The Autopsy and the Bright Side

[Beast]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

The terrible-

This defensive line once again against real good teams continues to be non existent, the bengals at home, the Chiefs countless times, the only player to come up big once was Baylon Specter. This is unacceptable from a former DC, how can this continue to be a problem? Where is Ed Oliver, Dajuan Jones is yet another bust along the DL, Groot was hardly noticeable, Epenesa is non existent. What is this defense? I don't want injury excuses, these guys never show up against teams like this and until it's rectified I don't think this team is ever making it to a SB.

Except they have showed up multiple times against the Chiefs in the regular season, Baltimore in the regular season and playoffs, Miami more times than I can count….

[machine gun kelly]

5 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Ravens had the 32nd ranked pass D going into this game. Minshew threw it all over them. I personally wouldn’t have waited until we were down 3 scores to start pushing the issue.

 

I was going to echo the same comments as they are ranked at the bottom in explosive plays.  Why we didn’t expose that weakness with the best deep threat QB in the league is unexplainable.  We could’ve put them back on their heels amd the outcome would be different.

 

Im so disgusted with their play last night and their strategy, I went to bed and refused to get in the board.  We’ll bounce back this week is my guess.

[CNYfan]

6 hours ago, Success said:

Pretty good summary.

 

We didn't tackle well, obviously.  That was disappointing. We've been more physical in the other games to this point, but we let the Ravens out-physical us by a mile.  I don't think we're as soft as we looked out there, but I have concerns now.

 

39 is a poor tackler and not very good in coverage.

[finn]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Unfortunately the game was lost way before that playcall which I agree is one of the worst I can remember

Is it possible that Allen audibled to that play? It might not be on Brady at all. Maybe it was Allen feeling cocky, reckless, rash, adolescent, and jackass-y. 

[GunnerBill]

I turned a Bills game off early for the first time since the Gailey era last night. It was 3.45am, I was knackered and the game had gone. So I missed the final 9 minutes or so but I saw all the scoring. I said in the GDT it was a perfect storm of: injuries, coaching naivety and known personnel issues. That is my take on the game so let me break it down.

 

Injuries

• I have to give the Baltimore coaching staff a ton of credit, they were excellent. It is one of the best run teams in the NFL (so are the Bills) they know what they are doing and they are buttoned up and professional. If John Harbaugh can win another Superbowl before he retires he would cement himself as a HoF coach. Criminally underrated IMO. 
• Their gameplan on offense was to go right after the second level of the Bills defense. In the first half they targeted the Bills secondary once (they play where Agholor prevented an INT). Everything else was designed to expose the Bills second level. Their run game was all about getting their big bodies to the second level and challenging the Bills linebackers to get off blocks. Their pass game was all about getting the linebackers moving laterally and exposing their lack of speed on the edge and then the odd play action shot behind them when they had drawn them out of the middle of the field. They didn't get away from it. They didn't do anything crazy. They just kept going after the second level. Excellent job Todd Monken. 
• I think for the first time last night against a team with the talent of Henry and Jackson and the speed of Hill you saw just how much is missing from the Bills defense at the moment. Spector, Williams, Lewis, Hamlin and Rapp. That is five guys at the heart of your defense who this time last year were backups. There were coaching missteps (more below) but they were just out-talented in that match up. 

Coaching naivety

• Joe Brady and Bobby Babich have rightly got a fair amount of credit for their starts as the Bills coordinators. But they struggled last night. 
• I'll start on defense. Obviously the Ravens hit the big run first play from scrimmage. That can happen. They executed well against the weakness I identified above and you have to give them credit. Instead, Babich panicked. We spent the next two drives entirely in 4-3 base with Nicholas Morrow playing as a strong side linebacker. I said it about him in pre-season - he is not an NFL talent at this point. I don't mean to be cruel. For an undrafted player he has had a good career, this is his eighth year in the league. That is commendable. But he was brutal for the Eagles last year and he was brutal last night. Not Athletic enough, not a good enough anticipator and just generally a weak spot. Watching Justice Hill zoom by him while he looked like wading in treacle was sad. Leslie Frazier used to be much criticised here for staying in nickel against the physical run teams like Tennessee and Baltimore but he would always hold by the philosophy that going from nickel to base meant taking off the field a player who is better than the one you are bringing in. I get it the gap between Lewis and Morrow isn't the gab between Taron and Klein. And Lewis did NOT play well last night missing two critical tackles that led to 1st downs. But at least he had the basic athleticism to have a shot. Staying in base for those drives really killed any chance we had of settling in on defense. 
• Second half Babich and McDermott came out with a different plan which was stop asking Williams and Spector to play linebacker and just send them to crash the line every play. It was a chips all in type of aggressive move and we got them off the field twice cheaply. Unfortunately what it always risks is when the Ravens did break that first line there was going to be a lot of yards there for them and after the turnover (coming onto it) the dam broke. At that stage I think Babich was sunk and what happened from there was not on him. His talent was more the issue than he was, but his naivety and panic cost us first half IMO.
• Onto offense. First thing to say is the lack of motions and shifts tonight seemed to give Josh fewer easy button throws. Some of that was no doubt the sound in the stadium and the Bills just wanting to be a bit more basic and stress their fundamentals, some of was likely "we know what the Ravens are in so the benefit is less" but at the same time it meant we didn't create those little schemed leverage opportunities we have for short completions and YAC in recent weeks. 
• Secondly I think what we are seeing with the Samuel in the backfield stuff is a lot of whiteboard plays. They look great when you draw them up, because you imagine there is a confusion on defense. But teams are not buying it. They know for the most part what the Bills are trying to do with it and it felt forced last night that he was trying to go to it. I do think it is hurt by the lack of threat the Bills have outside (more to come) because teams don't feel forced to stay in 2 high shells so if Samuel is in the backfield, fine, just make sure that is a DB responsibility rather than a linebacker one and if you need to commit a safety closer to the line to get that done, so be it! I think they got away from James Cook too soon as well because they were trying to force the cute stuff with Samuel in the backfield.
• And the trick play... ugh. The play call obviously didn't work and went disastrously wrong swinging the entire momentum of the game. But even had it worked I don't like it there. For the first time all game the Bills seemed to have the Ravens D backpedalling, Cook had just had three runs for 13 yards, it is 2nd and 7 at the Ravens 44. You are probably in 4 down territory as it is FG no man's land in any event. Either run him again and try and get to third and short or throw one of your quick hitters see of Shakir or Kincaid can get you into 3rd and short or break one for a first down. Going for a trick ply there seemed unnecessary, it was naive and the Ravens were ready for it. Your best players are Allen and Cook. Taking it out of their hands to put in Curtis Samuel's was dumb. 

Personnel issues

• I'll start with the easy one - Tyler Bass is a problem. The game was probably gone already when he missed that FG but it was the final nail in the coffin. If he makes it and the Bills get a stop, who knows. Once he missed the Ravens were pretty much home and hosed. I know why they don't want to make the move but the time is coming where they have to.
• Wide receiver is also a problem. Shakir isn't going to make magic every time you throw him the ball. Sometimes he will get just what's there for him as he did mostly last night. That is fine, unless him getting more than what is there is the entire basis for your offense as it feels like it has been to an extent. Keon had a couple of nice backshoulder catches and that was good to see. But it's a tough way to win in the NFL and you see with his drop the margin of error you are working within. He is still obviously a work in progress but I remain where I was on the start with him. He may develop into a better version of Gabe Davis. That is still no more than a #2 receiver. 
• The Bills just do not threaten outside. Collinsworth said about 6 minutes into the game that Roquan Smith had told him their game plan was keep a lid on the middle of the field and force the Bills to win outside. And they just can't. I thought we might get here next week, we got here a week early. But I say it until I'm blue in the face eventually in this league in high leverage situations you are going to have to win outside or at least threaten to win outside. Or else it allows the defense to dictate to you. The Bills have the Quarterback to do it. They don't have the receiving talent to do it. Running Ty Johnson out as a receiver split wide on 3rd and 11 tells you what you need to know about how Brady feels about his receivers ability to win in those situations. 
• People rightly ask why couldn't we expose the Ravens weak pass defense (by the numbers through the first three weeks) well my answer to that is it wasn't a Joe Brady problem. Or a Josh Allen problem. It's a Brandon Beane problem. Let's see where we are at the deadline record wise. But I suspect he will have to try and make a deal for someone. Hollins, MVS, Samuel and Coleman isn't going to be good enough outside when you need to show you can win there. The Ravens were dead right with their game plan. Make the Bills win outside. They proved last night that when a good team dares them to do that they are in trouble. 
• Finally safety. The weakest spot on the team. We knew it going into the year. But two guys in Rapp and Edwards who have spent their recent past as backups plus Hamlin and Lewis who we have seen enough of in Buffalo to KNOW they are backup level players was never going to stand up to scrutiny. Sure, they were unlucky with the Bishop injury. He is still getting up to speed as a result. But at the moment they don't have a starting level NFL player there and the first game where they had to bring a guy down into the box more hey presto it shows up big time. Predictable.

Edited September 30 by GunnerBill

[Niagara Dude]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

Welp, that sucked.

 

Let's start with the bad and end on a high-note with the good

 

The Bad

 

Defensively:

 

Safeties took bad angles and looked tentative, especially Hamlin. Rapp got hurt doing his human missile impression

 

LB's were attacked relentlessly until the second half when I think McD/Babich adjusted their assignments

 

Rasul Douglas was kind of a less than bright spot, Cam Lewis was on the receiving end of some bad whiffs as well

 

Next to zero pass rush in the first half and poor play recognition all around

 

Offensively:

 

Samuel looks like a complete zero of a signing (which sucks because I thought he would be pretty good reunited with Brady) -every play where he is in the backfield is a play where blitz pickup is never a factor

 

OL and pass pro was horrible.  The misdirection on disguised blitzes chewed them up. Everyone kinda was bad, but dishonorable mention goes to Torrence who clearly has some bad tendencies on tape that teams will continue to relentlessly attack.

 

I have said it once and I will say it again. James Cook is one of our best offensive players. Getting away from him entirely is a mistake.  I know folks have been really high on Ray Davis, but I am absolutely sick of the 1st down James Cook run for 7 yards and then taking him off for Ray Davis to get -1 on the next play. Let James Cook, for real.

 

My personal distaste for this WR group - I have to mention this but I will keep it brief. Teams that are comfortable putting CB1 on Shakir and playing close to the line of scrimmage are gonna be our kryptonite and the Ravens just showed the entire league how to do it. Mack and MVS are non-factors when we are in passing situations. Teams will feel very comfortable with a S or CB3 on them and dare them to make a play. We saw that in full force all game once we got behind. We are making Josh and co. play 10 on 10 or 9 on 9 because these guys just don't have the juice.

 

The call.  We all know the call. One of the worst calls I have ever seen and was DOA.  With the OL barely able to give Allen a second on a good day, running a pseudo-wild cat with Samuel for the first time on the year when all eyes will be on Allen is really bad. We didn't even set it up earlier in the year.  Bad bad bad bad. Will probably be the worst call of Brady's career

 

The offense in general.  We were a miracle Josh Allen throw away from scoring 3 points total.  PU.

 

The Bright Spots:

 

Defensively:

 

Great second half adjustments on defense, came out flying and gave us a chance to stay in the game

 

Bishop didn't stand out in a negative way when forced to come in

 

Health - we are riding out the clock on TJ and TB coming back.  Hopefully they are both back this week or the next, and I think this is the worst defensive game we will see this year.

 

Offensively:

 

Keon Coleman is a player. He was not my choice in the draft, but he had his best game as a pro.  Bad drop, but made two EXCELLENT catches against tight coverage when we needed it. I have concerns about making a living on those plays, but I am more convinced that he will be a star in this league sooner rather than later. I wish we had 4 of him.

 

Cook is still a weapon. Again, wish we used him more but I thought the Ravens front would neutralize him. He showed out, he just needs the ball more.

 

Anyway, that's what I got.

 

I was a bad night,  the good is that Allen was not seriously hurt on that dumb call that had him lined uo as a receiver.  The bad is the Bills may have the worse pair of safeties in the NFL.  Rapp should never have been resigned and Hamlin is barely backup material ,  a massive down grade.  I think our receiver group is not great but also not terrible like our safety position.

[Orlando Buffalo]

5 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

I was a bad night,  the good is that Allen was not seriously hurt on that dumb call that had him lined uo as a receiver.  The bad is the Bills may have the worse pair of safeties in the NFL.  Rapp should never have been resigned and Hamlin is barely backup material ,  a massive down grade.  I think our receiver group is not great but also not terrible like our safety position.

I don't know who to blame for the issues on our backend of the defense but no one stepped up for sure. I am looking at the silver lining that the receiver looked better as game went on and this was first game where the DBs were good at being aggressive. If we learn from it I am sticking with my 12-5 record.

[Sweats]

From what i did watch, the play calling was horrible, the D was playing scared, and we were out coached again......not surprisingly, this is the exact same way we play every time we get a serious beatdown.

 

We're not fooling anyone......we are the best team in the league when we are beating up on bad teams and everything is questioned when we stumble.

I'm not worried, we were never going to win every game.

We learn from this and we move on.

[colin]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I dunno

 

We gave up almost 8 yards/play 

 

I don't see us ever winning that game tbh

We gave up what to KC in the playoffs, 7.7?

 

Exact same thing.  Lack of talent in the gut and a scheme that gives good teams and ez mode win.  There is never a question of what will the bills do on d, its always the same and the blueprint is etched in stone.

[shane nelson]

The Bad:  While there were many, my key take away; time to go Bass Fishing

The Good:  Its just one game, move on!

[Sweats]

7 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Ravens had the 32nd ranked pass D going into this game. Minshew threw it all over them. I personally wouldn’t have waited until we were down 3 scores to start pushing the issue.

 

 

 

 

Exactly.

 

Maybe McD didn't get the memo.

[f0neguy]

I’m thinking with Rapp suffering a concussion Bishop steps in as the starter and never looks back.

 

In essence, Rapp was “Wally Pipped” last night…

[27yankees]

They were flat, not prepared. 

[Sweats]

3 minutes ago, 27yankees said:

They were flat, not prepared. 

 

 

 

 

......and that's on coaching

[VaMilBill]

9 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Hamlin is a bad safety, once the strength of the defense is now our biggest weakness 

I wouldn’t say bad. But he ain’t Hyde or Poyer in their primes. He is tentative and doesn’t fly downhill. Nor is he fast. He also doesn’t have instincts. 
 

Hes a replacement level player. 

[Sweats]

Just now, VaMilBill said:

I wouldn’t say bad. But he ain’t Hyde or Poyer in their primes. He is tentative and doesn’t fly downhill. Nor is he fast. He also doesn’t have instincts. 
 

Hes a replacement level player. 

 

 

 

He's a 100% "feel good" story and just the type of player that this franchise loves, regardless of skill.

[Jester]

9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

The Henry TD run.  
 

No pass rush bc we were horrified of Henry.  
 

Punting on 4th and 2 at mid field.  
 

Brady going full clown show with the play call.  - This game sucked but this line right here made me giggle.  😂
 

Bass misses again.  
 

We looked unprepared for their pass rush/blitz schemes.  

 

On to the next. 

 

[FireChans]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Good recap, and I pretty much agree with most of this. 
 

Couple minor notes:  I never liked the MVS signing and was praying someone would bump him off the roster.  So I don’t disagree he’s not bringing a lot to the table other than running fast in a straight line.  To his credit, Allen has missed him on 2 deep shots he was open earlier this season, but honestly I trust him to make the catch about as much as I trust Bass to make 50 yard FG.
 

But Hollins has value to this team still.  He’s supposed to be our 6th target, so he was never meant to be a high target volume guy.  Where I think the problem is really with Samuel being a non factor.  When we need to press the ball downfield it shouldn’t be Hollins we need to depend on.  It should be Coleman, Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel along with our backs that we look to in those moments.  
 

But like you said, for what ever reason Samuel has been a ghost and it feels more like they don’t know what to do with him.  Whatever they are doing isn’t working, and they need to get him going and get Mack off the field in those more pass heavy moments.  Or of if they can’t, then they need to get Knox more involved as a pass catcher run more 12 personnel.  
 

The only area I disagree with is Shakir.  Teams are not going to be able to cheat their CB1 short on Shakir if Coleman keeps building on this game, and I think he will.  

Coleman was close to a massive night tonight.  When Allen got sacked because O’Cyrus got torched, Coleman toasted his one on one on the outside and was wide open deep for a TD with an accurate pass from Allen had he not had the Ravens DL in his face of the snap.  Then of course the next drive was the one he dropped which would have been another big play.  
 

Seeing Josh and Brady come back to him and trust him to make those great plays down field after was awesome.  And I really think that this may have been a mini coming out party for him in terms of his involvement moving forward.  

You are right. It's not a Mack Hollins problem. It's a room problem.

 

We were in a "need to pass" situation from about the third drive on.

 

Do you know who played the second most snaps at WR?

 

It was Mack Hollins.

 

Do you know who had the second most targets on the team?

 

Mack Hollins.

 

Like you said, if Mack was just a handful of snaps guy or a running down guy, he's got value.

 

He is negative value the more he plays and the more he is targeted. And somehow he is our third best WR.

 

[Toledo Bill]

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I agree the DL was terrible … not for the first time 

Espenesa was never any good. Oliver has disappeared. Jones, though, was a force when not injured last year… what has happened to him?

[DapperCam]

24 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

I wouldn’t say bad. But he ain’t Hyde or Poyer in their primes. He is tentative and doesn’t fly downhill. Nor is he fast. He also doesn’t have instincts. 
 

Hes a replacement level player. 

He’s a below replacement level player. Mostly due to his speed. Guy is as slow as molasses out there. I think the plan was the have Bishop start, but he got injured.