The Autopsy and the Bright Side

[Ramza86]

Felt like the Ravens were playing for their season. They played about as good as they could play. Knocked us tf out.

 

Hope we can right that ship for next week

[TBBills Fan]

Our losses in defense showed. Brady and the coaches laid an egg. The offense was generally sloppy. 

 

Bad night.  We are still here and alive. We are 3-1. 

 

Adversity builds character. Let's see the character of this team next week.  

 

 

[Billever76]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

The terrible-

This defensive line once again against real good teams continues to be non existent, the bengals at home, the Chiefs countless times, the only player to come up big once was Baylon Specter. This is unacceptable from a former DC, how can this continue to be a problem? Where is Ed Oliver, Dajuan Jones is yet another bust along the DL, Groot was hardly noticeable, Epenesa is non existent. What is this defense? I don't want injury excuses, these guys never show up against teams like this and until it's rectified I don't think this team is ever making it to a SB.

McDermott is the problem and has been the problem....he had no answers or adjustments to Henry and Lamar chewing threw his soft nickel defense over and over again

[BuffaloBill]

To me the only bright spots are:

 

1) The Bills will have an opportunity to learn from this - early in the year.

2) Hopefully Brady starts calling plays a little differently when facing man coverage.  As best as I could tell the Ravens did not play zone at all.

3) Both Babich and Brady learn from the experience.

 

Hopefully Josh came out healthy.

[Toledo Bill]

37 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

Our losses in defense showed. Brady and the coaches laid an egg. The offense was generally sloppy. 

 

Bad night.  We are still here and alive. We are 3-1. 

 

Adversity builds character. Let's see the character of this team next week.  

 

 

You have to question their character when they get pushed around like they did last night. Brings back memories from past years when they were a soft team.

I thought they were beyond that but obviously are not.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

43 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

McDermott is the problem and has been the problem....he had no answers or adjustments to Henry and Lamar chewing threw his soft nickel defense over and over again

 

I didn't want to go here but I'm starting to think this is the correct answer. 

[TBBills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Toledo Bill said:

You have to question their character when they get pushed around like they did last night. Brings back memories from past years when they were a soft team.

I thought they were beyond that but obviously are not.

It is a valid question. But one week is one week.  We made the jags look much worse than they are last week. 

 

What they do and how they rebound will be telling

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

You are right. It's not a Mack Hollins problem. It's a room problem.

 

We were in a "need to pass" situation from about the third drive on.

 

Do you know who played the second most snaps at WR?

 

It was Mack Hollins.

 

Do you know who had the second most targets on the team?

 

Mack Hollins.

 

Like you said, if Mack was just a handful of snaps guy or a running down guy, he's got value.

 

He is negative value the more he plays and the more he is targeted. And somehow he is our third best WR.

 

I don’t really disagree with this, although I think Mack has more value than just a handful of snaps given how much he’s affected the offense (almost every TD and many of our big runs and YAC plays)…BUT that value is when the run game and short YAC game is flowing.  
 

In a situation where you are pushing the uptempo offense because you haven’t gotten the other aspects going that we saw roll so easily first 3 weeks, it really should be Samuel or even Knox out there more.  
 

We have these 2 TE’s and Ravens have been weak defending the pass up the middle, but I don’t recall seeing much 12 personnel out there this week and yet we drafted Kincaid after extending Knox just for that purpose.  
 

I love that Brady is using these quick strike screens, been missing from our offense for years.  But he also over used it and over relied on it this week.  Maybe it was a panic move to try and counter how bad we were getting abused up front, I don’t know.  But we didn’t trade up for Kincaid to throw TE screens to him a bunch of times.  And we are paying Knox a lot to barely use him.  This is a guy who had 15 TDs in 2021 and 2022 despite low usage.  

Brady has been great the three weeks coming in, so not going to condemn him after a week where the whole team just was flat and out muscled on both sides of the board.  But I do hope this is a learning experience and he can show he can adjust moving forward.  And that means more Coleman, more Kincaid away from the LOS, and getting Samuel involved outside just some gadget plays or screens. 
 

And one last note:  While I am very high on Davis, they need to stop switching off Cook so much.  RBs need carries to get in rhythm.  Expecting Davis to just come in for a random carry on 2nd down is both taking Cook away from getting into a rhythm and asking a rookie to come in cold and succeed on the next play.  ESPECIALLY in a game like this where you’re struggling to establish the ground game.  Let Cook get Cooking.  If Cook gets 8 yards on first down let him pickup the first down if you are going to run it again or leave him in and run a play action or read option.  

Edited September 30 by Alphadawg7

[GaryPinC]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I turned a Bills game off early for the first time since the Gailey era last night. It was 3.45am, I was knackered and the game had gone. So I missed the final 9 minutes or so but I saw all the scoring. I said in the GDT it was a perfect storm of: injuries, coaching naivety and known personnel issues. That is my take on the game so let me break it down.

 

Injuries

• I have to give the Baltimore coaching staff a ton of credit, they were excellent. It is one of the best run teams in the NFL (so are the Bills) they know what they are doing and they are buttoned up and professional. If John Harbaugh can win another Superbowl before he retires he would cement himself as a HoF coach. Criminally underrated IMO. 
• Their gameplan on offense was to go right after the second level of the Bills defense. In the first half they targeted the Bills secondary once (they play where Agholor prevented an INT). Everything else was designed to expose the Bills second level. Their run game was all about getting their big bodies to the second level and challenging the Bills linebackers to get off blocks. Their pass game was all about getting the linebackers moving laterally and exposing their lack of speed on the edge and then the odd play action shot behind them when they had drawn them out of the middle of the field. They didn't get away from it. They didn't do anything crazy. They just kept going after the second level. Excellent job Todd Monken. 
• I think for the first time last night against a team with the talent of Henry and Jackson and the speed of Hill you saw just how much is missing from the Bills defense at the moment. Spector, Williams, Lewis, Hamlin and Rapp. That is five guys at the heart of your defense who this time last year were backups. There were coaching missteps (more below) but they were just out-talented in that match up. 

Coaching naivety

• Joe Brady and Bobby Babich have rightly got a fair amount of credit for their starts as the Bills coordinators. But they struggled last night. 
• I'll start on defense. Obviously the Ravens hit the big run first play from scrimmage. That can happen. They executed well against the weakness I identified above and you have to give them credit. Instead, Babich panicked. We spent the next two drives entirely in 4-3 base with Nicholas Morrow playing as a strong side linebacker. I said it about him in pre-season - he is not an NFL talent at this point. I don't mean to be cruel. For an undrafted player he has had a good career, this is his eighth year in the league. That is commendable. But he was brutal for the Eagles last year and he was brutal last night. Not Athletic enough, not a good enough anticipator and just generally a weak spot. Watching Justice Hill zoom by him while he looked like wading in treacle was sad. Leslie Frazier used to be much criticised here for staying in nickel against the physical run teams like Tennessee and Baltimore but he would always hold by the philosophy that going from nickel to base meant taking off the field a player who is better than the one you are bringing in. I get it the gap between Lewis and Morrow isn't the gab between Taron and Klein. And Lewis did NOT play well last night missing two critical tackles that led to 1st downs. But at least he had the basic athleticism to have a shot. Staying in base for those drives really killed any chance we had of settling in on defense. 
• Second half Babich and McDermott came out with a different plan which was stop asking Williams and Spector to play linebacker and just send them to crash the line every play. It was a chips all in type of aggressive move and we got them off the field twice cheaply. Unfortunately what it always risks is when the Ravens did break that first line there was going to be a lot of yards there for them and after the turnover (coming onto it) the dam broke. At that stage I think Babich was sunk and what happened from there was not on him. His talent was more the issue than he was, but his naivety and panic cost us first half IMO.
• Onto offense. First thing to say is the lack of motions and shifts tonight seemed to give Josh fewer easy button throws. Some of that was no doubt the sound in the stadium and the Bills just wanting to be a bit more basic and stress their fundamentals, some of was likely "we know what the Ravens are in so the benefit is less" but at the same time it meant we didn't create those little schemed leverage opportunities we have for short completions and YAC in recent weeks. 
• Secondly I think what we are seeing with the Samuel in the backfield stuff is a lot of whiteboard plays. They look great when you draw them up, because you imagine there is a confusion on defense. But teams are not buying it. They know for the most part what the Bills are trying to do with it and it felt forced last night that he was trying to go to it. I do think it is hurt by the lack of threat the Bills have outside (more to come) because teams don't feel forced to stay in 2 high shells so if Samuel is in the backfield, fine, just make sure that is a DB responsibility rather than a linebacker one and if you need to commit a safety closer to the line to get that done, so be it! I think they got away from James Cook too soon as well because they were trying to force the cute stuff with Samuel in the backfield.
• And the trick play... ugh. The play call obviously didn't work and went disastrously wrong swinging the entire momentum of the game. But even had it worked I don't like it there. For the first time all game the Bills seemed to have the Ravens D backpedalling, Cook had just had three runs for 13 yards, it is 2nd and 7 at the Ravens 44. You are probably in 4 down territory as it is FG no man's land in any event. Either run him again and try and get to third and short or throw one of your quick hitters see of Shakir or Kincaid can get you into 3rd and short or break one for a first down. Going for a trick ply there seemed unnecessary, it was naive and the Ravens were ready for it. Your best players are Allen and Cook. Taking it out of their hands to put in Curtis Samuel's was dumb. 

Personnel issues

• I'll start with the easy one - Tyler Bass is a problem. The game was probably gone already when he missed that FG but it was the final nail in the coffin. If he makes it and the Bills get a stop, who knows. Once he missed the Ravens were pretty much home and hosed. I know why they don't want to make the move but the time is coming where they have to.
• Wide receiver is also a problem. Shakir isn't going to make magic every time you throw him the ball. Sometimes he will get just what's there for him as he did mostly last night. That is fine, unless him getting more than what is there is the entire basis for your offense as it feels like it has been to an extent. Keon had a couple of nice backshoulder catches and that was good to see. But it's a tough way to win in the NFL and you see with his drop the margin of error you are working within. He is still obviously a work in progress but I remain where I was on the start with him. He may develop into a better version of Gabe Davis. That is still no more than a #2 receiver. 
• The Bills just do not threaten outside. Collinsworth said about 6 minutes into the game that Roquan Smith had told him their game plan was keep a lid on the middle of the field and force the Bills to win outside. And they just can't. I thought we might get here next week, we got here a week early. But I say it until I'm blue in the face eventually in this league in high leverage situations you are going to have to win outside or at least threaten to win outside. Or else it allows the defense to dictate to you. The Bills have the Quarterback to do it. They don't have the receiving talent to do it. Running Ty Johnson out as a receiver split wide on 3rd and 11 tells you what you need to know about how Brady feels about his receivers ability to win in those situations. 
• People rightly ask why couldn't we expose the Ravens weak pass defense (by the numbers through the first three weeks) well my answer to that is it wasn't a Joe Brady problem. Or a Josh Allen problem. It's a Brandon Beane problem. Let's see where we are at the deadline record wise. But I suspect he will have to try and make a deal for someone. Hollins, MVS, Samuel and Coleman isn't going to be good enough outside when you need to show you can win there. The Ravens were dead right with their game plan. Make the Bills win outside. They proved last night that when a good team dares them to do that they are in trouble. 
• Finally safety. The weakest spot on the team. We knew it going into the year. But two guys in Rapp and Edwards who have spent their recent past as backups plus Hamlin and Lewis who we have seen enough of in Buffalo to KNOW they are backup level players was never going to stand up to scrutiny. Sure, they were unlucky with the Bishop injury. He is still getting up to speed as a result. But at the moment they don't have a starting level NFL player there and the first game where they had to bring a guy down into the box more hey presto it shows up big time. Predictable.

Great thoughts and summary, thanks.  I definitely appreciate and agree with your opinion about winning the sideline, it's right on.  That will be for Keon Coleman and he started to show signs of it.

 

My biggest problem with last night was our D-line.  Way too much money tied up not to show out better in an important game, but it is early.

The rest of it is growing pains and catching Baltimore really ready to rumble after a slow season start.   

 

Last year KC was not a juggernaut until it mattered the most.  Given the salary structure and free agency, I feel like even strong contenders have to remake their roster almost every year in certain areas, this year KC is struggling with their left tackle right now.

 

So for the Bills, safety and receiver are their two biggest issues with LB close behind.  But we need to develop our safeties and receivers at max speed and are we?

 

I saw after the Keon drop a mixture of anger, confusion, and thoughtfulness on his face.  He came back and made some plays the second half, but we need to target him every game with plays to help him along.  Same with Samuel, we don't seem sure of his role but we need to figure it out quickly.

 

One of the biggest problems with our safeties is a general lack of anticipation.  Cole's anticipation jumps off the screen at me.  He needs to be in there ASAP to set that example and develop his partner also, veterans be damned.

 

I'm ok dropping games like this if it propels us forward.  Peaking during the playoffs is the only thing that matters and I hope McD pushes development at max speed in those critical areas right now.  I also wish he would change his approach to our D-line, lol.

 

 

  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Great thoughts and summary, thanks.  I definitely appreciate and agree with your opinion about winning the sideline, it's right on.  That will be for Keon Coleman and he started to show signs of it.

 

My biggest problem with last night was our D-line.  Way too much money tied up not to show out better in an important game, but it is early.

The rest of it is growing pains and catching Baltimore really ready to rumble after a slow season start.   

 

Last year KC was not a juggernaut until it mattered the most.  Given the salary structure and free agency, I feel like even strong contenders have to remake their roster almost every year in certain areas, this year KC is struggling with their left tackle right now.

 

So for the Bills, safety and receiver are their two biggest issues with LB close behind.  But we need to develop our safeties and receivers at max speed and are we?

 

I saw after the Keon drop a mixture of anger, confusion, and thoughtfulness on his face.  He came back and made some plays the second half, but we need to target him every game with plays to help him along.  Same with Samuel, we don't seem sure of his role but we need to figure it out quickly.

 

One of the biggest problems with our safeties is a general lack of anticipation.  Cole's anticipation jumps off the screen at me.  He needs to be in there ASAP to set that example and develop his partner also, veterans be damned.

 

I'm ok dropping games like this if it propels us forward.  Peaking during the playoffs is the only thing that matters and I hope McD pushes development at max speed in those critical areas right now.  I also wish he would change his approach to our D-line, lol.

 

 

  

Did not feel like a 'propel us forward' kind of loss

 

More like a they are who we thought they were loss tbh

[GaryPinC]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Did not feel like a 'propel us forward' kind of loss

 

More like a they are who we thought they were loss tbh

That's up to the coaches and team.  We flat out weren't ready to play them.

[Man with No Name]

11 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I just listened to Josh's presser. Much less depressed than he usually is after a bad loss. Said he's glad it happened early in the season so they ca correct things. I like that he isn't doing his usual "I suck" routine

3-0 start gives the freedom to feel like that after a loss. I had the same feeling during and after the game. Whereas during the philly game last year, i was smashing my phone. Being in a desperate spot really messes with the mentality. 

 

This was a good time to take a lump and learn a few things

[Bigantall]

The only good thing the defense did last night was stoping Henry from getting two hundred yards of rushing, they wanted badly for him to have something else to rub in our face.

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Did not feel like a 'propel us forward' kind of loss

 

More like a they are who we thought they were loss tbh

Well that’s the beauty of not having high expectations then.  Especially when next year we have lots of extra draft capital once we aren’t paying Diggs $31m to not be here and we can get out of Vons deal.  

We can move around the draft if we choose, or if we stay put and make our picks early, I would expect WR, LB, and S to all be in play over our first and 2 second round picks.

Watching the Niners every week with my wife has made Fred Warner maybe my favorite non Bills player.  And I’m really hoping we go get a LB in FA or draft that isn’t undersized and can be a force.  And I love Milano and Bernard, but they keep getting hurt and it cost us the KC game last year to end our season and it was again costly yesterday not having them.  And quite frankly I don’t know how much better they would have even fared against Henry anyway.  

Edited September 30 by Alphadawg7

[Robert Paulson]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Bright Spots:

 

1) DeWayne Carter made some great plays on the goal line stand.

 

2) I think we will see our offensive scheme morph some now. It has to expand beyond the short stuff, and I think it will now.

I was expecting  a play action bomb to MVS at least once tonight- but with the pass rush clicking I would see why not.

 

More disappointed  there  were no draw plays or screens called  to slow down the pass rush. Apparently  we have poorly designed trick plays in the play book but no screens or draws.

[Bigantall]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Bright Spots:

 

1) DeWayne Carter made some great plays on the goal line stand.

 

2) I think we will see our offensive scheme morph some now. It has to expand beyond the short stuff, and I think it will now.

we haven't gotten anything from Smoot  and Austin Johnson 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well that’s the beauty of not having high expectations then.  Especially when next year we have lots of extra draft capital once we aren’t paying Diggs $31m to not be here and we can get out of Vons deal.  

We can move around the draft if we choose, or if we stay put and make our picks early, I would expect WR, LB, and S to all be in play over our first and 2 second round picks.

Watching the Niners every week with my wife has made Fred Warner maybe my favorite non Bills player.  And I’m really hoping we go get a LB in FA or draft that isn’t undersized and can be a force.  And I love Milano and Bernard, but they keep getting hurt and it cost us the KC game last year to end our season and it was again costly yesterday not having them.  And quite frankly I don’t know how much better they would have even fared against Henry anyway.  

It's kind of funny we expect WR and S to be in play over first and second round picks when we just drafted WR and S one and two

[Bigantall]

12 hours ago, Roundybout said:

The good: 

 

Coleman, drop aside, was very good. Good body control on those sideline throws. 
 

Shakir ruled 

 

The meh:

 

Defensive line 

 

The bad:

 

Cam Lewis is not worth a roster spot 

 

Torrence is becoming a real concern out there 

 

I’m at the end of the line with Bass-O-Matic, the misses are so egregious that it’s not defensible anymore.

I have said that all year and last year Cam Lewis should not have a roster spot if you see he misses a lot of tackles the guy has his head down when trying to make tackles

12 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I have the same concern at WR as you do and was hoping it wouldn’t come to this.  But as pressures as Josh was today there were also times when no one was open downfield and this is a major concern to me.  
 

Shakir is a good receiver but outside of him, you have a bunch of JAGs at WR.  Coleman is a rookie so I’ll give him a pass.  But the Bills are getting nothing from Samuel, MVS or Hollins at WR.  
 

The lack of overall talent at WR bit them in the ass today and I worry it becomes a trend this year

the bills have given the rest of the nfl the playbook on attacking us

[What a Tuel]

8 minutes ago, Bigantall said:

we haven't gotten anything from Smoot  and Austin Johnson 

 

Smoot really pissed me off last night. cost us a 15 yard penalty on one play unnecessarily kneeing a guy in the face. 

 

Then on the very next play, it looks like he was trying to twist Lamar's ankle. 

 

We would be calling him dirty if that was a Raven.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's kind of funny we expect WR and S to be in play over first and second round picks when we just drafted WR and S one and two

Well we needed to replace 2 safeties and will need another WR next year as 2 of our guys are on 1 year deals and only here because we have $31m in dead cap going to a WR playing on another team.

 

It’s not like we need to draft a WR and S to replace the ones we just took.