Josh Allen, committed singles hitter (The Athletic)

[dave mcbride]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777845/2024/09/19/nfl-quarterbacks-short-pass-trend/

 

Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

 

 

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

 

Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone. 

 

“It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.”

 

He’s not alone. 
 

It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average. 

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006. 

The trickle-down effect is deflated passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew.

Some of the game’s biggest names — and arms — have been corralled by stingy defenses willing to give up the underneath to protect the over the top. It has forced quarterbacks like Allen to stay patient.

“When we get into the red zone we’ll find more ways to get exotic and score because it is a little harder down there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in harm’s way up until that point.”

Allen’s percentage of throws at or behind the line has doubled from 2021 when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history — 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league. 
 

Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It has successfully slowed not just scoring, but ball movement as well. 

 

 

[Coastie]

Drawing a parallel to a sport Josh Allen clearly loves was brilliant. Tailor the message to the receiver and it is far more effective. They have been telling Allen this for years I am sure but compare a checkdown pass to laying up in golf and it clicks.

Edited 9 hours ago by Coastie

[ToGoGo]

Explains the Mahomes passing chart from last week. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Explains the Mahomes passing chart from last week. 

Lots of good quotes from Mahomes and Trubisky (as well as more from Allen) in the piece.

[mushypeaches]

This growing trend probably explains why Denver drafted a noodle arm like Bo Nix.  

 

The catch is - the guy actually needs to be able to throw downfield successfully in order to keep defenses honest

[HardyBoy]

48 minutes ago, Coastie said:

Drawing a parallel to a sport Josh Allen clearly loves was brilliant. Tailor the message to the receiver and it is far more effective. They have been telling Allen this for years I am sure but compare a checkdown pass to laying up in golf and it clicks.

Two sports he loves…you don’t hit singles in golf, lol

[Rubes]

It's also why you gotta hit the big ones when they're available. I'd like to see Josh hit those more...the miss to MVS didn't ultimately hurt, but that's the kind we really need him to hit when it's there.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Amazing - the Jauron defense and the Gailey offense have finally taken over the league!!

[Andrew Son]

23 minutes ago, Rubes said:

It's also why you gotta hit the big ones when they're available. I'd like to see Josh hit those more...the miss to MVS didn't ultimately hurt, but that's the kind we really need him to hit when it's there.

 

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Amazing - the Jauron defense and the Gailey offense have finally taken over the league!!

That is a great, great comment.  The Bills were so far ahead of their time, they were behind!  

 

It's clear that the Bills have done this purposely.  McDermott, of course, has always loved playing two deep, but he was smart enough to know that he had to mix it up.  The off-season changes in the receiver room made it clear that the Bills were moving to a possession receiving game, too.  

 

The innovative offensive coordinators, particularly the Shanahan tree, will drive offensive evolution for the next year or two, and the creative defensive coordinators will be the guys who give their teams a big edge up.  Shanahan's style, from his father, always featured a solid running game, and we're seeing a resurgence of running around the league.  I was impressed with how the Bills shut down the Miami offense's short game.  Maybe McDermott and Babich will be defensive thought leaders. 

 

The most interesting comment in that article is that teams around the league stopped spending on safeties.  As they move more toward two-deep defensive calls, the skills necessary to play the position narrow, and it's becoming easier to find guys who can play the position.   All you need is enough speed to do your job in the deep zones, and the size and tackling ability to stop the run.  The corners and edge rushers are key as this offensive trend continues.  There were a play or two where Groot dropped into coverage, and he looked pretty comfortable back there.  That's probably the kind of edge guy who will become more important - a guy who has the pass rush moves but can play laterally, to protect the edge and the flats, wherever it's needed. 

 

 

Just now, Andrew Son said:

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

He threw that ball to MVS very well.  It was a good throw - he just missed it a bit.  One of the things I liked about it was that he led MVS a bit across the field, so that the defender wasn't going to have a play on it.  Earlier in his career, Josh didn't do that.  

 

It's important to remember how important familiarity with receivers is. Josh has had only three months with MVS, and MVS missed some time in the summer, too.  Especially with the crowded wide-receiver room they had, that means that Josh hasn't had the kind of reps with MVS that are necessary to have the kind of deep accuracy that makes a QB-receiver tandem deadly. 

[Draconator]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5777845/2024/09/19/nfl-quarterbacks-short-pass-trend/

 

Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

 

 

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

 

Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone. 

 

“It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.”

 

He’s not alone. 
 

It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average. 

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006. 

The trickle-down effect is deflated passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew.

Some of the game’s biggest names — and arms — have been corralled by stingy defenses willing to give up the underneath to protect the over the top. It has forced quarterbacks like Allen to stay patient.

“When we get into the red zone we’ll find more ways to get exotic and score because it is a little harder down there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in harm’s way up until that point.”

Allen’s percentage of throws at or behind the line has doubled from 2021 when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history — 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league. 
 

Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It has successfully slowed not just scoring, but ball movement as well. 

 

 

That was a really good read. Thanks for that! 

[C.Biscuit97]

50 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Amazing - the Jauron defense and the Gailey offense have finally taken over the league!!

I was a Jaurin apologist but if you look at his rosters, him getting 7 wins out of Edwards, Losman, Anthony Thomas, Kelsay was an amazing coaching job. 
 

along with Allen being patient in the 2 high S look, I do wonder if we ever have the speed to attack vertically anyways. The deep ball really has not been a part of offense.

[LABILLBACKER]

If we can win a championship with Josh becoming Rod Carew than so be it. Use the whole field and spread the wealth. 

37 minutes ago, Andrew Son said:

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

This is definitely one of Josh's few flaws. I've been saying his deep throw trajectory is too shallow for years. The 2 misses to mvs had no air under them.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Maybe the best part of this trend for us is it’s tougher for D’s to key on just your 1 or 2 playmakers to try to take them out of the game, like the Hoodie used to always do—it wouldn’t matter much given the Swiss Army knife capabilities we have now? 

[GoBills808]

53 minutes ago, Andrew Son said:

Despite the big arm he’s never been good at that.  Just doesn’t throw a great deep ball.  Not enough arc which leaves little room for error and doesn’t give the WR as much ability to track 

[GASabresIUFan]

This will soften up over the course of the season.  Defenses will creep up to stop the short passes and limit the running opening up 15-20 yard passes to the slot receiver and TE between the fronts 6/7 and the 2 deep safety. 
 

Offense vs defense is cat and mouse.  Teams will stack the box until you prove you can either run through it or pass over it. Start hitting 15-20 yard chunk plays against the stacked box, defenses will put more LBs in coverage opening lanes for the running backs.  The Bills are designed for this ebb and flow especially with the added benefit of teams having to spy on Josh to limit his rushing lanes when things breakdown.  This keeps an extra defender in, allowing better WR/TE matchup. 
 

The more I think about the Brady plan, it seems designed to dominate the middle of the field.  Our best pass receivers are mostly known as inside players, such as Cook, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid and even Coleman.  All can be split out, but all seem to do their best work inside.  
 

I wonder what new wrinkle Brady has in store for Jax.

[boater]

The article seems correct in what I have observed the last couple of weeks--the short pass is king and the long pass is now second fiddle.

 

Well, OK, but that is a bummer. I love the excitement of a deep pass.

 

Another thought: I'm glad the Bills didn't mortgage the future in signing a prototypical WR1 stud. It would have been kind of a waste with the new trend towards the short pass.

[Don Otreply]

Some of us here, have been advocating for this passing strategy for some time now, I guess we are the ones ahead of the curve.  This concept keeps opposing offenses off the field longer and helps wear out the opponent’s defense faster, control the clock and you control the game…, 

[Andrew Son]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Some of us here, have been advocating for this passing strategy for some time now, I guess we are the ones ahead of the curve.  This concept keeps opposing offenses off the field longer and helps wear out the opponent’s defense faster, control the clock and you control the game…, 

Beyond that, it's just a lower variance approach.

 

We saw it for years with Brady dinking and dunking down the field.  High flying attacks are exciting but there is more variance in that style.  And when you start talking about a single elimination tournament (the playoffs) I want to minimize variance as one bad game sends you home.

[Allen2Moulds]

53 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If we can win a championship with Josh becoming Rod Carew than so be it. Use the whole field and spread the wealth. 

This is definitely one of Josh's few flaws. I've been saying his deep throw trajectory is too shallow for years. The 2 misses to mvs had no air under them.

I don't disagree with any of the comments, that he's a little off on his deep ball, but it's not something I'm ever concerned with.  For whatever reason, he always seems to clean it up before the playoffs and makes some pinpoint accurate deep throws in the playoffs.  The one to Diggs had plenty of air underneath it, and there was (2) others I believe went towards Sherfield, but he was unable to make a play on it.