24 HRs Later Relooking At The Loss To HOU

[corta765]

Yesterday was the type of loss I have to give another day before I begin commenting otherwise it is just raging words and anger haha, nothing of substance. Here is my thoughts after the Houston game and in general where things are:

 

1. The offense will not be as bad as they were the last two weeks, BUT it is not as good as they showed either in the first 3. Tape is out on how to slow the offense by pressuring Josh and betting that the Bills pass catchers even with Shakir will not separate in time. I will say this the Ravens and Texans have two very good defensive lines that can cause pressure in way most can't. But if you are part of the camp like I was that this offense was hurting itself by removing Diggs and never adding a true proven veteran or double dipping in the draft you feel sadly justified right now. Hollins has cost the team back to back weeks, Kincaid has regressed badly, MVS apparently exists, Samuels is colossal failure at this point. The two bright spots are Shakir and honestly Coleman who while not perfect has at least made some true plays. The offense may grow, they will have better weeks, and I am sure Brady will figure some things out but the lack of talent at WR brings this team down to an early exit in the playoffs as currently constructed and opens the division up in a way it shouldn't be. I will get to coaching in later but the dashboard on the most important part of the team is blinking in bad way right now.

 

2. Calling a spade a spade 17 needs to be better. Two weeks back to back he has been anywhere from average to atrocious. I understand the issues at line and pass catcher, but he was paid to also be the guy in these games vs top teams. BAL I am less angered at because he seemed far more dialed in and until the epic trick play went down I think he was fine. But yesterday made me question for the first time in years if Josh can go the distance as the guy. For as many issues and lack of support he had, he also caused his own errors and just seemed lost in a very bad way. The critics of Josh not being at Mahomes level or Lamar will have a field day and justifiably so. I am sure that Josh will rebound eventually and have bunch of good games, but days like yesterday are why he has never won an MVP and why people say he is overrated or will not carry the water to get them over the hump. I have tried to ignore that for a bit, but when you are now in the record book for worst completion % in history that is saying something.

 

3. Coaching AGAIN. I feel like I am repeating myself but this is why they have never got the 1 seed, it feels like a yearly occurrence this staff successfully cost this team a win that matters big time standings wise and this time nationally they got roasted. I resigned myself last year that McD is probably not going anywhere unless they miss the playoffs badly, so I won't waste time on the issues and errors again. Babich I will give some flowers to because the defense other then the blown coverage on Collins TD (which was bad) did a nice job keeping them in this game and disrupting Stroud in the 2nd half. The injuries are known with what they are dealing with so given that I thought they did as well as expected given the kids.

 

4. Luck. FOR ONE FREAKING TIME CAN A KICKER FLUB A DISTANCE KICK OR MAYBE JUST MAYBE MISS. SWEAR TO GOD IT IS ALWAYS US ON THAT SHORT END OF THE STICK. Rant over.

 

5. The rushing attack will need to be used more whether I like it or not. Cook has had a good season, Johnson & Davis need to be used more. When they get the rushing attack going good things have been happening. I expect when the offense refinds itself it will become like last year the final 6-7 games where they run a lot and pass when it has opportunity. I think your wasting Joshs talent but so be it I guess if that is your best way to win.

 

6. Dwanye Carter looks like a potentially very good DT. One game I know, but very much liked his play and aggression. He blew up their rushing attack a bunch and kept moving the pocket back. I honestly would rather he stays in over Oliver or Jones at this point who both have been shaky this year.

 

7.  Kincaid. Honestly the greatest disappointment for me this year is him. He showed so many flashes last year and looked like at least a quality starter long term. This year he isn't catching the ball, isn't breaking coverage, and in general at times feels like a liability. They really need him to pull a 180 because a lot of this offenses potential relies on him becoming a focal point.

 

8. LB doesn't feel too bad right now. I miss Milano, but Dorian Williams has showed some nice growth and with Bernard back feels like a solid duo. Bernard was great yesterday and maybe Williams can grow into a quality starter where those two are the future together long term.

 

9. The AFC sucks this year which makes the last two losses even more frustrating. If ever there was a year where the 1 seed might be really open (KC will lose some games coming up) or even the 2 seed for gosh sakes this year really feels like it and they are blowing that opportunity. 

 

10. Monday night feels pretty massive at this point. Not season ending as much as season altering. A win and your 4-2 with a stranglehold on the division with a lot of home games coming. Lose and your tied for the division along with being 2-3 in conference which starts hurting your playoff chances in general. The Jets are not exactly looking great either but truthfully I think this game is far more about Buffalo coming out with a truly good effort and gameplan across the board then NY. 

[Ned Flanders]

40 minutes ago, corta765 said:

10. Monday night feels pretty massive at this point. Not season ending as much as season altering. A win and your 4-2 with a stranglehold on the division with a lot of home games coming. Lose and your tied for the division along with being 2-3 in conference which starts hurting your playoff chances in general. The Jets are not exactly looking great either but truthfully I think this game is far more about Buffalo coming out with a truly good effort and gameplan across the board then NY. 

I hate to throw the term "must win" around in week six, but this is as close as it gets next Monday night.

Edited October 7 by Ned Flanders

[Big Turk]

This is one of those games the Bills would have won by at least 10 points the previous 4 years. Texans did everything to hand us the game and we refused to take it.

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

This is one of those games the Bills would have won by at least 10 points the previous 4 years. Texans did everything to hand us the game and we refused to take it.

 

If Collins doesn't get hurt, then I think HOU wins easily. Once he went out their offense stalled.

[dorquemada]

8 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

I hate the throw the term "must win" around in week six, but this is as close as it gets next Monday night.

 

It's certainly a must win, but probably more importantly it's going to show us if this team folds like a cheap suit or if there is any fight in them at all.  If they're going to be tissue paper soft like yesterday and last week then i dont care if they win another game this year because it'll just be a quick playoff exit if we somehow manage to slip in.  Maybe a real crash and burn type season rids us of coach mcdoofus.  Who knows, in some alternative reality if Beane feels the heat he'll actually spend a high draft pick on someone that will help Allen rather than a bunch of stupid passion projects who all turn out to be JAGs

[CodeMonkey]

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

4. Luck. FOR ONE FREAKING TIME CAN A KICKER FLUB A DISTANCE KICK OR MAYBE JUST MAYBE MISS. SWEAR TO GOD IT IS ALWAYS US ON THAT SHORT END OF THE STICK. Rant over.

Their kicker was exactly why the Texans did what they did at the end of the game by punting and pinning the Bills deep (after gifting, or the zebras gifting depending on your perspective, with the intentional grounding call).  They figured a 3 and out gave them a good shot at winning in regulation with the range and accuracy of their kicker.  And with I think all 3 timeouts left at that point it was very possible.  Of course the Bills made it even easier for them with the [downright stupid] 3 straight incomplete passes.

Basically Texans coaches 1, Bills coaches 0.

[corta765]

18 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

I hate the throw the term "must win" around in week six, but this is as close as it gets next Monday night.

It is why I put it as season altering. The season is not over Monday but the directions it goes vary big time based on W/L

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Their kicker was exactly why the Texans did what they did at the end of the game by punting and pinning the Bills deep (after gifting, or the zebras gifting depending on your perspective, with the intentional grounding call).  They figured a 3 and out gave them a good shot at winning in regulation with the range and accuracy of their kicker.  And with I think all 3 timeouts left at that point it was very possible.  Of course the Bills made it even easier for them with the [downright stupid] 3 straight incomplete passes.

Basically Texans coaches 1, Bills coaches 0.

 

So if they run the ball 3 times and get next to nothing like they had been all 2nd half, especially with the Texans expecting runs down there, force Houston to burn their 3 timeouts AND likely give them an extra 10-15 seconds of clock time since run plays are much quicker than passing plays, how does that change the outcome? The Texans still easily could have done exactly what they did and kicked the FG.

 

That's something that is lost on most posters. You run 3 times and don't get a first down, you are handing them an extra 10-15 seconds of time on the clock.

Edited October 7 by Big Turk

[Dillenger4]

22 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Yesterday was the type of loss I have to give another day before I begin commenting otherwise it is just raging words and anger haha, nothing of substance. Here is my thoughts after the Houston game and in general where things are:

 

1. The offense will not be as bad as they were the last two weeks, BUT it is not as good as they showed either in the first 3. Tape is out on how to slow the offense by pressuring Josh and betting that the Bills pass catchers even with Shakir will not separate in time. I will say this the Ravens and Texans have two very good defensive lines that can cause pressure in way most can't. But if you are part of the camp like I was that this offense was hurting itself by removing Diggs and never adding a true proven veteran or double dipping in the draft you feel sadly justified right now. Hollins has cost the team back to back weeks, Kincaid has regressed badly, MVS apparently exists, Samuels is colossal failure at this point. The two bright spots are Shakir and honestly Coleman who while not perfect has at least made some true plays. The offense may grow, they will have better weeks, and I am sure Brady will figure some things out but the lack of talent at WR brings this team down to an early exit in the playoffs as currently constructed and opens the division up in a way it shouldn't be. I will get to coaching in later but the dashboard on the most important part of the team is blinking in bad way right now.

 

2. Calling a spade a spade 17 needs to be better. Two weeks back to back he has been anywhere from average to atrocious. I understand the issues at line and pass catcher, but he was paid to also be the guy in these games vs top teams. BAL I am less angered at because he seemed far more dialed in and until the epic trick play went down I think he was fine. But yesterday made me question for the first time in years if Josh can go the distance as the guy. For as many issues and lack of support he had, he also caused his own errors and just seemed lost in a very bad way. The critics of Josh not being at Mahomes level or Lamar will have a field day and justifiably so. I am sure that Josh will rebound eventually and have bunch of good games, but days like yesterday are why he has never won an MVP and why people say he is overrated or will not carry the water to get them over the hump. I have tried to ignore that for a bit, but when you are now in the record book for worst completion % in history that is saying something.

 

3. Coaching AGAIN. I feel like I am repeating myself but this is why they have never got the 1 seed, it feels like a yearly occurrence this staff successfully cost this team a win that matters big time standings wise and this time nationally they got roasted. I resigned myself last year that McD is probably not going anywhere unless they miss the playoffs badly, so I won't waste time on the issues and errors again. Babich I will give some flowers to because the defense other then the blown coverage on Collins TD (which was bad) did a nice job keeping them in this game and disrupting Stroud in the 2nd half. The injuries are known with what they are dealing with so given that I thought they did as well as expected given the kids.

 

4. Luck. FOR ONE FREAKING TIME CAN A KICKER FLUB A DISTANCE KICK OR MAYBE JUST MAYBE MISS. SWEAR TO GOD IT IS ALWAYS US ON THAT SHORT END OF THE STICK. Rant over.

 

5. The rushing attack will need to be used more whether I like it or not. Cook has had a good season, Johnson & Davis need to be used more. When they get the rushing attack going good things have been happening. I expect when the offense refinds itself it will become like last year the final 6-7 games where they run a lot and pass when it has opportunity. I think your wasting Joshs talent but so be it I guess if that is your best way to win.

 

6. Dwanye Carter looks like a potentially very good DT. One game I know, but very much liked his play and aggression. He blew up their rushing attack a bunch and kept moving the pocket back. I honestly would rather he stays in over Oliver or Jones at this point who both have been shaky this year.

 

7.  Kincaid. Honestly the greatest disappointment for me this year is him. He showed so many flashes last year and looked like at least a quality starter long term. This year he isn't catching the ball, isn't breaking coverage, and in general at times feels like a liability. They really need him to pull a 180 because a lot of this offenses potential relies on him becoming a focal point.

 

8. LB doesn't feel too bad right now. I miss Milano, but Dorian Williams has showed some nice growth and with Bernard back feels like a solid duo. Bernard was great yesterday and maybe Williams can grow into a quality starter where those two are the future together long term.

 

9. The AFC sucks this year which makes the last two losses even more frustrating. If ever there was a year where the 1 seed might be really open (KC will lose some games coming up) or even the 2 seed for gosh sakes this year really feels like it and they are blowing that opportunity. 

 

10. Monday night feels pretty massive at this point. Not season ending as much as season altering. A win and your 4-2 with a stranglehold on the division with a lot of home games coming. Lose and your tied for the division along with being 2-3 in conference which starts hurting your playoff chances in general. The Jets are not exactly looking great either but truthfully I think this game is far more about Buffalo coming out with a truly good effort and gameplan across the board then NY. 

Perfect post bud. well said. I'm hurting today because I'm starting to realize that Point #2 is correct. And it kills me to admit it.

[corta765]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

This is one of those games the Bills would have won by at least 10 points the previous 4 years. Texans did everything to hand us the game and we refused to take it.

It is why most analysis said this year will be different for the Bills with a lot of games like this or Cards because the talent especially on offense is not there or developed. The Bills will probably get to 10-7/11-6 by seasons end, but the journey will be far harsher and closer then years prior and they will waste opportunities that they use to convert that may have allowed a far greater season W/L wise.

[CodeMonkey]

Just now, corta765 said:

It is why I put it as season altering. The season is not over Monday but the directions it goes vary big time based on W/L

Should be a very interesting game.  The Jets D doesn't suck, and the ravens and texans have both shown how to make the Bills Offense look mediocre at best.  If they follow that same path and the Bills have no answer it could be a very long game.  And another close one because I think the Bills D should do well against the Jets O.

[ALLinALLEN]

Great post, well done. Agree with about all of it.

[corta765]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

Perfect post bud. well said. I'm hurting today because I'm starting to realize that Point #2 is correct. And it kills me to admit it.

Trust me it has been in my head since the CIN loss. Mahomes forever is 1 in the league, Josh at his best is probably the only QB that actually can go toe to toe to that degree which we saw in 13 seconds. BUT his bad variance games which have happened every year minus 2020 (which surprise he was 2nd in MVP) eliminate him from being an MVP front runner and also lower the team itself from hitting that 13-14 win place. I do not doubt he has the talent to win a SB, but the flaws especially on a roster that now has less talent with part of that being his salary as a reason are real as heck. Hate saying it, but that just seems to be his place. I do not thing he could win a SB like Mahomes did last year in terms of offensive talent around him, I think he will always need a little bit more like Burrow Lamar etc.

[CodeMonkey]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So if they run the ball 3 times and get next to nothing like they had been all 2nd half, especially with the Texans expecting runs down there, force Houston to burn their 3 timeouts AND likely give them an extra 10-15 seconds of clock time since run plays are much quicker than passing plays, how does that change the outcome? The Texans still easily could have done exactly what they did and kicked the FG.

 

That's something that is lost on most posters. You run 3 times and don't get a first down, you are handing them an extra 10-15 seconds of time on the clock.

You mean as opposed to 3 incomplete passes?  A few seconds maybe with Allen in the pocket, but 10-15????  Plus a holding penalty in the endzone with Allen looking to pass ends the game right there.  Granted even with all their timeouts left they could only run 1 play which netted 5 yards, and their kicker made it with more than 5 yards to spare.  But I stand by stupid play calling.

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Should be a very interesting game.  The Jets D doesn't suck, and the ravens and texans have both shown how to make the Bills Offense look mediocre at best.  If they follow that same path and the Bills have no answer it could be a very long game.  And another close one because I think the Bills D should do well against the Jets O.

 The big thing with the Bills is they almost need this more then NY which is weird to say, but Buffalo expects a higher standard and knows they are opening the door wider if they lose. They have been in this spot before and closed and McD has got the team together and going. NY hasn't & Rodgers frankly just looks old and very average, if the Bills can do the good things they do they will win.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

You mean as opposed to 3 incomplete passes?  A few seconds maybe with Allen in the pocket, but 10-15????  Plus a holding penalty in the endzone with Allen looking to pass ends the game right there.  Granted even with all their timeouts left they could only run 1 play which netted 5 yards, and their kicker made it with more than 5 yards to spare.  But I stand by stupid play calling.

 

That deep throw to Hollins literally took about 8-10 seconds off the clock on it's own by the time the ball landed, that's probably more than 2 running plays would have. IMO, Bills might have been better off letting Allen just launch the ball as far and as high as he could to try and run time off the clock...could have probably damn near ran it down under 5 seconds before they had to punt.

Edited October 7 by Big Turk

[Robert Paulson]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So if they run the ball 3 times and get next to nothing like they had been all 2nd half, especially with the Texans expecting runs down there, force Houston to burn their 3 timeouts AND likely give them an extra 10-15 seconds of clock time since run plays are much quicker than passing plays, how does that change the outcome? The Texans still easily could have done exactly what they did and kicked the FG.

 

That's something that is lost on most posters. You run 3 times and don't get a first down, you are handing them an extra 10-15 seconds of time on the clock.

I was not expecting 5 wide. I was expecting 12 personnel so the could run play action if they were going to throw. 5 wide was m8nd boggling.

[PayDaBill$]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That deep throw to Hollins literally took about 8-10 seconds off the clock on its own by the time the ball landed, that's probably more than 2 running plays would have.

This is how I look at it; we’re  backed up on our own goal line, run the damn ball.  Cook & JA had some success running.  In addition to the clock, the bigger problem was that we needed space. Punting off 1 step deep in your end zone is tough.  If you run you hopefully cause Houston to burn TO’s and at least move the ball forward enough to give  the punter more space for a deeper punt downfield. The biggest issue was that Houston ended up with great field position.

 

For me that series defied logic.  We needed to execute and extend that game.

Edited October 7 by PayDaBill$

[RiotAct]

only been 19 hours

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

This is how I look at it; we’re  backed up on our own goal line, run the damn ball.  Cook & JA had some success running.  In addition to the clock, we needed space. Punting off 1 step deep in your end zone is tough.  If you run you hopefully cause Houston to burn TO’s and at least move the ball forward giving the punter more space for a deeper punt and get a deeper punt.

 

For me that series defied logic.  We needed to execute and extend that game.

 

Why are you assuming they would have gained yards?  They just as easily could have been stuffed or lost yards.  The run game was NOT effective most of the 2nd half and that wasn't even when the Texans assumed it was coming like they would have down there.

 

Also, if they didn't get a first down, they are handing the Texans an additional 10-15 seconds of clock time since running plays are only 2-3 seconds most of the time. 

 

The Bills weren't fighting the timeouts, they were fighting the clock.  They needed to get a first down. Doesn't matter what they did, unless they got a first down the outcomes would have been the same.

Edited October 7 by Big Turk