a calculus model.

[SoonerBillsFan]

After watching that Simms is 100% Spot on. There is something wrong/Off with Josh. Plenty of plays to be made, 1st downs that continue drives. We all also want to know WTH has happened to the Deep ball, he used to be great at it. Right now he cant hit the side of a barn if he was standing in it.

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I didn't mean to make it seem like Josh rolling right is always bad. No, it is documented to be when he is at his most lethal. But defenses know that and prepare for it too. And both Houston and Baltimore did a good job at rushing to him and not giving him clean throws. They hit him a lot when he rolled out.

Yea it looked a little more mixed to me…I think the Texans gave the spy that responsibility and he was more focused on taking away Josh getting positive yards running and giving him more time on the rollout right mostly because they trusted their coverage would hold up.  Almost bit them in the end but almosts aren’t worth diddly 🤣. 
 

[KCNC]

I guess that is what bothers me most about the funk this team is in....that is JA17 is really not playing that well.  Personally, I think his left hand injury is much worse than they are letting on.  Still should not effect some of the decisions he is making the last 2 games.  Have defenses figured him out?  Maybe so.

[Einstein]

42 minutes ago, MJS said:

Brady would have shredded them, because he was happy taking the short easy passes all game long. He was great at maneuvering in the pocket. He stayed calm.

What short easy passes though? Do you mean the 4 total plays that Simms showed? Houston's entire defensive gameplan was to squat on our short stuff and dare us to throw deep. Thats why we got Hollins up deep a couple times.

 

Go watch the ALL-22. You may find a couple examples of times where a short pass was open, but 95% of the time they were completely blanketed. 

 

Edited October 10 by Einstein

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/watch/nfl/chris-simms-unbuttoned/how-josh-allens-recent-struggles-continued-vs-houston-texans
 

A lot of breakdowns of individual failed passing plays. Key points: he made some bad choices by not taking easy throws; he was not trusting what he was seeing and was off his clock. Inaccurate too. Simms says he rushed the throw to Hollins by throwing it too early; bad throw by Allen.

You are clearly suffering from a number of cognitive biases.  I would say that your particular wrong answer is about 2 standard deviations lower than the mean wrong answer assuming a normal distribution and a 95% confidence interval.  Its ok.  Not everyone can be as smart as @GoBills808

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, KCNC said:

I guess that is what bothers me most about the funk this team is in....that is JA17 is really not playing that well.  Personally, I think his left hand injury is much worse than they are letting on.  Still should not effect some of the decisions he is making the last 2 games.  Have defenses figured him out?  Maybe so.

I can’t take credit for this can’t remember who said it either though unfortunately 😂. But he seems to be telegraphing the PA fakes possibly because his hand is mangled which would be pretty impactful 

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

What short, easy passes? The ones that didn’t exist? Houston’s entire defensive gameplan was to squat on our short stuff and dare us to throw deep. 

 

Go watch the ALL-22. You may find a couple examples of times where a short pass was open, but 95% of the time they were completely blanketed. 

 

Or do you mean the 4 total plays that Simms showed?

Yea I’m sure Simms is exaggerating a bit haha haven’t watched it yet though…and these talking head/ex terrible qb types never really bring up throwing lanes on short throws either.  A lot of times they’ll circle an open looking receiver on the screen and be like LOOK HES OPEN when some mammoth of a man is putting his hands in the qbs face lol 

[uninja]

1 hour ago, Brand J said:

I remember Dan Orlovsky last year said that Allen needs to “grow up,” after that Jets performance. Said he literally holds the future of the staff in his hands with every throw he attempts. This game against Houston was another one of those mind-numbingly bad games he seems to have every year and I don’t get it. A 7 year vet who at this point has seen every defense you want to throw at him, by all accounts is very smart, can literally make any throw on the field, but is still getting taken to the wood shed mentally. Regardless of whatever offensive system he’s in, or who he’s surrounded by, his floor should be much higher than this and I don’t understand why it’s not. If you could be a fly on the wall in the box where Brady calls the game, no doubt he’s said at least once “he (Josh) is killing us.”

 

I hate it when it happens but some days the other team just gets in your head and absolutely has your number. Watched it plenty of times with Peyton or TB12, despite their long careers and success they played some absolutely ABYSMAL games sometimes.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

35 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another thread telling us that Allen was awful, terrible even Peterman like.  Just what we need.  And bashing Einstein an ardent Allen supporter is just to good to pass up.  I like Simms but his review is not the be all end all of what happened on Sunday.

 

I agree that Allen was bad.  But not awful as he didn't turn over the ball. But in the end so what?  Hell even in games the Bills win and the O looks great folks come on 2BD to trash Allen over 0ne or two bad passes. 

 

So going forward what's the biggest issue facing the Bills:

 

*  Allen having a bad day. 

 

*  The WR's having a bad day and not getting much separation.

 

*  The dropped passes by Kincaid.

 

*  The O line having a bad day.

 

*  The D having a bad start to the game putting the Bills in a hole.  After all in the last two games the Bills D has surrendered 5 TD's on 6 drives.

 

*  The coaches having a bad day.

 

Allen having an off day is not even in the top 5 issues coming out of this game IMO.  So why are so many obsessing over it? 

 

Nobody trashes Allen for one or two bad passes unless they are intercepted.

He did not turn the ball over only because the Texans dropped INTs twice and he was barely out of bounds by a toe when he fumbled the ball. 

 

Since the offense is so reliant on Allen with the lack of skill players, him playing poorly is the top 100 reasons to be concerned. He is going to have to play a very clean superhuman game to beat the Jets.  

[Kaenon]

Under pressure 41.7% of drop backs doesn't help.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another thread telling us that Allen was awful, terrible even Peterman like.  Just what we need.  And bashing Einstein an ardent Allen supporter is just to good to pass up.  I like Simms but his review is not the be all end all of what happened on Sunday.

 

I agree that Allen was bad.  But not awful as he didn't turn over the ball. But in the end so what?  Hell even in games the Bills win and the O looks great folks come on 2BD to trash Allen over 0ne or two bad passes. 

 

So going forward what's the biggest issue facing the Bills:

 

*  Allen having a bad day. 

 

*  The WR's having a bad day and not getting much separation.

 

*  The dropped passes by Kincaid.

 

*  The O line having a bad day.

 

*  The D having a bad start to the game putting the Bills in a hole.  After all in the last two games the Bills D has surrendered 5 TD's on 6 drives.

 

*  The coaches having a bad day.

 

Allen having an off day is not even in the top 5 issues coming out of this game IMO.  So why are so many obsessing over it? 

 

 

They are two separate points. You can criticise a player for playing poorly and still not think they are a problem going forward. You don't have to think someone is a problem for the long term to criticise them. 

 

Criticising Josh Allen for Sunday, first half especially, is legitimate. I don't think anyone here is arguing he is a top 5 concern on the team going forward. That would be insane. But he didn't play well on Sunday and probably bears more of the blame for the defeat than in any game since the Jets opener last year.

 

 

[Brand J]

42 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another thread telling us that Allen was awful, terrible even Peterman like.  Just what we need.  And bashing Einstein an ardent Allen supporter is just to good to pass up.  I like Simms but his review is not the be all end all of what happened on Sunday.

 

I agree that Allen was bad.  But not awful as he didn't turn over the ball. But in the end so what?  Hell even in games the Bills win and the O looks great folks come on 2BD to trash Allen over 0ne or two bad passes. 

 

So going forward what's the biggest issue facing the Bills:

 

*  Allen having a bad day. 

 

*  The WR's having a bad day and not getting much separation.

 

*  The dropped passes by Kincaid.

 

*  The O line having a bad day.

 

*  The D having a bad start to the game putting the Bills in a hole.  After all in the last two games the Bills D has surrendered 5 TD's on 6 drives.

 

*  The coaches having a bad day.

 

Allen having an off day is not even in the top 5 issues coming out of this game IMO.  So why are so many obsessing over it? 

 

Wasn’t it you who also said that Allen’s off game against the Jets in the opener last year wasn’t one of the five biggest issues in determining the outcome? 

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Nobody trashes Allen for one or two bad passes unless they are intercepted.

He did not turn the ball over only because the Texans dropped INTs twice and he was barely out of bounds by a toe when he fumbled the ball. 

 

Since the offense is so reliant on Allen with the lack of skill players, him playing poorly is the top 100 reasons to be concerned. He is going to have to play a very clean superhuman game to beat the Jets.  

I don't get fans sometimes. There is something off with Josh and we don't have the talent at WR to help him. Brady isn't scheming Kincaid open.  We were all happy the first 3 weeks, but it seems those are trailer park trash teams and now we aren't doing so well playing that offense against good teams.

[Logic]

I'm just glad there's a thread that's four pages and counting (rightly) criticizing Allen's play on Sunday.

Josh has become almost saintly to many Bills fans, to the point that any criticism of him is strictly verboten. It's ridiculous.

He's an elite quarterback who may end up in the Hall of Fame. He sometimes has bad games and makes boneheaded decisions. Both things can be true.

Oftentimes -- as is always the case in football -- there is blame to go around. But all too often, people want to pretend like Josh bears none of it, and many times, that's simply not the case.

[Einstein]

41 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea I’m sure Simms is exaggerating a bit haha haven’t watched it yet though…and these talking head/ex terrible qb types never really bring up throwing lanes on short throws either.  A lot of times they’ll circle an open looking receiver on the screen and be like LOOK HES OPEN when some mammoth of a man is putting his hands in the qbs face lol 

 

Yeah this is essentially what Simms did. And he could only find 4 total plays to point out. On one of the plays, he circled Cook, who got open after Allen already moved on in his progression (and while pressure was coming from Cooks side with a blitz). On another play, he wanted Allen to drop it into a bucket behind 2 CB’s and in front of a charging safety. Oh, and while he was about to get crushed because Spencer Brown got beat… 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Kaenon said:

Under pressure 41.7% of drop backs doesn't help.

 

It was around 80% in the first half. Shockingly, that is when people claim he played the worst.

Edited October 10 by Einstein

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, uninja said:

 

I hate it when it happens but some days the other team just gets in your head and absolutely has your number. Watched it plenty of times with Peyton or TB12, despite their long careers and success they played some absolutely ABYSMAL games sometimes.

 

Correct. I remember Rodgers started one of his MVP years with a stinker against the Saints in which he was atrocious. There was the famous KC game for Brady after which Belichick was asked if he would be reviewing the Quarterback position in the same presser as "we're on to Cincinnati". Great Quarterbacks have bad games. When they do it is fine to say so. I don't get why some people are so sensitive about it.

[Andrew Son]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There is something wrong with Josh and it's clear.  

It's who he is and always has been.  We have these discussions every year.

 

He's an amazing player and the highs are super high.  But it's a major rollercoaster with astonishingly low lows mixed in.  He's just a streaky, high variance player.

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, Einstein said:

What short easy passes though? Do you mean the 4 total plays that Simms showed? Houston's entire defensive gameplan was to squat on our short stuff and dare us to throw deep. Thats why we got Hollins up deep a couple times.

 

Go watch the ALL-22. You may find a couple examples of times where a short pass was open, but 95% of the time they were completely blanketed. 

 

 

It was actually to flood the middle of the field and make us beat them to the outside.

[Royale with Cheese]

I think one thing we can all agree on is that PFF is absolute garbage.

 

Their highest graded Bills Offensive Player was Mack Hollins.

Their lowest graded Bills Offensive Player was Josh Allen.

 

 

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was actually to flood the middle of the field and make us beat them to the outside.

 

I believe it was WGR that had a stat the other day that the Bills throw to the outside more than any team in the league. 

Edited October 10 by Royale with Cheese

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I believe it was WGR that had a stat the other day that the Bills throw to the outside more than team in the league. 

 

That wouldn't surprise me because the last two games Baltimore and Houston have been very deliberate in saying "if you wanna throw out there, go ahead, we'll take our chances, you are not beating us with tight ends and slot guys in the middle of the field."