Josh Allen Performance Yesterday..a Redux

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Citing one play is not helpful.  Josh is not an anticipatory passer...you can be offended by that, it is just a factual observation.  Look at time to throw and % of first read throw metrics over his years in the league.   If you think that bullet to Kincaid in the seam and the next pass where he just threw it up are good plays good.  He did not have his best game, not saying he is bad.....Mahomes has not been good this year, does not make him a bad QB...game by game sometimes you are on and sometimes not.  Unbunch the panties.

Allen has shown the ability to throw with anticipation, I don’t think that’s even a question.  What’s also not a question is he has no body he can trust to get open/ know their assignment at this point.  Coleman is a rookie, I’ll forgive him.  The inability to separate at all by any of the other guys is a major problem.  Anticipation requires you to know your guys will get to their spot ahead of the defender.  Would you make that kind of throw with this goon squad of WRs out there?  No, you wouldn’t.   This team was built to beat the cover 2, it does it really well.  The problem is, teams see that and are going away from cover 2 because there is nothing to worry about over the top.  The only guy with speed is being used at the LOS, the two guys with experience and hands (Shakir and Kincaid) are not known for separation, but the ability to find soft spots in a zone.  There is NOTHING stopping teams from taking away what this team does best because there is zero threat. 
 

Allen is not without flaw, one being he’s not a great deep ball thrower, yeah it looks nice, but it’s rarely on target.  He’s also showing his nerves with a collapsing pocket this year, I don’t blame him, he’s been under fire.  He continues to roll right and throw back to the middle, that’s a known tendency and if Houston is any indication, teams are now playing that.  His throw back to the middle was more black jerseys than his own. It’s bad.   I won’t blame him for not throwing with anticipation when guys have clearly shown they can’t get to their spots or create separation, that’s just asking for picks and we all can see he’s trying to limit those.  
 

They have to get out of the same patterns or this is going to be a long season and Josh will miss time due to injury.  He’s been getting smacked around and it’s adding up already.   
 

To my eyes, there is an unwavering, non-adjusting scheme and a bunch of guys without the real talent to do much else.  I don’t know where it goes from here, but a couple more games of this and we should be right back to looking at a mid-season Coordinator change.  The real issue is a need for a coaching change in general, but it seems Terry isn’t about to make that move, so we’ll be here year after year, just short of being good enough. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Brand J said:

Simmer down, guys, we’d be 0-5 with Mahomes. @GoBills808 said so!

 

Genuine question for you - did you watch the Chiefs game last night?

[Nihilarian]

The offensive game plan was fine. The play calls were fine. The receivers were fine. Allen changed some play calls and he simply overthrew many many times.

 

The story of the day https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401671859

 

Look at the play-by-play. I left out some run plays and others to make it easier to see.

 

Pass incomplete deep left, pass incomplete deep right...PUNT!

FG

Pass incomplete, penalty, pass incomplete...PUNT!

Pass incomplete deep right to Kincade...PUNT!

Pass incomplete, pass incomplete, pass incomplete...PUNT!

3-17 at the half

TD

TD

Pass incomplete...PUNT!

FG

Pass incomplete, pass incomplete, pass incomplete...PUNT!

 

Very winnable game and if Josh was his usual self its a win!

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Genuine question for you - did you watch the Chiefs game last night?

Not in its entirety.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Not in its entirety.

 

The reason I ask is that if you watch their offensive system compared to ours it is like two different sports. Mahomes played fantastic but it is almost like he is playing a different position compared to Allen. I saw a stat after the game that Mahomes threw zero tight window passes in that game. That takes nothing away from his ability to read the defense and deliver the ball appropriately, in addition to his uncanny ability to get away from pressure in the pocket and create positive plays from nothing, but still it is not comparable to what Allen has to do on a down by down basis within our offensive system.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The reason I ask is that if you watch their offensive system compared to ours it is like two different sports. Mahomes played fantastic but it is almost like he is playing a different position compared to Allen. I saw a stat after the game that Mahomes threw zero tight window passes in that game. That takes nothing away from his ability to read the defense and deliver the ball appropriately, in addition to his uncanny ability to get away from pressure in the pocket and create positive plays from nothing, but still it is not comparable to what Allen has to do on a down by down basis within our offensive system.

Question for you - when Daboll was here, the emphasis was on "windows" throwing to personnel with a demonstrated ability to separate -- i.e., to guys able to create big windows for Allen. Diggs was and is a phenomenal separator, and Beasley was excellent too. The year before they signed Sanders, he had the highest separation rate in the NFL (at NO) and historically had been great at it over the course of his career. Indeed, Beane had been trying to get him for a couple of years and wanted him in 2020. That system worked pretty well for the Bills. Outside of Shakir, the big slows they're rolling out now all struggle to separate, although I still can't explain Samuel in this system because he HAS been a separator in his career and is both fast and quick. MVS is fast but not a good receiver overall. Would you go back to that type of system if you could? 

[zow2]

I mean the lacking of WR playmakers is bad for Josh.  if we had aging Emmanuel Sanders from a few years ago he would be the best deep threat on this team.. and he was like 3rd or 4th string.   Shakir is nice in the slot for sure,  Coleman is a rookie and is not getting targeted much but he's had a couple splash plays...the rest are useless.

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

The reason I ask is that if you watch their offensive system compared to ours it is like two different sports. Mahomes played fantastic but it is almost like he is playing a different position compared to Allen. I saw a stat after the game that Mahomes threw zero tight window passes in that game. That takes nothing away from his ability to read the defense and deliver the ball appropriately, in addition to his uncanny ability to get away from pressure in the pocket and create positive plays from nothing, but still it is not comparable to what Allen has to do on a down by down basis within our offensive system.

Both QBs definitely have different styles of play and operate out of different systems, that’s not debatable. Just thinking of their response to pressure in the pocket, Josh almost always bails to his right - inviting the DE or LB with him - if he doesn’t like what he sees initially, or feels pressure. Contrast that with Mahomes who whirly derby’s in the pocket until one of his receivers shakes free. I brought that up yesterday during the game watching him juke lineman after lineman. I was happy when they finally brought him down because I wasn’t looking forward to the incoming ball washing that was surely to follow had he escaped. Josh’s method eliminates half the field and puts urgency on him to throw the ball because the sideline is coming fast, he’s running out of room. Mahomes method keeps the entire field of play available and extends the clock indefinitely - until someone gets to him, he throws the ball, or rushes past the LoS. Josh’s weapons are subpar, but he’s also not doing himself any favors missing the chunk plays that spring available - especially in an offense that doesn’t have the strongest skill positions. Reading the defense, knowing where to go with the ball, staying in a clean pocket, delivering an accurate pass, we need more from Josh in these areas. Whatever offensive system he’s in, I don’t think it’s too much to ask. 

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Question for you - when Daboll was here, the emphasis was on "windows" throwing to personnel with a demonstrated ability to separate -- i.e., to guys able to create big windows for Allen. Diggs was and is a phenomenal separator, and Beasley was excellent too. The year before they signed Sanders, he had the highest separation rate in the NFL (at NO) and historically had been great at it over the course of his career. Indeed, Beane had been trying to get him for a couple of years and wanted him in 2020. That system worked pretty well for the Bills. Outside of Shakir, the big slows they're rolling out now all struggle to separate, although I still can't explain Samuel in this system because he HAS been a separator in his career and is both fast and quick. MVS is fast but not a good receiver overall. Would you go back to that type of system if you could? 

 

Honestly I don't have a great answer. I think defenses figured that system out and our offense grew stale. But of course I am in favor of having more pass catching talent. The players will always outweigh the scheme. So I don't look to Daboll's scheme as the primary engineer of that 2020 production, I look to the players (and partly defenses at the time not being prepared to defend that type of offense, whereas every defense now is built specifically to stop it).

 

It's a very rare group of offensive coaches out there that can seemingly make it work with almost any group of talent. Andy Reid has modified the Chiefs scheme several times since taking over. With Tyreek Hill they had almost an air raid offense. Defenses adjusted and they traded Hill so he changed to a short passing/run heavy offense. And I don't even know what I would call the scheme that they were running last night. So there is not one specific scheme I am in favor of. I'm in favor of having either an elite offensive coach or having elite offensive talent that an average coach can work with. And then you let the talent determine the scheme.

[Lost]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Would you go back to that type of system if you could? 

 

Yes

[reddogblitz]

8 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Allen to Beasely was our peak offense. Just short throws over the middle to keep the chains short and then big plays to Sanders, Diggs, Gabe, John Brown. He just doesn't seem to look for those quick 4-8 yard crossers that keep the drive going. Look at KC last night with Kelce...he just lines up wide and seems to break across the middle with nobody even within 5 yards of him and bam first down drive keeps going. 

 

Amen brother.  They ran it several times like they always do.  They also ran it a couple of times with #83.  Why can't we run that play to Kincaid or Knox?

 

[BillsClinton]

4 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Amen brother.  They ran it several times like they always do.  They also ran it a couple of times with #83.  Why can't we run that play to Kincaid or Knox?

 

We have been allergic to the quick slant for years in favor of the long developing outside the hash low percentage pass. 

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen is in scramble drill and Hollins just cluelessly keeps running in the opposite direction across the field. You want to know why Mahomes to Kelce is impossible to stop? Kelce just stands still in the wide open space and makes this an easy throw.

 

I mean c'mon Mack:

 

 

I'm not expecting him to be Kelce but there is so much space there to make himself an available target and instead he drifts away from his QB. Basic scramble drill rules tell you he needs to come back to the ball. I have no idea what he is thinking here.

 

This is why Shakir has actually become so valuable to the offense. Beyond his YAC skills, he has developed a knack for making himself an easy target for Allen. These other guys running routes haven't got a clue.

 

Thank you. I blamed Allen more for this one originally. As compared to Hollins lack of awareness to help his QB , again.

I was wrong

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

We tried to play that way against the Ravens and it got us nowhere. The Ravens just sat on the short stuff and made sure our guys felt it too.

 

Everyone is desperately searching for answers that don't exist with the current personnel. Can't go run heavy, can't go downfield, can't separate quickly in short areas. Could Andy Reid make it work with this group? Sure. But we have to be realistic about our coaching and our personnel. No miracle sustainable game plans are coming.

 

The offense is and will remain a slog unless we add a legit talent to the room. Luckily there very well may be several of them available in the coming weeks. Either we make a play for one or we're punting on a possible championship season. There are no other answers.

 

How could Reid make it work , if it's a talent issue ?

17 hours ago, Brand J said:

Allen and Mahomes definitely handle pocket pressure differently, no one can dispute that. Overall, their ceilings are comparable, but Patty’s floor is still much higher than Josh’s. Mahomes has never looked as bad as Josh has at his worst.

 

I’m still loyal to the laundry over any player, so if you gave me the option to trade Josh for Patty - as annoying as Mahomes is - I’d do it in a heartbeat. It’s not that I don’t think Josh can win a championship with less around him, I do, but Patty has that extra little magic and consistency that I believe in a little bit more. And yes, I know he also has Chris Jones who has a knack for making the big defensive play at the most opportune time. Josh has never had that player on defense, but I’d still roll with Pat. 

Von Miller was that opportunity

 I disagree about the magic . Allen has plenty. Just not consistently. and its a different type

 Where LBS and Safeties have fever dreams about him running over through and around them

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Honestly I don't have a great answer. I think defenses figured that system out and our offense grew stale. But of course I am in favor of having more pass catching talent. The players will always outweigh the scheme. So I don't look to Daboll's scheme as the primary engineer of that 2020 production, I look to the players (and partly defenses at the time not being prepared to defend that type of offense, whereas every defense now is built specifically to stop it).

 

It's a very rare group of offensive coaches out there that can seemingly make it work with almost any group of talent. Andy Reid has modified the Chiefs scheme several times since taking over. With Tyreek Hill they had almost an air raid offense. Defenses adjusted and they traded Hill so he changed to a short passing/run heavy offense. And I don't even know what I would call the scheme that they were running last night. So there is not one specific scheme I am in favor of. I'm in favor of having either an elite offensive coach or having elite offensive talent that an average coach can work with. And then you let the talent determine the scheme.

So , It truly is about Adjusting. Not just at half time. But constantly.

and again

For me it will always come down to Coaching. Not just the big picture, but the details.

 As mentioned above

The scramble drill. Bills player need to count four and then go back to the ball or change run like hell with hand in the air.

Coaching

[TBBills Fan]

On 10/7/2024 at 12:10 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Josh was the worst player on the field for this offense yesterday.

 

Look at the final drive that cost us the game.  2nd and ten from our own end zone and he has Coleman and Kincaid each for a guaranteed 5+ yards giving us a more manageable 3rd down and not from inside our own end zone.  Which also gives us more room to punt and pin them back further if we don’t convert. 
 

Josh throws up a prayer to none other than a blanketed Mack Hollins.  WTF is he thinking.  This is as stupid as the decision to even throw all 3 downs by our coaches.  

 

Earlier he had a wide open Hollins on a post for a TD and he locks on to Coleman who isn’t open and throws it out of the end zone instead.  
 

Allen was absolutely terrible yesterday and I love Allen, but we have to all remove our bias and homer caps and be honest about his play yesterday.  I can’t think of a game he was worse since maybe his first game as a rookie.  

He was concussed!  He thought it was shakir