The throw to Shakir deserves its own thread

[Sweats]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I disagree with a lot of this.

 

First, the D definitely is not "talentless."  Benford, Douglas, Bernard, Williams, Rousseau, Miller, Oliver, Jones are all very talented players. And Milano, Bernard, and Johnson.  They just don't fit the model that you seem to think the Bills need. 

 

As I said to you yesterday, I think you're wrong when you say what the Ravens do isn't difficult or progressive. They have two supremely talented backs, they have lots of motion, they use their offensive line creatively. They are going to be a headache for a lot of teams until coordinators begin to figure out responses.  

 

I agree that the Bills have had problems stopping the run. It's very much by design. Like it or not, McDermott's approach has been to stop the pass and do the best you can against the run. And teams around the league have copied that approach - they're playing two-deep safeties, sophisticated coverages, all the stuff McDermott's done for a while now.  That's why running is up and passing is down around the league. McDermott's run defenses have been weak, but they've been pretty good inside the red zone. He puts his biggest boys on the field - still not as big as other teams have, but the biggest he has, and he challenges his smaller, quicker players to make plays. They've done that. 

 

I've never been convinced that McDermott is right about all of that, but that's clearly his philosophy, and it's worked pretty well.  Now that the emphasis around the league has shifted to the run so dramatically, the Bills may be behind the curve. Other teams have bigger defensive lines, better attacking defensive linemen, because they foolishly wasted resources on them three or four years ago. I say foolishly, because those guys weren't the best guys to have three or four years ago. Now that the style of play seems to be changing so dramatically, those guys they may have taken "foolishly" three or four years ago are just right for the way offenses are forcing them to play now. 

 

All of that is to say that although the Bills have plenty of talent on defense, I think you may be right in one sense: The Bills may not have the right talent to play the way the league now demands. However, I think it's way too early to tell that. The Ravens really are a peculiar team; there isn't another team in the league that plays the way the Ravens do, and that's been true ever since Lamar got there. 

 

I really think the offense is a much bigger concern, which is where you said yesterday that we just have different views about what's going on. I'm concerned about the offense because the Bills should have had a pretty good sense of what they were likely to get from the Ravens defense, and the offense wasn't prepared for it. Lots of people, including me, have complained about that gadget play precisely because it played into the hands of the kind of defense the Ravens play. That's bad game planning. 

 

In other words, I think the offense needs better answers. You think the defense needs to have better answers, but I think the biggest part of the answer for the defense is don't play the Ravens every week, because it's a bad matchup for how the Bills are built. 

 

 

 

 

Alright, you've given me a lot to chew on here.....

 

* What i have seen so far in McD's tenure as the Bills HC, is that our D continuously drops the ball (so to speak) in the face of adversity.......13 seconds (nothing more needs to be said here).......KC in the playoffs last year (a very beatable team that marched up and down the field at will)........Ravens last Sunday (our secondary was trash, McD stuck with the Nickle, let the King run wild all over us, etc.)........VS. Minny a couple years back (Minny with a 4th and 24, JJ jumps up and catches it extending the drive and scoring, forcing OT and we lost).........Hail Murray (yep, even this one).

Is it the players, the coaching, the schemes?........it all baffles me to this day that in big games, the D chokes and this is undeniable.

 

*McD lives and dies with the Nickle, whether it's working or not. I don't know whether he is stubborn, thinks he's the smartest guy in the room or whatever, but in some respects, he is stuck in his ways, and it starts and ends with him. I think our D line is as good as any in the league, but beyond that (our secondary) there's not much to be hopeful about. Hamlin is lost out there and no matter of coaching will ever help him. He lacks the skills and talent to be competent at his job and because of his "feel good" story he remains a roster staple......sorry, not sorry.

 

* You know the old adage, "D wins championships".......i believed it then, i still believe it today. I don't care how strong an O is, the D carries the team. You can score all the points you want, but if your D can't stop the other team from scoring points then you better hope it's a FG to TD battle.

 

* Our O struggles at times but can usually pull it together sometimes even just enough to squeak out a win......the O is the last thing i am worried about. With JA at the helm, anything is possible. Yes, the WR's are a concern, but we all knew that coming into this season. Contrary to popular belief, we have a lot of weapons on O......Cook/Davis, Shakir, Kincaid/Knox, Coleman, etc. Once these guys figure it out, once Brady figures it out, they will gel and it will come together, i am not worried about this.

Also, you know yourself that the league is constantly changing.....are we doing enough to keep up? It used to be WR's in the long game, then it changed to WR's and TE's over the middle and now that teams have figured out how to defend this, it's now becoming more of a hybrid of the run game mixed with over the middle and all disguised with motions and play action. We used motions and play action in the first 3 games this year and nothing against the Ravens. That is on Brady.

 

* And yes, the Ravens are an anomaly, however, they punched our D in the mouth on the very first play and dared us to stop the King all night long.....we stayed in a high safety look (are we afraid of LJ's arm?), couldn't match the power at the line and let Baltimore have their way with us. The Ravens were going to continue to run the ball straight at us until we stopped them and forced them into something else......they didn't have to change their game plan because it was working for them all night long, we had to change ours to suit which was to finally get pressure at the line and force LJ into long situations and make mistakes which worked effectively in the 2nd half, for the most part. Why did we wait until the 2nd half to make these adjustments and not in game? 

 

Yes, we see the game differently and there's nothing wrong with that.

I see the problem being on the D and not just this year, but for McD's tenure as Bills HC and as a D minded guy, you would think that he would be able to recognize long before game day that a running team will run the ball......and maybe plan for that or at least have a backup plan.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Alright, you've given me a lot to chew on here.....

 

* What i have seen so far in McD's tenure as the Bills HC, is that our D continuously drops the ball (so to speak) in the face of adversity.......13 seconds (nothing more needs to be said here).......KC in the playoffs last year (a very beatable team that marched up and down the field at will)........Ravens last Sunday (our secondary was trash, McD stuck with the Nickle, let the King run wild all over us, etc.)........VS. Minny a couple years back (Minny with a 4th and 24, JJ jumps up and catches it extending the drive and scoring, forcing OT and we lost).........Hail Murray (yep, even this one).

Is it the players, the coaching, the schemes?........it all baffles me to this day that in big games, the D chokes and this is undeniable.

 

*McD lives and dies with the Nickle, whether it's working or not. I don't know whether he is stubborn, thinks he's the smartest guy in the room or whatever, but in some respects, he is stuck in his ways, and it starts and ends with him. I think our D line is as good as any in the league, but beyond that (our secondary) there's not much to be hopeful about. Hamlin is lost out there and no matter of coaching will ever help him. He lacks the skills and talent to be competent at his job and because of his "feel good" story he remains a roster staple......sorry, not sorry.

 

* You know the old adage, "D wins championships".......i believed it then, i still believe it today. I don't care how strong an O is, the D carries the team. You can score all the points you want, but if your D can't stop the other team from scoring points then you better hope it's a FG to TD battle.

 

* Our O struggles at times but can usually pull it together sometimes even just enough to squeak out a win......the O is the last thing i am worried about. With JA at the helm, anything is possible. Yes, the WR's are a concern, but we all knew that coming into this season. Contrary to popular belief, we have a lot of weapons on O......Cook/Davis, Shakir, Kincaid/Knox, Coleman, etc. Once these guys figure it out, once Brady figures it out, they will gel and it will come together, i am not worried about this.

Also, you know yourself that the league is constantly changing.....are we doing enough to keep up? It used to be WR's in the long game, then it changed to WR's and TE's over the middle and now that teams have figured out how to defend this, it's now becoming more of a hybrid of the run game mixed with over the middle and all disguised with motions and play action. We used motions and play action in the first 3 games this year and nothing against the Ravens. That is on Brady.

 

* And yes, the Ravens are an anomaly, however, they punched our D in the mouth on the very first play and dared us to stop the King all night long.....we stayed in a high safety look (are we afraid of LJ's arm?), couldn't match the power at the line and let Baltimore have their way with us. The Ravens were going to continue to run the ball straight at us until we stopped them and forced them into something else......they didn't have to change their game plan because it was working for them all night long, we had to change ours to suit which was to finally get pressure at the line and force LJ into long situations and make mistakes which worked effectively in the 2nd half, for the most part. Why did we wait until the 2nd half to make these adjustments and not in game? 

 

Yes, we see the game differently and there's nothing wrong with that.

I see the problem being on the D and not just this year, but for McD's tenure as Bills HC and as a D minded guy, you would think that he would be able to recognize long before game day that a running team will run the ball......and maybe plan for that or at least have a backup plan.

This is really good.  I agree with a lot of it:

 

I agree that the defense drops the ball at key times. That is because, I think, McD builds his defense to be able to play every way imaginable.  The result is they're very good at almost everything, but not truly great at anything. That's the wrong style when it comes to crunch time. McD likes a Rousseau over of a Chris Jones, because Rousseau can do all kinds of things. The result is that when you need a big play, you have Rousseau instead of Chris Jones. That means in crunch time, you don't have a playmaker to change the game for you. I'm not disagreeing at all; I'm just saying that is why they have let us down in critical moments. And it's not just the players - it's the coaches' style. I don't like it. Whereas, on offense, I always have the feeling that Josh will find a way, on defense, I expect them to give up 12 on third and 11 in the fourth quarter.

 

I've been pleasantly surprised by Hamlin. Better than I expected, but I agree.

 

The nickel? Well, if the linebackers get healthy and the Bills get the Ravens in the playoffs, I'm expecting we'll see a lot of Bernard-Milano-Williams, with Johnson subbing in somewhere. I mentioned in the Rockpile Review that I liked Williams on Sunday night. His tackling was superb and in particular, he tackled Henry like Henry was just any other running back. The thing about living and dying with the nickel is, I think, a question of the era in which McDermott learned defense. His entire career, the name of the game has been stopping the pass, so the nickel was the way to go. He's not the only guy who runs a lot of nickel, but he was among the first. If the pendulum really has swung and offenses are going to be more balanced for the next several years, then I expect we'll see McDermott change. 4-3 is the defense to run against balanced attacks. 4-2 is what McDermott chose to run because over the past ten years, very few teams actually were balanced - they all were trying to throw for 250 and run for 80-100.  

 

This is the only place where I disagree with you:  

Quote

And yes, the Ravens are an anomaly, however, they punched our D in the mouth on the very first play and dared us to stop the King all night long.....we stayed in a high safety look (are we afraid of LJ's arm?), couldn't match the power at the line.

First, other than his opening run, Henry averaged 5 yards a carry, which is a bit above his CAREER average of 4.7. He did it behind an offense line built to run behind - they've been building that line for years. He did with a spectacular runner in the backfield with him, a runner who demands that the defense respect him. And he did it against a defense that is intentionally (for better or worse) built to stop the pass first and to just do as well as you can stopping the run. 

 

If the Bills had held the Ravens to 100 yards rushing, instead of 270, the Ravens STILL would be the leading rushing team in the league. The Bills rushing defense was gashed by one of the best rushing attacks the league has seen in recent memory. 

 

The point is that I don't expect any other teams to run against the Bills like that, and I expect the Bills defense to be better against the Ravens next time. 

 

Because the Ravens are the only team that presents that kind of running threat, I don't think it's time to declare that the sky is falling. 

 

If the Bills need a better run defense, week in and week out, then I when Milano returns I expect we'll see the Bills in more 4-3.  

Edited October 1 by Shaw66