jethro_tull Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? Quote
strive_for_five_guy Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Don’t know where you saw this, but ESPN actually gives the Bills a higher % of winning: https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/41422426/week-4-nfl-games-betting-odds-lines-picks-spreads-more-2024-season 2 Quote
BuffaloBillyG Posted September 26 Posted September 26 60% of the time it works... every time. 4 1 6 2 Quote
PromoTheRobot Posted September 26 Posted September 26 35 minutes ago, jethro_tull said: Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it. 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted September 26 Posted September 26 538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore. For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago. ELO works in sports, too. There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings. There might be some other sites as well. Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team. Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2. More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning. If I understand their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions. They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines). They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future... Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market." Whatever. I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory. www.nfeloapp.com 3 3 Quote
WideNine Posted September 26 Posted September 26 (edited) 8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it. I thought locker room wall stuff fired you up because it was something opposing teams or players said about you. Not sure how fired up you can get if a computer decides you suck. Edited September 26 by WideNine 3 Quote
buffblue Posted September 26 Posted September 26 (edited) Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... Edited September 26 by buffblue 3 Quote
SCBills Posted September 26 Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, buffblue said: Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... Seems some people, even some of our influencer types on X, view the Ravens as if they are still what they’ve been. They’re a good team, but their OL is not good and their DL is pretty average. We should have a decided advantage in the trenches. 1 1 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted September 26 Posted September 26 About as accurate as Nick Wright or Colin Cowherd. 2 Quote
T.E. Posted September 26 Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, buffblue said: Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game? The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc. I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here... They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think. Quote
Saxum Posted September 26 Posted September 26 About as accurate as AWS best schedule being true. Quote
buffblue Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Just now, T.E. said: They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think. Ok, but they lost to the Raiders at home. I'm not really interested that they almost beat Gardner Minshew. And as I stated in my first post, the "need" factor could work the other way because of the huge implications for them. I don't even think they're going to be coming in on a high after nearly blowing that game to Dallas. The Ravens just haven't been a very good team to this point. 1 Quote
BearNorth Posted September 26 Posted September 26 I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites. Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game]. He has Baltimore ranked 12th. Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game. FWIW 3 Quote
BUFFALOBART Posted September 26 Posted September 26 1 hour ago, jethro_tull said: Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations. What is their recent track record, anyone? My 'simulation', shows that Lamar folds, in big games. 😅 1 1 Quote
4merper4mer Posted September 26 Posted September 26 45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: 538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore. For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago. ELO works in sports, too. There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings. There might be some other sites as well. Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team. Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2. More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning. If I understand their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions. They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines). They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future... Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market." Whatever. I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory. www.nfeloapp.com ELO ratings? So techno pop now predicts football? Are we morphing from Mr. Brightside into Mr. Bluesky? 3 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC The Bills have a day less to prepare for the Ravens this week, but that’s OK. Unlike the Cowboys, they will be able to contain Derrick Henry and force Lamar Jackson to beat them either with his arm or by scrambling. Jackson needs more out of Zay Flowers, who ranks 57th (out of 63 qualified WRs) in EPA per reception at 0.5 despite ranking third in average separation at the ball’s arrival at 4.35 yards. And the Ravens need more out of their defense. They have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, but their secondary was leaky when the Raiders and Cowboys opened things up the last two games. Josh Allen has been spreading the ball around, but maybe he should lock in on Khalil Shakir more. It’s hard seeing the Ravens having an answer for Shakir, who leads the NFL in EPA per target (1.51). It’s a passing of the torch of MVPs. The pick: Bills https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5785494/2024/09/26/nfl-week-4-picks-predictions-betting-jayden-daniels/ 1 Quote
WotAGuy Posted September 26 Posted September 26 (edited) 43 minutes ago, BearNorth said: I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites. Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game]. He has Baltimore ranked 12th. Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game. FWIW Sagarin has been around a loong time. 1985! Edited September 26 by WotAGuy 1 Quote
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