Week 4 - Bills at Ravens Game Week Thread

[Sierra Foothills]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:27 PM, Gman10 said:

We have three tough games ahead of us on the road. Lee I would love to be able to win two of them.

 

Who's Lee?

 

On 9/24/2024 at 10:02 PM, DapperCam said:

I’m pretty sure we’ll win, but I have this gut feeling that Likely is going to get like 110 yards and a TD.

 

You're playing him in fantasy this week, aren't you?

 

23 hours ago, stuvian said:

This is not the Ravens D of old. I think Knox and Kincaid are too much for their LBs to cover. I'm curious to see how much respect they give our run game.

 

I think Roquan Smith can cover any tight end.

 

16 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I think they need to scrap the full time nickel for this game and play a 3rd LB.

 

I'm pretty nervous about Cam Lewis' ability to tackle. It's still a glaring weakness in his game.

 

15 hours ago, Logic said:

Just saw the stat from Sal C that the Ravens have given up 16 pass plays of 20+ yards this season: MOST in the NFL.

Plays will be there for the taking in the passing game. If the OL continues to keep Josh upright and comfortable, I like the Bills' chances of putting up a lot of points on Sunday night.

 

11 hours ago, Cray51 said:

I like this matchup for the Bills.  Ravens have good perimeter defenders with Hamilton, Humphrey, Wiggins, Williams, etc.  However, I'm not sold on their d-line and backer core.  Smith is good, but I think we run the ball down their throat and guys like Kincaid and Knox will be open.

 

The Ravens defense looks awesome on paper... Madubuike, Pierce, Oweh, Roquan, Trent Simpson, Van Noy, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams...

 

It's hard for me to believe that this is an easily exploitable defense. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[zow2]

i was at the last Bills at Ravens game and i recall it was rainy from the remnants of a hurricane that had hit the coast.  Same thing thing Sunday night, and i’ll be there.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

[colin]

18 hours ago, Mango said:

If they go 3-0 and then beat KC a few weeks later they’ll be hands down Super Bowl favorites by a wide margin. 
 

But talking about it and doing it are totally different things.

 

Baltimore is the biggest test so far by quite a bit. 

 

 

the ravens are a bad matchup for us.  a physical run game with lots of speed and misdirection when you throw in lamar, TEs who can pressure the middle, and some speed on the outside.  their d looks weaker than last year, but that ship can be righted pretty quickly.  to win this we will need allen to have another strong game, and we need our banged up d to still somehow play on their heads.

 

our advantage might be our line play.  i am concerned that our DL is better at pass rushing than shutting down the run, but getting penetration vs baltimore will be a big help.  on OL, i think josh can be kept clean enough and they can get the running going to set up play action and stay ahead of the sticks.

 

does anyone know if baltimore is still a heavy man coverage D?  josh's left hand might limit him, but him running vs man ds is such a cheat code, if they are gonna be in man he will have to run for first downs and scores.

 

this game i think will give us a really good measure of what this team is made of.  if we go into bmore on sunday night and show out like our last 10 quarters of football, even with the injuries and newer pieces on O not having as much time together, i think it shows this team is as good or better than it has been than any since allen got here, and it puts us in afc 1 seed contention.  

[RichRiderBills]

20 minutes ago, colin said:

 

 

the ravens are a bad matchup for us.  a physical run game with lots of speed and misdirection when you throw in lamar, TEs who can pressure the middle, and some speed on the outside.  their d looks weaker than last year, but that ship can be righted pretty quickly.  to win this we will need allen to have another strong game, and we need our banged up d to still somehow play on their heads.

 

our advantage might be our line play.  i am concerned that our DL is better at pass rushing than shutting down the run, but getting penetration vs baltimore will be a big help.  on OL, i think josh can be kept clean enough and they can get the running going to set up play action and stay ahead of the sticks.

 

does anyone know if baltimore is still a heavy man coverage D?  josh's left hand might limit him, but him running vs man ds is such a cheat code, if they are gonna be in man he will have to run for first downs and scores.

 

this game i think will give us a really good measure of what this team is made of.  if we go into bmore on sunday night and show out like our last 10 quarters of football, even with the injuries and newer pieces on O not having as much time together, i think it shows this team is as good or better than it has been than any since allen got here, and it puts us in afc 1 seed contention.  

 

 

Meh. Ravens have not proven to be a bad matchup to us as we've either played them tight or beat them under McD. 

 

I guess the argument is a big tough team should find opportunities against a smaller nickel type D loaded w undersized guys. 

 

I'm not so sure that holds up though, as the Bills D line are a nightmare, hard core penetrators, and our system works well vs mobile QBs. Everyone is playing physical and hard, and Ravens O still has some limitations. 

 

Benford and Douglas very versatile and playing lights out versus all sorts of talent. 

 

 

[Chandler#81]

 

[starrymessenger]

On 9/25/2024 at 1:02 AM, DapperCam said:

I’m pretty sure we’ll win, but I have this gut feeling that Likely is going to get like 110 yards and a TD.

Lamar and Henry are major weapons in the run game but they are known quantities that we have managed to defend in the past. In the passing game they rely on their TEs a lot. This guy Likely worries me. Haven't seen a lot of him but he looks like a great player in his breakout year. He just looks a cut above the rest when on the field in the way great players do. I think he's becoming a big time playmaker. We better not sleep on him.

[colin]

21 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

 

Meh. Ravens have not proven to be a bad matchup to us as we've either played them tight or beat them under McD. 

 

I guess the argument is a big tough team should find opportunities against a smaller nickel type D loaded w undersized guys. 

 

I'm not so sure that holds up though, as the Bills D line are a nightmare, hard core penetrators, and our system works well vs mobile QBs. Everyone is playing physical and hard, and Ravens O still has some limitations. 

 

Benford and Douglas very versatile and playing lights out versus all sorts of talent. 

 

 

 

I like your confidence, but the bookies have us as road dogs for a reason: baltimore has had a bad start this season but have a pretty strong record the prior two seasons, and the bills have lost games by just making mistakes and playing down to competition.  Also, in the past 4 seasons have gotten trucked by good running teams.

 

to me, this game is a test more than anything -- if the bills are as for real as the team stats show so far, then it will go as you said.  Im not sure personally, but im a ptsd impacted life long bills fan!

[RichRiderBills]

10 minutes ago, colin said:

 

I like your confidence, but the bookies have us as road dogs for a reason: baltimore has had a bad start this season but have a pretty strong record the prior two seasons, and the bills have lost games by just making mistakes and playing down to competition.  Also, in the past 4 seasons have gotten trucked by good running teams.

 

to me, this game is a test more than anything -- if the bills are as for real as the team stats show so far, then it will go as you said.  Im not sure personally, but im a ptsd impacted life long bills fan!

 

The Bills have not gotten trucked by top running teams. We have a solid record against them. Plz look at stats. Sounds like you are firing from the hip there. 

 

This was a point of emphasis and a stat discussed going into playoffs the past couple seasons. Bills do well vs running teams and do well versus top ranked defenses. 

 

Yes, I know we got killed by the Colts a couple years ago....the data says otherwise in terms of trends. 

 

 

[Cray51]

7 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The Ravens defense looks awesome on paper... Madubuike, Pierce, Oweh, Roquan, Trent Simpson, Van Noy, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams...

 

It's hard for me to believe that this is an easily exploitable defense. I hope I'm wrong.

 

I've watched two of their games this year, Madubuike hasn't looked as good as last year, Oweh has been bleh, Roquan has been disappointing (especially in coverage).

 

I mentioned their secondary is daunting, but that's where  I like that this Bills offense has been so comfortable using short passing and mismatches.  Target these linebackers who are better at playing downhill, and then when they drop the safeties down, you take your shots overtop.

 

It's not a cakewalk, but I'm not "worried" per say playing them

[GASabresIUFan]

Lets face it, whether we win or lose this game it will be all about Lamar.  If we lose the headline will be "Lamar gives MVP performance as Ravens hand Bills first loss."  If we win the headline will be "Bills get win despite heroic effort from reigning MVP Lamar Jackson."

[WideNine]

16 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

The Bills have not gotten trucked by top running teams. We have a solid record against them. Plz look at stats. Sounds like you are firing from the hip there. 

 

This was a point of emphasis and a stat discussed going into playoffs the past couple seasons. Bills do well vs running teams and do well versus top ranked defenses. 

 

Yes, I know we got killed by the Colts a couple years ago....the data says otherwise in terms of trends. 

 

 

 

We have a solid front DL, but they present challenges with their read option with Henry.

 

If he gets past that first level he has the size to run over our back 7.

 

I think they will move the chains better than other teams we have faced for no other reason than many teams may decide the best defense is just keeping Allen off the field.

 

I expect this to be a drug-out slug fest and tight down to the wire simply because of the Ravens wanting to dominate TOP.

 

We will see.

 

 

[DapperCam]

46 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Lamar and Henry are major weapons in the run game but they are known quantities that we have managed to defend in the past. In the passing game they rely on their TEs a lot. This guy Likely worries me. Haven't seen a lot of him but he looks like a great player in his breakout year. He just looks a cut above the rest when on the field in the way great players do. I think he's becoming a big time playmaker. We better not sleep on him.

Likely just seems super athletic and huge. The kind of player that gives defenses problems. Almost won the Chiefs game single-handedly (just missed by a toe).

 

If we had Taron Johnson then I think we could lock him up. But he’s out, and this guy will likely have a nice day for himself.

[colin]

31 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

The Bills have not gotten trucked by top running teams. We have a solid record against them. Plz look at stats. Sounds like you are firing from the hip there. 

 

This was a point of emphasis and a stat discussed going into playoffs the past couple seasons. Bills do well vs running teams and do well versus top ranked defenses. 

 

Yes, I know we got killed by the Colts a couple years ago....the data says otherwise in terms of trends. 

 

 

 

we got trucked by tenn before as well, two times (a few yeas back, true).  we got trucked by a bradyless ne team in the wind storm game, we got trucked by indy.  while they didn't do it ground only, kc trucked us nicely in the last playoff game, and cinci trucked us in the prior year loss with their back up OL dominating out DL and getting mixon a bunch of production.

 

we have a small d, we play nickle and dime almost always, and our top 2 LBs are out.  all of this is a good reason to doubt the bills will shut down the ravens run game.  i certainly hope they do, and think it might be different this year, but the reality is while the bills d has sick stats on average, there are enough games where they fold to create concern.

[Low Positive]

I don't know how some of you people get out of bed in the morning.

[WideNine]

26 minutes ago, colin said:

 

we got trucked by tenn before as well, two times (a few yeas back, true).  we got trucked by a bradyless ne team in the wind storm game, we got trucked by indy.  while they didn't do it ground only, kc trucked us nicely in the last playoff game, and cinci trucked us in the prior year loss with their back up OL dominating out DL and getting mixon a bunch of production.

 

we have a small d, we play nickle and dime almost always, and our top 2 LBs are out.  all of this is a good reason to doubt the bills will shut down the ravens run game.  i certainly hope they do, and think it might be different this year, but the reality is while the bills d has sick stats on average, there are enough games where they fold to create concern.

 

Getting up on teams masks a lot of deficiencies in run D.

 

Dallas last year was this ferocious pressure defense until the Bills unmasked them for what they were... a team that simply cannot stop the run and we never let them get up on us so kept pounding it at them with a lot of success.

 

I think this will be a tough test for the Bills.

 

If we can get up on them early it could flip the script, but prepared for a more back and forth nail-biter.

 

 

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a person that hasn't watched a single snap of our team. They probably haven't even looked at the box score. Four entire quarters this year, literally 1/3 of our total game time, we have not actively been trying to score points. Gee I wonder why we've been running the ball so frequently? This is like people who throw out that stat that teams who have more rush attempts tend to win more often. They have the correlation backwards.

 

The Bills haven't embraced any particular style of offense. The Dolphins are weak up front so we went with a run heavy game plan. The Jags have a poor pass defense so we passed on 75% of plays in the 1st half when the game wasn't over yet. The only thing Joe Brady has embraced is high percentage plays and gameplanning for the specific opponent.

 

Blows my mind that people like this get paid to write this stuff. You'll find better analysis from any random poster on this board, for free.

 

 

Dude you scared me. I seen this and I was like "I wouldn't write that."  Then I'm thinking am I crazy and have an alter personality. I mean I do get mood swings sometimes. Then I click it just to see it wasn't some funky bug where the message board misquoted or something and realize oooohhh it was a portion of one of those dumb "analysts" write ups.

 

I was sold on Brady after last week. Its the first OC Josh has had that actually game plans against an opponents weakness instead of just running the same stuff every week. I remember with like Dorsey or even Daboll we were thinking ok this team is bad against the run but great against the pass.  Do you think we would run the ball that week?  Nope, bombs away.

Edited September 26 by Scott7975

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

 

LOL

 

They made McGovern look like Forrest Gump when he was at the White House after winning the National Championships.  I must have drank me about 15 Dr. Pepper's...