Chris Simms- good and detailed breakdown of Allen’s struggles vs Houston

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Is Usain Bolts faster twin covering Coleman?  If not, there’s no chance he can recover from his momentum from covering Coleman.  Cook would’ve roasted him no matter what.

In what world do you need to be Usain Bolt to run less distance than another person?

The defender is 7 yards further downfield than Cook. He has a 7 yard head start, AND the angle. 

If you think it takes Usain Bolt to run the black line, faster than Cook runs the red line, then there is no point in discussing further.

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

wrong

 

Coleman's man is why Allen moves off the read

This is correct.

It's actually the entire design of the play.

Brady has 2 clear out routes - one on each side of the field.

The problem is that both failed. Coleman didnt slant far enough and Knox whiffed on his rub.

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

On the specific play I agree that Coleman doesn't clear the defender out as well as he should the ball should still go to Cook on that play. There is plenty of room to put that ball outside and in a place where only Cook can make a play - even if that is a safer throw and restricts the YAC that is less of a concern because it's first down.

 

There may have been. No argument there. 

But you have to remember that Allen has to make a risk/reward choice here. 

He chose to move on to the rub on the other side. I don't blame him for that. It's only a lower percentage play because Knox missed his assignment. 

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I understand why Josh comes off it, people did not execute around him. 

Ding! Ding! Ding! Winner! Winner! Winner!

 

Bingo.

 

[Brand J]

Just now, Einstein said:

In what world do you need to be Usain Bolt to run less distance than another person?

The defender is 7 yards further downfield than Cook. He has a 7 yard head start, AND the angle. 

If you think it takes Usain Bolt to run the black line, faster than Cook runs the red line, then there is no point in discussing further.

Einstein, he doesn’t have a head start because he’s defending Coleman. He’s not physically capable of defending Cook down the field here unless he bailed from his primary responsibility to do so. He’s flat footed, looking at the QB, right on Coleman, while Cook is on the outside speeding by. It’s not as simple as “this guy only has to run here, this guy has to run 7 more yards here,” it happens in the blink of an eye, less than a second. The only way he can cover Cook down the field is to leave Coleman, but his hips clearly aren’t turned to run. He’s a non factor in the play. This is getting bizarre, guys.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

In what world do you need to be Usain Bolt to run less distance than another person?

The defender is 7 yards further downfield than Cook. He has a 7 yard head start, AND the angle. 

If you think it takes Usain Bolt to run the black line, faster than Cook runs the red line, then there is no point in discussing further.

 

This is correct.

It's actually the entire design of the play.

Brady has 2 clear out routes - one on each side of the field.

The problem is that both failed. Coleman didnt slant far enough and Knox whiffed on his rub.

 

 

There may have been. No argument there. 

But you have to remember that Allen has to make a risk/reward choice here. 

He chose to move on to the rub on the other side. I don't blame him for that. It's only a lower percentage play because Knox missed his assignment. 

 

Ding! Ding! Ding! Winner! Winner! Winner!

 

Bingo.

 

Yes

 

Again- Two half field reads, Allen presnap motions cook to ID the LB in man and correctly chooses that matchup then moves off it when Colemans defender muddies the read

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Stop protecting Simms. He was terrible in this analysis. 

 

Yes, he was. And I'm a Simms fan saying that. It was not his finest hour.

But I can understand why he screwed up.

The issue resolves around people not understanding that these analysts have to talk about 32 teams each week. A fan only watches the clip the analyst makes for their team. But the analyst still has 31 other teams to analyze. Its simply not possible to review tape for them all.

So... They just take what the interns give them and try to make lemonade out of it. Example: Clueless intern sees Josh was 9 of 30 or whatever it was, concludes he was bad, takes a few clips of footage, circles open guys, and marks it ready for production.

Notice how most of the plays were at the beginning of game? It's because the intern takes the first things he sees (beginning of the game), and moves on to the next team.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes, he was. And I'm a Simms fan saying that. It was not his finest hour.

But I can understand why he screwed up.

The issue resolves around people not understanding that these analysts have to talk about 32 teams each week. A fan only watches the clip the analyst makes for their team. But the analyst still has 31 other teams to analyze. Its simply not possible to review tape for them all.

So... They just take what the interns give them and try to make lemonade out of it. Example: Clueless intern sees Josh was 9 of 30 or whatever it was, concludes he was bad, takes a few clips of footage, circles open guys, and marks it ready for production.

Notice how most of the plays were at the beginning of game? It's because the intern takes the first things he sees (beginning of the game), and moves on to the next team.

I was joking fwiw

 

I like Simms. Just because I disagree w one play doesn't mean I think I know more than him

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Either bad design or bad spacing from miscommunication 

 

This throw is typically layered in over the primary defender so all these guys saying Colemans man would have to be Usain Bolt have somehow never seen us run this play before

 

And again here's the play for anybody that wants to watch it for themselves:

 

This is when Allen wants to be throwing to the wheel:

 

 

Don't need to be Usain Bolt's twin to get off of Coleman as soon as Allen's arm moves forward and get in the path of the layered throw. I'm guessing Coleman is supposed to be running a pick but his defender has leverage behind him so that isn't getting it done. At this point Allen wants to wait for Cook to get level with Coleman before throwing over him but Edwards gets walked back in the pocket and at that point he goes into escape mode.

 

I'm not trying to absolve Allen of his mistakes at all, it's just a lot more complicated than people want to admit. The spacing of the pick makes no sense and makes the play way harder than it needs to be. When you watch Travis Kelce end up so wide open no one else is even on the screen with him, it's because the Chiefs plan and execute their route spacing and timing to perfection. Little things like this that you don't notice live are what separate decent coaching from elite coaching.

 

The one play Chris Simms breaks down that I do think Allen missed on was this one on 3rd and 13:

 

Allen playing like his usual self would absolutely rip that out to Coleman and get us to 4th and short at worst. This is a good example of what I said earlier in the thread, that Allen's internal clock appeared to be moving a tick too fast in the 1st half.

 

Probably over analyzing the game at this point, I just can't help myself when I see people on here actually say things like "Allen was the main reason we lost this game" or "Allen was the worst player on the field." He clearly was not the best version of himself, but he also got exactly zero help from his play caller and exactly one play where a pass catcher went above and beyond for him. All of our problems got exposed by well coached defenses two weeks in a row.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

And again here's the play for anybody that wants to watch it for themselves:

 

This is when Allen wants to be throwing to the wheel:

 

 

Don't need to be Usain Bolt's twin to get off of Coleman as soon as Allen's arm moves forward and get in the path of the layered throw. I'm guessing Coleman is supposed to be running a pick but his defender has leverage behind him so that isn't getting it done. At this point Allen wants to wait for Cook to get level with Coleman before throwing over him but Edwards gets walked back in the pocket and at that point he goes into escape mode.

 

I'm not trying to absolve Allen of his mistakes at all, it's just a lot more complicated than people want to admit. The spacing of the pick makes no sense and makes the play way harder than it needs to be. When you watch Travis Kelce end up so wide open no one else is even on the screen with him, it's because the Chiefs plan and execute their route spacing and timing to perfection. Little things like this that you don't notice live are what separate decent coaching from elite coaching.

 

The one play Chris Simms breaks down that I do think Allen missed on was this one on 3rd and 13:

 

Allen playing like his usual self would absolutely rip that out to Coleman and get us to 4th and short at worst. This is a good example of what I said earlier in the thread, that Allen's internal clock appeared to be moving a tick too fast in the 1st half.

 

Probably over analyzing the game at this point, I just can't help myself when I see people on here actually say things like "Allen was the main reason we lost this game" or "Allen was the worst player on the field." He clearly was not the best version of himself, but he also got exactly zero help from his play caller and exactly one play where a pass catcher went above and beyond for him. All of our problems got exposed by well coached defenses two weeks in a row.

Yeah

 

As run I think this gets picked a lot tbh

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Brand J said:

He’s not physically capable of defending Cook down the field here unless he bailed from his primary responsibility to do so. 

If Josh throws the ball, the defender leaves Coleman. That's how it works. As soon as he starts his throwing motion, that defender is leaving Coleman. This happens all the time in the NFL.

And Josh has to make that determination in a fraction of a second. Josh from a couple of years ago, throws that ball. And Josh from a couple of years ago, maybe gets picked off. 

You can literally see Josh, on tape, stare at that defender before moving on. 

 

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Don't need to be Usain Bolt's twin to get off of Coleman as soon as Allen's arm moves forward and get in the path of the layered throw. 

Yeah, I find it surprising that anyone thought one would need to be Usain Bolt to beat someone in a foot race with a head start. I think my fat butt may have had a chance.

[Pete]

Josh is going to play horrible, until we can beat Cover 1.  

[Brand J]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

If Josh throws the ball, the defender leaves Coleman. That's how it works. As soon as he starts his throwing motion, that defender is leaving Coleman. This happens all the time in the NFL.

And Josh has to make that determination in a fraction of a second. Josh from a couple of years ago, throws that ball. And Josh from a couple of years ago, maybe gets picked off. 

You can literally see Josh, on tape, stare at that defender before moving on. 

 

Yeah, I find it surprising that anyone thought one would need to be Usain Bolt to beat someone in a foot race with a head start. I think my fat butt may have had a chance.

If Josh threw the ball to Cook what you would’ve seen is Coleman’s defender peel off and start chasing after Cook. What you wouldn’t see is him level or ahead of Cook. He wouldn’t factor into knocking the ball down or an INT unless the pass was under thrown.
 

You keep saying the guy has a head start… they’re not running the same race. One is sprinting upfield, the other is flat footed looking at the QB. This isn’t the same scenario where you see other defenders peel off to factor into the play because this man is too tight on Coleman. He’s not in a position to hang with the player sprinting past him. He’d only be chasing the play down.

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

There may have been. No argument there. 

But you have to remember that Allen has to make a risk/reward choice here. 

He chose to move on to the rub on the other side. I don't blame him for that. It's only a lower percentage play because Knox missed his assignment. 

 

Ding! Ding! Ding! Winner! Winner! Winner!

 

Bingo.

 

 

Understanding why doesn't mean it wasn't Josh's mistake.

[Scott7975]

This is the Allen you get when you are too worried about interceptions.  This is the Allen you get when you are too worried about running the football but then don't have anything to play off of running the football.

Edited October 11 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Understanding why doesn't mean it wasn't Josh's mistake.

Calling it a mistake ignores some of the more conservative tendencies they're pretty clearly trying to build into the offense

 

I'm seeing him turn down a lot of looks he usually attacks on film.

[Scott7975]

This guy watches more film on the Bills than probably any media guy

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Understanding why doesn't mean it wasn't Josh's mistake.

Greg Cossell was on earlier and said what he saw in the Texans game was schematic issues, in particular we don’t have a midrange passing game.

 

He saw Allen playing too fast and had ball placement issues.   Needs to slow down mentally…few clean reads he didn’t process well.  But can be cleaned up.

Edited October 11 by Royale with Cheese

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Greg Cossell was on earlier and said what he saw in the Texans game was schematic issues, in particular we don’t have a midrange passing game.

 

He saw Allen playing too fast and had ball placement issues.

He literally says the thing that stands out is an OC issue

[Einstein]

30 minutes ago, Brand J said:

You keep saying the guy has a head start… they’re not running the same race. One is sprinting upfield, the other is flat footed looking at the QB. 

This is where math can help us figure out what will actually happen. That way we wont have to guess.
 

- Let's say Cook is running West at 4.5 yards per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

- Defender on Coleman is is 8 yards further west of Cook and 4 yards North and lets say he starts from rest (he isnt moving)

- Both players run at the same speed: 4.5 seconds per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

 

When do they reach the same position? Well, we have a kinematics equation we can use to start that process.

v^2 = v0^2 + 2(a)(x)

 

First let's figure out acceleration... 8.89^2 = 0 + 2a * 4 ...  79.08/8 = that's 9.88 yards/second accel

Then we have to figure out how fast Defender on Coleman can accelerate the 4 yards South to meet the same axis as Cook ... v = v0 + (a)(t)

8.89 = 0 + 9.88 (t) = 0.9 seconds.

During the 0.9 seconds that Defender on Coleman takes to go from standing still to reaching the axis of X, Cook who as you said is already running at full speed will cover 8.89 × 0.9 = 8.0 yards.

Cook started 8 yards back from the Defender on Coleman. 

So even though Cook makes up 8 yards in the time it takes the Defender on Coleman to go from standing still, to accelerating to the X axis that Cook is running on, they will reach intersection at approximately the same time and about the same speed.

In other words, the Defender would have absolutely caught up to Cook IF he leaves the second Josh decides to throw the ball.

Obviously there are some other variables involved. For example, stumbles, slips, yada yada.

The "eye test" for judging time and distance is notoriously unreliable. Always turn to math when possible.

 

.

 

Edited October 11 by Einstein

[balln]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This is where math can help us figure out what will actually happen. That way we wont have to guess.
 

- Let's say Cook is running West at 4.5 yards per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

- Defender on Coleman is is 8 yards further west of Cook and 4 yards North and lets say he starts from rest (he isnt moving)

- Both players run at the same speed: 4.5 seconds per 40 yards (8.89 yards per second)

 

When do they reach the same position? Well, we have a kinematics equation we can use to start that process.

v^2 = v0^2 + 2(a)(x)

 

First let's figure out acceleration... 8.89^2 = 0 + 2a * 4 ...  79.08/8 = that's 9.88 yards/second accel

Then we have to figure out how fast Defender on Coleman can accelerate the 4 yards South to meet the same axis as Cook ... v = v0 + (a)(t)

8.89 = 0 + 9.88 (t) = 0.9 seconds.

During the 0.9 seconds that Defender on Coleman takes to go from standing still to reaching the axis of X, Cook who as you said is already running at full speed will cover 8.89 × 0.9 = 8.0 yards.

Cook started 8 yards back from the Defender on Coleman. 

So even though Cook makes up 8 yards in the time it takes the Defender on Coleman to go from standing still, to accelerating to the X axis that Cook is running on, they will reach intersection at approximately the same time and about the same speed.

In other words, the Defender would have absolutely caught up to Cook IF he leaves the second Josh decides to throw the ball.

Obviously there are some other variables involved. For example, stumbles, slips, yada yada.

The "eye test" for judging time and distance is notoriously unreliable. Always turn to math when possible.

 

.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He literally says the thing that stands out is an OC issue

The first thing I put was schematic issues.  Im guessing in your mind he didn’t say a single negative thing about Allen.

You are so incredibly hypersensitive about any Allen criticism.  
Allen wasn’t the main issue but he also didn’t play well either.  Both can be true.  When you read this, you hear “Allen was the only issue.”  

Stop being so emotional.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Understanding why doesn't mean it wasn't Josh's mistake.

 

But why did the read need to be more difficult? That's the part I'm stuck on more. I mean I know it's fun breaking these plays down from overhead freeze frames, but realistically Josh actually has to make these reads in real time within 2 seconds. This year he isn't throwing to muddy reads, he's moving on. The coach's job is to make his job as easy as possible and eliminate the muddy reads. The minute details in the planning and the execution of the route spacing is below the level of other offenses. This should have been an easy read and an easy throw for a QB of Josh's caliber.