Investigating our 1st down passing v HOU

[GunnerBill]

Morning all. I said yesterday in one of the threads I was going to dig into yesterday's first down passing struggles when the all22 was out. So here we go. I think I wrongly said yesterday we were 1-7 for -7 yards on first down passes yesterday. We were actually 2-7 for -8. Our only two completions both lost yardage. That is not acceptable given 1st down is the most advantageous passing down in the NFL AND we have put on tape that we are a run first team on 1st down this season which should give us better looks when we do pass. It was a catalogue of failures on Sunday and we have gotta get it fixed. Here is my breakdown:

 

11:30 (1st) - 1st and 20 - Shotgun, empty. 11 personnel with a back (Davis) split wide. It is the Hollins deep shot. Ball not quite as well thrown as on first look. Hollins is clearly running a post. Allen has to leave that ball inside.
Play design - good
Blocking - excellent
Receiver - okay, could still have tracked it better
Quarterback - poor, needs to leave the ball inside

2:55 (1st) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - under center, offset I formation. 22 personnel with Gilliam in the backfield. Designed play action boot to the right with Knox, Kincaid and Hollins in the pattern. Texans defensive end (Hunter) never bites on the play action and Allen is forced to throw away. Don't love the call, Josh's attempt to sell the play action is perfunctary.
Play design - poor
Blocking - fine (they are blocking down, Hunter being free is by design they want him to bite on the PA)
Receivers - fine, Knox and Kincaid both get some separation.
Quarterback - okay, would like him to sell the PA better but likely makes no difference to the play.

7.55 (2nd) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - Shotgun, Pro Set, 11 personnel with Samuel and Cook flanking Allen. Samuel in motion, RPO, Allen fakes the hand off to Cook and throws to Samuel in flat. Linebackers sees it all the way. Loss of a yard.
Play design - poor, felt forced to manufacture touch for Samuel andTexans read it all the way.
Blocking - fine
Receiver - poor, showed zero burst or wiggle
Quarterback - fine

4:13 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback, 12 personnel with Anderson in as extra lineman. Designed PA screen to Cook slipping out the left. Brilliantly designed all three interior OL are out there with one man to block to get Cook an easy 5 yards and if they block the DB who starts to rally to the ball too it could be a touchdown play. They fail to execute the first of those blocks, Cook blown up in the backfield for a loss of 7.
Play design - excellent
Blocking - disaster
Receiver - fine, nothing Cook could do
Quarterback - good, Allen actually sells this one pretty well.

1:02 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Shotgun, singleback (Davis) and 11 personnel. Allen throws the out to Kincaid who can't bring it in. Probably should catch but the timing was off from Josh he throws it too early when falling back (not sure he needed to be the pocket was holding better than he imagined). Do I want Kincaid to make that catch? 100%. But Josh has to do better than that too.
Play design - good
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, should catch.
Quarterback - poor, timing off and doesn't need to be backpedalling.

9:34 (3rd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback and 12 personnel with Anderson as additional lineman. Josh designed one step drop and quick hitter on the slant. Coleman doesn't seem to know the play (wasn't an audible or an RPO) head isn't round ball hits side of helmet incomplete. He had inside leverage on the corner if he catches it he just has the safety to beat and it could be a touchdown.
Play design - good
Blocking - N/A (quick hitter no chance of pressure)
Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play
Quarterback - good

0:32 (4th) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Singleback, 11 personnel but Kincaid in the slot. In his own endzone Allen tries back shoulder throw to Coleman. Pocket holds up pretty well and he has Shavers on an inbreaking route to the right which probably picks up 4 or 5 yards against zone coverage but he doesn't trust his eyes, comes off that and tries to force it to Coleman 1 on 1 who has zero separation against Lassiter in press man.
Play design - okay, don't mind the design (leave aside for a secons should we run) but maybe someone Josh trusts more than the guy you just called off the practice squad getting the free release in the slot would have been an idea?
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, Coleman loses the rep from the off
Quarterback - poor, understand he is thinking gotta get it out of my hands and he doesn't entirely trust Shavers inside but I think he takes the wrong throw.

 

Summary: It was a myriad of issues affecting us in our first down passing. One of the reassuring things was there isn't a really predictable tell to Brady's play calling. He uses some 1st down passes to start drives, some of it is heavy personnel, some of it is 4 or 5 wides, there is a nice mix of playaction, quick game and pure shotgun dropback. There were a couple of calls I didn't like and I do question having Shavers on the field in a big spot on that final possession (presume they were hoping he was a decoy to get Hollins free outside but didn't work) but this was not primarily a play design / play calling failure. Three of those plays - the deep ball to Hollins, the play action screen to Cook and the quick slant to Coleman had the potential to be really explosive plays for the offense and on each of them execution (firstly Allen and Hollins, then the interior offensive line and then Coleman) failed us. But the most common theme among the seven plays is receiver failure... only on the blown up play action boot and Cook when blown up on the play action screen do I thinm the receiver(s) on the play did a good enough job. And that is a worry. Josh Allen, especially first half, played poorly. That is disappointing but not a long term worry. The receivers have to be better though and unlike Josh they don't have 5 or 6 years of tape proving they can be better to fall back on. I agree with @Bocephuz having watched that game back. The poor blocking on the screen mentioned above apart the oline played better than it appeared on tv. 

Edited October 8 by GunnerBill

[balln]

Thanks. Excellent 

[mannc]

Great write up, but I take issue with your statement that Brady was not predictable, which I think you meant in terms of personnel and formation, when he chose to pass.  But the Bills threw on only 7 of 25 first downs during the game, which I believe is an unacceptable ratio, especially in a game like this.  As you say, it’s the best down on which to throw, and the line was not holding up well on the more obvious passing downs.

Edited October 8 by mannc

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Thanks for the effort here. Any idea how many 1st down runs we had? 
 

One step I think Brady and company could make to find some consistency is to identify and personnel grouping that is their most talented and stick with it. They’re trying all sort of different personnel’s and formations and frankly it looks like they’re throwing darts. 
 

Figure out one thing you can do well before you adding wrinkles in. I get this is not the modern NFL but IMO it’s an easy step towards simplifying things for JA and the youngsters/new guys. 

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, mannc said:

Great write up, but I take issue with your statement that Brady was not predictable, which I think you meant in terms of personnel and formation, when he chose to pass.  But the Bills threw on only 7 of 25 first downs during the game, which I believe is an unacceptable ratio, especially in a game like this.  As you say, it’s the best down on which to throw, and the line was not holding up well on the more obvious passing downs.

 

Yea I was not really here getting into "are we passing enough on first down." I agree that 7/25 still feels too light for me. I was focussing on our lack of success doing it (the Ravens games wasn't much better... 4 from 11 for 20 something yards I think). When you put a tendency on tape that you are run on first down team and then you choose to throw and you STILL can't move the ball on first down it's a problem. And to round back to where you started if we can't move the ball with any regularity on first down through the air it will make them less inclined to do it, so one problem exacerbates another. 

7 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Thanks for the effort here. Any idea how many 1st down runs we had? 
 

One step I think Brady and company could make to find some consistency is to identify and personnel grouping that is their most talented and stick with it. They’re trying all sort of different personnel’s and formations and frankly it looks like they’re throwing darts. 
 

Figure out one thing you can do well before you adding wrinkles in. I get this is not the modern NFL but IMO it’s an easy step towards simplifying things for JA and the youngsters/new guys. 

 

I didn't count them up but based on @mannc numbers above I make it 18 - one of which was a designed Allen naked boot in the 3rd quarter. So 17 running back runs, 7 passes, 1 designed QB run. 

 

I sort of see the wider point you make, but I'm not sure what this offense does best at the moment. Working out what we do well would help but I have no idea what it is. 

[london_bills]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning all. I said yesterday in one of the threads I was going to dig into yesterday's first down passing struggles when the all22 was out. So here we go. I think I wrongly said yesterday we were 1-7 for -7 yards on first down passes yesterday. We were actually 2-7 for -8. Our only two completions both lost yardage. That is not acceptable given 1st down is the most advantageous passing down in the NFL AND we have put on tape that we are a run first team on 1st down this season which should give us better looks when we do pass. It was a catalogue of failures on Sunday and we have gotta get it fixed. Here is my breakdown:

 

11:30 (1st) - 1st and 20 - Shotgun, empty. 11 personnel with a back (Davis) split wide. It is the Hollins deep shot. Ball not quite as well thrown as on first look. Hollins is clearly running a post. Allen has to leave that ball inside.
Play design - good
Blocking - excellent
Receiver - okay, could still have tracked it better
Quarterback - poor, needs to leave the ball inside

2:55 (1st) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - under center, offset I formation. 22 personnel with Gilliam in the backfield. Designed play action boot to the right with Knox, Kincaid and Hollins in the pattern. Texans defensive end (Hunter) never bites on the play action and Allen is forced to throw away. Don't love the call, Josh's attempt to sell the play action is perfunctary.
Play design - poor
Blocking - fine (they are blocking down, Hunter being free is by design they want him to bite on the PA)
Receivers - fine, Knox and Kincaid both get some separation.
Quarterback - okay, would like him to sell the PA better but likely makes no difference to the play.

7.55 (2nd) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - Shotgun, Pro Set, 11 personnel with Samuel and Cook flanking Allen. Samuel in motion, RPO, Allen fakes the hand off to Cook and throws to Samuel in flat. Linebackers sees it all the way. Loss of a yard.
Play design - poor, felt forced to manufacture touch for Samuel andTexans read it all the way.
Blocking - fine
Receiver - poor, showed zero burst or wiggle
Quarterback - fine

4:13 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback, 12 personnel with Anderson in as extra lineman. Designed PA screen to Cook slipping out the left. Brilliantly designed all three interior OL are out there with one man to block to get Cook an easy 5 yards and if they block the DB who starts to rally to the ball too it could be a touchdown play. They fail to execute the first of those blocks, Cook blown up in the backfield for a loss of 7.
Play design - excellent
Blocking - disaster
Receiver - fine, nothing Cook could do
Quarterback - good, Allen actually sells this one pretty well.

1:02 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Shotgun, singleback (Davis) and 11 personnel. Allen throws the out to Kincaid who can't bring it in. Probably should catch but the timing was off from Josh he throws it too early when falling back (not sure he needed to be the pocket was holding better than he imagined). Do I want Kincaid to make that catch? 100%. But Josh has to do better than that too.
Play design - good
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, should catch.
Quarterback - poor, timing off and doesn't need to be backpedalling.

9:34 (3rd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback and 12 personnel with Anderson as additional lineman. Josh designed one step drop and quick hitter on the slant. Coleman doesn't seem to know the play (wasn't an audible or an RPO) head isn't round ball hits side of helmet incomplete. He had inside leverage on the corner if he catches it he just has the safety to beat and it could be a touchdown.
Play design - good
Blocking - N/A (quick hitter no chance of pressure)
Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play
Quarterback - good

0:32 (4th) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Singleback, 11 personnel but Kincaid in the slot. In his own endzone Allen tries back shoulder throw to Coleman. Pocket holds up pretty well and he has Shavers on an inbreaking route to the right which probably picks up 4 or 5 yards against zone coverage but he doesn't trust his eyes, comes off that and tries to force it to Coleman 1 on 1 who has zero separation against Lassiter in press man.
Play design - okay, don't mind the design (leave aside for a secons should we run) but maybe someone Josh trusts more than the guy you just called off the practice squad getting the free release in the slot would have been an idea?
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, Coleman loses the rep from the off
Quarterback - poor, understand he is thinking gotta get it out of my hands and he doesn't entirely trust Shavers inside but I think he takes the wrong throw.

 

Summary: It was a myriad of issues affecting us in our first down passing. One of the reassuring things was there isn't a really predictable tell to Brady's play calling. He uses some 1st down passes to start drives, some of it is heavy personnel, some of it is 4 or 5 wides, there is a nice mix of playaction, quick game and pure shotgun dropback. There were a couple of calls I didn't like and I do question having Shavers on the field in a big spot on that final possession (presume they were hoping he was a decoy to get Hollins free outside but didn't work) but this was not primarily a play design / play calling failure. Three of those plays - the deep ball to Hollins, the play action screen to Cook and the quick slant to Coleman had the potential to be really explosive plays for the offense and on each of them execution (firstly Allen and Hollins, then the interior offensive line and then Coleman) failed us. But the most common theme among the seven plays is receiver failure... only on the blown up play action boot and Cook when blown up on the play action screen do I thinm the receiver(s) on the play did a good enough job. And that is a worry. Josh Allen, especially first half, played poorly. That is disappointing but not a long term worry. The receivers have to be better though and unlike Josh they don't have 5 or 6 years of tape proving they can be better to fall back on. I agree with @Bocephuz having watched that game back. The poor blocking on the screen mentioned above apart the oline played better than it appeared on tv. 

Really interesting breakdown thanks. I'm not the most knowledgeable fan but looking at the some of the game on replay and particularly the last series- is everything not bound to be better if Josh just takes the 5 or so yards available sometimes (particularly on 2nd down on the last series)! My point is- shouldn't we be able to rely on him situationally if the play calls first reads were all 'low percentage plays', that's what concerns me as well as the other stuff 

Edited October 8 by london_bills

[JerseyBills]

Every 1st down - #70 is elgible as a WR, felt like literally every one! They did run effective on first but you have to have balance and the passing was horrendous

[BillsFan130]

Great write up- the only thing i respectfully disagree with as mentioned above is the predictability- I literally guessed the bills play calls correctly like 9 plays in a row at one point.

Great stuff though, appreciate the insights 

[Buffalo4Life01]

2 minutes ago, london_bills said:

Really interesting breakdown thanks. I'm not the most knowledgeable fan but looking at the some of the game on replay and particularly the last series- is everything not bound to be better if Josh just takes the 5 or so yards available sometimes (particularly on 2nd down on the last series)! My point is- shouldn't we be able to rely on him situationally if the play calls first reads were all 'low percentage plays', that's what concerns me as well as the other stuff 

it depends on if Josh is really as stupid as some posters say he is.  If he can't learn to read defenses pre snap and put more air under his long balls, he will go down as one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL!  

[Freddie's Dead]

We passed on first down?

[strive_for_five_guy]

Sounds like my golf game.  If one part of my game is doing well, some other area is falling apart.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Great write up- the only thing i respectfully disagree with as mentioned above is the predictability- I literally guessed the bills play calls correctly like 9 plays in a row at one point.

Great stuff though, appreciate the insights 

 

What I meant there is there is no "tell" about what play is coming based on formation, personnel grouping, shotgun vs under center. You might pick up on some gameflow stuff, sure. But he isn't showing you when they come to line "okay this is a passing first down" vs a rushing first down. 

[Lost]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What I meant there is there is no "tell" about what play is coming based on formation, personnel grouping, shotgun vs under center. You might pick up on some gameflow stuff, sure. But he isn't showing you when they come to line "okay this is a passing first down" vs a rushing first down. 

 

Alec Anderson reporting as eligible every other play kinda feels like a tell.

[Negan]

Did you know every time Allen checks at the line a scrimmage it's a running play he checks into.  It's 💯 % everytime.  I'm sure the defense is aware of this.  Quite mind boggling that they telegraph it every time.  

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Alec Anderson reporting as eligible every other play kinda feels like a tell.

 

How does it? They pass with him on the field, they run with him on the field. It isn't even the case that every pass when he is out there is off play action. 

[Allen2Moulds]

Except for the playoffs, Josh has not been accurate deep. Generally speaking. Add in a below average WR group, and that margin of error only drops. Until we make teams pay for it, they will continue to blitz us, and flood the underneath Zones. I've always felt that Josh works best in spread formations, with 3-4 WR on the field, allowing him to see the pressure, and field better. Instead of investing more on WR, we've dumped all these resources in TE's. Knox is invisible, and Kincaid is not as good as we were hoping he would be. I just don't understand it. At this point, this regime has to know what works best with him, but they refuse to accept it, and force the issue with an ideology that does not fit him best.

Edited October 8 by Allen2Moulds

[BillsFan130]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What I meant there is there is no "tell" about what play is coming based on formation, personnel grouping, shotgun vs under center. You might pick up on some gameflow stuff, sure. But he isn't showing you when they come to line "okay this is a passing first down" vs a rushing first down. 

Ahh ok fair enough , I got you

[thewookie1]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning all. I said yesterday in one of the threads I was going to dig into yesterday's first down passing struggles when the all22 was out. So here we go. I think I wrongly said yesterday we were 1-7 for -7 yards on first down passes yesterday. We were actually 2-7 for -8. Our only two completions both lost yardage. That is not acceptable given 1st down is the most advantageous passing down in the NFL AND we have put on tape that we are a run first team on 1st down this season which should give us better looks when we do pass. It was a catalogue of failures on Sunday and we have gotta get it fixed. Here is my breakdown:

 

11:30 (1st) - 1st and 20 - Shotgun, empty. 11 personnel with a back (Davis) split wide. It is the Hollins deep shot. Ball not quite as well thrown as on first look. Hollins is clearly running a post. Allen has to leave that ball inside.
Play design - good
Blocking - excellent
Receiver - okay, could still have tracked it better
Quarterback - poor, needs to leave the ball inside

2:55 (1st) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - under center, offset I formation. 22 personnel with Gilliam in the backfield. Designed play action boot to the right with Knox, Kincaid and Hollins in the pattern. Texans defensive end (Hunter) never bites on the play action and Allen is forced to throw away. Don't love the call, Josh's attempt to sell the play action is perfunctary.
Play design - poor
Blocking - fine (they are blocking down, Hunter being free is by design they want him to bite on the PA)
Receivers - fine, Knox and Kincaid both get some separation.
Quarterback - okay, would like him to sell the PA better but likely makes no difference to the play.

7.55 (2nd) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - Shotgun, Pro Set, 11 personnel with Samuel and Cook flanking Allen. Samuel in motion, RPO, Allen fakes the hand off to Cook and throws to Samuel in flat. Linebackers sees it all the way. Loss of a yard.
Play design - poor, felt forced to manufacture touch for Samuel andTexans read it all the way.
Blocking - fine
Receiver - poor, showed zero burst or wiggle
Quarterback - fine

4:13 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback, 12 personnel with Anderson in as extra lineman. Designed PA screen to Cook slipping out the left. Brilliantly designed all three interior OL are out there with one man to block to get Cook an easy 5 yards and if they block the DB who starts to rally to the ball too it could be a touchdown play. They fail to execute the first of those blocks, Cook blown up in the backfield for a loss of 7.
Play design - excellent
Blocking - disaster
Receiver - fine, nothing Cook could do
Quarterback - good, Allen actually sells this one pretty well.

1:02 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Shotgun, singleback (Davis) and 11 personnel. Allen throws the out to Kincaid who can't bring it in. Probably should catch but the timing was off from Josh he throws it too early when falling back (not sure he needed to be the pocket was holding better than he imagined). Do I want Kincaid to make that catch? 100%. But Josh has to do better than that too.
Play design - good
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, should catch.
Quarterback - poor, timing off and doesn't need to be backpedalling.

9:34 (3rd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback and 12 personnel with Anderson as additional lineman. Josh designed one step drop and quick hitter on the slant. Coleman doesn't seem to know the play (wasn't an audible or an RPO) head isn't round ball hits side of helmet incomplete. He had inside leverage on the corner if he catches it he just has the safety to beat and it could be a touchdown.
Play design - good
Blocking - N/A (quick hitter no chance of pressure)
Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play
Quarterback - good

0:32 (4th) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Singleback, 11 personnel but Kincaid in the slot. In his own endzone Allen tries back shoulder throw to Coleman. Pocket holds up pretty well and he has Shavers on an inbreaking route to the right which probably picks up 4 or 5 yards against zone coverage but he doesn't trust his eyes, comes off that and tries to force it to Coleman 1 on 1 who has zero separation against Lassiter in press man.
Play design - okay, don't mind the design (leave aside for a secons should we run) but maybe someone Josh trusts more than the guy you just called off the practice squad getting the free release in the slot would have been an idea?
Blocking - good
Receiver - poor, Coleman loses the rep from the off
Quarterback - poor, understand he is thinking gotta get it out of my hands and he doesn't entirely trust Shavers inside but I think he takes the wrong throw.

 

Summary: It was a myriad of issues affecting us in our first down passing. One of the reassuring things was there isn't a really predictable tell to Brady's play calling. He uses some 1st down passes to start drives, some of it is heavy personnel, some of it is 4 or 5 wides, there is a nice mix of playaction, quick game and pure shotgun dropback. There were a couple of calls I didn't like and I do question having Shavers on the field in a big spot on that final possession (presume they were hoping he was a decoy to get Hollins free outside but didn't work) but this was not primarily a play design / play calling failure. Three of those plays - the deep ball to Hollins, the play action screen to Cook and the quick slant to Coleman had the potential to be really explosive plays for the offense and on each of them execution (firstly Allen and Hollins, then the interior offensive line and then Coleman) failed us. But the most common theme among the seven plays is receiver failure... only on the blown up play action boot and Cook when blown up on the play action screen do I thinm the receiver(s) on the play did a good enough job. And that is a worry. Josh Allen, especially first half, played poorly. That is disappointing but not a long term worry. The receivers have to be better though and unlike Josh they don't have 5 or 6 years of tape proving they can be better to fall back on. I agree with @Bocephuz having watched that game back. The poor blocking on the screen mentioned above apart the oline played better than it appeared on tv. 

 

I'd still put more blame on Hollins on the long pass than you are but besides that you are spot on. with the play breakdowns. Could Allen's throw been a bit better, sure, but as an NFL receiver you need to be able to adjust and track the ball better. The fact he got his hands on it tells me the ball wasn't exactly badly overthrown. Overthrown, yes, but not by any large degree. Plus we have all seen when Allen overshoots a guy and this ball had plenty of air to make a slight adjustment and make an easy catch. 

[colin]

if the d is daring you to pass deep, playing closed 1 safety deep stuff, and expect a pass on first down then it means they are not about to get ripped on screens and slower stuff.  quick slants, pa stuff, etc is more likely to succeed, along with using the space the d gives you.

 

it seems to me the screens and stuff we ran don't take advantage of this.  like, we don't set up easy plays, and when we "break tendency" we do so in a way that doesn't really give us the best chance.

 

the execution is so awful tho.  like, the one screen where 3 blockers let one D guy get too cook, how does that happen?  that literally never happens to us, every time we stop a screen someone is making a hero read and just bombing in.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

 

I'd still put more blame on Hollins on the long pass than you are but besides that you are spot on. with the play breakdowns. Could Allen's throw been a bit better, sure, but as an NFL receiver you need to be able to adjust and track the ball better. The fact he got his hands on it tells me the ball wasn't exactly badly overthrown. Overthrown, yes, but not by any large degree. Plus we have all seen when Allen overshoots a guy and this ball had plenty of air to make a slight adjustment and make an easy catch. 

 

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there.