Computer Analysis says Ravens Win- How Accurate are These Things?

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I think a predictive model that means anything needs more than 3 games of data.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Stop Henry

McD defense is still soft up the middle. Always has been.  Play 8 in the box and trust our corners to cover.  I'd like to see Bishop get a few series in place of Hamlin for some added size at the S spot.  That way you can disguise if it will be Rapp or Bishop at the LOS.  We don't have the LBs to play 4-3 but maybe some crazy 5-2 looks with Williams spying Jackson in the more obvious rush down/distances.

[MJS]

Nothing and nobody is ever more than about 68% accurate at predicting games at the high end (over a long period of time).

 

So, any prediction is going to be well below any statistical significance.

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, buffblue said:

Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game?

 

The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc.

 

I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here...

 

I feel the same. Im not worried about them. I think the Bills can beat anybody and I dont think the Ravens are that special.  That doesnt meant the cant or wont lose. Its just how I feel about it.

[VW82]

Pretty sure the betting public looked at Lamar and Henry vs. Spector, Dorian, Ingram, and Hamlin and that's why Ravens are favoured.  

 

Also, Not For Long remains true for early season.

Edited September 27 by VW82

[Gman10]

Im sure these computers gave the Raiders a 0% chance beating the Ravens and the Panthers a 0% chance of beating the Raiders...but here we are

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore.  

For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago.  ELO works in sports, too.  

 

There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings.  There might be some other sites as well.

 

Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team.  Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2.  More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning.   

 

If I understand  their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions.  They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines).  They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future...  Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market."

 

Whatever.  I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory.  

 

www.nfeloapp.com

I thought it was just a band from the 70’s and 80’s.  Just kidding Hondo.  I’m not as familiar as you with ELO.  It’s an interesting topic.

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

Im sure these computers gave the Raiders a 0% chance beating the Ravens and the Panthers a 0% chance of beating the Raiders...but here we are

Exactly.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 hours ago, T.E. said:

They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think.

Easily is a little bit of a stretch… would’ve had to get their feet in on that catch against the chiefs, convert the two point conversion, and not blow it against the raiders.  Heck of a lot closer to 0-3 than 3-0. 

 

the much more important game thing is bollocks imo…the 1 seed is insanely important and the jets are lookin good enough to push us for the division.. every conference game is extremely important  

Edited September 27 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[buffaloboyinATL]

For the first time in awhile, I don’t feel like we are being out-coached, on either side of the ball. That, plus Josh Allen, plus many other talented players on the team,  has made me believe we can beat anyone.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

55 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Pretty sure the betting public looked at Lamar and Henry vs. Spector, Dorian, Ingram, and Hamlin and that's why Ravens are favoured.  

 

Also, Not For Long remains true for early season.

Ravens banged up oline against our dline seems pretty exploitable too though.  I think the betting public is too caught up with ‘the ravens can’t afford to lose so they’re gonna win’ honestly

[mikemac2001]

11 hours ago, jethro_tull said:

Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations.  What is their recent track record, anyone?  

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

About as accurate as Nick Wright or Colin Cowherd.

Sabres, you mean Nick Wrong.  That hot take baffoon is doing nothing but getting more clicks.  It’s one of the reasons I won’t watch so many so of those shows.  I think I’ve mentioned on the board before I enjoy the morning WGR stuff as I feel I’m still connected to Buffalo, and MTC on NFLR.  Those guys are phenomenal in a not hot take, better analysis of the whole league.  GMFB is ok, but I’m so busy all day I have more time for radio as in medical sales.  I’m perpetually driving to another hospital or specialist to help patients.  My daughter hated when younger I rarely put in music.

[Dr.Sack]

The Ravens are the type of team that could give our rush defense problems. For that reason alone I expect a lot of zone defense with blitzes into the B gaps. Expect a busy day for our safeties and nickel on the Ravens TEs. 

[Mikie2times]

Almost guaranteed

 

[buffblue]

50 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

For the first time in awhile, I don’t feel like we are being out-coached, on either side of the ball. That, plus Josh Allen, plus many other talented players on the team,  has made me believe we can beat anyone.  

I would add to this the physicality that Buffalo has demonstrated so far. We are not a soft, finesse team anymore. Last week I was banging the drum that Baltimore, even at a lesser version of their typical selves, would abuse Dallas. But we're not the Cowboys

[BigAl2526]

I think observers are giving the Cowboys too much credit and by extension overinflating the value of Baltimore's narrow win over the Cowboys.  The Cowboys struggled to get by a mediocre Giants team tonight.  Yes, it will be a challenge to defend what Baltimore can do with Jackson and Henry on the ground, but I don't think there are any teams in the league better than Buffalo at strategizing to contain an opponent's best weapons as long as the team executes the strategy well.

[Ayjent]

2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

I think observers are giving the Cowboys too much credit and by extension overinflating the value of Baltimore's narrow win over the Cowboys.  The Cowboys struggled to get by a mediocre Giants team tonight.  Yes, it will be a challenge to defend what Baltimore can do with Jackson and Henry on the ground, but I don't think there are any teams in the league better than Buffalo at strategizing to contain an opponent's best weapons as long as the team executes the strategy well.

Mediocre Giants team is generous but your point is valid.  The Giants pull that game out if Jones doesn’t hurt them but that is the Daniel Jones experience. If anything the Cowboys are the definition of mediocre so far this season if not on the less than mediocre side due to the inability to run and the inability to stop the run.  
 

As far as the Ravens are concerned, they have the weapons to pose problems for anyone on Offense but generally making Lamar beat you with his arm and keeping him contained in the pocket is the strategy to limit how they can hurt you.  Keeping Henry from getting a full head of steam past the LOS is the other key. The Bills have the speed to keep Lamar hemmed in, and it really is going to be about how well the D plays up the middle on stopping Henry.  On the other side I think that is where the Ravens are a worse team than last year by a lot, bc they lost some important pieces in their prime and have had trouble stopping teams in the passing game. I think the Bills showed against the Jags that if you want to stop the run they are very comfortable throwing the ball to beat you.  In fact you might be better off as a Defense when the Bills run rather than pass.  The Bills backs are dangerous weapons in the pass game.  
 

The Ravens played their best game against KC, but they relied on Lamar’s legs a lot.  Like Josh that can carry them but it comes at a high cost if a hit injures or impairs them.  
 

It really comes down to can the Bills continue playing the way that they have so far.  The Ravens are a good team.  However, Im not sure that they are as good as they were last year, but teams do figure things out as seasons progress.

[BigDingus]

15 hours ago, SCBills said:

Seems some people, even some of our influencer types on X, view the Ravens as if they are still what they’ve been. 
 

They’re a good team, but their OL is not good and their DL is pretty average.  
 

We should have a decided advantage in the trenches.  

 

If that's the case, how are they able to completely shut down everyone's rushing attack?

 

They're dead last in pass defense, but is that just because everyone abandons the run & passes all game, or is are they passing more often because the Ravens pass D is something they think can be exploited?

[Ayjent]

30 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

If that's the case, how are they able to completely shut down everyone's rushing attack?

 

They're dead last in pass defense, but is that just because everyone abandons the run & passes all game, or is are they passing more often because the Ravens pass D is something they think can be exploited?

it’s a good question, but at 1-2 with that imbalance, it says maybe you have a problematic weakness rather than an advantageous strength.  There really just aren’t enough games to draw any meaningful conclusions.  The Chiefs moved the ball pretty well however they wanted, the Raiders offense is limited and of you’ll take your chances with Minshew beating you, and Dallas is one dimensional on both sides.  I’d test their pass D early and often.  I remember Bills teams with similar ratings where one part of their D was so bad that the other part looked good, but it was just a function of why bother testing the one part of their defense when you can beat the clearly vulnerable part consistently.