jethro_tull Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted yesterday at 04:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:59 PM Don’t know where you saw this, but ESPN actually gives the Bills a higher % of winning: https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/41422426/week-4-nfl-games-betting-odds-lines-picks-spreads-more-2024-season 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM ……at least 50% of the time be my guess. 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted yesterday at 05:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:05 PM 60% of the time it works... every time. 4 1 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM 35 minutes ago, jethro_tull said: Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted yesterday at 05:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:21 PM 538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore. For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago. ELO works in sports, too. There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings. There might be some other sites as well. Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team. Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2. More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning. If I understand their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions. They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines). They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future... Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market." Whatever. I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory. www.nfeloapp.com 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM (edited) 8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it. I thought locker room wall stuff fired you up because it was something opposing teams or players said about you. Not sure how fired up you can get if a computer decides you suck. Edited yesterday at 05:24 PM by WideNine 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffblue Posted yesterday at 05:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:29 PM (edited) Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... Edited yesterday at 05:30 PM by buffblue 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted yesterday at 05:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:35 PM 4 minutes ago, buffblue said: Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... Seems some people, even some of our influencer types on X, view the Ravens as if they are still what they’ve been. They’re a good team, but their OL is not good and their DL is pretty average. We should have a decided advantage in the trenches. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted yesterday at 05:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:37 PM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM About as accurate as Nick Wright or Colin Cowherd. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T.E. Posted yesterday at 05:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:40 PM 7 minutes ago, buffblue said: Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saxum Posted yesterday at 05:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:43 PM About as accurate as AWS best schedule being true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffblue Posted yesterday at 05:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:44 PM Just now, T.E. said: They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think. Ok, but they lost to the Raiders at home. I'm not really interested that they almost beat Gardner Minshew. And as I stated in my first post, the "need" factor could work the other way because of the huge implications for them. I don't even think they're going to be coming in on a high after nearly blowing that game to Dallas. The Ravens just haven't been a very good team to this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted yesterday at 05:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:50 PM I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites. Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game]. He has Baltimore ranked 12th. Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game. FWIW 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVilanch Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOBART Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM 1 hour ago, jethro_tull said: Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? My 'simulation', shows that Lamar folds, in big games. 😅 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM 45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: 538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore. For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago. ELO works in sports, too. There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings. There might be some other sites as well. Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team. Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2. More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning. If I understand their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions. They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines). They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future... Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market." Whatever. I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory. www.nfeloapp.com ELO ratings? So techno pop now predicts football? Are we morphing from Mr. Brightside into Mr. Bluesky? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC The Bills have a day less to prepare for the Ravens this week, but that’s OK. Unlike the Cowboys, they will be able to contain Derrick Henry and force Lamar Jackson to beat them either with his arm or by scrambling. Jackson needs more out of Zay Flowers, who ranks 57th (out of 63 qualified WRs) in EPA per reception at 0.5 despite ranking third in average separation at the ball’s arrival at 4.35 yards. And the Ravens need more out of their defense. They have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, but their secondary was leaky when the Raiders and Cowboys opened things up the last two games. Josh Allen has been spreading the ball around, but maybe he should lock in on Khalil Shakir more. It’s hard seeing the Ravens having an answer for Shakir, who leads the NFL in EPA per target (1.51). It’s a passing of the torch of MVPs. The pick: Bills https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5785494/2024/09/26/nfl-week-4-picks-predictions-betting-jayden-daniels/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago (edited) 43 minutes ago, BearNorth said: I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites. Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game]. He has Baltimore ranked 12th. Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game. FWIW Sagarin has been around a loong time. 1985! Edited 23 hours ago by WotAGuy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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