Josh Allen, committed singles hitter (The Athletic)

[Alphadawg7]

Pats built a dynasty on this and Chiefs are in a mini-dynasty built around this.  Tom Brady has told Allen to do this as well for years now.  

 

Meanwhile the fastest team in history with one of the GOATS at WR and arguably the best set of weapons across the offensive skill positions in the league with a HC that is allegedly an offensive genius can't beat us, teams with a .500 record or win a playoff game.

 

Hmmmm...which offenses should we hope to see more inspiration come from?   

 

Win in the trenches, be able to effectively run the ball, and have a smart set of weapons that can win in the short to mid areas of the field.  This is the way and what Daboll and Dorsey failed to understand.  

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, Andrew Son said:

Beyond that, it's just a lower variance approach.

 

We saw it for years with Brady dinking and dunking down the field.  High flying attacks are exciting but there is more variance in that style.  And when you start talking about a single elimination tournament (the playoffs) I want to minimize variance as one bad game sends you home.

it's actually the opposite

 

i submit our last two playoff games vs the Chiefs as evidence. 13seconds we had won w Allen chucking it all over the field but for the defense and ST

 

last game at home we played small ball and were very lucky that it was within a one score game. the type of pass attack you are advocating for actually leaves you less margin for error, not more...it's very difficult to operate at max efficiency every snap for an entire game

 

 

[Andrew Son]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it's actually the opposite

 

i submit our last two playoff games vs the Chiefs as evidence. 13seconds we had won w Allen chucking it all over the field but for the defense and ST

 

last game at home we played small ball and were very lucky that it was within a one score game. the type of pass attack you are advocating for actually leaves you less margin for error, not more...it's very difficult to operate at max efficiency every snap for an entire game

 

 

I completely disagree.  The Dorsey offense, that you loved, was completely one dimensional and dependent on Josh having a great day to win.  If he had an off day we would likely lose.  13 seconds was an outlier where Josh had a great day and we still lost.

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Andrew Son said:

I completely disagree.  The Dorsey offense, that you loved, was completely one dimensional and dependent on Josh having a great day to win.  If he had an off day we would likely lose.  13 seconds was an outlier where Josh had a great day and we still lost.

 

 

 

 

i haven't 'loved' any of the offenses they've put around Allen since day 1

 

i appreciated the fact that the dorsey 2023 iteration was the only one that deliberately limited his rush attempts

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

i appreciated the fact that the dorsey 2023 iteration was the only one that deliberately limited his rush attempts

I've gone back and forth on that.

 

In theory you clearly want to protect the franchise.  But in those stretches where that was the emphasis the offense struggled.  To the point where the conversation turns to "free Josh" and "they've neutered him."

 

I think it's a weapon that we would be foolish not to use.  I just wish Josh would be smarter and protect himself a bit more.

[GoBills808]

ok hands up- who is Allen more like, Scottie or Bryson

[alton]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That is a great, great comment.  The Bills were so far ahead of their time, they were behind!  

 

It's clear that the Bills have done this purposely.  McDermott, of course, has always loved playing two deep, but he was smart enough to know that he had to mix it up.  The off-season changes in the receiver room made it clear that the Bills were moving to a possession receiving game, too.  

 

The innovative offensive coordinators, particularly the Shanahan tree, will drive offensive evolution for the next year or two, and the creative defensive coordinators will be the guys who give their teams a big edge up.  Shanahan's style, from his father, always featured a solid running game, and we're seeing a resurgence of running around the league.  I was impressed with how the Bills shut down the Miami offense's short game.  Maybe McDermott and Babich will be defensive thought leaders. 

 

The most interesting comment in that article is that teams around the league stopped spending on safeties.  As they move more toward two-deep defensive calls, the skills necessary to play the position narrow, and it's becoming easier to find guys who can play the position.   All you need is enough speed to do your job in the deep zones, and the size and tackling ability to stop the run.  The corners and edge rushers are key as this offensive trend continues.  There were a play or two where Groot dropped into coverage, and he looked pretty comfortable back there.  That's probably the kind of edge guy who will become more important - a guy who has the pass rush moves but can play laterally, to protect the edge and the flats, wherever it's needed. 

 

 

He threw that ball to MVS very well.  It was a good throw - he just missed it a bit.  One of the things I liked about it was that he led MVS a bit across the field, so that the defender wasn't going to have a play on it.  Earlier in his career, Josh didn't do that.  

 

It's important to remember how important familiarity with receivers is. Josh has had only three months with MVS, and MVS missed some time in the summer, too.  Especially with the crowded wide-receiver room they had, that means that Josh hasn't had the kind of reps with MVS that are necessary to have the kind of deep accuracy that makes a QB-receiver tandem deadly. 

I keep seeing posts of his deep throw to MVS being off, but I don't think many are taking into account that it was very windy that day. Hard to throw a deep ball when it's not a line drive. It was so windy that both the Bills and Cards had to have holders for their kickoffs. 

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777845/2024/09/19/nfl-quarterbacks-short-pass-trend/

 

Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

 

 

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

 

Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone. 

 

“It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.”

 

He’s not alone. 
 

It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average. 

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006. 

The trickle-down effect is deflated passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew.

Some of the game’s biggest names — and arms — have been corralled by stingy defenses willing to give up the underneath to protect the over the top. It has forced quarterbacks like Allen to stay patient.

“When we get into the red zone we’ll find more ways to get exotic and score because it is a little harder down there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in harm’s way up until that point.”

Allen’s percentage of throws at or behind the line has doubled from 2021 when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history — 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league. 
 

Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It has successfully slowed not just scoring, but ball movement as well. 

 

 

Tony Gwynn is one of the greatest hitters of all time just hitting singles this is just fine 

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ok hands up- who is Allen more like, Scottie or Bryson

He’s Bryson…Scottie is just super steady…Bryson has a flair for the dramatic that’s Josh 

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it's actually the opposite

 

i submit our last two playoff games vs the Chiefs as evidence. 13seconds we had won w Allen chucking it all over the field but for the defense and ST

 

last game at home we played small ball and were very lucky that it was within a one score game. the type of pass attack you are advocating for actually leaves you less margin for error, not more...it's very difficult to operate at max efficiency every snap for an entire game

 

 

If you want to talk about luck, we were also very unlucky to have so many injuries and the chiefs have so few injuries.

 

It’s also very difficult to stop the chiefs with a bunch of rag tag backups.  
 

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Amazing - the Jauron defense and the Gailey offense have finally taken over the league!!

 

Visionaries those two... Kay Stephenson and Chuck Bullough were also ahead of their times...

 

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it's actually the opposite

 

i submit our last two playoff games vs the Chiefs as evidence. 13seconds we had won w Allen chucking it all over the field but for the defense and ST

 

last game at home we played small ball and were very lucky that it was within a one score game. the type of pass attack you are advocating for actually leaves you less margin for error, not more...it's very difficult to operate at max efficiency every snap for an entire game

 

 

 

Huh?  This isn't evidence, these are just the conclusions you created for yourself from the results of 2 games.  And people forget the context of the 13 seconds game where the offense struggled a large part of the game before a late game shootout that included one of those Davis TD's coming on a 4th and 13 play, a terrible situation for an offense to be in.

 

And last year was an even worse example.  Allen bomb to Diggs...dropped, much harder play to convert both as a QB and the WR.  Then Allen tries to throw a downfield strike to Shakir for a TD but gets his foot stepped on so ball comes up short when he had Diggs running wide open short for what would have bene a first down and could have led to what would have been a game winning TD.  So the dink and dunk would have potentially won the game while the two failed deep shots definitely was a big part of us losing that game.

 

So yeah...these literally do not support the "opposite". 

[Andrew Son]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If you want to talk about luck, we were also very unlucky to have so many injuries and the chiefs have so few injuries.

 

It’s also very difficult to stop the chiefs with a bunch of rag tag backups.  
 

This is the only difference between the teams.  KC was better in the AFCCG matchup.  Since then we’ve been decimated by key injuries and they’ve remained relatively healthy 

[Rockinon]

I think some here are missing a big part of the offensive philosophy. It's not all about Josh, in fact I think it's arguably more about those around Josh. The everyone eats mantra is all about utilizing the skills of every skill player. Every skill player brings something to the table. The way they approaching things, is making the offense more diverse and unpredictable. If you can attack with a RB, a WR, a TE or with Josh using his legs, that puts a great deal of stress on a defense. Thus far, we've seen very little from our TEs but we all know they can be very effective. We're still learning about the potential of our WRs, but because we've been so effective running the ball, they haven't yet had an opportunity to break out. Week to week the matchups will be different and week to week we'll see someone else breaking out and having a big game. It's not just dink and dunk vs the long ball. There's certainly more to it than that.

 

The fact that the OL is winning also should be factored in. These guys are not your skill players, but keeping Josh clean and opening holes for the run is making the job a whole lot easier on the skill players. Lets hope the offense continues to operate at such an efficient and effective level.

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I was a Jaurin apologist but if you look at his rosters, him getting 7 wins out of Edwards, Losman, Anthony Thomas, Kelsay was an amazing coaching job. 
 

along with Allen being patient in the 2 high S look, I do wonder if we ever have the speed to attack vertically anyways. The deep ball really has not been a part of offense.

 

Jauron had an inordinate say into that roster, so he deserves more than his share of blame for those teams.   Of course, it didn't help that those late RW years were notoriously cheap and solid players were replaced with high draft picks.  

 

Agree on the skilled personnel deficit on offense...which is now being built against Josh's strengths.  

 

2 hours ago, Andrew Son said:

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

 

This is what you want to believe.

For example in 2022 according to Warren Sharp's analysis, Josh was t-12th in completion percentage of passes over 20 yards at 38%.  Mahomes was 10th at 41% with Geno Smith leading the league at 49%.  I'd say his accuracy is underrated and yet, still developing.    

 

1 hour ago, Andrew Son said:

Beyond that, it's just a lower variance approach.

 

We saw it for years with Brady dinking and dunking down the field.  High flying attacks are exciting but there is more variance in that style.  And when you start talking about a single elimination tournament (the playoffs) I want to minimize variance as one bad game sends you home.

 

Brady had better offensive weapons, especially after '07 with Moss, Welker, then Gronkowski, et al. which made throwing short to intermediate passes a whole different advantage.    

 

It's why I get tired of seeing posters who sympathize with McD's emphasis on a more risk-averse strategy.  Yeah, throwing the ball downfield is more risky than say running it 50-55% and throwing short more.  But it makes you predictable and defenses adapt.    

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

 

Jauron had an inordinate say into that roster, so he deserves more than his share of blame for those teams.   Of course, it didn't help that those late RW years were notoriously cheap and solid players were replaced with high draft picks.  

 

Agree on the skilled personnel deficit on offense...which is now being built against Josh's strengths.  

 

 

This is what you want to believe.

For example in 2022 according to Warren Sharp's analysis, Josh was t-12th in completion percentage of passes over 20 yards at 38%.  Mahomes was 10th at 41% with Geno Smith leading the league at 49%.  I'd say his accuracy is underrated and yet, still developing.    

 

 

Brady had better offensive weapons, especially after '07 with Moss, Welker, then Gronkowski, et al. which made throwing short to intermediate passes a whole different advantage.    

 

It's why I get tired of seeing posters who sympathize with McD's emphasis on a more risk-averse strategy.  Yeah, throwing the ball downfield is more risky than say running it 50-55% and throwing short more.  But it makes you predictable and defenses adapt.    

Previous seasons we have been among the most pass happy in the league and we were way more predictable and one dimensional 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Huh?  This isn't evidence, these are just the conclusions you created for yourself from the results of 2 games.  And people forget the context of the 13 seconds game where the offense struggled a large part of the game before a late game shootout that included one of those Davis TD's coming on a 4th and 13 play, a terrible situation for an offense to be in.

 

And last year was an even worse example.  Allen bomb to Diggs...dropped, much harder play to convert both as a QB and the WR.  Then Allen tries to throw a downfield strike to Shakir for a TD but gets his foot stepped on so ball comes up short when he had Diggs running wide open short for what would have bene a first down and could have led to what would have been a game winning TD.  So the dink and dunk would have potentially won the game while the two failed deep shots definitely was a big part of us losing that game.

 

So yeah...these literally do not support the "opposite". 

you misunderstand my argument

 

that the offense can 'struggle' and still put up 36pts and over 400 yards is testament to the idea that big plays help mitigate variance

 

and again...you make my point for me. the shot to diggs if completed likely wins the game. if the throw to shakir is completed you likely win the game. we need to stop being so results oriented and realize you need more of those plays, not fewer

[billsherd]

3 hours ago, Andrew Son said:

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

I agree that is not his strength. He can no doubt sling a fast ball deep but "drop it in  the bucket"  throws he does need to work on those passes.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Pats built a dynasty on this and Chiefs are in a mini-dynasty built around this.  Tom Brady has told Allen to do this as well for years now.  

 

Meanwhile the fastest team in history with one of the GOATS at WR and arguably the best set of weapons across the offensive skill positions in the league with a HC that is allegedly an offensive genius can't beat us, teams with a .500 record or win a playoff game.

 

Hmmmm...which offenses should we hope to see more inspiration come from?   

 

Win in the trenches, be able to effectively run the ball, and have a smart set of weapons that can win in the short to mid areas of the field.  This is the way and what Daboll and Dorsey failed to understand.  

Agreed on Brady and Mahomes. MaKermit said about 3 years ago he needed to take 9-12 play drives instead of trying for 5 play drives. The Chiefs parted ways with Hill because they realized the game was changing. IF, and its still a huge if, IF Allen can commit to doing this, we can be nearly unstoppable. That said, he took a bad strip sack Game one because he held onto the ball when he had a guy open.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Agreed on Brady and Mahomes. MaKermit said about 3 years ago he needed to take 9-12 play drives instead of trying for 5 play drives. The Chiefs parted ways with Hill because they realized the game was changing. IF, and its still a huge if, IF Allen can commit to doing this, we can be nearly unstoppable. That said, he took a bad strip sack Game one because he held onto the ball when he had a guy open.

Mahomes has one of the highest yards/attempt of all time

[mannc]

6 hours ago, Coastie said:

Drawing a parallel to a sport Josh Allen clearly loves was brilliant. Tailor the message to the receiver and it is far more effective. They have been telling Allen this for years I am sure but compare a checkdown pass to laying up in golf and it clicks.

Two sports, actually…Golf and baseball