Long-term future of the Bills defensive backfield?

[JerseyBills]

6 hours ago, ganesh said:

I assume Douglas gets that big FA contract.  Elam will move to a starter in his final year.  Ingram, Benford, Hardy will be in the mix for CB position and we will draft a CB in the 1st or 2nd round next year. 

I doubt it's a big contract, he'll be 31 next August, could see him re signing for a reasonable deal depending how they feel about Elam.

[gonzo1105]

My two cents on this is Douglas walks for a contract the Bills are unwilling to pay, they draft a CB with one of their first 3 picks next year and that player is the eventual starter opposite Benford. I dont ever see Elam being that guy here and all the evidence points to that being true. Ingram, while a great story is probably at best a placeholder starter.

[GASabresIUFan]

I’m surprised that no one is talking about the fact that the Bills  really only have Bishop as a safety for next year.  I don’t think Rapp is worth 3.7 next season.  
 

Hamlin and Edwards are FAs.  

[BrooklynBills]

Barring a completely unforeseen scenario where Elam becomes the starting CB this season AND plays at an elite level, there is zero chance that the Bills will pick up the 5th year option on Elam - its a fully GTD $11M+ cap hit on the books for 2026.

 

Next offseason is the first real opportunity to trade him and actually get some cap savings so I imagine that is what is going to happen.

[gonzo1105]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’m surprised that no one is talking about the fact that the Bills  really only have Bishop as a safety for next year.  I don’t think Rapp is worth 3.7 next season.  
 

Hamlin and Edwards are FAs.  

 

I think they are keeping Rapp as the starter. The staff really seems to like him so I expect him and Bishop as the starters next year and 3.7 million is pretty cheap for a starting safety and its clear the Bills feel he's a starter. Thats why I don't mention Safety as a high need next year. Rapp and Bishop with a young mid round draft pick and Cam Lewis or another vet.

[Beast]

Keep drafting. Keep developing. It has been successful to date. 

[Mat68]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’m surprised that no one is talking about the fact that the Bills  really only have Bishop as a safety for next year.  I don’t think Rapp is worth 3.7 next season.  
 

Hamlin and Edwards are FAs.  

Rapp played a ton last season.  Starting now.  Buffalo likes him a lot.  Barring something changing Rapp is in the plan for next season too.  Lewis is mix of slot and safety.  Best of either Hamlin or Edwards could be retained.  If Cine makes it off career life support that would be a depth option too. 

[GASabresIUFan]

Just now, Mat68 said:

 If Cine makes it off career life support that would be a depth option too. 

I almost forgot about him.  He absolutely could be in the mix next season. 

[JP51]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If the Bills planned to extend Douglas they'd have done it last summer. The fact that they left it a one year commitment and just moved money around for cap relief tells me they don't see him as part of the long term plan. Of course that could change but right here, right now, I say they let him walk. 

I agree I think he is walking... I dont know but I get this feeling that they had discussions on extentions with him last year like you said... he seems lukewarm about the team in a way not so much the team, but he has gotten to the point where he is looking for his big contract in FA and if its here great, if not so be it... but not looking to give the old hometown discount at this point. In the end, who can blame him. 

[T master]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

At CB: The starters are Douglas, Johnson and Benford.  Ingram and Lewis are proving to be capable backups at the nickel and dime.  Douglas is a UFA after this season, but carries a dead cap in 2025 is already 4.125 and another 1.375 in 2026 and 2027 if not re-signed.  The primary backup at boundary corner looks to be Elam.  Elam's dead cap if released after this season is 4.356.  Johnson is signed through 2027, but there is an out in 2026.  Benford is signed through 2025 a very cheap rookie deal.  I can see him being extended next off-season.  Ingram (27), is also signed through 2025 and is an RFA in 2026.  Lewis (also 27) is signed though 2025 as well and then a UFA.

 

So what's the plan?  Obviously, Benford, Ingram, Johnson, and Lewis will all return next season.  The question is re-sign Douglas and keep Elam as a backup, or let Douglas walk and give Ingram or Elam a shot at the job.  My guess is Beane re-signs Douglas for a year and trades Elam for whatever he can get.

 

At Safety Hamlin and Rapp are currently starting and they seem to be doing an adequate job.  Bishop and Edwards are now healthy and getting some reps.  Edwards has a one year deal and is an UFA after this season.  Bishop is signed through 2027 on a rookie deal and is the future at safety.  Rapp is signed through 2026 at 3.7 for 2025 and 4 for 2026.  Dead cap to move on is only 1.33 in 2025 and 667K in 2026.   Hamlin is on the last year of his rookie deal and is a UFA.  The only thing I'm certain of here is Bishop will be starter next season.  McBeane can clear the rest out if he unimpressed with some or all of the group at minimal cost.  Is Rapp's play so far worth 3.7 next season?  Would you keep Hamlin?  I suspect this will be Edwards only season here.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Sorry for my ignorants but you lost me ! How can Douglas be a UFA but still carry a dead cap hit for the next 3 seasons 25, 26, & 27 ? I thought if your a UFA your contract is done ... Please splain . Thanks .

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

My two cents on this is Douglas walks for a contract the Bills are unwilling to pay, they draft a CB with one of their first 3 picks next year and that player is the eventual starter opposite Benford. I dont ever see Elam being that guy here and all the evidence points to that being true. Ingram, while a great story is probably at best a placeholder starter.

Yes, Elam is another Ronald Darby at the Bills.  Doesn't fit the system.  He will play in the NFL, however, for 10 years, like Darby.  (at Jacksonville now, I think, after being w the Eagles)

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’m surprised that no one is talking about the fact that the Bills  really only have Bishop as a safety for next year.  I don’t think Rapp is worth 3.7 next season.  
 

Hamlin and Edwards are FAs.  

 

Bills clearly love the potential of Rapp in this defense.  At the very least, they love his potential at his price point.

 

The Safety tandem for the foreseeable future is Rapp/Bishop.  

 

My guess at the Secondary for next year is Johnson/Lewis, Benford/Elam/Ingram, Rapp/Bishop.  Expecting a Defense-heavy draft given the amount of picks we'll have and when looking at the Offense, outside WR.. what are we going to need?   

 

OL, starters and depth, are locked up long term. 

 

RB's, we have our 1-2 punch. 

 

TE's, all good there. 

 

I could see us drafting a WR early again and taking a backup QB at some point, but the rest of these picks will likely be used on the DL, Secondary and then we'll see what LB looks like later this year if/when Milano comes back.  

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, BrooklynBills said:

Barring a completely unforeseen scenario where Elam becomes the starting CB this season AND plays at an elite level, there is zero chance that the Bills will pick up the 5th year option on Elam - its a fully GTD $11M+ cap hit on the books for 2026.

 

Next offseason is the first real opportunity to trade him and actually get some cap savings so I imagine that is what is going to happen.

I expect Elam to be traded during this season.  

[dpberr]

Despite his age, Douglas is the football player for that position in the McDermott defense, and I suspect they will overpay to keep him on a short deal, and if need be, transition him to safety. 

 

His football IQ for zone defense would be difficult, if not impossible, to replace.  He's really like a modern-era Troy Vincent.

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I expect Elam to be traded during this season.  

 

Seems logical if he's CB4, which he probably is at this point.  However, it's likely not due to his ability.. I think he's a good player.. It's just that we have one of the best outside CB tandems in the league and a CB3 who's very good in our system. 

 

But what are we trading him for?  And who's CB4 if we trade him?  We just finished Week 2 and our CB3 is playing Dime DB due to injuries.  Benford hasn't made it through a season without missing some games and Douglas is a 30 year old CB.  

 

[Mango]

10 hours ago, Simon said:

I'm guessing Rasul has an impressive year and the Bills let him walk to somebody for a huge contract, recouping the draft pick they gave up to get him in the form of a compensatory pick.

 

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This is certainly possible, but Beane typically likes stability and I've seen it argued the Douglas could convert to safety at some point.

 

I think @Simon is probably right, but I do think Beane prefers to keep Douglas around. Wasn't it reported that the team was trying to get an extension done before this season? IMO it will depend on his asking price. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Douglas looks like the real deal. True #1 CB. I'd sign him to a 3 year extention 

Benford is nothing special. I'd treat him like they did Wallace and Jackson. Use them while cheap and then move on.

I have no idea what to do with Elam. Probably has no trade value. Probably better to keep him as primary back up next year.

Johnson is the nickel for the next 2 years

Bishop hopefully will be starting soon. Would be a terrible 2nd round miss again if he is not playing soon. Drafting another kid round safety would not be unreasonable next year as Rapp, Hamlin,  and Edwards are just capable starters and not worth long term investment. 

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, T master said:

Sorry for my ignorants but you lost me ! How can Douglas be a UFA but still carry a dead cap hit for the next 3 seasons 25, 26, & 27 ? I thought if your a UFA your contract is done ... Please splain . Thanks .

By converting most of Douglas’ 1 year contract to a bonus, they were able to lower his cap hit from around 8 mill to 3.3 mill.  The remaining money gets amortized over 3 void years, thus the dead cap hits in 25, 26, and 27 even though the player is probably no longer a Bill.  

[GASabresIUFan]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If Douglas wants a pay day? Yes they will. He is 30. If he is willing to do the sort of deal Hyde and Poyer were doing at that stage.... 2 years, moderate cash, spread over 3 years with a void year.... then sure I can see them bringing him back. But based on how last spring happened my guess is Douglas isn't looking for that. He is either looking for a long commitment or a proper pay day. Fair to say from the rumours out there that was one of the less straightforward conversations Beane had with agents last summer. If he has a better 2024 I don't see how that gets any easier?

Like anything else, the answer is it depends. How does Douglas play in the next 15 games? Does Douglas stay healthy? How does Elam play when he gets a chance? What is our cap situation?  Does Douglas want to be here or is the biggest payday his only concern? How big is Benford’s extension? Does McBeane think Elam or Ingram could do the job just as well?  Ultimately this could be a Gilmore situation in that he takes his services to the highest bidder each year.  If so, Beane lets him go, but I don’t think we can say for sure he won’t be back.  You may put the odds close to zero, but I’m more in the 50/50 camp.

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, T master said:

Sorry for my ignorants but you lost me ! How can Douglas be a UFA but still carry a dead cap hit for the next 3 seasons 25, 26, & 27 ? I thought if your a UFA your contract is done ... Please splain . Thanks .

Void years.  Help current cap by spreading the cap payment over years past physical contracted years.