Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes: The changing of the guard?

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You are transported back to 2020 and given the choice of the following trades:

 

1) Mahomes for Allen

 

or

 

2) Chris Jones for Ed Oliver, Travis Kelce for Dawson Knox, and the Chiefs coaching staff for the Bills coaching staff

 

Which do you select?

 

Well, that makes its sort of stark...

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Simon said:

 

Well, that makes its sort of stark...

 

It makes it obvious. But it is very hard to get some people to understand that QBs are responsible for maybe 25% of their team's success. Now for the most part the other 75% that makes up a team's success isn't all that different from team to team, so that 25% is absolutely a BIG piece of what defines a team because of the higher variance. But when QBs are fairly equal between one team and another, the other 75% is what makes the ultimate difference.

[US Egg]

5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

AFC player of the week can't go to a Bills player 3 weeks in a row though.

 

Going to Jayden Daniels for beating a sad Cincy team.

Jacksonville looks sadder.

[Simon]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

It makes it obvious.

 

"Sharply clear" is one of its definitions

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It makes it obvious. But it is very hard to get some people to understand that QBs are responsible for maybe 25% of their team's success. Now for the most part the other 75% that makes up a team's success isn't all that different from team to team, so that 25% is absolutely a BIG piece of what defines a team because of the higher variance. But when QBs are fairly equal between one team and another, the other 75% is what makes the ultimate difference.

People see football as just two qbs 1v1ing eachother haha it’s ridiculous.  They’re not even facing the same defense.  
 

our playoff game against the chiefs was a perfect example…one qb was facing a healthy defense with arguably the best defensive player in the league, and one qb was facing a defense with a 9th string linebacker to pick on.  One of those qbs jobs was way more difficult that day 

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

They've been 1a and 1b for almost 5 years now, with Mahomes maintaining a slight edge.

But Josh Allen has passed Patrick Mahomes and is currently the best QB on planet Earth.

That is all.

You are 100% right, but there is zero chance that the media or general public recognizes this any time soon. Hell, they didn’t even give him the full Monday night treatment on ESPN. They gave him 15 minutes after our game, and then shifted focus to the Bengals game.  

[Mikie2times]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It makes it obvious. But it is very hard to get some people to understand that QBs are responsible for maybe 25% of their team's success. Now for the most part the other 75% that makes up a team's success isn't all that different from team to team, so that 25% is absolutely a BIG piece of what defines a team because of the higher variance. But when QBs are fairly equal between one team and another, the other 75% is what makes the ultimate difference.

I mean, this is based on no actual evidence. While things like full season QBR are highly correlated with a teams winning % void of any other data. 

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

You are 100% right, but there is zero chance that the media or general public recognizes this any time soon. Hell, they didn’t even give him the full Monday night treatment on ESPN.

 

It's good to not care about them. 

[BigDingus]

No changing of the guard yet. The Bills have always had good starts in September, so the doubters won't be so ready to anoint him above Mahomes.

 

This upcoming 3 game road stretch will determine Josh's MVP candidacy. 

 

Ravens

Texans

Jets

 

All on the road, all AFC rivals, all have media members predicting them as Super Bowl reps. 

 

If Allen plays well during this stretch & the Bills can go 2-1, he'll be the MVP favorite. If the Bills lose 2 or 3 of those games & Allen turns the ball over a bunch, he will be on the outside looking in.

[JerseyBills]

FACTUAL 💯💯🫡

 

Best QB walking the earth 

[HappyDays]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

I mean, this is based on no actual evidence. While things like full season QBR are highly correlated with a teams winning % void of any other data. 

 

You can get there with basic logic. Let's say a team's success is 40% offensive roster, 35% defensive roster, 10% special teams, 15% coaching. In that scenario if you want to say a QB is worth 60% of the offense's success then you are saying a QB is 24% of his team's success. Feel free to quibble with these numbers but I doubt you'll argue with the overarching point and logic I'm using.

 

Like I said this doesn't mean QBs aren't extremely important. A single player having a 25% impact on their entire team is ridiculous value actually. And that's why QB stats correlate with wins. But if you're talking about two individual teams the QB alone is not going to be the difference. Especially not in effectively a three game sample size which is what separates Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs.

 

Easier way to say it is that QBs are responsible for a plurality of their team's success but not the majority. That's why my hypothetical trade example kind of ends the discussion if you're being honest with yourself. Mahomes vs Allen does not explain the Chiefs success vs the Bills success in recent years.

[Ray Stonada]

Passer rating through 3 games, 2024 Season:

 

Josh Allen: 133.7

Patrick Mahomes: 89.9

 

Josh is putting every ball on the money. He's really spinning it out there, even on short throws.

 

 

[Simon]

4 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

Josh is putting every ball on the money. He's really spinning it out there, even on short throws.

 

 

 

It must be like playing against a guy who won't stop throwing trip 20's 

 

[QB Bills]

A good litmus test of who knows sports and who doesn't is the "who's has more rings bro?" argument.

 

To those of you who pick team accomplishments to grade individual players, enjoy your simple, non-nuanced lives.

[Simon]

9 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

enjoy your simple, non-nuanced lives.

 

Is it ironic that they unknowingly will? 

[Alphadawg7]

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Patrick has had a better support system over his entire career than Josh. That is the only difference in these 2 qbs. They are "athletically" identical in every way. Give Josh Andy, Spags, Jones, Kelce & Hill and he has 3 rings too. McDermott is a very good coach but Andy is substantially better.  This combination of Brady/ Babich might be Josh's best support system yet.

[Figster]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

One handed

[Sierra Foothills]

The question of who is better is absolutely legitimate however as others have suggested, changes in consensus opinion happen much after the fact. Josh surpassed Mahomes last year but people might realize it 2 years from now.

 

To me a better question is: Who do you want quarterbacking your favorite football team?

 

Personally the answer to that question is that it's not even close.

 

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Josh surpassed Mahomes last year but people might realize it 2 years from now.

 

This might very well be true; at the least it's debatable enough that I wouldn't disagree with it.

But seeing it carry over into this year and currently be so clear has made it real enough to declare without equivocation, imo.