Josh Allen, committed singles hitter (The Athletic)

[hondo in seattle]

24 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen's at 4.7 air yards/attempt thus far 2024

 

he was at 4.4 in 2023

 

im not bringing these stats up to be argumentative. all im saying is there isn't much evidence for this huge overhaul of the offense into some short pass efficiency machine...fwiw through two games Allen is 12th in passes that travel 10+yards and 30th in attempts.

 

 

We seem to be getting our data from different sources. 

 

According to NextGenStats (using "Average Intended Air Yards" - the average air yards on all passing attempts, not just completions), here are Josh's numbers:

 

2022:  9.4

2023:  8.6

2024:  7.4

 

According to this, Josh is throwing shorter passes now.  Which seems to be a general league-wide trend though some QB are still slinging the rock downfield.  Our next opposing QB, Trever Lawrence, is averaging 11.0 air yards per attempt this season thus far.  

But, to your point, it's only two games.  

 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is 'cos Kurt shoulders up is one of the best Quarterbacks to have played. He never threw a beautiful spiral. He never had a great arm. But he knew how to play.

Kurt is one of the most underrated QBs of all time IMO.  
 

You give me a playoff game or Super Bowl to win and I can choose Peyton or Warner, I’m taking Warner.  

[ProcessImproverMan]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Kurt is one of the most underrated QBs of all time IMO.  
 

You give me a playoff game or Super Bowl to win and I can choose Peyton or Warner, I’m taking Warner.  

Dude really got robbed in that Super Bowl vs the Steelers. 

[hondo in seattle]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Shakir has caught 28 targets in a row.  That’s not 28 catchable balls with no drops.  That’s 28 passes that went his direction.  Allen has a 100% comp rate to Shakir in his last 28 attempts.  
 

So I think we can lock Shakir into that now as many of those were not easy throws or catches. 
 

Now Kincaid is no Gronk yet as a receiver, but he has shown he can be very good already with a high ceiling.  And of course way too soon to know about Coleman yet.  
 

But overall, Allen has a good group to execute this style of offense including having that all important RBs who can catch out of the backfield that were so important to those Pats and Chiefs offenses too.  
 

And keep in mind, Brady’s first 3 SBs (over 4 years too), including over what was then the best offense in NFL history the first one they won, had a group of weapons that would be considered bottom of the league.  

 

I think one thing that made Brady impressive is that he could succeed regardless of the circumstances.  If had a bad offensive line, for example, he'd make a good presnap read, decide who to throw the ball to, and get the ball out in 2.1 seconds.  If he had Randy Moss, he'd air the ball out.  If he didn't have deep threats, he'd successfullly dink and dunk down the field.  He factored in the strengths and weaknesses of both his team and the opponent and played appropriately.  Not all QBs have the temperament or talent to do that.

[appoo]

11 hours ago, Rubes said:

It's also why you gotta hit the big ones when they're available. I'd like to see Josh hit those more...the miss to MVS didn't ultimately hurt, but that's the kind we really need him to hit when it's there.

 

I’m already over MVS.

Josh has thrown the ball just 42 times.  Need a much better sample size before we can draw any conclusions

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, ProcessImproverMan said:

Dude really got robbed in that Super Bowl vs the Steelers. 

 

Warner certainly got robbed by James Harrison. As I've said before, the "routine" swing pass or screen pass is not as easy to complete as a lot of people think.

 

As far as yards per attempt, a lot of people misconstrue exactly what it means. YPA has more to do with completion percentage than it does depth of target.

 

[Thurman#1]

"It could also explain why safeties were so devalued in free agency last winter. Safeties lost more than $100 million in shed salary during the offseason, according to Over The Cap. Great ball skills from the safety position aren’t as valuable as they once were. "

 

Great point.

[ChasBB]

20 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777845/2024/09/19/nfl-quarterbacks-short-pass-trend/

 

Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

 

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

...

This is great!  To complete the analogy, the average scoring drive in the NFL (according to chatgpt) is 2 to 3 1st downs per scoring drive.  So, let's just round it up to 3 1st down for scoring drive.  Now, simply think of 1st base, 2nd base & 3rd base as 1st downs and home plate as a TD or FG.  Maybe you can "steal a base" here or there with a nice intermediate pass or the occasional home run or deep pass, when it's there, but otherwise you're just trying to grind for the next 1st down (the next base).  Thanks for sharing this.

Edited September 20 by ChasBB
Clarity

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Warner certainly got robbed by James Harrison. As I've said before, the "routine" swing pass or screen pass is not as easy to complete as a lot of people think.

 

As far as yards per attempt, a lot of people misconstrue exactly what it means. YPA has more to do with completion percentage than it does depth of target.

 

 

 

YAC too, probably an even bigger effect.

 

 

Edited September 20 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

as has Chiefs offensive production

 

 

But not Super Bowl titles.

 

And when offensive production drops but Super Bowl titles don't, you're doing something right, not wrong.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Except in the playoffs unfortunately where they seem to score whatever they need to score.

 

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

where probably not coincidentally his ypa goes up

 

Well, first, no. Mahomes' YPA goes down in the playoffs. It's 7.64 in the playoffs and 7.9 in the regular season.

 

More specifically and recently ...

 

2021 season YPA   7.4

2021 playoffs YPA   8.7

 

2022 season YPA   8.1

2022 playoffs YPA   7.0

 

2023 season YPA   7.0

2023 playoffs YPA   7.0

 

See a trend as the two deep shells came in and things started to change?

 

Edited September 20 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Shakir has caught 28 targets in a row.  That’s not 28 catchable balls with no drops.  That’s 28 passes that went his direction.  Allen has a 100% comp rate to Shakir in his last 28 attempts.  
 

So I think we can lock Shakir into that now as many of those were not easy throws or catches. 
 

Now Kincaid is no Gronk yet as a receiver, but he has shown he can be very good already with a high ceiling.  And of course way too soon to know about Coleman yet.  
 

But overall, Allen has a good group to execute this style of offense including having that all important RBs who can catch out of the backfield that were so important to those Pats and Chiefs offenses too.  
 

And keep in mind, Brady’s first 3 SBs (over 4 years too), including over what was then the best offense in NFL history the first one they won, had a group of weapons that would be considered bottom of the league.  

 

 

Yup. Not to mention Beasley.

 

Amazing stat, 28 targets in a row. Geez!

 

[CSBill]

20 hours ago, Draconator said:

That was a really good read. Thanks for that! 

 

I can't afford the 50 cents. Let me know what they are saying.

[finn]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I think one thing that made Brady impressive is that he could succeed regardless of the circumstances.  If had a bad offensive line, for example, he'd make a good presnap read, decide who to throw the ball to, and get the ball out in 2.1 seconds.  If he had Randy Moss, he'd air the ball out.  If he didn't have deep threats, he'd successfullly dink and dunk down the field.  He factored in the strengths and weaknesses of both his team and the opponent and played appropriately.  Not all QBs have the temperament or talent to do that.

As much as I despise Brady's character and smirky ratface, I have to agree with you. He adapted to the strengths and weaknesses of the team around him and had success with a wide range of team types. That's pretty impressive.

 

It's just a shame he was (and is) a whiny, self-important, cheating, lying, fatuous POS. (Full disclosure: I lived in New England during his entire career.)

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, finn said:

As much as I despise Brady's character and smirky ratface, I have to agree with you. He adapted to the strengths and weaknesses of the team around him and had success with a wide range of team types. That's pretty impressive.

 

It's just a shame he was (and is) a whiny, self-important, cheating, lying, fatuous POS. (Full disclosure: I lived in New England during his entire career.)

 

Tell us how you really feel....

[balln]

Yea well this cute and all. 
 

But I watched Kirk cousins final drive. And I watched all of Roger’s game last night.

 

and I gotta admit I’ve never seen Josh Allen look like that. Calm cool collected. No running around crazy. Staying in pocket and delivery consistent accurate catchable balls. 
 

Those guys were in complete command. No mistakes. Clean game 
 

So until we get Josh to look like that consistently and in the big moments … gonna be the same team 

 

I think he looked like the above when Daboll was here and it was early season- giants and jets games. And then Beasley dropped a ball up for an INT. Also a game vs Seattle

[Matt_In_NH]

I love this..........exciting is exciting but sometimes boring is what is needed to win.

[ganesh]

On 9/19/2024 at 5:57 PM, mushypeaches said:

This growing trend probably explains why Denver drafted a noodle arm like Bo Nix.  

 

The catch is - the guy actually needs to be able to throw downfield successfully in order to keep defenses honest

Not required.   What is required is for the noodle arm to be accurate and hit a high % of passes.  The WC offense is all over the craze again

[Sierra Foothills]

48 minutes ago, balln said:

I watched Kirk cousins final drive. And I watched all of Roger’s game last night and I gotta admit I’ve never seen Josh Allen look like that. Calm cool collected. No running around crazy. Staying in pocket and delivery consistent accurate catchable balls. Those guys were in complete command. No mistakes. Clean game. So until we get Josh to look like that consistently and in the big moments … gonna be the same team. I think he looked like the above when Daboll was here and it was early season- giants and jets games. And then Beasley dropped a ball up for an INT. Also a game vs Seattle

 

This is one of the most inaccurate things I've ever read on this board.

 

Edited September 20 by Sierra Foothills

[Buffalo4Life01]

50 minutes ago, balln said:

Yea well this cute and all. 
 

But I watched Kirk cousins final drive. And I watched all of Roger’s game last night.

 

and I gotta admit I’ve never seen Josh Allen look like that. Calm cool collected. No running around crazy. Staying in pocket and delivery consistent accurate catchable balls. 
 

Those guys were in complete command. No mistakes. Clean game 
 

So until we get Josh to look like that consistently and in the big moments … gonna be the same team 

 

I think he looked like the above when Daboll was here and it was early season- giants and jets games. And then Beasley dropped a ball up for an INT. Also a game vs Seattle

I mean Josh does ONLY have 13 4th qrt comebacks and 19 game winning drives under his belt.  We can do so much better!!