Buffalo Bills: Elite early season team, year after year

[hondo in seattle]

56 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

We lost the opener two years ago and only lost two games the rest of the regular season lol 

 

last year not only were we pretty beat up on the defensive side but the chiefs were freakishly uninjured for the playoffs…everything always seems to go their way it’s ridiculous 

 

edit nope I’m an idiot we lost the opener last year and three years ago 😁 time flies 

 

My memory is imperfect so I was probably wrong.  But the general idea remains.  Injuries suck.  All teams get injuries but our D seems to be cursed with multiple injuries  to key players. 

 

Yet McD seems to, maybe not right away, field a capable D despite whatever injuries we suffer...  but only until the playoffs.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Patterns are fine and dandy, but at the end of the day each year is an entirely different team and story to be written, given the roster churn outside of a core group—and this year you almost can’t even say core group for anyone outside of Allen and a precious few holdovers, so this is all new territory imho! Maybe no one has told the new guys yet that they have a script to follow? 🤔🤓

[BillsVet]

Gotta love this board.  

 

Latest narrative is now in place...that they had so much roster turnover in the off-season that this start is even more amazing.  I can see that line getting used if there's a downturn.  

 

And then there's the old stand-by of injuries.   From 2020-2022 they lost almost no significant starters beside Tre (later 2021), Hyde (2022) and Miller (later 2022).  No one on offense of note was hurt last year, but you wouldn't know it because when a starter goes down you can set your clock to someone bemoaning injuries and citing it for poor play.  As if one guy getting hurt (other than Josh) long-term is enough.     

 

In other words, if they play well it's incredible because of roster turnover and injuries.  But if they don't, well, they had to deal with roster turnover and injuries.

 

Tails I win.  Heads you lose.   

[Avisan]

2 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

In other words, if they play well it's incredible because of roster turnover and injuries.  But if they don't, well, they had to deal with roster turnover and injuries.

 

Tails I win.  Heads you lose. 

I... don't think you understand that saying?

 

Bad Thing happened.  Team has to deal with Bad Thing.  Wow, team is doing great despite Bad Thing!  That's even more impressive!

 

At no point has the view on Bad Thing changed in that sequence.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

20 hours ago, Low Positive said:

I remember when we were the "best team in the NFL" when we beat Miami last year in week 4. I just don't understand what happened when they came back from London last year. Losing that single game should not have derailed things so badly. 

 

They lost the best CB Tre White and the best LB Matt Milano is what derailed things so badly. 

[BuffaloBill]

23 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Snake bitten with injuries by mid season 2 of the last 3 years.  This year is different, we were snake bitten early and still rose to the occasion. 

 Injuries played a part but turnovers also hurt. One of the best things about JA this year is that he has cut down on turnovers (interceptions specifically). Add to this JA has had more of an opportunity to play “on-script” and a better script at that, and you get strong improvements.

[Shaw66]

On 9/25/2024 at 11:41 AM, Logic said:

Deja Vu all over again...
 

 

I haven't had a chance to post about this until now. I think it's right on the money. I caught some heat about my post a week or two ago about how the Bills are better prepared than most teams at the start of the season. I think this DVOA data is some of the evidence.

 

It's not that the Bills win every game at the beginning of the season; it's just that they're ahead of most teams in terms of their preparation for the season. It's especially true because McDermott spends all year trying to build a team that can play multiple ways - run, pass, blitz, stuff the run - he wants his teams to be good at everything. The result is that when the season begins and he starts game planning, he has more tools available. Good passing teams haven't perfected their passing yet, good running teams haven't perfected their running. But the Bills already know how to stop anything - that's what they prepare for. 

 

Later in the season, the Bills are still multiple in that ways, but then they're running into teams that actually have perfected some aspect of their game, running or passing or whatever. At that point, being versatile is quite as useful. 

 

The test for McDermott has been - and it's a test he hasn't yet perfected consistently - is to continue to be able to use the Bills' versatility in game plans that shut down things that teams have gotten really good at, because that's what they find in the playoffs. 

 

However, I'm encouraged about later in the season, because at least so far it looks like Brady has created the passing attack that McDermott wants - a passing attack that is good at taking whatever the defense gives them. I thought the first few plays against the Jags were telling. Either the first four pass plays, or four the first five, all attacked the flat. Josh took the snap and barely thought about going downfield because he knew from what he had seen that the Jags were leaving the flat unprotected. So, over and over, Josh just threw it out there and let the receiver take ten easy yards. Eventually, the Jags tightened up that weakness, but it just created weaknesses elsewhere, and Josh was ready when that happened. What we saw was really efficient offense, whatever it was that the defense tried to do.  

[PoundingDog]

I'm not sold on the coaching staff perfection in the post season. During the long regular season, yes and I have posted my belief that credit to MerDermott's tight run ship for early season successes. In post season, I think everything you do is open book, teams pretty much know what you can and cannot do. It comes down to execution - let's face it all playoff teams are pretty good in that department, injuries - that's luck, and difference makers - I'm talking about HOF level plays that Cover 1 people termed "above the scheme".

 

The Bills had no luck last couple of years, but they certainly lacked number of people who can play "above the scheme."  The Chiefs consistently had Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, and Hill while he was there do that in the playoff, plus a few guys a game here and a game there. In the playoffs, the Bills got consistent performance from Allen, a game from Davis, that's about it. I believe the Bills brass recognized that and brought in Von, but he's hurt the last 2 years and contributed nada.

 

So far this young season, we see some great signs: Allen looked to be taking another step. Von is trending back to his old form. A few young players offers some great promise (I might call Shakir is playing above the scheme right now). We need some luck on injury of course; I'm not relying on Milano being back, not even Johnson/Bernard back to form, just no more serious injury going forward. Keep an eye on Von. To the outsiders, I think people are afraid of Von being a true force coming to the playoff time for us, just like we are all afraid what Rogers might do for the Jets in the playoff time. Von has consistently played above the scheme in his career, and the Bills are sorely missing such a guy on defense in the past.  

[machine gun kelly]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:19 PM, Logic said:

This. It's actually been a REMARKABLY consistent pattern:
 
Early season: "First in DVOA! We look amazing! Which hotel near the Super Bowl stadium should I book a room at?"
Early to mid season: injuries hit, offense and/or defense stagnate, a few last minute Billsy losses mount, "fire McDermott" threads start
Mid season: Galvanizing moment or game (sometimes related to a players only meeting and/or bye week), team strings together a bunch of wins
Late season: Team rides into the playoffs on a multi-game win streak, everyone says "we're peaking at the right time!" (defense may or may not be decimated by injury)

Playoffs: Mahomes rips out our heart and throws it into the compost bin and does the Griddy with Brittany and Jackson and Taylor while Kermit-talking his way through his Super Bowl MVP victory speech.

I swear, you can set your watch to it.

I didn’t know how to send a laugh and I agree Emoji at the same time, but as always Logic, spot on.  We’ve had a similar pattern each year, but maybe the injury gods we’ll sine on us and we get through it.

 

Im still reticent in my hope for the season so let’s just say cautious optimism.  Get through the Ravens and Jets, and I’ll be much more convinced.

[DapperCam]

Feels a lot more sustainable this year for some reason. I think it’s because we are winning with the lines and relying less on Allen making chicken salad out of chicken sh**.

[MikeSpeed]

I am excited at how we have started. It looks and feels different. The next 2 weeks are important, but it's the Jets game on Monday night that will be the gage for me as to whether this team is truly different. They got the weird jaguar monkey off their backs, but the Jets D always gives us issues especially at new jerseys. 

[Goin Breakdown]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

Gotta love this board.  

 

Latest narrative is now in place...that they had so much roster turnover in the off-season that this start is even more amazing.  I can see that line getting used if there's a downturn.  

 

And then there's the old stand-by of injuries.   From 2020-2022 they lost almost no significant starters beside Tre (later 2021), Hyde (2022) and Miller (later 2022).  No one on offense of note was hurt last year, but you wouldn't know it because when a starter goes down you can set your clock to someone bemoaning injuries and citing it for poor play.  As if one guy getting hurt (other than Josh) long-term is enough.     

 

In other words, if they play well it's incredible because of roster turnover and injuries.  But if they don't, well, they had to deal with roster turnover and injuries.

 

Tails I win.  Heads you lose.   

I think it's fair to be happy that a team is winning despite injuries or "bad things" happening. It's also fair to acknowledge that yes we had starters, all pro starters missing in some very important games. Example I would have loved to see Milano and Bernard at LB vs KC last year rather than Kline. They harassed Kline and it shows on film. 
it may also be fair that not all people claiming one side of the coin are the same people that are also claiming the other, but I think it's fair to see it both ways. 
I just not a black or white person. There is a lot of gray in life. 

Edited 40 minutes ago by Goin Breakdown

[nedboy7]

Interesting take by our hated Nick Wright.  He compares the 20-22 Chiefs to the 22-24 Bills.  I can see it start a huge fight on here. Overall a good listen. 

 

 

 

[JohnNord]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:45 PM, zow2 said:

The old Tony Dungy saying is that you want to be playing your best football in December/Jan (or after Thanksgiving).   The Bills absolutely did that last season, and I think in the 13 seconds year, and Still lost to KC!

It almost doesn't matter.  Just win the elimination games.  There will be some adversity this season, there always is for every team. Obviously you can't have injuries to your top guys.

You can argue they were playing their best football last season as well.  Ultimately the difference in their loss was injuries and a “superstar” WR and K that failed in the clutch