13-15 vs 25-2

[boyst]

In the last 4 years the Buffalo Bills are: 

13-15 in 1 score games

25-2 in all other games

[Success]

We have a close game problem. 

 

It really does seem to be a "tightness" thing at times.  The coaching just botched that last series yesterday. It felt like panic.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The story of McDermott is an easy one to tell. He crushes bad QBs and against even average QBs he's middling at best. 

Just not good enough with a HOF QB. 

[Returntoglory]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

We have a close game problem. 

 

It really does seem to be a "tightness" thing at times.  The coaching just botched that last series yesterday. It felt like panic.

 

We have a "Game Management Problem"!

[Mikie2times]

Good thing it's usually blow outs in the playoffs

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, Success said:

We have a close game problem. 

 

It really does seem to be a "tightness" thing at times.  The coaching just botched that last series yesterday. It felt like panic.

 

 

Typically what we have is an Allen leading us to a late score to take the lead and the D/ST giving it up problem. That's at least 5 of those games.

[Logic]

The "Bills can't win close games" things has been talked about ad nauseum. 

What you basically showed with your side-by-side statistics is that the Bills usually win games by comfortable margins, but when they lose, it's usually "just barely". They very rarely get blown out (the Ravens game was the first time since 2021, for instance).

That's really all I take from that statistic.

[TheFunPolice]

39 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The story of McDermott is an easy one to tell. He crushes bad QBs and against even average QBs he's middling at best. 

Just not good enough with a HOF QB. 

 

This. 

 

Having a defensive minded HC is fine. The problem is McDermott's defenses feast on the mediocre to bad QBs (of which there are many in this league) but get eaten alive by the good QBs. 

 

Thus, in close games (which are typically close because we're playing a good team) coaching becomes key. It's good enough to win a lot of games but not good enough to beat the best. 

 

McDermott is a good, but not great, HC in my opinion. Saying "you could do a lot worse" means nothing. 

 

You could do a lot worse than Doug Marrone, obviously. 

You could do a lot worse than Dick Jauron (he was coach of the year once in Chicago and went 13-3 in the greatest turnaround in team history) 

You could do a lot worse than Chan Gailey, whose teams were fun here and there and even beat the Brady version of NE once or twice 

 

That argument means nothing, really. Also, how different from McDermott would the above coaches' W/L record be with Josh Allen? 

 

Put another way: if McDermott got fired and some other team (likely without a top QB) hired him, how do you think he would do?

 

All of this is a moot point, because ownership loves him, so we're going to have to overcome coaching to win a Super Bowl. 

Edited October 7 by TheFunPolice

[KOKBILLS]

50 minutes ago, boyst said:

In the last 4 years the Buffalo Bills are: 

13-15 in 1 score games

25-2 in all other games

 

Yep...

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, TheFunPolice said:

All of this is a moot point, because ownership loves him, so we're going to have to overcome coaching to win a Super Bowl. 

 

This is correct.  If you've ever worked in a high performing organization, leadership are committed to continual improvement.  Entire books have been written about it!  When you work in organizations that are happy to get a gentleman's C, that's what you get.  Steady as she goes, don't rock the boat because i still want to be able to sit in the suite at Madison Square Gardens and host customers, I really don't care what the share price is! Besides, constant improvement is hard and a lot of people don't like it. The Bills strike me as the latter type of organization.  Anything can happen, a few lucky bounces and the Bills already would have made it to at least 1 superbowl so let's be very careful not to make any big changes.

[Mark Vader]

23 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Good thing it's usually blow outs in the playoffs

What are you saying?

[DapperCam]

Kind of curious what other team’s records are in 1-score games. I think the Chiefs would be ridiculously good, and everybody else would be around where we are (.500).

[boyst]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

The "Bills can't win close games" things has been talked about ad nauseum. 

What you basically showed with your side-by-side statistics is that the Bills usually win games by comfortable margins, but when they lose, it's usually "just barely". They very rarely get blown out (the Ravens game was the first time since 2021, for instance).

That's really all I take from that statistic.

i just take away we won 38 games in 4 years 😎

 

the McD loyalists: we are 38-17 with McDermott

the McD haters: we are 13-15 in close games

the McD Combo #1: Big Mac, fries, and drink

 

it's open for interpretation. 

[ren1701]

Here's the only state that matters: 

5-6 playoffs

0-0 in the Superbowl 

 

[corta765]

46 minutes ago, Logic said:

The "Bills can't win close games" things has been talked about ad nauseum. 

What you basically showed with your side-by-side statistics is that the Bills usually win games by comfortable margins, but when they lose, it's usually "just barely". They very rarely get blown out (the Ravens game was the first time since 2021, for instance).

That's really all I take from that statistic.

Exactly. They just ended an NFL run of not being blown out when they lost to the Ravens. It actually is a credit to the consistency of the team and how good they are that this stat exists.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

In the last 4 years the Buffalo Bills are: 

13-15 in 1 score games

25-2 in all other games

We brought in a guy this year to help with booth reviews and that seems to have worked out well. I just don't know; do we have a guy to help with in-game management? If we do, it seems like we need a different guy.

[corta765]

28 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Kind of curious what other team’s records are in 1-score games. I think the Chiefs would be ridiculously good, and everybody else would be around where we are (.500).

 

Last year Chiefs four losses, three were one score games and 1 was a double digit loss to DEN (weird).

2022 for KC: all three losses were one score

2021 for KC: three losses one score, two blow out losses Bills & Titans....? (WTF). After the Titans loss they were actually 3-4 which is wild as that was the last time they were under .500 that far into the season.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

In the last 4 years the Buffalo Bills are: 

13-15 in 1 score games

25-2 in all other games

So, it's basically a coin flip in one score games (28) and we win 93% of non one score games (27).  I can't tell if this is a McDermott endorsement for being awesome half the time or an indictment for being average half the time.

[DapperCam]

5 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Last year Chiefs four losses, three were one score games and 1 was a double digit loss to DEN (weird).

2022 for KC: all three losses were one score

2021 for KC: three losses one score, two blow out losses Bills & Titans....? (WTF). After the Titans loss they were actually 3-4 which is wild as that was the last time they were under .500 that far into the season.

I’m counting 9-5 in one score games for KC last year including the playoffs.

 

10-3 in 2022

6-4 in 2021

 

Pretty ridiculous success considering most teams are a coin flip in 1 score games.

[zow2]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

In the last 4 years the Buffalo Bills are: 

13-15 in 1 score games

25-2 in all other games

 

Yeah McDermott is so puckered up and his personality matches that.  Nice guys, just not a clutch coach.