After 2 weeks, Coleman has better win rate/ separation than Worthy and others

[Lost]

8 hours ago, Simon said:

When a person comes in here pretending to be a well-meaning guest looking for honest conversation and then instead is intentionally dishonest just so that he can ridicule his hosts

 

gonna defend @Billl here.  I didn't see anything he posted in this thread as offensive or ridiculing.   I happen to somewhat agree with him to be honest.  

 

 

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

I watched the all22 as well paying close attention to Keon.   In Miami game specifically, He was facing man coverage from Jalen Ramsey almost the entirety of the game.   I would agree with the eye test that he never had much separation that game but still there were at least 5-6 routes I believe Josh could have fed him the ball for relatively easy catches.   Not too bad for facing one of the best corners in the league.     I think receivers who have been playing against zone coverage will have significantly higher average yards of separation.   

[Sweats]

Superbowl!!!

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Not meaning to sully the discussion, but Sky diver maintains that you all missed the boat with the release of Robert 'HoF' Foster. 😢

*
😁

[Captain Caveman]

I'm not sure if this is the same as "Open Target Rate" (I would assume it is)

But if so, all these rookies seem to have some work to do.  In any case it would be interesstig to see how these #s match up to non-rookie receivers.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-top-wide-receivers-open-target-rate-separation-2023

Edited September 18 by Captain Caveman

[Alphadawg7]

14 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Just gonna mention again that Shakir was the only WR who ran an actual route with a reception in our last game. 

Yup and our RB had 3 TD’s and our offense mailed it in the entire second half to chew clock and avoid injuries during a blowout as well.  So people concerned about WR stats this week seem to be over looking a lot of context. 

Edited September 18 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Lost said:

I watched the all22 as well paying close attention to Keon.   In Miami game specifically, He was facing man coverage from Jalen Ramsey almost the entirety of the game.   I would agree with the eye test that he never had much separation that game but still there were at least 5-6 routes I believe Josh could have fed him the ball for relatively easy catches.   Not too bad for facing one of the best corners in the league.     I think receivers who have been playing against zone coverage will have significantly higher average yards of separation.   

 

I agree with that. I think he is a guy you can throw to without him separating a ton and ask him to use his athleticism and body control to box a DB out and make a catch. 

[BADOLBILZ]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with that. I think he is a guy you can throw to without him separating a ton and ask him to use his athleticism and body control to box a DB out and make a catch. 

 

Keon will just need to learn how to come back to the ball against Ramsey......

 

[NickelCity]

56 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You mean the game where our RB had 3 TD’s and our offense mailed it in the entire second half to chew clock and avoid injuries during a blowout?  That game?  

 

Yes, that game. The one about which people arbitrarily complain about Coleman not getting a catch when Hollins and MVS went without, and Samuel caught one ball on a flat/swing whatever you call it play. I think you're misinterpreting my implication.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

 

gonna defend @Billl here.  I didn't see anything he posted in this thread as offensive or ridiculing.   I happen to somewhat agree with him to be honest.  

 

 

Body of work?

 

[Alphadawg7]

58 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Yes, that game. The one about which people arbitrarily complain about Coleman not getting a catch when Hollins and MVS went without, and Samuel caught one ball on a flat/swing whatever you call it play. I think you're misinterpreting my implication.

 

Yup, I totally misunderstood your implication, thats on me.  This makes so much more sense, I thought that was an odd post from you so I was confused.  My bad

 

Note:  I just edited my previous post and fixed the misunderstanding. 

Edited September 18 by Alphadawg7

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Lost said:

I watched the all22 as well paying close attention to Keon. In Miami game specifically, He was facing man coverage from Jalen Ramsey almost the entirety of the game. I would agree with the eye test that he never had much separation that game but still there were at least 5-6 routes I believe Josh could have fed him the ball for relatively easy catches. Not too bad for facing one of the best corners in the league

 

It was gameplan specific too I'm sure. Bills fans severely underrate Jalen Ramsey, probably because Allen has had some of his best performances while facing Ramsey in coverage, but make no mistake he is a very good to elite CB. The Bills wanted no part of the Coleman vs Ramsey matchup, not when the Dolphins defense has plenty of other vulnerabilities to exploit.

 

I think at this point Coleman's ideal usage is a couple of targets on schemed free releases per game, and throw in an occasional contested opportunity in 1v1 coverage when he's facing an average or worse CB. There's no need to force targets to him. If defenses start clogging the middle of the field then we can adjust and see if he's ready to take on a bigger role.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills just aren’t throwing much yet. He’ll get his stats. Everyone will be happy.

[eball]

Man, this place is toxic.  A guy can't even post a relevant stat about one of our receivers (who has been discussed ad nauseam this offseason) without being eviscerated.  WE ALL KNOW IT'S ONLY TWO WEEKS.

 

The alternative would be seeing that list with Coleman at the bottom.  What do you think the narrative would be around here then?

 

Some of you need to decide whether you are Buffalo Bills fans, or just miserable pessimists who have to be right all the time.

 

[Low Positive]

Just now, eball said:

Man, this place is toxic.  A guy can't even post a relevant stat about one of our receivers (who has been discussed ad nauseam this offseason) without being eviscerated.  WE ALL KNOW IT'S ONLY TWO WEEKS.

 

The alternative would be seeing that list with Coleman at the bottom.  What do you think the narrative would be around here then?

 

Some of you need to decide whether you are Buffalo Bills fans, or just miserable pessimists who have to be right all the time.

 

The problem is that these two positions were not mutually exclusive for the better part of 2 decades. This has shaped many Bills fans' relationship with the team.

[HardyBoy]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well against Miami Coleman had I believe 1 target and it was probably an uncatchable. But I watched every route back. I saw one route where I genuinly think he had separation. I agree the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt but through two games I think the concerns about him seaparating are showing up on film. That isn't panic time. It doesn't mean he is worthless. But he is going to have to make plays when not necessarily open and the Bills are going to have to start thinking about trying to scheme him open and get him some free releases. 

How much do you think that’s not necessarily fair because maybe he likes having contact with his defender and uses that to create separation as the ball starts coming?
 

Granted different sport and a lot of football is about anticipation, but I played soccer, basketball and lacrosse and a lot of times I felt I was more open/uncovered when I had contact with my defender because I could control them with my wrist on their hip and use my suddenness to get significant separation, not by pushing off per se (ahem, you can’t call it if you don’t see it) but either using that contact to understand when I could make my move because they were wrong footed, or just very slightly apply pressure with my wrist to where I could again not push off so much as get them to just slightly mistime their footing so I was planting and making my move when  their weight placement was just off very slightly. I was really fast (not trying for this to be a humble brag at all, just trying to understand the nuances of separation and mention my approach was not because I was lacking speed or quickness, but intentional strategy ), so this wasn’t about not being able to run away from people, I just felt I was more open and had more control when I had contact with a defender (or as a defender) where I could focus on using my speed and quickness to get that half step to gain a leverage/positional advantage and maintain contact with my defender (or as a defender) to essentially control my opponent. 
 

Obviously football is different because there are times when you literally look up and the ball is on your face mask, but still you hear about how Coleman is good at separating at the top of the route/at the catch point and I’m wondering if maybe standard separation metrics aren’t adequate in terms of capturing that.
 

I’m not saying you’re wrong either and I massively respect your opinion, which is why I’m asking. I’m not looking for an answer now on if this has potential for success either, I think we’ll need to see if he has a significantly higher success rate catching balls while defenders are in contact with him, and that will take Allen trusting he’s truly open when he’s got contact with a defender (I’d hesitate to call it contested catches though if he has a high success rate, because my argument if that’s the case again would be he’s doing it on purpose and it’s not a contested catch in that situation really, just like it wouldn’t be a contested rebound if Charles Barkley had you boxed out, because you were right where he wanted you even if he wasn’t the biggest, or more appropriately, fastest player on the court). 

 

Like he might be more open with a guy on his hip than he would be with a yard or two of separation because he can manipulate the defender and use that to make a catch and guide the momentum of the defender in a way that lets him spin out of the tackle and get massive YAC?

 

I’m genuinely asking because football is so different and the steps you make with your feet and all that is not something I have any real understanding about. Just coming from a place where based on my experience in the sports I played, that being in contact with a defender, but while being well positioned with that contact was an intentional decision and would make me more open than if I had more space because it could ensure the defender couldn’t undercut me and I was in control/aware of their movement and could use that to my advantage. 

[Charles Romes]

If Coleman was occupying the attention of the Dolphins franchise corner the whole game, that’s a huge win in itself. 

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

How much do you think that’s not necessarily fair because maybe he likes having contact with his defender and uses that to create separation as the ball starts coming?
 

Granted different sport and a lot of football is about anticipation, but I played soccer, basketball and lacrosse and a lot of times I felt I was more open/uncovered when I had contact with my defender because I could control them with my wrist on their hip and use my suddenness to get significant separation, not by pushing off per se (ahem, you can’t call it if you don’t see it) but either using that contact to understand when I could make my move because they were wrong footed, or just very slightly apply pressure with my wrist to where I could again not push off so much as get them to just slightly mistime their footing so I was planting and making my move when  their weight placement was just off very slightly. I was really fast (not trying for this to be a humble brag at all, just trying to understand the nuances of separation and mention my approach was not because I was lacking speed or quickness, but intentional strategy ), so this wasn’t about not being able to run away from people, I just felt I was more open and had more control when I had contact with a defender (or as a defender) where I could focus on using my speed and quickness to get that half step to gain a leverage/positional advantage and maintain contact with my defender (or as a defender) to essentially control my opponent. 
 

Obviously football is different because there are times when you literally look up and the ball is on your face mask, but still you hear about how Coleman is good at separating at the top of the route/at the catch point and I’m wondering if maybe standard separation metrics aren’t adequate in terms of capturing that.
 

I’m not saying you’re wrong either and I massively respect your opinion, which is why I’m asking. I’m not looking for an answer now on if this has potential for success either, I think we’ll need to see if he has a significantly higher success rate catching balls while defenders are in contact with him, and that will take Allen trusting he’s truly open when he’s got contact with a defender (I’d hesitate to call it contested catches though if he has a high success rate, because my argument if that’s the case again would be he’s doing it on purpose and it’s not a contested catch in that situation really, just like it wouldn’t be a contested rebound if Charles Barkley had you boxed out, because you were right where he wanted you even if he wasn’t the biggest, or more appropriately, fastest player on the court). 

 

Like he might be more open with a guy on his hip than he would be with a yard or two of separation because he can manipulate the defender and use that to make a catch and guide the momentum of the defender in a way that lets him spin out of the tackle and get massive YAC?

 

I’m genuinely asking because football is so different and the steps you make with your feet and all that is not something I have any real understanding about. Just coming from a place where based on my experience in the sports I played, that being in contact with a defender, but while being well positioned with that contact was an intentional decision and would make me more open than if I had more space because it could ensure the defender couldn’t undercut me and I was in control/aware of their movement and could use that to my advantage. 

 

This is really good stuff. And remember Coleman comes from a basketball background. His natural inclination is to create contact and box out his man. We've only given him one opportunity in that scenario and he delivered a big catch.

 

Edited September 18 by HappyDays

[Scott7975]

I'm trying to find if they actually explain this stat. I found the website for the people that actually published these stats but this is probably in their advanced stats category and it's pay for.  Not sure I am willing to pay for it as I have no idea who they are. I'm digging still.  Only a few minutes in thus far.  I did manage to find in a subtweet their "separation score"

 

 

Edited September 18 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

Just found this too...

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2024/what-is-ass-average-separation-score#/

 

The ASS Grading Scale

For further clarification on what goes into our grading scale:

A receiver earns a -2 grade when he is completely knocked off his route, taking him completely out of the play (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

A -1 grade is earned when a receiver is tightly covered and would require an exceptional effort from the QB to complete the pass (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

0 is any situation where the receiver does not have the opportunity to create separation. This also includes most screen passes, jet passes, checkdowns, and other targets where the receiver finds holes underneath coverage. (example shown earlier)

+1 is when a receiver creates a step in separation from the defender. (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

+2 is when a receiver creates multiple steps of separation from the defender (example: slot receiver at the top of the screen)

+3 is when a receiver creates extreme separation (example: receiver at the bottom of the screen)

+4 is when there is a bust in coverage, leaving a receiver wide open. (example: receiver at bottom of the screen)

A bust in coverage that leaves a receiver wide open because of a mistake by the defense is not counted into a receiver’s separation score, because the receiver did not create the separation that is gained by their own volition. Despite this, these situations are important to note (especially for you DFS players) because they track what defenses botch their coverages most or least often.

This scale and then the overall score help identify receivers who lose production because of poor quarterback play and which receivers create the most opportunities for themselves and their offenses. (Example: If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy this year, you’ll see how truly special Garrett Wilson is.)

 

In addition to Average Separation Score, we also offer another separation metric: “Route Win Rate.” This is a less predictive, more binary version of ASS, essentially telling us how often a receiver separated (earning a +1 score or better) on a percentage of his routes where separation was possible.

 

This is their criteria.  @GunnerBill I think you wanted to know this like I did.

Edited September 18 by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Just found this too...

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2024/what-is-ass-average-separation-score#/

 

The ASS Grading Scale

For further clarification on what goes into our grading scale:

A receiver earns a -2 grade when he is completely knocked off his route, taking him completely out of the play (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

A -1 grade is earned when a receiver is tightly covered and would require an exceptional effort from the QB to complete the pass (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

0 is any situation where the receiver does not have the opportunity to create separation. This also includes most screen passes, jet passes, checkdowns, and other targets where the receiver finds holes underneath coverage. (example shown earlier)

+1 is when a receiver creates a step in separation from the defender. (example: receiver at the top of the screen)

+2 is when a receiver creates multiple steps of separation from the defender (example: slot receiver at the top of the screen)

+3 is when a receiver creates extreme separation (example: receiver at the bottom of the screen)

+4 is when there is a bust in coverage, leaving a receiver wide open. (example: receiver at bottom of the screen)

A bust in coverage that leaves a receiver wide open because of a mistake by the defense is not counted into a receiver’s separation score, because the receiver did not create the separation that is gained by their own volition. Despite this, these situations are important to note (especially for you DFS players) because they track what defenses botch their coverages most or least often.

This scale and then the overall score help identify receivers who lose production because of poor quarterback play and which receivers create the most opportunities for themselves and their offenses. (Example: If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy this year, you’ll see how truly special Garrett Wilson is.)

 

In addition to Average Separation Score, we also offer another separation metric: “Route Win Rate.” This is a less predictive, more binary version of ASS, essentially telling us how often a receiver separated (earning a +1 score or better) on a percentage of his routes where separation was possible.

 

This is their criteria.  @GunnerBill I think you wanted to know this like I did.

 

Ta. And is their ranking by ASS out there anywhere? Or just the win % stat.