Week 4 - Bills at Ravens Game Week Thread

[YattaOkasan]

17 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Undersized second string linebackers facing a stiff test on a Sunday night roadie … anticipating our toughest test thus far.  Cautiously optimistic. 

RAS says both our backups are bigger than the starters.  So as far as size only we should be ok.  However, I do worry about their processing.  Thankfully the thing they do best (though Dorian has continue to take a step in coverage) is come down hill against the run.

9 hours ago, appoo said:

I do think this is the week where the Bills injuries catch up to them. You're asking Baylon Spector, Dorian Williams and Cam Lewis with the slowest set of safeties in the NFL to contain Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Isiah Likely and Derrick Henry? Nah man that ain't it.  Not even McDermott witchcraft is going to have consistent success here.

 

For the Bills to win this way, I think they need to goto a grind offense to protect their defense, and then defensively just be opportunistic, and hold them to FGs in the Red Zone.  If they Bills want to have a truly good game defensively then Ed Oliver, AJE, DJ, Austin Johnson, and Groot are going to have to have elite games on 1st and 2nd down, so they can unleash Von on 3rd and long.  

 

Offensively Spencer Brown is gonna have his biggest challenge yet with Odafe Oweh who looks like he's taken the leap. This is a DE with legit 4.3 40 speed who's currently got an 84.8 grade on PFF.  If Brown can handle him on his own that's gonna be huge - but good chance he's gonna need help

Derrick Henry I feel fine against.  We have answered that question before and it feels like penetration from the DL is critical (as you mention) to slow him down so the rest of the team can get him down. 

 

As for the slowest set of safeties they managed to limit the leagues fastest set of skill players in miami just fine.  I will acknowledge this is a slightly different problem because baltimore will happily stay with the run but it wont be "speed" that gets us.  I worry more about processing from the second level when its play action.  That said we sorta played a very similar offense (but with better outside weapons) week 1.  Conners and that run game is very efficient and Kyler is probably the closest to Lamar's skill set.  I think they are too good to be stopped but I think we have played a very similar offense.  

5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Who's the 3rd LB, Morrow or Andreessen? And who would play SAM? 

 

 

If you scrap nickel, it has to be morrow right?  Still need to cover either or andrews or likely in the middle.  I think we stay with Lewis.

Edited yesterday at 02:35 PM by YattaOkasan

[Motorin']

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

RAS says both our backups are bigger than the starters.  So as far as size only we should be ok.  However, I do worry about their processing.  Thankfully the thing they do best (though Dorian has continue to take a step in coverage) is come down hill against the run.

Derrick Henry I feel fine against.  We have answered that question before and it feels like penetration from the DL is critical (as you mention) to slow him down so the rest of the team can get him down. 

 

As for the slowest set of safeties they managed to limit the leagues fastest set of skill players in miami just fine.  I will acknowledge this is a slightly different problem because baltimore will happily stay with the run but it wont be "speed" that gets us.  I worry more about processing from the second level when its play action.  That said we sorta played a very similar offense (but with better outside weapons) week 1.  Conners and that run game is very efficient and Kyler is probably the closest to Lamar's skill set.  I think they are too good to be stopped but I think we have played a very similar offense.  

If you scrap nickel, it has to be morrow right?  Still need to cover either or andrews or likely in the middle.  I think we stay with Lewis.

 

Their 12 or 13 personnel might do some damage in the run game against our base nickel. 

 

If we had Bernard at Mike and Spector at SAM I could see it. But that's a big ask for Morrow or Buffalo Joe. 

 

Alternatively, they could move Rapp to play SAM and use Edwards or Ingram at FS. 

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Their 12 or 13 personnel might do some damage in the run game against our base nickel. 

 

If we had Bernard at Mike and Spector at SAM I could see it. But that's a big ask for Morrow or Buffalo Joe. 

 

Alternatively, they could move Rapp to play SAM and use Edwards or Ingram at FS. 

Agree Spector at SAM with Bernard at Mike is the best way for us to run 3 LB.  I agree big ask for those two.  I would just stick with Lewis who is playing well and probably will continue to work so he can actually get a contract after this year (all the backups doing money signs after making any plays makes me chuckle)

[Robert Paulson]

15 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

not in the last game under the lights.

 

Titans fans and fantasy football owners alike could only watch in dismay as the Bills limited running back Derrick Henry to one of his worst rushing performances of his NFL career on "Monday Night Football."

 

Buffalo did not shrink from the primetime stage, winning 41-7 and limiting Henry (who did not play in the fourth quarter) to 25 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (a 1.92 yard-per-carry average). Those represent the 14th-fewest and sixth-lowest totals of his career, respectively.

 

 

I totally don't remember that game. I thought our last game was the failed qb sneak game.

[buffblue]

25 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I totally don't remember that game. I thought our last game was the failed qb sneak game.

Even in that 2021 game the Bills had Henry bottled up except for one long run. His stat line was 20 carries for 143 yards but 76 came on one play. Otherwise 19-67 is pretty ordinary at less than 4 ypc. 

[YattaOkasan]

31 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I totally don't remember that game. I thought our last game was the failed qb sneak game.

Lol the last game was very top of mind going into the Jags game cause it the whole situation was eerily similar (losing 2 straight away from home in frustrating fashion before an early season MNF game).  

[Cash]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

we have the best QB playing at a very high level. Why the hell would we go to a grind offense? How about we score a lot to protect the defense?

 

Agreed!  Ravens look scariest when they play 2 TE with Henry in the backfield, and they can run Henry, run Lamar, or do playaction.  But they take Henry out when they're in passing mode.  If we get up 2 scores, I think we see more Justice Hill than Henry.

 

I don't care how much time we take, or whether it's on the ground or through the air, but the priority on offense should be scoring TDs every time out.

[RichRiderBills]

Yeah this notion of "hunger" or desperation is overrated. 

 

Ravens are a good tough team, that's what scares me. I think we match up well against them, we've also played them very tough.

 

Ultimately, we're a good tough team as well. I don't expect a letdown 

[Logic]

 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Yeah this notion of "hunger" or desperation is overrated. 

 

Ravens are a good tough team, that's what scares me. I think we match up well against them, we've also played them very tough.

 

Ultimately, we're a good tough team as well. I don't expect a letdown 

 

Yep.  It's execution more than anything.

Just now, Logic said:

 

 

He is correct but in previous years, we relied a lot on the big play.  

Now we are methodical and taking what the defense gives us.  

This could be different.

[2003Contenders]

Historically, under McD, the Bills defense has done a pretty good job of containing Lamar. Of course, that was with some combination of Milano/Edmunds/Bernard playing LB, so we will have to see. I wonder if they stick with the usual 2 LB set-up with possibly Bishop (given his size/speed combination) asked to play sort of a 'tweener role. Given that he is a rookie, that may be asking a lot of him.

 

Even with the injuries, the Bills' defense has played quite well since the 2nd half against Arizona. Some of that could be due to the level of competition. Given that the Bills' defense has been very opportunistic, I imagine that the Ravens will want to play ball-control and keep it on the ground with Henry and Lamar and mix in occasional passes to the TEs (they now have 3 guys involved). The Ravens will have some success doing this, so the key for the Bills will be to bend-but-don't-break, contain them as best they can and hunker down in the redzone. Forcing the Ravens to settle for field goals will not be a bad outcome on a drive-by-drive basis. If they can continue to force turnovers, even better. If the Bills can somehow get up by multiple scores, I don't think this Baltimore offense is built to come back with guns a'blazing.

 

With the Ravens' pass defense being their weakness so far, Josh is going to need to continue to play at a high level and make some big plays in order for the Bills to come out ahead. But he also needs to continue to be smart and avoid the temptation to become "hero" Josh if he doesn't have to. The worst thing that could happen is to fall behind and start turning the ball over on the road against a good team like the Ravens. And, even if they are not having success running the ball (which could be the case, as the Ravens do sport a top run D), they shouldn't get away from it completely as it does set up so many other things that the offense wants to do.

[Nineforty]

16 hours ago, Rockinon said:

I watched some of the Ravens last game. A few times Lamar would fake a handoff to Henry. The defense came crashing down to stop Henry but Lamar would keep it go untouched for 10yds.  It's a dangerous dual threat that the Titans didn't have. It's going to be a game of deception. Our defense will need to be sharp defending this running attack.

 

We should try scoring on 5 straight touchdowns again. Might help stopping the run. 

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Just saw the stat from Sal C that the Ravens have given up 16 pass plays of 20+ yards this season: MOST in the NFL.

Plays will be there for the taking in the passing game. If the OL continues to keep Josh upright and comfortable, I like the Bills' chances of putting up a lot of points on Sunday night.

Messed with the stats yesterday. Removed the 16 big plays and the yardage. I was rushing it but beyond those they still were between 21 and 25 in yards given up on passing. 

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

Who's the 3rd LB, Morrow or Andreessen? And who would play SAM? 

 

 

Big safety hidden dimel. Maybe not immediately but I expect when Bishop is back to play a 2 high hidden dime with the extra safety moving to MLB

[Scott7975]

They all picking against us again...

 

Democrat and Chronicle: Ravens 23, Bills 17

Sal Maiorana writes: "With the Steelers off to a 3-0 start, the Ravens are already two games behind in the AFC North and as one of the highly-rated Super Bowl contenders going into the season, they can’t continue to keep stumbling. They’re coming off a nice win in Dallas, and they’re at home so they’ll take care of business."

 

The Arizona Republic: Ravens 24, Bills 20

Jeremy Cluff writes: "If the Ravens can get to 2-2 after the 0-2 start, it will be a great sign for the rest of their season. We think the defense will be key in beating the Bills."

 

The Sporting News: Ravens 23, Bills 20

Vinnie Iyer writes: "The Bills have been having fun running the ball to support Josh Allen in their diverse and balanced offense. The Ravens can be relentless running at a high level with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that's how to attack Buffalo's defense. Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore's back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him."

 

Sports Illustrated: Ravens

Iain MacMillan writes: "It's time to sell high on the Bills. They have got off to an unbelievably strong start to the season, but I believe we're going to see some regression from this team in the coming weeks. A road game against the Ravens could be the time for exactly that to happen. Despite being 1-2, the Ravens rank fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play and their offense is averaging a blistering 6.6 yards per play, the best mark in the NFL. More important than the Ravens' offense is their defense, specifically their ability to stop the run. The Ravens have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL by 0.7 yards per rush. That's going to be a tough challenge for a Bills team that has embraced the run this season, running at a top five rate amongst all teams. I'll take the Ravens in this must-watch Sunday Night Football showdown."

 

CBS Sports: Ravens 23, Bills 20

John Breech writes: "It took three weeks, but the Ravens have finally figured out how to win games: They just need to run the ball. ... With Derrick Henry, the Ravens offense is basically a freight train that's rolling down the tracks at full speed, and not many teams have a strong enough defense to slow down a freight train. The Bills have struggled to stop the run this year, surrendering an average of 118.3 yards per game and that number is likely only going to get worse after this showdown on Sunday night. The Bills are coming off a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 3, which is definitely an advantage for the Ravens. 

 

ESPN: Bills win

ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Bills a 56.7% chance of winning the game.

 

Dimers: Ravens 25, Bills 22

Dimers states: "After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bills a win probability of 41%, while the Ravens have a win probability of 59%."

Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 30 years.

[WotAGuy]

With all the talk this week of the Bills’ streak of not losing by more than 6, it would seem this is the week that will happen. 
 

Fortunately, I’m betting the Ravens -6.5, so that should negate it. 

[RiotAct]

43 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

 

I don't care how much time we take, or whether it's on the ground or through the air, but the priority on offense should be scoring TDs every time out.

isn’t that ALWAYS the priority?

 

[Motorin']

13 minutes ago, boyst said:

Messed with the stats yesterday. Removed the 16 big plays and the yardage. I was rushing it but beyond those they still were between 21 and 25 in yards given up on passing. 

Big safety hidden dimel. Maybe not immediately but I expect when Bishop is back to play a 2 high hidden dime with the extra safety moving to MLB

 

Right now, I'm guessing Edwards is next man up at S. And probably would have been starting next to Rapp had he not been injured. But I'm hopeful that Bishop can get up to speed so we see what he has...

 

I also think the nickel (or safety) that lines up at the LB position will typically occupy the SAM spot to cover the TE on passing plays. 

 

So we'll probably see Cam Lewis there in heavy sets. Unless they start getting destroyed in the run game. 

[BigAl2526]

Buffalo knows how to defend Derrick Henry.  They also know how to defend Lamar Jackson.  They have never had to defend against both at the same time.  That complicates matters.  I'm picking the Bills to win, but it will be a chess game.   I don't think that Baltimore can stop the Bills' offense.  

[Logic]

17 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They all picking against us again...

 

Democrat and Chronicle: Ravens 23, Bills 17

Sal Maiorana writes: "With the Steelers off to a 3-0 start, the Ravens are already two games behind in the AFC North and as one of the highly-rated Super Bowl contenders going into the season, they can’t continue to keep stumbling. They’re coming off a nice win in Dallas, and they’re at home so they’ll take care of business."

 

The Arizona Republic: Ravens 24, Bills 20

Jeremy Cluff writes: "If the Ravens can get to 2-2 after the 0-2 start, it will be a great sign for the rest of their season. We think the defense will be key in beating the Bills."

 

The Sporting News: Ravens 23, Bills 20

Vinnie Iyer writes: "The Bills have been having fun running the ball to support Josh Allen in their diverse and balanced offense. The Ravens can be relentless running at a high level with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that's how to attack Buffalo's defense. Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore's back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him."

 

Sports Illustrated: Ravens

Iain MacMillan writes: "It's time to sell high on the Bills. They have got off to an unbelievably strong start to the season, but I believe we're going to see some regression from this team in the coming weeks. A road game against the Ravens could be the time for exactly that to happen. Despite being 1-2, the Ravens rank fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play and their offense is averaging a blistering 6.6 yards per play, the best mark in the NFL. More important than the Ravens' offense is their defense, specifically their ability to stop the run. The Ravens have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, the fewest in the NFL by 0.7 yards per rush. That's going to be a tough challenge for a Bills team that has embraced the run this season, running at a top five rate amongst all teams. I'll take the Ravens in this must-watch Sunday Night Football showdown."

 

CBS Sports: Ravens 23, Bills 20

John Breech writes: "It took three weeks, but the Ravens have finally figured out how to win games: They just need to run the ball. ... With Derrick Henry, the Ravens offense is basically a freight train that's rolling down the tracks at full speed, and not many teams have a strong enough defense to slow down a freight train. The Bills have struggled to stop the run this year, surrendering an average of 118.3 yards per game and that number is likely only going to get worse after this showdown on Sunday night. The Bills are coming off a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 3, which is definitely an advantage for the Ravens. 

 

ESPN: Bills win

ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Bills a 56.7% chance of winning the game.

 

Dimers: Ravens 25, Bills 22

Dimers states: "After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bills a win probability of 41%, while the Ravens have a win probability of 59%."

Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 30 years.

Perfect. Love it.

I'd prefer the Bills be underdogs in all remaining games, and that experts always pick against them.

This team irrefutably plays better when they're underdogs and can play the "no one believes in us" card. It's been proven year after year.

As for the predictions themselves, I just think it's funny that everyone has the Bills scoring 20, when Baltimore is allowing an average of 26 points a game and the Bills are scoring an NFL best 37.3 points per game.

When the #1 PPG offense in the NFL goes against the #26 PPG defense....it's gotta results in the Bills scoring a season low 20 points, right? Weird.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]