Matt Harmon: "Khalil Shakir is the perfect WR for the modern NFL"

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great call!

I was actually just wondering today why we haven't seen more from Samuel, particularly considering what they're paying him. He's been the most invisible receiver on the roster from a production standpoint. 

I had totally forgotten about the turf toe thing. I wonder if that's partially what's behind Samuel's lack of production thus far.

 

He has by far the fewest snaps on the roster at WR.  There also isn't anyone over 70% on the roster.  

[Augie]

1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

 

It's the #1 killer of cats....

 

Just ahead of @Gugny? 

 

😂 

[machine gun kelly]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great call!

I was actually just wondering today why we haven't seen more from Samuel, particularly considering what they're paying him. He's been the most invisible receiver on the roster from a production standpoint. 

I had totally forgotten about the turf toe thing. I wonder if that's partially what's behind Samuel's lack of production thus far.

Unlike others I have no inside knowledge, just an educated guess especially because as you point out, it’s an injury that just doesn’t go away easily.

[eball]

I think it's great that we have an OC in Brady who has been preaching this concept of every receiver playing every position since minicamp.

 

[RoscoeParrish]

53 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Shakir's "efficiency" as you state by only measuring YPC ranking is myopic imo.  That is like saying Josh Allen is having an off year because his yards passed per game is so low.  He is arguably having his best year but to WIN, he doesn't have to throw for 400 yards, a healthy maturation of Allen and the overall offense.  Just win.

 

Same with Shakir, he might not build up incredible stats as the Bills have 1)  yet to need Allens long ball AND 2) his distribution to all receivers has been extraordinary.

So yards passed per game is a volume stat. 
 

if you don’t pass a lot, you won’t have a lot of yards.

 

YPC and yards per target doesn’t care if you had one catch or 10 catches. Thats why it’s an efficiency stat. 
 

Shakir’s efficiency was extraordinary last year on low volume. His volume has gone up and his efficiency has dropped a bit, but is still excellent.

I really don’t agree with your description of “myopic” or analogy at all, it doesn’t make sense to me. 

[uninja]

55 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Unlike others I have no inside knowledge, just an educated guess especially because as you point out, it’s an injury that just doesn’t go away easily.

I also just wonder how much of the playbook they’re really showing atm. Feels like there’s really only a handful of plays/concepts and they just keep spamming them until teams figure out how to stop it.

[folz]

Here's what I like the most about Shakir, along with his YAC ability and versatility:

 

Catch Percentages:

2023: 87%

2024: 100%

 

 

 

 

Edited September 26 by folz

[RoyBatty is alive]

10 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

So yards passed per game is a volume stat. 
 

if you don’t pass a lot, you won’t have a lot of yards.

 

YPC and yards per target doesn’t care if you had one catch or 10 catches. Thats why it’s an efficiency stat. 
 

Shakir’s efficiency was extraordinary last year on low volume. His volume has gone up and his efficiency has dropped a bit, but is still excellent.

I really don’t agree with your description of “myopic” or analogy at all, it doesn’t make sense to me. 

Yes yards passed per game is a stat.

 

And I agree, you dont pass a lot you dont get a lot of yards, that was my point.  

 

I also said we aren't so dependent on Allen's long ball, more short passes which is very logical Sahakir's YPC would decrease, as I said YPC solely as a stat is very myopic.    The Bills have not been airing it out as they have been in years past, higher efficiency shorter passes.  Of course Shakirs YPC is going to decrease.  So yes in that regard saying His "efficiency" has dropped because of shorrter YPC is , imo , myopic.  Totally new offense this year, comparing apples to oranges. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

That's REALLY gonna trigger @BADOLBILZ

 

You guys think I'M negative? lol

 

 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yes yards passed per game is a stat.

 

And I agree, you dont pass a lot you dont get a lot of yards, that was my point.  

 

I also said we aren't so dependent on Allen's long ball, more short passes which is very logical Sahakir's YPC would decrease, as I said YPC solely as a stat is very myopic.    The Bills have not been airing it out as they have been in years past, higher efficiency shorter passes.  Of course Shakirs YPC is going to decrease.  So yes in that regard saying His "efficiency" has dropped because of shorrter YPC is , imo , myopic.  Totally new offense this year, comparing apples to oranges. 

there can be lots of reasons that his efficiency has dropped. It can be due to increased volume, it can be due to shorter passes or offensive role.

 

But the fact remains the efficiency of Shakir last year to this year has dropped.

 

Do you believe there is no way to evaluate WR efficiency in the NFL? That’s a different discussion unfortunately. The poster I was responding to directly stated “Shakir’s efficiency.” 
 

I used the best metrics we have available to measure that. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, Andrew Son said:

Uh Oh, look out Harmon, @BADOLBILZ is about to be all up in your DM's

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

15 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

 

And yet, here you are.

 

Fascinating.

 

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

For what it’s worth, Shakir’s efficiency has dropped. 
 

He went from ~16 YPC to 12.

 

he was #1 in the NFL in 2023 in yards per target.

 

He’s down to 13th which is still quite excellent.

 

IMO, increased target share almost  always decreases efficiency.

 

It’s sort of like basketball. Some guys can shoot 40% from 3 when they take 2-3 shots per game.

 

When they start taking eight 3’s a game, most players drop into the 30s. 
 

Shakir has done very well with his numbers and continues to get better, but a decrease in efficiency doesn’t necessarily make him a worse player. Jmo.

Don’t like the basketball analogy because it’s situation dependent.  The shooter innthose 3-3 3 pt attempts could be wide open 3s from thr top part of the key while if he’s taking 1+ many of those others therr are dealing with adjusting shots due to uncommon pressure or attempted blocks

 

similarly in catches….types of routes matter and situation matters like being forced.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Don’t like the basketball analogy because it’s situation dependent.  The shooter innthose 3-3 3 pt attempts could be wide open 3s from thr top part of the key while if he’s taking 1+ many of those others therr are dealing with adjusting shots due to uncommon pressure or attempted blocks

 

similarly in catches….types of routes matter and situation matters like being forced.

 

Exactly.  An "efficiency stat" can be viewed in all kinds of ways.  Shakir hasn't missed a target.  That's pretty efficient.

Last year Shakir had a Receiving Success Rate of 73.3% which was very good.  So far this year it's 78.6%.

 

Josh needs to keep spreading the ball around but it's clear that Shakir is tops in his choices of spreads.

 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

So yards passed per game is a volume stat. 
 

if you don’t pass a lot, you won’t have a lot of yards.

 

YPC and yards per target doesn’t care if you had one catch or 10 catches. Thats why it’s an efficiency stat. 
 

Shakir’s efficiency was extraordinary last year on low volume. His volume has gone up and his efficiency has dropped a bit, but is still excellent.

I really don’t agree with your description of “myopic” or analogy at all, it doesn’t make sense to me. 

The depth of the route you ran... And how you are being used is a big factor to yards per Target 

 

He was a mid field stretcher last year... Running routes 12 15 18 yd downfield 

 

This year he's running routes closer to the line of scrimmage.. he's running shorter ins and screens and hitches which will pull that average down

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Turf toe is a very lingering injury that just doesn't go away easily 

 

Deion Sanders had severe turf toe which led to other complications and he had to amputate his big toe

 

Too bad no turf tounge.

[RoscoeParrish]

12 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Don’t like the basketball analogy because it’s situation dependent.  The shooter innthose 3-3 3 pt attempts could be wide open 3s from thr top part of the key while if he’s taking 1+ many of those others therr are dealing with adjusting shots due to uncommon pressure or attempted blocks

 

similarly in catches….types of routes matter and situation matters like being forced.

100%.
 

A contested 3 pt shot who is taking 8 a game is going to be less efficient than a wide open shooter taking 2 a game (unless you are Steph Curry).

 

A receiver who gets fed the ball and is the focal point, and gets designed plays behind the LOS is going to be less efficient on a yards per target basis than a fourth option who gets 2-3 targets a game.

 

I think you guys are conflating “less efficient” with “bad.” That’s not what I’m trying to say.

 

For Khalil Shakir to remain #1 on yards per target in the NFL and get many more targets than previously would basically make him the best WR in the NFL. It was unrealistic to expect that number to remain on top of the charts. And so far, that is proving correct, as he has now dropped to 13th, which is still VERY EFFICIENT AND EXCELLENT, but less efficient than 2023.

[Augie]

33 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Was that taken at a tailgate where everyone loved him?  

[Peace Frog]

4 hours ago, Irv said:

I hope he doesn't get injured or get feline AIDS.  He's taken some good shots in the first three games.  

 

 

 

Injuries are the #1 killer of YAC.

Edited September 26 by Peace Frog

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, uninja said:

I also just wonder how much of the playbook they’re really showing atm. Feels like there’s really only a handful of plays/concepts and they just keep spamming them until teams figure out how to stop it.

Stuck here inside in Tampa with the hurricane looming.  For the couple of posters I’m pretty good friends, thanks for the well wishes and everything is fine here in Tampa.

 

Uninja, Brady is on record which I like that until opponents can stop us with certain plays, we’ll ram it down their throats.  It’s Football 101, but it works.  As much as I hate BB, he notorious with this type of philosophy.