Investigating our 1st down passing v HOU

[BuffaloBillies]

Thanks. Love the use of "disaster" when appropriate...

 

Blocking - disaster
Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play

[ALLinALLEN]

I also went through the All22, and was thinking of doing a weekly thread for other "All22'ers" to discuss...if that would have any interest?

 

But on the film...what did you think about the (Q1 second drive) inside goal to go play calling? Same formation run to left 1st and 2nd, then slight variation run again on 3rd...?

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Why is it that the few times we run play action,  we perform the lamest fake hand-off ever.  You're not holding the LB's, they're just ignoring it. Josh stick the ball in his hip, not fake hand-off to air?

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Except for the playoffs, Josh has not been accurate deep. Generally speaking. Add in a below average WR group, and that margin of error only drops. Until we make teams pay for it, they will continue to blitz us, and flood the underneath Zones. I've always felt that Josh works best in spread formations, with 3-4 WR on the field, allowing him to see the pressure, and field better. Instead of investing more on WR, we've dumped all these resources in TE's. Knox is invisible, and Kincaid is not as good as we were hoping he would be. I just don't understand it. At this point, this regime has to know what works best with him, but they refuse to accept it, and force the issue with an ideology that does not fit him best.

These next 2 years I'm putting so much emphasis on wrs. Both draft and FA. I don't even care about 12 personnel anymore. Knox and Von will be released soon. Stop throwing away cap space on players that don't help Josh.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Why is it that the few times we run play action,  we perform the lamest fake hand-off ever.  You're not holding the LB's, they're just ignoring it. Josh stick the ball in his hip, not fake hand-off to air?

 

It is definitely something that I spotted. Particularly where I mention on that failed play action early. It doesn't freeze Hunter because it doesn't ever look like a handoff. I wonder if the left hand injury is playing a part in that? 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there. 

 

There's a whole thread about this play. I'm welcome to being wrong on this but this is what I saw:

 

Looks like a sluggo and Allen is reading the leverage of the safety to determine which shoulder the ball goes to. Safety bites inside so he throws outside shoulder. When Allen gears up to throw there is nothing about his mechanics that indicates the pass sailed on him or drifted to the right. He is clearly intentionally aiming the pass outside shoulder.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's a whole thread about this play. I'm welcome to being wrong on this but this is what I saw:

 

Looks like a sluggo and Allen is reading the leverage of the safety to determine which shoulder the ball goes to. Safety bites inside so he throws outside shoulder. When Allen gears up to throw there is nothing about his mechanics that indicates the pass sailed on him or drifted to the right. He is clearly intentionally aiming the pass outside shoulder.

 

Yea that is feasible. It isn't my reading of it. Looks like a slot post to me. I think the ball sails outside on him. The endzone view that is what it looks like too. Looks like it gets away. But you could be right. Regardless of whether it is a bit Josh and more Hollins or more Josh and a bit Hollins the play was there and they missed it. 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that is feasible. It isn't my reading of it. Looks like a slot post to me. I think the ball sails outside on him. The endzone view that is what it looks like too. Looks like it gets away. But you could be right. Regardless of whether it is a bit Josh and more Hollins or more Josh and a bit Hollins the play was there and they missed it. 

 

It should have been an easy walk in TD and at worst a 40 yard gain after catching and going to the ground which would have happened if Mack doesn't let it go through his hands.

[thewookie1]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there. 

 

I guess the best way to describe it would be, the throw prevented a touchdown, Hollins made the play entirely worthless. 

 

Essentially even with a bad placement he still had ample opportunity to at very least catch the ball 

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

 

I guess the best way to describe it would be, the throw prevented a touchdown, Hollins made the play entirely worthless. 

 

Essentially even with a bad placement he still had ample opportunity to at very least catch the ball 

 

Yea that is fair.

[HappyDays]

It is alarming that we are running so often on 1st down but still not finding good success when we occasionally pass it. Defenses should be keying in on the run giving us easier opportunities to pass it based on these splits.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It is alarming that we are running so often on 1st down but still not finding good success when we occasionally pass it. Defenses should be keying in on the run giving us easier opportunities to pass it based on these splits.

 

Completely. That was what triggered this thread. It should be easier to pass on 1st down. It should especially be that way when you are primarily a run on first down team. And yet through the last two games the Bills are (cumulative) on 1st down passes 6-18 for 15 yards. That is unspeakably bad. 

[Alphadawg7]

23 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there. 

First of all, great write up for your thread here and thank you.  
 

Pertaining to this play, I am surprised it took other angles to see this because this was clear as day live in the game to me and on the replays, it was a terrible throw from the get go.  

Sure, Hollins technically could have adjusted better, but that adjustment is way harder than people think and there was never any reason to make that throw so hard in the first place,  he was wide open.  
 

And not only did he throw it to his outside shoulder he also threw it about as far as he could with it still having a possibility to be caught and with way too much air on the ball creating a steeper angle for the ball to come down.

 

Mack is Mack, he isn’t going to confuse anyone for Justin Jefferson by any means…but on this one play, this catch is substantially more difficult than people have been saying.  I don’t know how many people have played WR, but I can assure everyone that the higher the arc on an over the shoulder catch, the harder the ball is to track and catch. And it gets even harder when it’s over the wrong outside shoulder, especially having to change your route.  People don’t realize just how much further you have to turn your head back and up, not to mention hold it longer to track.  And then to have to change your route on the bad pass and instead do that on your outside shoulder and it’s going to slow down most, if not all, WRs trying to track the ball as you are contorting your body so much.  
 

All anyone has to do is go outside and run looking over their left shoulder like a normal post pass is coming.  Now do the same and look way back in the sky and higher to track a ball and adjust your route to the outside shoulder.  Guarantee it impacts your running as you try and adjust. And that’s without wearing pads and a helmet.
 

Everyone says any other WR makes this catch, but that’s just not true.  Allen made this as difficult of a catch as he could by putting it in a place that was going to be an outstretched catch on the wrong outside shoulder of a player originally running a post.  
 

This is NOT a defense of Mack as a receiver, this is just the facts of this single play.  Yes, there are WRs who can make that play, but most don’t and it’s a low percentage catch and inexcusable considering how wide open Mack was.  I mean Allen threw a bullet earlier to Kincaid down the sideline that had no air that made the ball uncatchable but had he put some loft it’s catchable.  This play he floats a pass too far and to the wrong spot where a simple throw and catch was all he had to do.  There was zero reason for that much air let alone going to the wrong spot.

 

IMHO the failure of this play is 85% on Allen if not more.  He also had Mack wide open on another post for a possible TD later in this drive and totally didn’t see him and locked on to Coleman and the ball out of end zone.  
 

Allen had two TDs on that drive he blew in what was the worst half I’ve ever seen from him. 
 

Disclaimer:  None of this means Mack is a good downfield WR or a defense of his abilities as a WR.  It’s just about what happened on this specific play and the reality of really how hard that throw is to track, adjust, and catch. 

[Big Turk]

It seemed Houston was clogging up the middle preventing the easier throws and trying to force the Bills to beat them outside with their WRs. 

 

However, there were some plays where it appeared checkdowns to the RB were available and weren't taken that could have helped them with down and distance.

 

IMO, it seemed Allen was trying to press too hard on a lot of plays and instead of taking what was available on plays, trying to gain chunks that were much more difficult plays.  

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

It seemed Houston was clogging up the middle preventing the easier throws and trying to force the Bills to beat them outside with their WRs. 

 

However, there were some plays where it appeared checkdowns to the RB were available and weren't taken that could have helped them with down and distance.

 

IMO, it seemed Allen was trying to press too hard on a lot of plays and instead of taking what was available on plays, trying to gain chunks that were much more difficult plays.  

 

They were. Baltimore did too. The book is out now. The Bills have to prove they can beat you there or else teams will keep doing it. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They were. Baltimore did too. The book is out now. The Bills have to prove they can beat you there or else teams will keep doing it. 

 

The issue seems to be that scheme can only help so much...at some point the players have to actually win one on one and they aren't doing it enough.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

It is alarming that we are running so often on 1st down but still not finding good success when we occasionally pass it. Defenses should be keying in on the run giving us easier opportunities to pass it based on these splits.

Maybe teams are keying on the pass because they don't care about the Bills succeeding on first down runs due to the fact that matriculating the ball down the field in a 12 play drive is a rare outcome given the high potential that some drive-killing mistake will happen? If I'm a DC, I'm thinking, I'm gonna stop Josh Allen's arm first and foremost on 1st down and let James Cook get that occasional 7-8 yard pickup.

Edited October 9 by dave mcbride