Josh Allen, committed singles hitter (The Athletic)

[Alphadawg7]

51 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

you misunderstand my argument

 

that the offense can 'struggle' and still put up 36pts and over 400 yards is testament to the idea that big plays help mitigate variance

 

and again...you make my point for me. the shot to diggs if completed likely wins the game. if the throw to shakir is completed you likely win the game. we need to stop being so results oriented and realize you need more of those plays, not fewer

 

Relying on the big play is what got us sent home multiple times, caused mid season slumps for 3 consecutive years, etc.  

 

Meanwhile Pats and Chiefs have built dynasties doing the opposite.  

[Scott7975]

This is why for the last two seasons I have been banging the drum that we need guys that can get good YAC.  We never had any. Dink and dunk offense is fine if you have guys that can do that.  Not so much if you have guys catch the ball and only get a couple yards. There is less room for error when you are playing this way. It leads to a lot of 3rd and long plays and thats where it leads to mistakes, being short of sticks, sacks, fumbles, ints, etc.

 

I like the offense thus far except never taking that shot on 2nd and 1.  Also could mix it up more on first downs.  I do think the Bills will eventually run into some teams that this just doesnt work on.  The run game will get stuffed.  I hope we still have the ability to open it up when that happens.

Edited September 19 by Scott7975

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Mahomes has one of the highest yards/attempt of all time

Which has been dropping since the Cover 2 shells have become more the norm.

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Which has been dropping since the Cover 2 shells have become more the norm.

as has Chiefs offensive production

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

as has Chiefs offensive production

 

Except in the playoffs unfortunately where they seem to score whatever they need to score.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Except in the playoffs unfortunately where they seem to score whatever they need to score.

where probably not coincidentally his ypa goes up

[Just Jack]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Relying on the big play is what got us sent home multiple times, caused mid season slumps for 3 consecutive years, etc.  

 

Meanwhile Pats and Chiefs have built dynasties doing the opposite.  

 

I vaguely recall that's how Brady and the Pats would beat us, little 3-5 yard passes and runs to get down the field with a big play thrown in there from time to time.  

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Which has been dropping since the Cover 2 shells have become more the norm.

 

Mahomes through 2 games has an 8.3 ypa this season. That's in-line with previous seasons save for 2023

 

And one thing I've learned here is you can draw conclusions after 2 games.   

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Mahomes through 2 games has an 8.3 ypa this season. That's in-line with previous seasons save for 2023

 

And one thing I've learned here is you can draw conclusions after 2 games.   

basing these very speculative assumptions on 2 games (which i have to assume they are) when Allen is actually throwing for career highs in both ypa and ANY/A lol

[hondo in seattle]

What was interesting to me is that McD chose to convey the singles story to Allen which supports the idea, promoted by some here, that McD wants Allen to change.  He's clearly asking Allen to be happy with singles and not swing for the fences so much. 

 

Which is probably the same thing Kurt Warner and Tom Brady would tell him, based on their public comments.  

[ProcessImproverMan]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Relying on the big play is what got us sent home multiple times, caused mid season slumps for 3 consecutive years, etc.  

 

Meanwhile Pats and Chiefs have built dynasties doing the opposite.  

Patriots also had Welker, Edelman, Gronk, etc who were guaranteed first downs on third down. Brady often threw to wide open guys or guys who could simply out muscle people (Gronk) who never really dropped passes. 

 

I'm still waiting to see Bills receivers be that automatic on third down. Shakir is starting to look like that. That catch while getting cheap shotted in a crowd by Poyer was amazing. Kincaid has shown flashes. Kincaid and Coleman need to step up to be that. 

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

What was interesting to me is that McD chose to convey the singles story to Allen which supports the idea, promoted by some here, that McD wants Allen to change.  He's clearly asking Allen to be happy with singles and not swing for the fences so much. 

 

Which is probably the same thing Kurt Warner and Tom Brady would tell him, based on their public comments.  

Kurt warner has one of the highest YPA of all time

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Kurt warner has one of the highest YPA of all time

 

That is 'cos Kurt shoulders up is one of the best Quarterbacks to have played. He never threw a beautiful spiral. He never had a great arm. But he knew how to play.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is 'cos Kurt shoulders up is one of the best Quarterbacks to have played. He never threw a beautiful spiral. He never had a great arm. But he knew how to play.

He was also throwing to probably the greatest collection of offensive talent ever assembled

[hondo in seattle]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Kurt warner has one of the highest YPA of all time

 

Yes, that's true.  And Kurt has said that Allen needs to get the ball out on schedule to whoever the play was designed for instead of waiting for a bigger play downfield.  

 

This is one of the things that made Kurt successful.  He intelligently took what was given.  Sometimes that was the long ball.  But if the play was designed to go underneath, or if the D took the long ball away, he happily threw the short stuff.  

 

Efficiency and YAC, more than air yards, will earn you a good YPA.   That's why Josh is at 8.8 yards per attempt this season versus  his career mark of 7.2 (and better than Warner's career mark of 7.9).  

 

 

[Ralonzo]

10 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

Two sports he loves…you don’t hit singles in golf, lol

 

Au contraire, the birdies are fun but the routine pars are where it's at if you want to score.

[GoBills808]

55 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Yes, that's true.  And Kurt has said that Allen needs to get the ball out on schedule to whoever the play was designed for instead of waiting for a bigger play downfield.  

 

This is one of the things that made Kurt successful.  He intelligently took what was given.  Sometimes that was the long ball.  But if the play was designed to go underneath, or if the D took the long ball away, he happily threw the short stuff.  

 

Efficiency and YAC, more than air yards, will earn you a good YPA.   That's why Josh is at 8.8 yards per attempt this season versus  his career mark of 7.2 (and better than Warner's career mark of 7.9).  

 

 

Allen's at 4.7 air yards/attempt thus far 2024

 

he was at 4.4 in 2023

 

im not bringing these stats up to be argumentative. all im saying is there isn't much evidence for this huge overhaul of the offense into some short pass efficiency machine...fwiw through two games Allen is 12th in passes that travel 10+yards and 30th in attempts.

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Another interesting thing about this article is that it makes clear that you don’t really need good safeties to play these shell defenses. It’s probably why the team feels fine with Hamlin and rapp back there on our end.

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Relying on the big play is what got us sent home multiple times, caused mid season slumps for 3 consecutive years, etc.  

 

Meanwhile Pats and Chiefs have built dynasties doing the opposite.  

This right here ^^^
 

its not that you don’t throw some long balls, you just have to realize that those are low completion percentage plays, if you can’t run the ball when you want to, and hit the chain moving passes you’re gonna struggle against the better teams come the playoffs, is what it is.  Like it or not. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, ProcessImproverMan said:

Patriots also had Welker, Edelman, Gronk, etc who were guaranteed first downs on third down. Brady often threw to wide open guys or guys who could simply out muscle people (Gronk) who never really dropped passes. 

 

I'm still waiting to see Bills receivers be that automatic on third down. Shakir is starting to look like that. That catch while getting cheap shotted in a crowd by Poyer was amazing. Kincaid has shown flashes. Kincaid and Coleman need to step up to be that. 

Shakir has caught 28 targets in a row.  That’s not 28 catchable balls with no drops.  That’s 28 passes that went his direction.  Allen has a 100% comp rate to Shakir in his last 28 attempts.  
 

So I think we can lock Shakir into that now as many of those were not easy throws or catches. 
 

Now Kincaid is no Gronk yet as a receiver, but he has shown he can be very good already with a high ceiling.  And of course way too soon to know about Coleman yet.  
 

But overall, Allen has a good group to execute this style of offense including having that all important RBs who can catch out of the backfield that were so important to those Pats and Chiefs offenses too.  
 

And keep in mind, Brady’s first 3 SBs (over 4 years too), including over what was then the best offense in NFL history the first one they won, had a group of weapons that would be considered bottom of the league.  

Edited September 20 by Alphadawg7