3rd Down Conversion rate potentially the most worrying sign for this offense

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I think that has to do with familiarity. With most QBs, WRs are taught to come back to the ball when the QB scrambles. With Josh, they need to take off downfield and let him use his cannon. But I agree that this should have been worked out in camp.

 

The plays I'm seeing they're not doing anything. It's mind boggling. They're standing still or moving in the opposite direction.

 

Case in point:

 

Look at all that space available for Hollins to sit down and make himself an easy target. Instead he cluelessly continues running across the field in the opposite direction of Allen's scramble. This should be an automatic conversion with Allen's skill set.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

This has been substantially mitigated by going 7/7 on fourth down.  That's insane.  They've effectively managed to gain a first down on 25 of the 56 times they've faced third down which is 46%. 

I went down a bit of a rabbit hole on this.  Washington has the best 3rd down conversion rate in the league at 52%.  On top of that, they’re 8/8 on fourth down.  They’ve managed first downs 65% of the times they’ve faced third down.

 

The Browns are worst in the league at 18%.  They’re 9/15 on fourth down.

 

The most amazing stat I found is that the Dolphins have gone 2/14 on fourth down.  They’ve literally turned the ball over on downs 12 times already this season.  That’s two and a half times a game.  They’ve only converted 20 third downs out of 66 tries, 22 if you include fourth down attempts.

[GoBills808]

58 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The plays I'm seeing they're not doing anything. It's mind boggling. They're standing still or moving in the opposite direction.

 

Case in point:

 

Look at all that space available for Hollins to sit down and make himself an easy target. Instead he cluelessly continues running across the field in the opposite direction of Allen's scramble. This should be an automatic conversion with Allen's skill set.

someone said of this play Allen needed to 'set his base' lol

 

 

[nedboy7]

Gabe Davis would be a solid starter on this team.  That was not the plan going in.  Absurd. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Gabe Davis would be a solid starter on this team.  That was not the plan going in.  Absurd. 

mm was always pretty firm that moving on from davis was the right move, he was an awkward fit from the beginning imo

 

but i also thought the plan was going to be replacing him w someone better 😂😂

[nedboy7]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

mm was always pretty firm that moving on from davis was the right move, he was an awkward fit from the beginning imo

 

but i also thought the plan was going to be replacing him w someone better 😂😂

He was. But turns out things can get worse. 

[zow2]

I've always said the two most important factors that determine an NFL game are turnovers and 3rd down conversions.  

[Scott7975]

The third down conversion rate is bad because we are predictable and bad on first down and not so good on second down. Then they expect Josh to be Superman with bad receivers. All they need to do is man up and bring pressure. Game over. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Worth pointing out that their third down defense is bad too, 24th in the league (44 percent conversion rate). Weak performance on third down points to a relatively untalented roster - guys that can't win individual matchups on gotta have it plays.  

 

3rd and Long has been McD's kryptonite since he has been here, regardless of roster. My friends and I have a running joke about "3rd and 18". It's pretty much a given the opponent will pick it up.

[peterpan]

I personally think the drop off on 3rd down is Allen’s running ability seems off.  He isn’t running like he used to.  Not with a bust and without commitment.  
 

a number of third down throws he missed last week he’d have ran for a first in years past 

[thewookie1]

3 minutes ago, peterpan said:

I personally think the drop off on 3rd down is Allen’s running ability seems off.  He isn’t running like he used to.  Not with a bust and without commitment.  
 

a number of third down throws he missed last week he’d have ran for a first in years past 

While his hand heals he can’t use his left hand to stiff arm or really fight through tacklers. So he’s effectively left with either sliding or going out of bounds. 

[Rew]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

3rd and Long has been McD's kryptonite since he has been here, regardless of roster. My friends and I have a running joke about "3rd and 18". It's pretty much a given the opponent will pick it up.

I cant find a source on 3rd and long, but defense rankings on 3rd down historically are:

 

2017: 11

2018: 9

2019: 9

2020: 19

2021: 1

2022: 6

2023: 18

 

I don't personally see any trend other than "top half of the league", certainly not poor.  In context the bills typically (over the last 4-5 years) are playing with a significant lead where opponents are significantly more aggressive and less inclined to play the field position battle, which may result in slightly worse rankings than in a neutral situation.  5-20 are all usually tightly grouped too, probably within bias error.

[Billznut]

The Bills had 26 first down plays vs Houston and ran on 20 of them. They are consistently not gaining a lot on the ground on 1st down runs. This is leading to more 3rd and longs which is why they aren’t converting at nearly the pace they used to. In past seasons, the Bills used to pass on first down as much as anyone in the league. They have become more conservative over the past two seasons, running way more than previous years which is leading to a lot more first down runs and not being very successful at it which in turn leads to the 3rd and longs that are statistically much harder to convert. 

[BananaB]

Guess they gotta start having a Canadian football mindset

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Guess they gotta start having a Canadian football mindset

You want to punt on third down?