Kevbeau Posted June 22, 2005 Posted June 22, 2005 Undoubtedly. The oil companies are basically total crooks, as far as I'm concerned - and to me, that is where most of the fault lies. I was just making the point that crude prices not not directly relate to current gas prices. 363936[/snapback] Bingo. I deal with plastic resin purchasing, so we hedge on oil quite a bit. Our risk mgmt guys are expecting $72-$75 a barrel by end of the year. Not only is refining maxed out, but so are oil tankers. On top of that excess capacity is at an all time low, about a million barrels. If China keeps growing at a 9-10% clip we can easily hurdle $80 a barrel. US consumers haven't curbed their usage despite the uptick in prices (probbaly won't see that until $3-$4 a gallon. Good news is that the US economy is surging faster than expected, but this in turn puts further strain on demand.
Ghost of BiB Posted June 22, 2005 Posted June 22, 2005 Bingo. I deal with plastic resin purchasing, so we hedge on oil quite a bit. Our risk mgmt guys are expecting $72-$75 a barrel by end of the year. Not only is refining maxed out, but so are oil tankers. On top of that excess capacity is at an all time low, about a million barrels. If China keeps growing at a 9-10% clip we can easily hurdle $80 a barrel. US consumers haven't curbed their usage despite the uptick in prices (probbaly won't see that until $3-$4 a gallon. Good news is that the US economy is surging faster than expected, but this in turn puts further strain on demand. 364736[/snapback] From a past life, I bought natural gas in bulk on the market. I used to hedge in August for the Nov-Feb period. Would have liked to have done sooner sometimes, but projections too far down the road are inflated. I understand that, and why.They generally drop far enough out to forcast for usage. The entire energy industry is such a racket. Damn...the major players are literally raping us raw. I could tell you tales of the costs to run UNDER a prediction, with the tacked on loss crap from the Henry Hub to Baltimore (I got charged, essentially fined for the LOSS of what I didn't use that MIGHT have leaked out of the system). It's another reason many airlines are fuggged. Good operations like SW hedge their fuel. Others don't, reasons why...but who knows? To me, even if you take a 6 month NET loss ifyou end up overpaying, at least you know what you are paying. You can control costs accordingly. Others play the lotto with it, going for a potential drop to boost a quarterly earning. HOTPOCKETs UNITE! I'd love for someone who really knows this to chime in. I'm an amatuer. It could be educational. Kevbeau is a good start.
todd Posted June 22, 2005 Posted June 22, 2005 I did some consulting for a large group that had direct relations to american oil companies. I won't say more than that, because I can't. I will say that the price of gasoline (I won't say barrels of oil, because they aren't directly related) is influenced by many factors, and is a very complex equation to predict. Those that do it well can make tons of $$. I'm not rich, BTW. :-) Anyway, I will say that American oil companies were very happy that an oil man was elected, then re-elected, and they have profited greatly because of it, and will continue to do so for years. I will also say that it is one of the most crooked and at the same time influential businesses I've ever seen at many levels. And if you think that their lobby just works with Republicans, think again. Republicans and Democrats are equally swayed by the dollar sign, and American Oil is great at putting their lobby dollars in the right place. Better than even the AARP, and much quieter about it.
beausox Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Is my memory correct that during "the gas wars" circa 1961 that gasoline was eleven cents when normal was 25 cents or so?
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Is my memory correct that during "the gas wars" circa 1961 that gasoline was eleven cents when normal was 25 cents or so? 364881[/snapback] Now you're an expert on the oil industry, too? Why don't you just learn to shut the !@#$ up and read; you might learn something.
VABills Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Now you're an expert on the oil industry, too? Why don't you just learn to shut the !@#$ up and read; you might learn something. 364886[/snapback] Didn't you know Jesuits are oil cartel members?
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Didn't you know Jesuits are oil cartel members? 364888[/snapback] Well, it only makes sense, since the Pope is the head of OPEC...
VABills Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Well, it only makes sense, since the Pope is the head of OPEC... 364891[/snapback] That's Opus Dei, not OPEC.
Ghost of BiB Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 You guys obviously don't remember when I was the Pope, and did those European commercials for BP. That was a little before the Sister Mary-Veronica incident.
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 That's Opus Dei, not OPEC. 364893[/snapback] Opus Dei and OPEC are the same thing. Dan Brown said so in one of his books...
Terry Tate Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Was it 1961 or 1962 that gas price was 11 cents? 364954[/snapback] Couldn't say. DOE lists the nationwide average in 1961 as $0.31/gallon. This chart has the national average per gallon from 1919-2004. Also includes the prices adjusted for inflation - which would indicate (again, when adjusted for inflation) the national average price per gallon over the last 87 years has been as high as $2.92/gal (1981), as low as $1.22/gal (1998), and averaged $2.08 per gallon. From 1986-2002 we've had some of the cheapest gas in our history.
Alaska Darin Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Opus Dei and OPEC are the same thing. Dan Brown said so in one of his books... 364949[/snapback] That's fuggin' funny.
beausox Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Couldn't say. DOE lists the nationwide average in 1961 as $0.31/gallon. This chart has the national average per gallon from 1919-2004. Also includes the prices adjusted for inflation - which would indicate (again, when adjusted for inflation) the national average price per gallon over the last 87 years has been as high as $2.92/gal (1981), as low as $1.22/gal (1998), and averaged $2.08 per gallon. From 1986-2002 we've had some of the cheapest gas in our history. 364977[/snapback] If memory serves me it was due to a gas war due to ,of course ,overproduction. Since new refineries are few it is axiomatic that increased demand will drive prices upward. What is the price per gallon at which you will change your consumption? Anyway every one knows the "black Pope" is responsible for this. Or is it simmians?
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 If memory serves me it was due to a gas war due to ,of course ,overproduction. Since new refineries are few it is axiomatic that increased demand will drive prices upward. What is the price per gallon at which you will change your consumption? Anyway every one knows the "black Pope" is responsible for this. Or is it simmians? 365004[/snapback] You really need to learn a language. Any language. Doesn't even have to be English; kiSwahili, coherently expressed, would be more comprehensible to us than the nonsense you type now.
ieatcrayonz Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 I don't care about the price of gas going up. I'll just cut the hot pockets out of my budget. The issue that we need to be concerned with is our dependence on foreign oil. If something catastrophic should happen in the middle east, we'd be in a world of hurt.
ExiledInIllinois Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 Refining is the issue - as it has been for years. The oil that President Clinton released from the NPR never made it to market in the US and was actually sold overseas because there wasn't refining capacity to handle it. According to one of industry buddies, gas prices would drop as much as a third if the oil companies simply stopped refining mid-grade gasoline and instead used that capacity to increase production of the lowest grade. They're definitely crooks and so is pretty much every large and too rich entity here in the US, starting with good ol' Uncle Sam. 364045[/snapback] Hey! My 1994 Chrysler recommends 89/mid-grade! You want me to get pings or pay extra for premium? Actually they probably can start phasing it out... Since chip technology has gotten cheaper... Either recommend 87/regular or premium!
beausox Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 You really need to learn a language. Any language. Doesn't even have to be English; kiSwahili, coherently expressed, would be more comprehensible to us than the nonsense you type now. 365034[/snapback] To US? Who is US?
todd Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 I don't care about the price of gas going up. I'll just cut the hot pockets out of my budget. The issue that we need to be concerned with is our dependence on foreign oil. If something catastrophic should happen in the middle east, we'd be in a world of hurt. 365047[/snapback] As much as I hate our dependence on middle-east oil, I'm not worried about something catostrophic happening. They are as dependent on our money as we are on their oil. It's the beauty of capitalism. Anyway, I'm only concerned with oil's effect on our foriegn policy.
Ghost of BiB Posted June 23, 2005 Posted June 23, 2005 As much as I hate our dependence on middle-east oil, I'm not worried about something catostrophic happening. They are as dependent on our money as we are on their oil. It's the beauty of capitalism. Anyway, I'm only concerned with oil's effect on our foriegn policy. 365151[/snapback] Something catastrophic isn't outside the realm of possibility. A few well placed terrorist attacks in the middle east could disrupt a lot of flow.
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