Chris Simms- good and detailed breakdown of Allen’s struggles vs Houston

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The PFF question is irrelevant to the conversation. No person, scout, coach, service or otherwise is right 100% of the time.

 

What separates the good from the bad is their track record over time.

The person, scout, coach, service or otherwise is only correct when in coincides with your opinion.  👌 got it

[Jauronimo]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The person, scout, coach, service or otherwise is only correct when in coincides with your opinion.  👌 got it

That is consistent with my experience in using PFF data.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

If a train leaves Buffalo heading South and traveling at a speed of 60 mph and another train leaves Indianapolis heading East at a speed of 100 mph, how long before you find out that its all because of cognitive biases? 

How much would it cost to hire Neil Tyson Degrasse to measure and calculate the perfect trajectory of a wheel route to Cook?

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

For someone so smart you’re really oblivious to forward momentum.

 

the CB was moving with Coleman, he would’ve had to turn around and reach cooks speed in under a millisecond in order for your claim to be true.  Cook was already moving in that direction.  The corner had to stop, turn and run.  This really isn’t that difficult to grasp

It’s literally beyond stupid.  

[NewEra]

35 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Lol this is the first time i’ve seen someone reference another poster here as a source. And i’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but Gunnar has begun to soften his stance on this topic. Give me a few more days and I may have him completely converted.

 

As for Simms, it’s pretty clear he didn’t analyze the play because he completely misrepresented it. He didn’t even mention Coleman not clearing his defender. Or the missed run.

And you used the cornerback covering Keon as evidence that josh shouldn’t have thrown the ball- when in reality he had zero chance to make a play on the ball-  evidently you completely misrepresented the play as well.  

[Einstein]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

For someone so smart you’re really oblivious to forward momentum.

 

There was no forward momentum.

 

Coleman (and the defender), came to almost a complete stop.

 

I think Coleman thought he finished his job for that play. 

 

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

the CB was moving with Coleman, he would’ve had to turn around and reach cooks speed in under a millisecond in order for your claim to be true. 

 

Thats not true.

 

Starting from rest, he would have reached Cooks speed in 0.9 seconds.

 

I broke down the math of this here.

 

That defender is why Allen didn’t throw the ball. He stares right at him.

[billsfan89]

Even the best fall down sometimes. Josh had a bad game and even then the Bills were still in it. Hopefully the Bills can get Shakir back and get healthier overall while also having Brady adjust the gameplan. 

[colin]

32 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

There was no forward momentum.

 

Coleman (and the defender), came to almost a complete stop.

 

I think Coleman thought he finished his job for that play. 

 

 

Thats not true.

 

Starting from rest, he would have reached Cooks speed in 0.9 seconds.

 

I broke down the math of this here.

 

That defender is why Allen didn’t throw the ball. He stares right at him.

 

Even if cook could have come open, it's pretty clear Allen wasn't trusting anything and that includes his OL which is why he was rushing things.

 

Cosel made a good point of running  things Allen is comfortable with.  We gotta have some stuff that works, in the past it has mostly been creative stuff on first down but evidently we don't do that anymore.

[NewEra]

59 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

There was no forward momentum.

 

Coleman (and the defender), came to almost a complete stop.

 

I think Coleman thought he finished his job for that play. 

 

 

Thats not true.

 

Starting from rest, he would have reached Cooks speed in 0.9 seconds.

 

I broke down the math of this here.

 

That defender is why Allen didn’t throw the ball. He stares right at him.

Came to “almost a complete stop”…..meaning what?  Backward momentum? No.  Thanks.  
 

he still had to turn and get up to cooks speed, wasn’t going to happen. 

[balln]

I don’t see KE = 1/2 mv^2 anywhere yet as an explanation 

[WotAGuy]

9 minutes ago, balln said:

I don’t see KE = 1/2 mv^2 anywhere yet as an explanation 

That’s because that equation explains how the Bills’ PSL sales are lagging the expected rate, as @Einstein has proven many times before. 

[Einstein]

46 minutes ago, NewEra said:

he still had to turn and get up to cooks speed, wasn’t going to happen. 

 

Yeah, that’s called acceleration and was all explained in the kinematics. He would have caught Cook in 0.9 seconds.

 

What you’re experiencing is why we don’t judge acceleration and speed by eye.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Greg Cossell was on earlier and said what he saw in the Texans game was schematic issues, in particular we don’t have a midrange passing game.

 

He saw Allen playing too fast and had ball placement issues.   Needs to slow down mentally…few clean reads he didn’t process well.  But can be cleaned up.

I posted it right above you lol.

[Scott7975]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah, that’s called acceleration and was all explained in the kinematics. He would have caught Cook in 0.9 seconds.

 

What you’re experiencing is why we don’t judge acceleration and speed by eye.

 

I mean, I judge it by eye everyday when im sitting at a stop sign and pull out in front of people 😃

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

But why did the read need to be more difficult? That's the part I'm stuck on more. I mean I know it's fun breaking these plays down from overhead freeze frames, but realistically Josh actually has to make these reads in real time within 2 seconds. This year he isn't throwing to muddy reads, he's moving on. The coach's job is to make his job as easy as possible and eliminate the muddy reads. The minute details in the planning and the execution of the route spacing is below the level of other offenses. This should have been an easy read and an easy throw for a QB of Josh's caliber.

 

There is no dispute that he isn't getting much help. That is really clear. But it doesn't absolve Josh of what is ultimately a mistake.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Lol this is the first time i’ve seen someone reference another poster here as a source. And i’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but Gunnar has begun to soften his stance on this topic. Give me a few more days and I may have him completely converted.

 

As for Simms, it’s pretty clear he didn’t analyze the play because he completely misrepresented it. He didn’t even mention Coleman not clearing his defender. Or the missed run.

 

I haven't softened anything. My take now was my take at the start. I posted in Sunday freaking night after the game. Josh didn't get much help but he sucked the first half of that game. That was my feeling watching on TV. It was still my feeling when I got to the all22 on Tuesday. It was my feeling long before Chris Simms' breakdown. The play we are discussing here is simply a classic example. Josh isn't the only one who makes a mistake on that play. But he makes a mistake regardless, the right read despite the other exrcution failures was still the throw to Cook. And it is the sort of mistake that keeps the offense off schedule. Which happened a lot on Sunday night - the Bills were terrible on 1st down and I have broken down the first down passing game elsewhere in the board in detail. Again, if people want a mitigation there the point some of us were making pre-season that when you want to run a small ball offense it puts a very high tarrif on efficiency is true. But none of that changes the basic truth of what went on Sunday and part of that truth was first half especially was a poor performance by Josh. 

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Conversion therapy is almost never successful and its wildly unethical to boot.  Its 2024.  Get with the times.

 

It's even worse than that it is absue. Thankfully the UK Government is committed to banning it. Not before time. 

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I haven't softened anything. My take now was my take at the start. I posted in Sunday freaking night after the game. Josh didn't get much help but he sucked the first half of that game. That was my feeling watching on TV. It was still my feeling when I got to the all22 on Tuesday. It was my feeling long before Chris Simms' breakdown. The play we are discussing here is simply a classic example. Josh isn't the only one who makes a mistake on that play. But he makes a mistake regardless, the right read despite the other exrcution failures was still the throw to Cook. And it is the sort of mistake that keeps the offense off schedule. Which happened a lot on Sunday night - the Bills were terrible on 1st down and I have broken down the first down passing game elsewhere in the board in detail. Again, if people want a mitigation there the point some of us were making pre-season that when you want to run a small ball offense it puts a very high tarrif on efficiency is true. But none of that changes the basic truth of what went on Sunday and part of that truth was first half especially was a poor performance by Josh. 

 

It's even worse than that it is absue. Thankfully the UK Government is committed to banning it. Not before time. 

 

Goodness - I really have to work on my humor. People never seem to get it.

[Jauronimo]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I haven't softened anything. My take now was my take at the start. I posted in Sunday freaking night after the game. Josh didn't get much help but he sucked the first half of that game. That was my feeling watching on TV. It was still my feeling when I got to the all22 on Tuesday. It was my feeling long before Chris Simms' breakdown. The play we are discussing here is simply a classic example. Josh isn't the only one who makes a mistake on that play. But he makes a mistake regardless, the right read despite the other exrcution failures was still the throw to Cook. And it is the sort of mistake that keeps the offense off schedule. Which happened a lot on Sunday night - the Bills were terrible on 1st down and I have broken down the first down passing game elsewhere in the board in detail. Again, if people want a mitigation there the point some of us were making pre-season that when you want to run a small ball offense it puts a very high tarrif on efficiency is true. But none of that changes the basic truth of what went on Sunday and part of that truth was first half especially was a poor performance by Josh. 

 

It's even worse than that it is absue. Thankfully the UK Government is committed to banning it. Not before time. 

Look at the math!!

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

This is where math can help us figure out what will actually happen. That way we wont have to guess.
 

- Let's say Cook is running West at 4.5 yards per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

- Defender on Coleman is is 8 yards further west of Cook and 4 yards North and lets say he starts from rest (he isnt moving)

- Both players run at the same speed: 4.5 seconds per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

 

When do they reach the same position? Well, we have a kinematics equation we can use to start that process.

v^2 = v0^2 + 2(a)(x)

 

First let's figure out acceleration... 8.89^2 = 0 + 2a * 4 ...  79.08/8 = that's 9.88 yards/second accel

Then we have to figure out how fast Defender on Coleman can accelerate the 4 yards South to meet the same axis as Cook ... v = v0 + (a)(t)

8.89 = 0 + 9.88 (t) = 0.9 seconds.

During the 0.9 seconds that Defender on Coleman takes to go from standing still to reaching the axis of X, Cook who as you said is already running at full speed will cover 8.89 × 0.9 = 8.0 yards.

Cook started 8 yards back from the Defender on Coleman. 

So even though Cook makes up 8 yards in the time it takes the Defender on Coleman to go from standing still, to accelerating to the X axis that Cook is running on, they will reach intersection at approximately the same time and about the same speed.

In other words, the Defender would have absolutely caught up to Cook IF he leaves the second Josh decides to throw the ball.

Obviously there are some other variables involved. For example, stumbles, slips, yada yada.

The "eye test" for judging time and distance is notoriously unreliable. Always turn to math when possible.

 

.

 

I can't believe you spent that much time on a joke.  It got a chuckle from me though.

[Scott7975]

Im not going to debate any whose fault is this type stuff. I will say that I think Josh was off in this game.  I think a lot of that has to do with everyone else too though.  Nobody is helping the guy out. Not the receivers, not the line being fooled by simulated pressures and stuff (dating back to Ravens game,) not even the OC.  Even still, I expect him to play better.

 

Josh's biggest weakness to me is that he doesn't know how to settle down.  He gets that clock in his head and it sticks with him the whole game. If he would just slow down a tick I think he would be fine.  Even the greats struggle with this sometimes. Rodgers struggles with it now that he is practically a statue.  Mahomes and Burrow are great at this. Even they falter once in a while. Its that part of the game that I think those two QBs are better than Allen at.

 

To me, its the OC's job to get this back on track and keep it there. Its his job to have answers for this type of stuff during games and between games. It's his job to give Allen plays where he can settle down and get comfortable with. He isn't doing a good job of it IMO.  Cosell points this out pretty well and more. That guy watches a lot of Bills film and he knows what he is talking about.

Edited October 12 by Scott7975

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I can't believe you spent that much time on a joke.  It got a chuckle from me though.

 

The math wasn’t the joke! Math is never a joke!

 

I was joking that Gunnar was softening. Because he never softens. He digs in (I do too). But he didn’t get it. I’m bad at jokes.