Week 4 - Bills at Ravens Game Week Thread

[RunTheBall]

13 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

EPA is newer to me. I dont really understand how all that stuff works yet. I know there are a couple people around here that probably do, so hopefully they will answer.

Bruce Nolan does a really nice job of explaining EPA vs Adjusted EPA on his podcast today. IMO, Nolan has one of the best Bills related podcasts for the fan that is distinctly different than Cover 1, Marino, etc. He’s a smart dude that hits on some esoteric topics instead of just X’s and O’s

 

Essentially, Adjusted EPA takes away from the QB’s EPA when the YAC is a lot more than expected. So if Josh throws a 5 yard slant, and the expected YAC after that slant is say 7 more yards, but Shakir takes it to the house with 40 yard of YAC, Josh doesn’t get credited for that extra 40 yards. It’s attempting to adjust the QBs EPA to his involvement in the play as opposed to inflating his EPA because he made an “easy” throw and the receiver ran for a ton of YAC

Edited 1 hour ago by RunTheBall

[pennstate10]

Not exactly sure where to put this. But it’s a pretty good Twitter follow. 
 

 

[mannc]

56 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Bruce Nolan does a really nice job of explaining EPA vs Adjusted EPA on his podcast today. IMO, Nolan has one of the best Bills related podcasts for the fan that is distinctly different than Cover 1, Marino, etc. He’s a smart dude that hits on some esoteric topics instead of just X’s and O’s

 

Essentially, Adjusted EPA takes away from the QB’s EPA when the YAC is a lot more than expected. So if Josh throws a 5 yard slant, and the expected YAC after that slant is say 7 more yards, but Shakir takes it to the house with 40 yard of YAC, Josh doesn’t get credited for that extra 40 yards. It’s attempting to adjust the QBs EPA to his involvement in the play as opposed to inflating his EPA because he made an “easy” throw and the receiver 

What’s the name of his pod?

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, jcamm1966 said:

We are due for a clunker, plus Balt needs it more. I want wins vs Hou and NYJ than the Ravens.

Saying 27 to 20 Ravens

 

This is what the darkness within tells me as well.

 

Except that McD's defenses have done well against Lamar, historically/anecdotally, and I think Baltimore's defense is trash this year.

 

Strongly agree with the Hou + Jets sentiment, however. If the Bills are gonna win 2 of next 3, I DEFINITELY want those 2 to be Hou and NYJ. 

[Scott7975]

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Florio and Simms are picking the Ravens.  So you can feel better. 

I feel like simms has picked against the bills every game this year. 

[Beck Water]

On 9/24/2024 at 3:40 PM, Sweats said:

Ravens are going to be hungry for the win.....this one makes me nervous.

 

Let's be real: they all make you nervous.

In the most recent 3 games they played, McDermott has been very good at containing the Ravens offense.  But, the most recent game was 2022; that was under Greg Roman.  We have not played the Ravens offense under Todd Monken.  IMO (others will disagree), it's a better passing offense now and Lamar Jackson has undergone an evolution in his passing abilities (as Josh did).

 

Derrick Henry, while not the juggernaut he was in Tennessee 2019-2022, is still a formidable player.  It's a real question how well our undersized LB will be able to cope.

 

10 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I feel like simms has picked against the bills every game this year. 

 

Simms picked against the Bills vs Cardinals and Dolphins, but picked the Bills against the Jags.  

Edited 11 hours ago by Beck Water

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

At the very least, I feel like the Bills finally built the offense in a way where they should be able to handle bad weather better.  A nasty O Line, run game and solid TE play.  But agree, the rain could draw from our passing advantage.

 

Also larger targets in the passing game who block well downfield.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

32 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Let's be real: they all make you nervous.

In the most recent 3 games they played, McDermott has been very good at containing the Ravens offense.  But, the most recent game was 2022; that was under Greg Roman.  We have not played the Ravens offense under Todd Monken.  IMO (others will disagree), it's a better passing offense now and Lamar Jackson has undergone an evolution in his passing abilities (as Josh did).

 

Derrick Henry, while not the juggernaut he was in Tennessee 2019-2022, is still a formidable player.  It's a real question how well our undersized LB will be able to cope.

 

 

Simms picked against the Bills vs Cardinals and Dolphins, but picked the Bills against the Jags.  

I love when these guys pick against us because they’ve been hypin our opponent up for weeks,we win, and then they’re like ehhh not a quality win the opponent wasn’t good 😂

On 9/24/2024 at 4:40 PM, Sweats said:

Ravens are going to be hungry for the win.....this one makes me nervous.

One team being ‘hungrier’ has gotta be the most overblown thing in sports lol especially football where there’s so few games that every one is crazy important for every team 

Edited 11 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[The Helmet of]

31 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Let's be real: they all make you nervous.

In the most recent 3 games they played, McDermott has been very good at containing the Ravens offense.  But, the most recent game was 2022; that was under Greg Roman.  We have not played the Ravens offense under Todd Monken.  IMO (others will disagree), it's a better passing offense now and Lamar Jackson has undergone an evolution in his passing abilities (as Josh did).

 

Derrick Henry, while not the juggernaut he was in Tennessee 2019-2022, is still a formidable player.  It's a real question how well our undersized LB will be able to cope.

 

 

Simms picked against the Bills vs Cardinals and Dolphins, but picked the Bills against the Jags.  

His take was JAX is very good but Bills would escape with a victory…

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, The Helmet of said:

His take was JAX is very good but Bills would escape with a victory…

Our starters did escape the game early so he was pretty close 🤣

[Bimmer323i]

Man I really really hope we blow the Ravens out just like we did to the Jags… First the consensus was we’re gonna take a step back this year and now it’s well they really haven’t played anyone good yet… So what if we blow the Ravens out is it gonna be well the Ravens aren’t as good as we thought they were… Please gimme a break.. P.S .And that phony fake **** Chris Simms needs to stay off our band wagon cause he’s nothing but hater and doesn’t know his ass from a hole in the ground…

[Special K]

Happy I can finally focus on the Bills game this weekend after dealing with Hurricane Helene.....60 mph wind gusts here in the Orlando area over 250 miles from the center of the storm!!

 

I lost power......for 10 seconds....just long enough to say "Dammit" real loud before it went back on. I honestly can't believe it went back on that fast.

 

I hope our other Florida Bills fans have made it through the storm as safely as possible.....I know this storm will be a disaster for the Florida Big Bend area.....this state just can't catch a break from these damn Hurricanes!🤢

Edited 10 hours ago by Special K

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Let's be real: they all make you nervous.

In the most recent 3 games they played, McDermott has been very good at containing the Ravens offense.  But, the most recent game was 2022; that was under Greg Roman.  We have not played the Ravens offense under Todd Monken.  IMO (others will disagree), it's a better passing offense now and Lamar Jackson has undergone an evolution in his passing abilities (as Josh did).

 

Derrick Henry, while not the juggernaut he was in Tennessee 2019-2022, is still a formidable player.  It's a real question how well our undersized LB will be able to cope.

 

 

Simms picked against the Bills vs Cardinals and Dolphins, but picked the Bills against the Jags.  

Every year people keep saying Lamar improved as a passer. Every year it’s the same passing results. He is the same Lamar. 

[bill8164]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

What’s the name of his pod?

it's called the Bruce Exclusive.

[nucci]

9 hours ago, jcamm1966 said:

We are due for a clunker, plus Balt needs it more. I want wins vs Hou and NYJ than the Ravens.

Saying 27 to 20 Ravens

why are we due? That makes no sense

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

Speaking of the spread some love video, anyone else ever order a Blue Light and be looked at like you have a third arm?  Ordered one where I’m at recently, and the bartender had no idea what I was ordering, said he’d never heard it called that.  What else would I call it?

[FLFan]

12 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Why do so many of you worry about what anyone outside of Buffalo thinks about our team? There’s so much bellyaching about what the narrative will be if we win or lose. Who cares what the national narrative is? No one knows our team like we do. They’ve gotten narratives wrong for years.  All we need is another W no matter how we get it. Josh has said straight up the only trophy he cares about is the Lombardi and that’s music to my ears. MVP is meaningless as evidence by Lamar getting it last year. 

 

Maybe Baltimore should worry about getting out played physically by us instead of so many of you guys worrying about the “dominant” Ravens rush offense. We’ve been bullying teams for 3 straight games. McD has already demonstrated he has the scheme to limit Lamar. All we have to do is execute.

 

Henry is on the downside of his career. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and I respect him as a runner but he’s not the threat he used to be. Our D-line vs their O-line should be our advantage and we’ve got penetrators, which is exactly the type of D-line that slow Henry down. Henry isn’t running wide and if he does, we will stuff him with our DBs coming up. It’s between the tackles he does his damage so penetrate the backfield, timely run blitzes, and gang tackle if he gets through.

 

As for Lamar, that’s pretty simple. McD contains the rush on him like we did Murray and he’ll try and play middle field closed. Lamar is going to make plays but if you force him to throw outside instead of over the middle he’s much less effective.

 

Yeah we could lose, but if we play our game (physical on both sides of the line, limit TOs and low penalties) it’s a 2 score win.

 

Go Bills!

Sorry, but racking up 275 yards rushing against Dallas is not all that impressive.  Their rush defense sucks.  I think the Bills are actually more physical on both sides of the ball.  

[MikePJ76]

The Yankees took Care of business vs Baltimore and now it’s the bills turn.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by MikePJ76