Matt Harmon: "Khalil Shakir is the perfect WR for the modern NFL"

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

"Where he's so perfect for the modern NFL is that he has no tendencies as a receiver. He can line up in the slot, he can line up outside, he can line up on ball, he can line up off ball, he can be in motion, he can catch the bubble, or he can block for the bubble. So if you can beat tendencies by lining up inside and outside and lining up everywhere and having that versatility...I think that's more valuable..."

 

Love Shakir. But I don't understand what Matt Harmon is talking about. Shakir has taken 75% of his snaps from the slot this year. That isn't inside/outside versatility.

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Love Shakir. But I don't understand what Matt Harmon is talking about. Shakir has taken 75% of his snaps from the slot this year. That isn't inside/outside versatility.

Even somebody who could take 25-35 percentage snaps outside and win

 

Which if you look when Shakirs on the outside he has a consistent release with burst to beat outside press 

 

That's still more than enough to be versatile.. and he could bump up percentage wise outside a little.. I don't think you want him outside more than 40%

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[RoyBatty is alive]

I dont have time to read all the posts, but in terms of real "efficiency", one quasi reliable state is receptions to targets, or better targets to "catchable" targets.  After that incorporate "drops" and then go to YAC.

[Allen2Coleman]

58 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Stuck here inside in Tampa with the hurricane looming.  For the couple of posters I’m pretty good friends, thanks for the well wishes and everything is fine here in Tampa.

 

Uninja, Brady is on record which I like that until opponents can stop us with certain plays, we’ll ram it down their throats.  It’s Football 101, but it works.  As much as I hate BB, he notorious with this type of philosophy.

Hope you live on higher ground 👍

[machine gun kelly]

4 minutes ago, Allen2Coleman said:

Hope you live on higher ground 👍

Allen, thanks.  Yes, we live in elevation C which is the higher one as well as my three children as all are full time employees and also in college.  I mentioned to some friends that Charlie was the only one that scared the heck out of me in 04.  That was a cat 5+ and tightly bound.  The fallout was a. Night mare south of Sarasota, specifically Port Charlotte.  I was a new rep for Medtronic and went there two weeks and couldn’t even get through the city as so much was destroyed.  If it didn’t turn south, it would have been a Katrina event and South Tampa would’ve been under water for years.

 

Allen, you’re always kind, so for that I appreciate it.  I’m doing what probably 80% of Tampans are doing.  Binging Netflix.

 

With each game on topic, I fall in love with Shakir more with each week, and so does Josh.

 

 

[Allen2Coleman]

1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said:

Allen, thanks.  Yes, we live in elevation C which is the higher one as well as my three children as all are full time employees and also in college.  I mentioned to some friends that Charlie was the only one that scared the heck out of me in 04.  That was a cat 5+ and tightly bound.  The fallout was a. Night mare south of Sarasota, specifically Port Charlotte.  I was a new rep for Medtronic and went there two weeks and couldn’t even get through the city as so much was destroyed.  If it didn’t turn south, it would have been a Katrina event and South Tampa would’ve been under water for years.

 

Allen, you’re always kind, so for that I appreciate it.  I’m doing what probably 80% of Tampans are doing.  Binging Netflix.

 

With each game on topic, I fall in love with Shakir more with each week, and so does Josh.

 

 

Praying for you guys, my home is just North of Clermont (West of Orlando)on a hill so not to many worries. I just flew into West Palm Beach this afternoon and for being on this side of the state some of the bands coming through brought some heavy rains so hopefully it keeps tracking to the west and gives you all a break.

[HappyDays]

57 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Even somebody who could take 25-35 percentage snaps outside and win

 

Which if you look when Shakirs on the outside he has a consistent release with burst to beat outside press 

 

That's still more than enough to be versatile.. and he could bump up percentage wise outside a little.. I don't think you want him outside more than 40%

 

I know PFF tracks stuff like this, I don't have access to it but I'd be surprised if it's true that he's getting successful targets against press coverage outside. I mean he only has 14 targets on the year so very small sample size but I don't see him as an inside/outside versatility guy at all. He's an elite efficiency and elite YAC receiver when you get him favorable coverage looks which primarily happens inside. I don't want us to try and make him anything more than that.

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I know PFF tracks stuff like this, I don't have access to it but I'd be surprised if it's true that he's getting successful targets against press coverage outside. I mean he only has 14 targets on the year so very small sample size but I don't see him as an inside/outside versatility guy at all. He's an elite efficiency and elite YAC receiver when you get him favorable coverage looks which primarily happens inside. I don't want us to try and make him anything more than that.

I've watched a lot of his outside snaps over 3 years and he consistently beats press coverage with his release 

 

There's a lot of moving pieces to an NFL pass play... Just cuz you beat the release and get open doesn't mean you get the ball every time 

 

He certainly has shown the ability to beat outside press coverage when given the chance... He has a very crisp and versatile release game

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[HappyDays]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

He went 70 yards on a dig route last year versus saucegardner

 

That wasn't versus Sauce Gardner though. Sauce tried to get involved in the play at the last second because he realized what was about to happen, but Shakir did not outright beat him on that play. And Shakir was in the slot on that play:

 

 

[Buffalo716]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That wasn't versus Sauce Gardner though. Sauce tried to get involved in the play at the last second because he realized what was about to happen, but Shakir did not outright beat him on that play. And Shakir was in the slot on that play:

 

 

I already deleted that because that was a mistake.. I thought it was an inside dig but it was from the slot

 

My point stands he is able to beat press coverage with his release if you look at the film

 

There's enough snaps from the outside over 3 years to see he does not get pressed jammed at the line

 

Whether you get the ball or not on any given play isn't as important on if you do your job and beat your individual person... 100% he's better from the slot 

 

But you could still throw him outside some 30% of the time and get some results 

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

For what it’s worth, Shakir’s efficiency has dropped. 
 

He went from ~16 YPC to 12.

 

he was #1 in the NFL in 2023 in yards per target.

 

He’s down to 13th which is still quite excellent.

 

IMO, increased target share almost  always decreases efficiency.

 

It’s sort of like basketball. Some guys can shoot 40% from 3 when they take 2-3 shots per game.

 

When they start taking eight 3’s a game, most players drop into the 30s. 
 

Shakir has done very well with his numbers and continues to get better, but a decrease in efficiency doesn’t necessarily make him a worse player. Jmo.

Everything you're discussing is based on a reduced depth of target. He's only down 1.6 yards per target while dropping 5.3 yards in depth of target with a 100% catch rate. If I can throw it shorter to gain close to the same, the same, or more, I'm increasing efficiency. That is exactly what he is doing.   

 

He's second in the NFL in success rate (40% of yards on 1st, 60% on 2nd, or 100% on 3rd) over 10 catches.

Edited September 26 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I already deleted that because that was a mistake

 

My point stands he beats press coverage with his release if you look at the film

 

Maybe, I haven't watched enough of the film specifically to say you're wrong. All I know is he isn't making plays in those situations. He's making plays when he gets a free release and the ball is delivered to him with space to work with. I absolutely love his skill set and think he's a perfect complementary piece. I just don't agree with Matt Harmon that he's the "perfect WR for the modern NFL." The perfect WR is Justin Jefferson who's currently taking 20% of his snaps out of the slot and single handedly giving Sam Darnold's career a shot in the arm. Shakir would be a great piece on any offense but he is never going to be a focal point that you can run the offense though IMO.

 

I will say that Shakir is the perfect slot WR for this current Bills offense. Most of Josh's career he had to make every yard happen on his own. Being able to throw a shallow drag route at the opponent's 25 yard line that ultimately becomes a TD is incredibly valuable and I don't take it for granted.

[Buffalo716]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Maybe, I haven't watched enough of the film specifically to say you're wrong. All I know is he isn't making plays in those situations. He's making plays when he gets a free release and the ball is delivered to him with space to work with. I absolutely love his skill set and think he's a perfect complementary piece. I just don't agree with Matt Harmon that he's the "perfect WR for the modern NFL." The perfect WR is Justin Jefferson who's currently taking 20% of his snaps out of the slot and single handedly giving Sam Darnold's career a shot in the arm. Shakir would be a great piece on any offense but he is never going to be a focal point that you can run the offense though IMO.

 

I will say that Shakir is the perfect slot WR for this current Bills offense. Most of Josh's career he had to make every yard happen on his own. Being able to throw a shallow drag route at the opponent's 25 yard line that ultimately becomes a TD is incredibly valuable and I don't take it for granted.

Justin Jefferson was top five in the NFL in yards from the slot in 2022 and 2023 

 

He does crazy damage from the slot the majority of his career 

 

Now I'm not comparing him to Justin Jefferson who is the most talented receiver in the league .. 

 

But shakir is able to get open outside when asked .. his technique with his play strength and burst gives him a lot of release options that he's only going to improve

 

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[boyst]

He was on Sirius NFL radio

He had no idea he was tied for the record of targets / catches.

 

They asked how many catches he had in the playoffs, because they counted 30 targets and catches. Didn't have a drop in the playoffs 

 

It was all news to him. 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

So yards passed per game is a volume stat. 
 

if you don’t pass a lot, you won’t have a lot of yards.

 

YPC and yards per target doesn’t care if you had one catch or 10 catches. Thats why it’s an efficiency stat. 
 

Shakir’s efficiency was extraordinary last year on low volume. His volume has gone up and his efficiency has dropped a bit, but is still excellent.

I really don’t agree with your description of “myopic” or analogy at all, it doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

EPA per target is arguably a more relevant efficiency metric than yards per target (because for example a 9 yard screen pass that turns into a TD is more valuable than a 12 yard gain on 3rd and 15, and only EPA per target would capture this), and Shakir is currently leading the NFL in EPA per target according to this article:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5785494/2024/09/26/nfl-week-4-picks-predictions-betting-jayden-daniels?source=user-shared-article

 

Quote

It’s hard seeing the Ravens having an answer for Shakir, who leads the NFL in EPA per target (1.51).

 

[NewEra]

He doesn’t even have a 900 yard season yet!!!  Word on the streets is that he’s no Jordan Matthews!!

 

 

this thread hasn’t disappointed.  It’s only going to get better and better

Edited September 27 by NewEra

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

With each game on topic, I fall in love with Shakir more with each week, and so does Josh.

 

Sjhakir is a professional and takes care of himself; Eric Moulds is proud of his protege.

[3rdand12]

7 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

I was hoping he’d sign his second contract before anyone realized he’s a 1 hiding in plain sight.  Still hoping, in spite of him leading the NFL in yards per target, catch percentage and setting the NFL record for consecutive targets caught. 

hiding in plain sight

love that Mr Romes

 

what is it ? 27 for 27 receptions vs pass attempts ?

 good lord thats a wonnerful wonnerful thing

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Even somebody who could take 25-35 percentage snaps outside and win

 

Which if you look when Shakirs on the outside he has a consistent release with burst to beat outside press 

 

That's still more than enough to be versatile.. and he could bump up percentage wise outside a little.. I don't think you want him outside more than 40%

Good lord 716 ! dont mess with this Allen to Shakir thing , please oh please

just live in the moment wouldja ?

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

hiding in plain sight

love that Mr Romes

 

what is it ? 27 for 27 receptions vs pass attempts ?

 good lord thats a wonnerful wonnerful thing

Good lord 716 ! dont mess with this Allen to Shakir thing , please oh please

just live in the moment wouldja ?

I think the bills are letting shakir live in the moment and they're not going to ask him to do too much 

 

He's a really good slot receiver who can do some other stuff.. and they're going to keep asking him to do what he's comfortable with 

 

Going across the middle and taking screens and breaking tackles

[Solomon Grundy]

8 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

I was hoping he’d sign his second contract before anyone realized he’s a 1 hiding in plain sight.  Still hoping, in spite of him leading the NFL in yards per target, catch percentage and setting the NFL record for consecutive targets caught. 

Eric Moulds protege. Now introduce Moulds to Keon