Computer Analysis says Ravens Win- How Accurate are These Things?

[jethro_tull]

Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations.  What is their recent track record, anyone?  

[strive_for_five_guy]

Don’t know where you saw this, but ESPN actually gives the Bills a higher % of winning:

https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/41422426/week-4-nfl-games-betting-odds-lines-picks-spreads-more-2024-season

[US Egg]

……at least 50% of the time be my guess.

[BuffaloBillyG]

60% of the time it works... every time.

[PromoTheRobot]

35 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations.  What is their recent track record, anyone?  

 

More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it.

[hondo in seattle]

538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore.  

For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago.  ELO works in sports, too.  

 

There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings.  There might be some other sites as well.

 

Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team.  Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2.  More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning.   

 

If I understand  their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions.  They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines).  They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future...  Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market."

 

Whatever.  I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory.  

 

www.nfeloapp.com

[WideNine]

8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

More stuff for the locker room wall. Bring it.

 

I thought locker room wall stuff fired you up because it was something opposing teams or players said about you.

 

Not sure how fired up you can get if a computer decides you suck.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by WideNine

[buffblue]

Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game?

 

The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc.

 

I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here...

Edited 5 hours ago by buffblue

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, buffblue said:

Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game?

 

The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc.

 

I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here...

Seems some people, even some of our influencer types on X, view the Ravens as if they are still what they’ve been. 
 

They’re a good team, but their OL is not good and their DL is pretty average.  
 

We should have a decided advantage in the trenches.  

[Sweats]

[GASabresIUFan]

About as accurate as Nick Wright or Colin Cowherd.

[T.E.]

7 minutes ago, buffblue said:

Am I the only one who feels very confident about this game?

 

The Ravens have a banged up offensive line and a porous defense. We've defended them well in the past and have the perceived edge of being underdogs at 3-0. Baltimore needs a win big time and as a result could be feeling a ton of pressure. They lost at home to the Raiders who then turned around and got destroyed at home by the friggin Panthers. Etc, etc.

 

I'm not worried at all about our ability to win this game. Sure we could lose, but it's not like Baltimore is some juggernaut here...

They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think.

[Saxum]

About as accurate as AWS best schedule being true.

[buffblue]

Just now, T.E. said:

They could easily be 3-0, they're at home, and this game is much more important to them than it is to us, in regards to divison and conference standings. All of that has to be factored in, I think.

Ok, but they lost to the Raiders at home. I'm not really interested that they almost beat Gardner Minshew. And as I stated in my first post, the "need" factor could work the other way because of the huge implications for them. I don't even think they're going to be coming in on a high after nearly blowing that game to Dallas. The Ravens just haven't been a very good team to this point.

[BearNorth]

I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites.  Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game].  He has Baltimore ranked 12th.

 

Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game.

 

FWIW

[BruceVilanch]

[BUFFALOBART]

1 hour ago, jethro_tull said:

Most sites are predicting a Raven's win and cover based on running computer based simulations.  What is their recent track record, anyone?  

My 'simulation', shows that Lamar folds, in big games. 😅

[4merper4mer]

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore.  

For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago.  ELO works in sports, too.  

 

There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings.  There might be some other sites as well.

 

Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team.  Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2.  More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning.   

 

If I understand  their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions.  They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines).  They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future...  Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market."

 

Whatever.  I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory.  

 

www.nfeloapp.com

ELO ratings?  So techno pop now predicts football?  Are we morphing from Mr. Brightside into Mr. Bluesky?

[GASabresIUFan]

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

The Bills have a day less to prepare for the Ravens this week, but that’s OK. Unlike the Cowboys, they will be able to contain Derrick Henry and force Lamar Jackson to beat them either with his arm or by scrambling. Jackson needs more out of Zay Flowers, who ranks 57th (out of 63 qualified WRs) in EPA per reception at 0.5 despite ranking third in average separation at the ball’s arrival at 4.35 yards. And the Ravens need more out of their defense. They have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, but their secondary was leaky when the Raiders and Cowboys opened things up the last two games. Josh Allen has been spreading the ball around, but maybe he should lock in on Khalil Shakir more. It’s hard seeing the Ravens having an answer for Shakir, who leads the NFL in EPA per target (1.51). It’s a passing of the torch of MVPs.

The pick: Bills 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5785494/2024/09/26/nfl-week-4-picks-predictions-betting-jayden-daniels/

[WotAGuy]

43 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

I look at Massey and Sagarin's sites.  Massey has the Bills as the #1 team in the league and a 3 pt favorite with a 56% win probablity [adjusted for a road game].  He has Baltimore ranked 12th.

 

Sagarin also has Bills as the top ranked team in all of his models [ELO based] and has Bills favored over #12 Ravens by between 2 and 4.5 adjusted for the road game.

 

FWIW

Sagarin has been around a loong time. 1985!

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by WotAGuy