Rookie WR Separation win-rates thru week 5

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Data:

 

 

 

 

Look at all those sperms trying to find their way. 

[Mister Defense]

Coleman is young, smart, and really dedicated to the game. He looks pretty good for a rookie.  Not surprised he is doing well, so far, at separating.

 

I think this, and his physicality and other traits will mean he will get better and better as this year progresses.

 

I believe he will more clearly look like a quality #2 receiver by the end of this season--and next year, keep progressing.

 

But the Bills need help at the position, clearly, and now, whether it is from the current roster or practice squad or elsewhere.

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I can’t believe this is even a stat.

It definitely tells you something but in and of itself it does not predict actual production.

[ProcessTruster]

12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

The irony of the endless Keon Coleman debate is that aside from Shakir he's the Bills best wideout and deserving of more snaps and targets.

 

Put differently, the irony is that Coleman is not the problem... it's the other wide receivers aside from he and Shakir that are the problem.

 

But Coleman is the lightning rod because his draft selection made many unhappy.

 

by week 10 he'll be fine

[SoonerBillsFan]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Good on Coleman!  Now if the rest of the WR corp could do what the rookie does...

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Wonder how many catches Coleman, and the rest of the rookie WRs, have with little/no separation. He’s come down with a couple contested catches. 

[RyanC883]

13 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

The irony of the endless Keon Coleman debate is that aside from Shakir he's the Bills best wideout and deserving of more snaps and targets.

 

Put differently, the irony is that Coleman is not the problem... it's the other wide receivers aside from he and Shakir that are the problem.

 

But Coleman is the lightning rod because his draft selection made many unhappy.

 

 

to me Coleman is not the problem, the problem is not getting another WR who can separate like Polk or McCaffrey  

[GunnerBill]

Appreciate not "win rate" which is % of routes where the receiver is consider to have won the route... those data points are behind a paywall on data.fantasypoints.com but I did just check in NextGen's average separation stats and, halfway through the year, for rookie receivers (with minimum 25 targets) it looks as so:

 

1. Xavier Worthy - Chiefs (1st round pick) - 3.6 yards     (36% slot)     #7 in receiving yards

2. Rome Odunze - Bears (1st round pick) - 3 yards     (34% slot)     #6 in receiving yards

3. Brian Thomas - Jaguars (1st round pick) - 3 yards     (26% slot)     #1 in receiving yards

4. Xavier Legette - Panthers (1st round pick) - 2.9 yards     (33% slot)     #8 in receiving yards

5. Malik Nabers - Giants (1st round pick) - 2.8 yards     (26% slot)     #2 in receiving yards

6. Adonai Mitchell - Colts (2nd round pick) - 2.8 yards     (34% slot)     #9 in receiving yards

7. Ladd McConkey - Chargers (2nd round pick) - 2.7 yards     (68% slot)     #5 in receiving yards

8. Keon Coleman - Bills (2nd round pick) - 2.2 yards     (6% slot)     #4 in receiving yards

9. Marvin Harrison - Cardinals (1st round pick) - 1.8 yards     (26% slot)     #3 in receiving yards

10. Ja'Lynn Polk - Patriots (2nd round pick) - 1.7 yards     (15% slot)     #10 in receiving yards

 

 

Few things to note:

• I've included the % of snaps each guy has played in the slot because they lend themselves naturally to free releases and therefore higher average separation rates. It's particularly relevant to Coleman obviously because he has the lowest slot percentage which will to an extent be impacting his separation - although I remain of the view that vertical separation is never really going to be his game.  
• Coleman's slot usage was 0% through the first three games. It has ticked up since and has been just over 10% for the past three weeks. I have said elsewhere I think the Bills were guilty of trying to force him into a X receiver straightjacket early this season and I repeat, that is not his game. The acquisition of Cooper allows them to move Keon - they have used him as as some X, some Z and a bit of slot the last few weeks and the results speak for themselves.
• Equally I'd be slightly concerned that McConkey's separation rate isn't higher given his use primarily as a slot receiver. For comparison, our own Khalil Shakir is #2 among all receivers with 4.3 yards of average separation as a guys in the slot 73% of the time.
• It is encouraging if you are a Panthers or Colts fan because Legette and Mitchell's separation rates are solid. That supports the theory that their lower production rates are at least in some part due to the Quarterback play. They both rank in the top 15 of uncatchable targets for the season too.
• Whereas if you are a Cardinals fan I'd be worrying less about the supposed lack of "chemistry" between Murray and Harrison and more about whether Harrison is actually getting open enough to be thrown the ball more.
• Polk at 1.7 yards is the lowest qualifying receiver in separation per NextGen. He is second only to Coleman in terms of usage on the boundary, which has an impact and his ceiling is impacted by is QB play but he is another guy for whom separation was a genuine concern on tape IMO. 
• Troy Franklin (3.7) and Jaelen McMillan (3.1) both just missed out on enough targets to qualify but will be interesting to look at later in the year as two guys who went later in the draft. 

 

Some might say, what does separation rate matter only production matters. While ultimately that is true looking at bald production - especially over a relatively small sample size - can result in misleading conclusions. Looking at the underlying data gives you another layer of understanding as to what is going on. This was a talented receiver class and other than possibly Polk (who as recognised above is probably in the worst combined situation of usage and QB play) the rest of them have all demonstrated at least some exciting potential thus far.

[Billl]

This WR class has lived up to the hype so far.

[hondo in seattle]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:20 PM, Big Blitz said:

Data:

 

 

 

 

I love charts like this.  They're so informative and look so pretty and professional.

 

But I don't trust them because I don't trust the data behind them.  Who's determining win rate?  I can't imagine this is any more accurate than PFF grades.  Not entirely useless, maybe, but not something we should take too seriously.

 

Interesting though that Gabe Davis is below average both versus zone and man.   And Keon is better versus man coverage than either Diggs or Davis.

 

(It's one of those things...  I love the chart when it tells me something I like.  Hate it otherwise).