3rd Down Conversion rate potentially the most worrying sign for this offense

[Big Turk]

This is not a good sign, IMO...

 

Even in their first 3 games when they were scoring a ton of points the Bills were only converting 33.33% of their 3rd downs.  

 

Now after the last two games that has dropped to 32.14% which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

 

Over the past 4 years, the Bills have converted 3rd downs at a historic rate never seen in NFL history at 49.8% over that period of time.  That's absurd.  No matter what the down and distance, the Bills converted 1 out of every 2 3rd downs.

 

Last year they converted 49.39% of 3rd downs, best in the NFL.

 

It is a very worrying sign that the Bills are not converting well on 3rd downs, even when things were going well on offense.  

 

To go from 1st in the NFL over the last 4 years to 25th and having over a 17% decrease in efficiency thru 5 games this year is a stunning dropoff. To put it in perspective, both New England and the Jets have a better 3rd down conversion rate than we do.  There is NO WAY that should happen when you have Josh Allen on your team.

 

If they want to fix this offense, they need to fix the 3rd down conversion rate. The offense is not ever getting a chance to get into a flow because they are constantly in start-stop mode on offense.

 

Seems like that is where the lack of a #1 WR option comes into play the most...Allen has nobody he can count on in 3rd down situations...Shakir might become that guy but he isn't yet.

Edited October 9 by Big Turk

[Thurman#1]

Five games is still too small a sample. It just is.

 

If it keeps being true, it would be worrisome.

 

Only 56 third down situations so far. If they'd succeeded five more times they'd be in the top ten, and they're only eight conversions away from the top five.

 

Now, how many of those five or eight 3rd down failures came on horrible drops, or bad penalty calls or on end of game kneeldowns or on 3rd and 27 situations? 

 

It's why you can't make solid conclusions with small sample size. Maybe our situations were similar to most teams. Or maybe not. Maybe we're as bad as these numbers say we are. Or maybe not.

 

IMO we see improvement, but how much? Particularly in our WR group we've got so many guys who are working with Josh and each other for the first time and it shows.

 

 

Edited October 9 by Thurman#1

[Sojourner]

Would be interesting to see the correlation between the amount of converted downs that are short to those that are “3rd and long”. 
 

Id go out on a limb and say the majority of failed third downs are those that are 6+ yards left to the down line. 
 

Might be wrong though. Probably wrong lol

[HOUSE]

I was just drinking my coffee, now this.....

[Marcus Aurelius]

3rd Down Conversion rate potentially the most worrying thing about the DEFENSE also ...

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

This is not a good sign, IMO...

 

Even in their first 3 games when they were scoring a ton of points the Bills were only converting 33.33% of their 3rd downs.  

 

Now after the last two games that has dropped to 32.14% which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

 

Over the past 4 years, the Bills have converted 3rd downs at a historic rate never seen in NFL history at 49.8% over that period of time.  That's absurd.  No matter what the down and distance, the Bills converted 1 out of every 2 3rd downs.

 

Last year they converted 49.39% of 3rd downs, best in the NFL.

 

It is a very worrying sign that the Bills are not converting well on 3rd downs, even when things were going well on offense.  

 

To go from 1st in the NFL over the last 4 years to 25th and having over a 17% decrease in efficiency thru 5 games this year is a stunning dropoff. To put it in perspective, both New England and the Jets have a better 3rd down conversion rate than we do.  There is NO WAY that should happen when you have Josh Allen on your team.

 

If they want to fix this offense, they need to fix the 3rd down conversion rate. The offense is not ever getting a chance to get into a flow because they are constantly in start-stop mode on offense.

 

Seems like that is where the lack of a #1 WR option comes into play the most...Allen has nobody he can count on in 3rd down situations...Shakir might become that guy but he isn't yet.

Weren't we #1 in 3rd down rate last year?  For awhile now we have been very good at 3rd down %, and now suddenly we suck. Where is the ghost of Cole Beasley when you need him?

 

[Returntoglory]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Five games is still too small a sample. It just is.

 

If it keeps being true, it would be worrisome.

Wrong.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

It's going to be tough to go down the whole line  

 

Arizona - 3/9 33% - 2/2 on 4th downs (both less than 2 yards), 1 3rd and 19 after a penalty, another 3rd an 14 after penalty.

Miami - 3/9 33% - 0/3 in 2nd half, and after the pick 6 it was all but ballgame.  

Jax - 6/11 - Thats a good game.

Baltimore - 3/13 - 17, 8, 10, 10, 12 - so 5 times they faced 3rd and long.

Houston -  3/14 - 20, 11, 9, 14, 10, 9, 8, 10, 10.  This alone is absurd, 9 times they faced 3rd and long.  

Edited October 9 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Lost]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

This is not a good sign, IMO...

 

Even in their first 3 games when they were scoring a ton of points the Bills were only converting 33.33% of their 3rd downs.  

 

Now after the last two games that has dropped to 32.14% which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

 

Over the past 4 years, the Bills have converted 3rd downs at a historic rate never seen in NFL history at 49.8% over that period of time.  That's absurd.  No matter what the down and distance, the Bills converted 1 out of every 2 3rd downs.

 

Last year they converted 49.39% of 3rd downs, best in the NFL.

 

It is a very worrying sign that the Bills are not converting well on 3rd downs, even when things were going well on offense.  

 

To go from 1st in the NFL over the last 4 years to 25th and having over a 17% decrease in efficiency thru 5 games this year is a stunning dropoff. To put it in perspective, both New England and the Jets have a better 3rd down conversion rate than we do.  There is NO WAY that should happen when you have Josh Allen on your team.

 

If they want to fix this offense, they need to fix the 3rd down conversion rate. The offense is not ever getting a chance to get into a flow because they are constantly in start-stop mode on offense.

 

Seems like that is where the lack of a #1 WR option comes into play the most...Allen has nobody he can count on in 3rd down situations...Shakir might become that guy but he isn't yet.

 

Just my opinion but the 12 personnel and other heavy packages are killing this passing offense.   spread out the formation, run either 11 personnel with Kincaid off the line of scrimmage or bring in 4 wideouts and dial up some more quick hitters.   Having extra tight ends in to help block isn't doing much because they're whiffing their blocks most of the time anyway and leaving only 2 pass options which are usually both gonna be double covered.  

[DrDawkinstein]

So we suck on 1st down, and we suck on 3rd down. I think I see a problem.

[GolfandBills]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

This is not a good sign, IMO...

 

Even in their first 3 games when they were scoring a ton of points the Bills were only converting 33.33% of their 3rd downs.  

 

Now after the last two games that has dropped to 32.14% which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

 

Over the past 4 years, the Bills have converted 3rd downs at a historic rate never seen in NFL history at 49.8% over that period of time.  That's absurd.  No matter what the down and distance, the Bills converted 1 out of every 2 3rd downs.

 

Last year they converted 49.39% of 3rd downs, best in the NFL.

 

It is a very worrying sign that the Bills are not converting well on 3rd downs, even when things were going well on offense.  

 

To go from 1st in the NFL over the last 4 years to 25th and having over a 17% decrease in efficiency thru 5 games this year is a stunning dropoff. To put it in perspective, both New England and the Jets have a better 3rd down conversion rate than we do.  There is NO WAY that should happen when you have Josh Allen on your team.

 

If they want to fix this offense, they need to fix the 3rd down conversion rate. The offense is not ever getting a chance to get into a flow because they are constantly in start-stop mode on offense.

 

Seems like that is where the lack of a #1 WR option comes into play the most...Allen has nobody he can count on in 3rd down situations...Shakir might become that guy but he isn't yet.

Josh Allen isn’t running nearly as much which will bring that number down too.  Compounded with a terrible passing offense. 

Edited October 9 by GolfandBills

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Weren't we #1 in 3rd down rate last year?  For awhile now we have been very good at 3rd down %, and now suddenly we suck. Where is the ghost of Cole Beasley when you need him?

 

 

Yes...we have ben basically #1 over the last 4 years, converting at 49.8% which is absurd.

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes...we have ben basically #1 over the last 4 years, converting at 49.8% which is absurd.

And huge numbers of those conversions were sideline passes to Diggs or Beasley. 

[Billl]

This has been substantially mitigated by going 7/7 on fourth down.  That's insane.  They've effectively managed to gain a first down on 25 of the 56 times they've faced third down which is 46%. 

Edited October 9 by Billl

[HappyDays]

I've brought this up in a couple threads but the WRs need to do a way better job in scramble drills. In the past Allen has had WRs like Beasley and Diggs that knew how to make themselves available. A lot of our past 3rd down conversion success was Allen just making magic happen but he needs his pass catchers to be on the same page. Shakir is the only one that has done a good job of this. Against Houston alone there are plays on tape where MVS, Hollins, and Samuel each failed to do anything to help their QB during a scramble drill on 3rd down. Needs to be a focus of the coaching moving forward.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I've brought this up in a couple threads but the WRs need to do a way better job in scramble drills. In the past Allen has had WRs like Beasley and Diggs that knew how to make themselves available. A lot of our past 3rd down conversion success was Allen just making magic happen but he needs his pass catchers to be on the same page. Shakir is the only one that has done a good job of this. Against Houston alone there are plays on tape where MVS, Hollins, and Samuel each failed to do anything to help their QB during a scramble drill on 3rd down. Needs to be a focus of the coaching moving forward.

I think that has to do with familiarity. With most QBs, WRs are taught to come back to the ball when the QB scrambles. With Josh, they need to take off downfield and let him use his cannon. But I agree that this should have been worked out in camp.

[dave mcbride]

Worth pointing out that their third down defense is bad too, 24th in the league (44 percent conversion rate). Weak performance on third down points to a relatively untalented roster - guys that can't win individual matchups on gotta have it plays.  

[Big Turk]

53 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Five games is still too small a sample. It just is.

 

If it keeps being true, it would be worrisome.

 

Only 56 third down situations so far. If they'd succeeded five more times they'd be in the top ten, and they're only eight conversions away from the top five.

 

Now, how many of those five or eight 3rd down failures came on horrible drops, or bad penalty calls or on end of game kneeldowns or on 3rd and 27 situations? 

 

It's why you can't make solid conclusions with small sample size. Maybe our situations were similar to most teams. Or maybe not. Maybe we're as bad as these numbers say we are. Or maybe not.

 

IMO we see improvement, but how much? Particularly in our WR group we've got so many guys who are working with Josh and each other for the first time and it shows.

 

 

 

Top ten isn't the bar for this team. #1 in the NFL is the bar and small sample size or not they are a far cry from it.

 

I can pretty much guarantee they were nowhere near 25th in the NFL thru 5 games in any of the other 4 years.

5 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I think that has to do with familiarity. With most QBs, WRs are taught to come back to the ball when the QB scrambles. With Josh, they need to take off downfield and let him use his cannon. But I agree that this should have been worked out in camp.

 

Or catch the ball.

 

Kincaid did a great job making himself available on that 3rd down throw along the sidelines where he started going deep and then stopped and came back to Allen, Allen throws a great ball to him and he can't catch it clean on his way out of bounds and it ends up not being completed.

 

But yes, in general, other than Shakir and sometimes Kincaid they need to be much better 

Edited October 9 by Big Turk

[JohnBonhamRocks]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I've brought this up in a couple threads but the WRs need to do a way better job in scramble drills. In the past Allen has had WRs like Beasley and Diggs that knew how to make themselves available. A lot of our past 3rd down conversion success was Allen just making magic happen but he needs his pass catchers to be on the same page. Shakir is the only one that has done a good job of this. Against Houston alone there are plays on tape where MVS, Hollins, and Samuel each failed to do anything to help their QB during a scramble drill on 3rd down. Needs to be a focus of the coaching moving forward.

This seemed to me to be one of Davis’ strengths as well

[Big Turk]

Just now, JohnBonhamRocks said:

This seemed to me to be one of Davis’ strengths as well

 

Davis had some of the sweetest sideline catches you'll ever see.