Off Line Pass Pro / QB Unforced Error All 22 Review - week 5 10/6/24 - Texans

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

17 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Bottom line Josh has never been the same since that hit in Baltimore.  I hope the NFL finds out WTH Allen was allowed to go back in and not go to the tent. his ass was out cold at least for a few seconds.

Idk Allen’s entire career has a couple of games like this per year when teams can bring heat and he gets uncomfortable and presses and starts missing throws…sometimes the defense is stout enough where we have a shot late and we win it anyway (this game was pretty close to that) so they don’t stand out as much.  Sometimes it’s an all around stinker that everyone remembers.  
 

he may have been injured against Baltimore but idk that it led to unexpected bad play the next week 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

Q2 - UE 4 - Allen has easy button throw to open Samuel on shallow crosser but ignores that and throws deep to Kincaid who catches but is OOB

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure how this play would be an error by the QB? He makes a great throw on 3nd and 13 and Kincaid dropped it (or maybe he caught it and McD messed up by not challenging it).

 

Unless you're talking about a different play

[Bocephuz]

1 hour ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Thanks for the intelligent reply..as I stated in the original post, have not had the benefit of seeing the whole field on the live  broadcast presentation. I'm not sure what the NFL uses as its criterion for a pressure..i.e. if the qb bails early and "induces" pressure does it still count AS a pressure.

To be honest.. I'm not sure what the NFL criteria for "pressure" is. I doubt they are that nuanced.. i would guess if the qb has a rusher in his face then that is what they count. 

 

57 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Idk Allen’s entire career has a couple of games like this per year when teams can bring heat and he gets uncomfortable and presses and starts missing throws…sometimes the defense is stout enough where we have a shot late and we win it anyway (this game was pretty close to that) so they don’t stand out as much.  Sometimes it’s an all around stinker that everyone remembers.  
 

he may have been injured against Baltimore but idk that it led to unexpected bad play the next week 

josh usually has a few games like this every year. in the past he usually comes back more focused the next week. lets hope he can do that again

46 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I'm not sure how this play would be an error by the QB? He makes a great throw on 3nd and 13 and Kincaid dropped it (or maybe he caught it and McD messed up by not challenging it).

 

Unless you're talking about a different play

 

the error is he had an easy completion to try and move the chains 

but he instead chose to go for the play with greater degree of difficulty.. and I don't believe Kincaid dropped it. He was just out of bounds.  Also in my opinion that challenge would have gone against the Bills. To me he did not have control when he went out of bounds. 

Edited October 7 by Bocephuz

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

18 minutes ago, Bocephuz said:

To be honest.. I'm not sure what the NFL criteria for "pressure" is. I doubt they are that nuanced.. i would guess if the qb has a rusher in his face then that is what they count. 

 

josh usually has a few games like this every year. in the past he usually comes back more focused the next week. lets hope he can do that again

 

the error is he had an easy completion to try and move the chains 

but he instead chose to go for the play with greater degree of difficulty.. and I don't believe Kincaid dropped it. He was just out of bounds.  Also in my opinion that challenge would have gone against the Bills. To me he did not have control when he went out of bounds. 

 

I have to strongly disagree on that play. There's almost no chance a pass to Samuel would have moved the chains on 3rd and 13. #23 on the Texans was close enough to make a tackle for a ~5 yard gain. MAYBE a perfectly placed ball AND Samuel showing some burst/elusiveness that we have yet to see from him in a Bills jersey gets it converted.

 

Kincaid had both feet in bounds and bobbled the ball a little bit when he hit the ground OOB. I don't think it would've been overturned either, but it was close.

 

I'd say that a pass to Samuel probably has a 90% completion chance, but 5% chance at a first down. The pass to Kincaid is more like a 75% completion chance, but 100% a first down. 

 

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

So Josh cost his team the game. That’s nice maybe he can force his way out at the end of the season. 

[Big Blitz]

8 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

 

 

I watched every passing down snap on NFL + Premium  All 22 to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). 

 

UNFORCED ERROR  =  Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision 

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN =  O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block

 

____

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS

 

DAWKINS -  1

EDWARDS -  1

MCGOVERN - 0

ANDERSON - 0

TORRENCE - 0

BROWN - 2 

 

 

-DAWKINS - Had a little trouble with the bull rush ( injury affecting him? ) but generally held up well ( except for last play of game unfortunately)

- EDWARDS -  Generally solid.. was only cleanly beaten once to my eye. 

- MCGOVERN - Very good game. Stout in pass protect. did not give up a pressure. 

- TORRENCE - Only one bad rep from what I saw. 

- BROWN  - had a questionable false start earlier in the game (bad call IMO). He and Edwards were both beaten on same rep late game.

 

Sig Plays

 

q1: UE1 - Josh has time... overthrows wide open Mack Hollins (could Hollins have tracked it better.. sure... could Allen have made a much better throw.. yes)

 

q1 -UE2 Josh has enough time.. misses deep out to Coleman on sideline

 

Q2 - UE 3 - Josh scrambles.. has easy button throw to open #15 .. ignores that and tries to throw cross body back over middle to Hollins. Incomplete

 

Q2 - UE 4 - Allen has easy button throw to open Samuel on shallow crosser but ignores that and throws deep to Kincaid who catches but is OOB

 

Q2 - UE 5 -  Has clean pocket .. underthrows to wide open Kincaid who has beat the defense and would have likely scored td with accurate throw

 

Q4 - UE6 - Josh locks onto primary target on left side and does not see the free blitzer on his right until too late. If he sees it he can hit Johnson in the flat to fill the void.. instead he doesn't .. and is hit and throws it away

 

Q4 -  O Line is beaten - Edwards beaten to inside/ Brown beaten to inside Josh scrambles to avoid takes nasty hit and leaves game

 

Q4 - UE 7 -Last series.. has time to throw.. has open Shavers on shallow crosser.. ignores that and forces deep sideline back shoulder to Coleman ( OPI)

 

Q4 - UE 8 - Passes up open Kincaid on crosser and overthrows Hollins deep left

 

Q4 - O Line beaten - Josh has open Samuel in middle of field but Dawkins guy bull rushes and hits Josh just as he is throwing 

 

 

 

 

OL SUMMARY :  The O Line was not the issue this game. For the most part.. Josh had fairly clean pockets. Most of the pressure he was under was self inflicted. 

 

QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 8 unforced errors this game. In all the games I have graded this is one of the worst grades for #17. The line performed quite well ..most the perceived "pressure" was due to either.. 1.) not seeing the free man coming on a blitz and throwing to the void  2.) no separation from WR when he hit his drop so he bailed right/ or... 3.) He had open easy button throws that he passed up to try to go for homerun play. The most disturbing thing I saw was that more often than not Josh was locked onto his primary target and rarely went through his progressions. As previously stated there were also too many plays were WRs did not get separation. That said there several easy button throws where guys were open that Josh chose to ignore.. and the results were evident.   Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially.  In this case.. Josh' 8 unforced errors were a material factor in the Bills not winning this game. 

 

 

Confirms what I saw.  
 

 

However, the issues with blitz pickups and pre snap recognition have me asking about how well McGovern is doing with this part of the game.  

[Ray Stonada]

It’s funny, Josh is incredible at difficult things but he seems to choose doing something hard over the easy thing, almost always. And he makes it hard for his receivers, too.
 

The games where he decides to take the easy stuff, checkdowns and such, turn out like the Patriots playoff “perfect” game, or the 47-10 Jags game. But easy stuff seems to bore him. 

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I have to strongly disagree on that play. There's almost no chance a pass to Samuel would have moved the chains on 3rd and 13. #23 on the Texans was close enough to make a tackle for a ~5 yard gain. MAYBE a perfectly placed ball AND Samuel showing some burst/elusiveness that we have yet to see from him in a Bills jersey gets it converted.

 

Kincaid had both feet in bounds and bobbled the ball a little bit when he hit the ground OOB. I don't think it would've been overturned either, but it was close.

 

I'd say that a pass to Samuel probably has a 90% completion chance, but 5% chance at a first down. The pass to Kincaid is more like a 75% completion chance, but 100% a first down. 

 

 

 

agree that crosser to Samuel is not getting a first down, its 3rd and 13 and he's barely past LOS in Allen's window

 

Kincaid dropped the first down simple as that

[billieve420]

What all this tells me is that Allen has to be better situationally. He doesn’t have all star crew around him but needs to take the easy play when available and allow guys to make some plays after the catch. Brady deserves blame here as well. The passing game hasn’t looked great since he took over and that includes Diggs from last season.

[Old Coot]

10 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

 

 

I watched every passing down snap on NFL + Premium  All 22 to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). 

 

UNFORCED ERROR  =  Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision 

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN =  O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block

 

____

 

OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS

 

DAWKINS -  1

EDWARDS -  1

MCGOVERN - 0

ANDERSON - 0

TORRENCE - 0

BROWN - 2 

 

 

-DAWKINS - Had a little trouble with the bull rush ( injury affecting him? ) but generally held up well ( except for last play of game unfortunately)

- EDWARDS -  Generally solid.. was only cleanly beaten once to my eye. 

- MCGOVERN - Very good game. Stout in pass protect. did not give up a pressure. 

- TORRENCE - Only one bad rep from what I saw. 

- BROWN  - had a questionable false start earlier in the game (bad call IMO). He and Edwards were both beaten on same rep late game.

 

Sig Plays

 

q1: UE1 - Josh has time... overthrows wide open Mack Hollins (could Hollins have tracked it better.. sure... could Allen have made a much better throw.. yes)

 

q1 -UE2 Josh has enough time.. misses deep out to Coleman on sideline

 

Q2 - UE 3 - Josh scrambles.. has easy button throw to open #15 .. ignores that and tries to throw cross body back over middle to Hollins. Incomplete

 

Q2 - UE 4 - Allen has easy button throw to open Samuel on shallow crosser but ignores that and throws deep to Kincaid who catches but is OOB

 

Q2 - UE 5 -  Has clean pocket .. underthrows to wide open Kincaid who has beat the defense and would have likely scored td with accurate throw

 

Q4 - UE6 - Josh locks onto primary target on left side and does not see the free blitzer on his right until too late. If he sees it he can hit Johnson in the flat to fill the void.. instead he doesn't .. and is hit and throws it away

 

Q4 -  O Line is beaten - Edwards beaten to inside/ Brown beaten to inside Josh scrambles to avoid takes nasty hit and leaves game

 

Q4 - UE 7 -Last series.. has time to throw.. has open Shavers on shallow crosser.. ignores that and forces deep sideline back shoulder to Coleman ( OPI)

 

Q4 - UE 8 - Passes up open Kincaid on crosser and overthrows Hollins deep left

 

Q4 - O Line beaten - Josh has open Samuel in middle of field but Dawkins guy bull rushes and hits Josh just as he is throwing 

 

 

 

 

OL SUMMARY :  The O Line was not the issue this game. For the most part.. Josh had fairly clean pockets. Most of the pressure he was under was self inflicted. 

 

QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 8 unforced errors this game. In all the games I have graded this is one of the worst grades for #17. The line performed quite well ..most the perceived "pressure" was due to either.. 1.) not seeing the free man coming on a blitz and throwing to the void  2.) no separation from WR when he hit his drop so he bailed right/ or... 3.) He had open easy button throws that he passed up to try to go for homerun play. The most disturbing thing I saw was that more often than not Josh was locked onto his primary target and rarely went through his progressions. As previously stated there were also too many plays were WRs did not get separation. That said there several easy button throws where guys were open that Josh chose to ignore.. and the results were evident.   Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially.  In this case.. Josh' 8 unforced errors were a material factor in the Bills not winning this game. 

 

Great contribution to the forum. Thanks for doing this.

 

Based on what you saw, does it appear that, on the unsuccessful passing plays, Josh locks onto a receiver early in the play (maybe the receiver running a mid to deep pattern) or does he seem to go through his reads?

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Granted I may not have seen the all 22 perspective, and I don't think Allen played a great game.  but I do have to take some issues with your conclusions.

There is no such thing as a "perceived pressure"...and according to NFL stats on ESPN.com last night, Allen was under pressure on 45% of his drop backs..a ridiculous number.  If a Blitzer comes in unblocked, that's not a perceived pressure, that's an actual pressure.

And, he wasn't bailing early of the pocket to the right..he was going through his reads and NOBODY WAS OPEN...the bail to the right was in response to a pocket that was beginning to collapse, and he was trying to bide time hoping someone would break open...and they usually didnt.

 

There were definitely a couple of early bails to the right last night. One if he hung on a split second longer he had a guy come open. The other one I noticed I thought he shoulda stood in but he might have ended up throwing it away anyway.

[reddogblitz]

12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Bottom line Josh has never been the same since that hit in Baltimore.  I hope the NFL finds out WTH Allen was allowed to go back in and not go to the tent. his ass was out cold at least for a few seconds.

 

Josh went to the tent. When he first came off the field he did and appeared to tell them he was fine.  Then he went in soon after.

[NewEra]

14 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I'm not sure how this play would be an error by the QB? He makes a great throw on 3nd and 13 and Kincaid dropped it (or maybe he caught it and McD messed up by not challenging it).

 

Unless you're talking about a different play

Because there was an easy play to make, instead, he throws too far wide which leads Kincaid OOB.  It was not a “great throw”.

13 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I have to strongly disagree on that play. There's almost no chance a pass to Samuel would have moved the chains on 3rd and 13. #23 on the Texans was close enough to make a tackle for a ~5 yard gain. MAYBE a perfectly placed ball AND Samuel showing some burst/elusiveness that we have yet to see from him in a Bills jersey gets it converted.

 

Kincaid had both feet in bounds and bobbled the ball a little bit when he hit the ground OOB. I don't think it would've been overturned either, but it was close.

 

I'd say that a pass to Samuel probably has a 90% completion chance, but 5% chance at a first down. The pass to Kincaid is more like a 75% completion chance, but 100% a first down. 

 

 

 

A 75% completion chance to Kincaid IF he throws a more accurate pass.  The placement made it more difficult than an accurate pass would’ve 

[balln]

For all the - our WR room is trash ppl.

 

its not.

 

Look at kc last night. Juju. Who was hot garbage w/ teams outside of kc. But somehow.  Was 7 catches for 130 at 18 yards per catch. Long of 50. On 8 targets. Also look at how efficient they. Are it’s like 8 for 9, 4 for 4 to other receivers. 
 

ITS not the WRs. It’s the QB and the OC. Always was. Always is. always will be. They have a system. They have the qb. They have the qb in total command of that system. We do not. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401671687#home

 

this is why I circle back to firing McD. Hes not gonna hire an OC that will click here. We need a Ben Johnson or slovik

[Bocephuz]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Confirms what I saw.  
 

 

However, the issues with blitz pickups and pre snap recognition have me asking about how well McGovern is doing with this part of the game.  

Great point about McGovern.. i hadn't thought of that angle

9 hours ago, Old Coot said:

Great contribution to the forum. Thanks for doing this.

 

Based on what you saw, does it appear that, on the unsuccessful passing plays, Josh locks onto a receiver early in the play (maybe the receiver running a mid to deep pattern) or does he seem to go through his reads?

For this game more often than not he locked onto his primary read and rarely went through his progressions. He's obviously demonstrated that he is capable of going through his progressions in the past.. so hopefully it was just a momentary lapse of reason. we will see

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, balln said:

For all the - our WR room is trash ppl.

 

its not.

 

Look at kc last night. Juju. Who was hot garbage w/ teams outside of kc. But somehow.  Was 7 catches for 130 at 18 yards per catch. Long of 50. On 8 targets. Also look at how efficient they. Are it’s like 8 for 9, 4 for 4 to other receivers. 
 

ITS not the WRs. It’s the QB and the OC. Always was. Always is. always will be. They have a system. They have the qb. They have the qb in total command of that system. We do not. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401671687#home

 

this is why I circle back to firing McD. Hes not gonna hire an OC that will click here. We need a Ben Johnson or slovik

 

If Terry ever decides to let McDermott go. Hopefully they look to pair up Allen with offensive minded head coach. The play calling leaves a lot to be desired. Allen has to be better no doubt. That was one of the worst passing showings I have ever seen outside of a younger player breaking into the league.

[Bocephuz]

8 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

If Terry ever decides to let McDermott go. Hopefully they look to pair up Allen with offensive minded head coach. The play calling leaves a lot to be desired. Allen has to be better no doubt. That was one of the worst passing showings I have ever seen outside of a younger player breaking into the league.

You look at Andy Reid and the consistency they have there... makes you wonder

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Because there was an easy play to make, instead, he throws too far wide which leads Kincaid OOB.  It was not a “great throw”.

A 75% completion chance to Kincaid IF he throws a more accurate pass.  The placement made it more difficult than an accurate pass would’ve 

 

I have to strongly disagree. This was a well placed ball and should have been a routine catch 

 

https://imgur.com/a/efdlNiY

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

52 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I have to strongly disagree. This was a well placed ball and should have been a routine catch 

 

https://imgur.com/a/efdlNiY

 

 

Correct.  If they're going to criticize that throw by Allen then there really isn't anything the guy can do to make them happy.

 

 

[NewEra]

59 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I have to strongly disagree. This was a well placed ball and should have been a routine catch 

 

https://imgur.com/a/efdlNiY

 

 

Where’s the defender?  Not even in the still shot.

 

He definitely old have caught it- but the throw made it more difficult than it should’ve been.  No reason to throw it that far outside.  He was throwing ball oob all day. 

8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Correct.  If they're going to criticize that throw by Allen then there really isn't anything the guy can do to make them happy.

 

 

lol-  Allen makes me very happy-  I’m an Allen homer.  He was AWFUL on Sunday.  If you don’t see that, then there’s nothing that will ever make you say a bad word about him