Matt Harmon: "Khalil Shakir is the perfect WR for the modern NFL"

[Logic]

If any of you know Matt Harmon, he's a guy that really studies WRs. You may have seen his Reception Perception charts, which look like this:



Anyway....He just released an episode of his podcast wherein he discusses with Nate Tice (another guy whose football opinions I love hearing) the perfect type of receiver in the modern NFL.

Essentially, he argues that in order to combat the current trends in defensive coverage, it is less advantageous to be a big-bodied, traditional alpha outside receiver, and less advantageous to be pigeonholed into one receiver position or only have one or two calling cards to beat defensive backs. 

Instead, Harmon says, the ideal WR for this current moment in the NFL has a diverse skillset, YAC ability, blocking ability, inside/outside versatility, and being effective from the slot (while still having enough size to be friendly to the QB against zone). 

His top example? Khalil Shakir. He says of Shakir: "Where he's so perfect for the modern NFL is that he has no tendencies as a receiver. He can line up in the slot, he can line up outside, he can line up on ball, he can line up off ball, he can be in motion, he can catch the bubble, or he can block for the bubble. So if you can beat tendencies by lining up inside and outside and lining up everywhere and having that versatility...I think that's more valuable..."

You can skip to about the five minute mark of the podcast to hear the start of this discussion.
 

 

[Irv]

I hope he doesn't get injured or get feline AIDS.  He's taken some good shots in the first three games.  

 

 

 

Edited September 26 by Irv

[Charles Romes]

I was hoping he’d sign his second contract before anyone realized he’s a 1 hiding in plain sight.  Still hoping, in spite of him leading the NFL in yards per target, catch percentage and setting the NFL record for consecutive targets caught. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Logic if there was ever to be a comment about a guy in the NFL this year...man, that is it. 

 

What this league does...what it does right now...what he brings...soooooooooooo good.

 

 

[Andrew Son]

Uh Oh, look out Harmon, @BADOLBILZ is about to be all up in your DM's

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Rice is a stud. Potentially also a felon. But in terms of pure football acumen...total stud.

I echo Harmon's sentiment that I'd like to see the Bills use Coleman in a lot of the same ways the Chiefs use Rice. Their skillsets are different, but some of the ways the Chiefs deploy Rice would help cover up some of Coleman's weaknesses and accentuate some of his strengths.

 

 

 

 

We'll do that in another one or two years when we try to keep up with KC's schemes and play calling, which seems to be the norm for us........always a day late and a dollar short when we're modelling our team after the Chiefs.

[VaMilBill]

For lack of a better term he’s like our version of Julian Edelman without the part of him being an a&$

[msw2112]

On 9/26/2024 at 9:52 AM, Irv said:

I hope he doesn't get injured or get feline AIDS.  He's taken some good shots in the first three games.  

 

 

 

 

It's the #1 killer of domestic cats....

Edited September 27 by msw2112

[RoscoeParrish]

15 minutes ago, Andrew Son said:

I recall you presenting concerns about Shakir stepping into a more prominent role and not being able to sustain the success/efficiency he had last year as the 3rd/4th option.  Something about being the same situation as expecting Gabe to step into WR2.

 

Is this still a concern?

For what it’s worth, Shakir’s efficiency has dropped. 
 

He went from ~16 YPC to 12.

 

he was #1 in the NFL in 2023 in yards per target.

 

He’s down to 13th which is still quite excellent.

 

IMO, increased target share almost  always decreases efficiency.

 

It’s sort of like basketball. Some guys can shoot 40% from 3 when they take 2-3 shots per game.

 

When they start taking eight 3’s a game, most players drop into the 30s. 
 

Shakir has done very well with his numbers and continues to get better, but a decrease in efficiency doesn’t necessarily make him a worse player. Jmo.

[Buffalo716]

24 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

We'll do that in another one or two years when we try to keep up with KC's schemes and play calling, which seems to be the norm for us........always a day late and a dollar short when we're modelling our team after the Chiefs.

You act like the Kansas City Chiefs are going to win 15 straight super bowls LOL doesn't work that way

 

It's the NFL and the bills are absolutely the next team up...

 

The Chiefs are about to be playing catch up to the Buffalo Bills 

 

We are above them right now as a football team and the play on the field shows it.. thinking your past success will always guarantee future success is a great way to never have anymore

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

he gets the targets to put the stats up.. nobody in our offense is going to have the targets at the end of the year he has

 

Khalil with the same targets is putting up the same numbers 

 

Patrick mahomes has always force-fed one or two guys... He's not getting open at a better rate than Khalil

 

 

Oh man,  Mahomes just won a SB taking what the defense gave him and you are calling him a force feeder?  Really?

 

When the short armed Shakir adds this downfield contested aspect to his game then maybe he can get those target numbers:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/touchdown-patrick-mahomes-strike-hits-rashee-rice-in-stride-for-44-yard-score

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Oh man,  Mahomes just won a SB taking what the defense gave him and you are calling him a force feeder?  Really?

 

When the short armed Shakir adds this downfield contested aspect to his game then maybe he can get those target numbers:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/touchdown-patrick-mahomes-strike-hits-rashee-rice-in-stride-for-44-yard-score

I didn't use the word force feed in a negative.. in his career he has always gotten the ball to a couple of majority targets..  not saying he's forcing the ball to unopened guys

 

The Chiefs game plans always have some guy getting almost 8-10 targets.. 8-10 targets in an NFL game is forcing the ball to somebody in technical terms

 

Every NFL team has five or six wide receiver three running backs and two or three tight ends..  you can scheme up pass plays for 12 people

 

Diggs getting 10 targets game was force feeding him

 

Our top two guys targets wise have 14 and 12 targets over three games..   rice has 29... That's a lot of targets.. even if you're good 

 

Josh Allen has shown he could throw the ball 10 times a game to one person he's choosing not to

 

Shakir is really close physically to amon ra st. Brown , a little lighter but he's faster and both tough runners 

 

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

46 minutes ago, Logic said:

Rice is a stud. Potentially also a felon. But in terms of pure football acumen...total stud.

I echo Harmon's sentiment that I'd like to see the Bills use Coleman in a lot of the same ways the Chiefs use Rice. Their skillsets are different, but some of the ways the Chiefs deploy Rice would help cover up some of Coleman's weaknesses and accentuate some of his strengths.

 

 

We came into this season knowing that they have an overabundance of guys who should be playing slot type roles.   I figured they would probably HAVE to use Coleman there some to get him going and that would cost Shakir snaps so they would cannibalize each others snaps a bit and that would hurt Shakir's numbers.    I don't have the positional snap data yet but fwiw,  Shakir has only played about 58% of the offensive snaps.   I think most would have assumed that he was going to be getting Gabe or Diggs type snap counts but nope.  Hollins and Coleman have both played more.

[JerseyBills]

Been saying he's a stud but what about a big bodied guy like Nico Collins.

 

Guess there are outliers in everything but he reminds me a bit like Calvin Johnson. Extremely tough to gameplan for

[TheBrownBear]

Love Shakir.  If I were in the market for a jersey, that's the one I'd grab.  He's going to have a long and successful career here.  He's our Hines Ward.

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Rice is a stud. Potentially also a felon. But in terms of pure football acumen...total stud.

I echo Harmon's sentiment that I'd like to see the Bills use Coleman in a lot of the same ways the Chiefs use Rice. Their skillsets are different, but some of the ways the Chiefs deploy Rice would help cover up some of Coleman's weaknesses and accentuate some of his strengths.

Logic, I’m guessing the turf toe is still lingering for Samuel as he should be making more of an impact.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Logic, I’m guessing the turf toe is still lingering for Samuel as he should be making more of an impact.

Turf toe is a very lingering injury that just doesn't go away easily 

 

Deion Sanders had severe turf toe which led to other complications and he had to amputate his big toe

Edited September 26 by Buffalo716

[RoyBatty is alive]

42 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

For what it’s worth, Shakir’s efficiency has dropped. 
 

He went from ~16 YPC to 12.

 

he was #1 in the NFL in 2023 in yards per target.

 

He’s down to 13th which is still quite excellent.

 

IMO, increased target share almost  always decreases efficiency.

 

It’s sort of like basketball. Some guys can shoot 40% from 3 when they take 2-3 shots per game.

 

When they start taking eight 3’s a game, most players drop into the 30s. 
 

Shakir has done very well with his numbers and continues to get better, but a decrease in efficiency doesn’t necessarily make him a worse player. Jmo.

Shakir's "efficiency" as you state by only measuring YPC ranking is myopic imo.  That is like saying Josh Allen is having an off year because his yards passed per game is so low.  He is arguably having his best year but to WIN, he doesn't have to throw for 400 yards, a healthy maturation of Allen and the overall offense.  Just win.

 

Same with Shakir, he might not build up incredible stats as the Bills have 1)  yet to need Allens long ball AND 2) his distribution to all receivers has been extraordinary.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Logic, I’m guessing the turf toe is still lingering for Samuel as he should be making more of an impact.

Great call!

I was actually just wondering today why we haven't seen more from Samuel, particularly considering what they're paying him. He's been the most invisible receiver on the roster from a production standpoint. 

I had totally forgotten about the turf toe thing. I wonder if that's partially what's behind Samuel's lack of production thus far.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

15 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Love Shakir.  If I were in the market for a jersey, that's the one I'd grab.  He's going to have a long and successful career here.  He's our Hines Ward.

That's REALLY gonna trigger @BADOLBILZ

 

You guys think I'M negative? lol