After 2 weeks, Coleman has better win rate/ separation than Worthy and others

[NewEra]

52 minutes ago, Billl said:

MHJ just had 5 catches for 132 yards and 2 TDs.  Keon Coleman had 0 for 0.  Brian Thomas Jr. has 6 catches on 8 targets for 141 yards and a TD.  AD Mitchell has 2 catches on 9 targets for 32 yards and 0 TDs.  This stat clearly has zero meaning.

More the the same

[nedboy7]

139 yards from Josh?  Dude sucks. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

MHJ just had 5 catches for 132 yards and 2 TDs.  Keon Coleman had 0 for 0.  Brian Thomas Jr. has 6 catches on 8 targets for 141 yards and a TD.  AD Mitchell has 2 catches on 9 targets for 32 yards and 0 TDs.  This stat clearly has zero meaning.

 

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Thank you for more of your contrarianism; a role uniquely suited for guests who are visiting another's home. 

It has meaning here because Coleman's questionable ability to separate was a prime subject of debate throughout the offseason.

Just more of the same from someone  here to piss in our cereal.  
 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I think Coleman is going to be a good player.  It’s just a bad stat.  For a good while at the beginning of Josh’s career, the stat that kept getting thrown around was zero 300 yard games.  Everyone argued over whether or not it mattered.  Then he finally got one.  Then he got a 400 yard game the next week.  Now he does it, and it’s not even a big deal.  Clearly that was a meaningless barometer.  So is this one.  I’m pretty sure MHJ is going to be just fine despite his relatively poor showing by this metric.

 

As Simon had already stated, it’s not a stupid stat for some of us, only to have you, a chefs fan, overrule him on his own message board as to why it’s stupid……

 

are you for real?  🤦🏻‍♂️ 

 

 

[Billl]

I did not realize that the “rookie WR separation win rate” as tracked by @fantasypointsdata with a sample size of 2 weeks was held in such high esteem.  It’s just that I think  Marvin Harrison Jr. had a pretty good game and has probably been a top 8 rookie WR so far.  Sorry if that is a hot take.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

MHJ just had 5 catches for 132 yards and 2 TDs.  Keon Coleman had 0 for 0.  Brian Thomas Jr. has 6 catches on 8 targets for 141 yards and a TD.  AD Mitchell has 2 catches on 9 targets for 32 yards and 0 TDs.  This stat clearly has zero meaning.

 

 

No, that idea is just silly. Shows misunderstanding.

 

If you're open and the QB doesn't throw to you, you have done your job and showed that you can get loose. Not your problem the QB didn't see you or the play was structured to go elsewhere. Still your duty to get loose and make yourself an option. If you do so, you've done your job and that's a hopeful and encouraging thing.

 

A guy who's open and isn't thrown to, he's done his job well on the play. A guy who's not open and isn't thrown to has not been successful on the play. Of course we want to know how well our guy is succeeding on more plays even when success or failure isn't obvious to the naked eye in the heat of the moment.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I did not realize that the “rookie WR separation win rate” as tracked by @fantasypointsdata with a sample size of 2 weeks was held in such high esteem.  It’s just that I think  Marvin Harrison Jr. had a pretty good game and has probably been a top 8 rookie WR so far.  Sorry if that is a hot take.

 

 

Oh, please. No need to be so touchy about it.

 

It's not the only thing to track. But when you otherwise have no idea how often your guy is open as the camera isn't following him and the QB isn't throwing to him, it's very much worth looking at and reacting to.

 

 

Edited September 18 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

I think Coleman is going to be a good player.  It’s just a bad stat.  For a good while at the beginning of Josh’s career, the stat that kept getting thrown around was zero 300 yard games.  Everyone argued over whether or not it mattered.  Then he finally got one.  Then he got a 400 yard game the next week.  Now he does it, and it’s not even a big deal.  Clearly that was a meaningless barometer.  So is this one.  I’m pretty sure MHJ is going to be just fine despite his relatively poor showing by this metric.

 

 

No, terrible analogy.

 

300 yards is a number picked for no particular reason. You haven't succeeded if you throw for 300 yards and failed if you throw for 299. 300 is a randomly chosen number. Of course it's not particularly important. Never was.

 

Whereas getting open (or not) on a play is hugely important. Doing it at a high rate shows you have the ability to be successful as a reciever in the NFL. There's more to the job, blocking and such, but that's the heart of the job, to make yourself available for your QB in case he needs you.

 

Ridiculous analogy.

 

 

3 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Not really a fair comp, since MHJ played against the NFL best secondary in week 1. 

 

 

Now, this is a fair caveat. This stat, like pretty much every other one, means less with a smaller sample size.

 

But we've only got two games to look at, doing so makes total sense, understanding that the number may go up and down as the season plays out.

 

There are other possible caveats as well, such as methodology, but I haven't seen anyone here bring that up yet.

 

It's still interesting, though. 

 

 

Edited September 18 by Thurman#1

[Simon]

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I did not realize that the “rookie WR separation win rate” as tracked by @fantasypointsdata with a sample size of 2 weeks was held in such high esteem.  It’s just that I think  Marvin Harrison Jr. had a pretty good game and has probably been a top 8 rookie WR so far.  Sorry if that is a hot take.

 

Not a single person in this thread has suggested this number should be held in high esteem.

Not a single person in this thread has suggested that Marvin Harrison has not been a top 8 rookie so far.

You are creating straw men for the sole purpose of mocking members of this community. When a person comes in here pretending to be a well-meaning guest looking for honest conversation and then instead is intentionally dishonest just so that he can ridicule his hosts, do you know what that makes you by definition?

It makes you a troll.

I am more than happy to have good folks from other fan bases come around here to hang out and have fun because it provides an opportunity for other perspectives and some entertaining wisecracking. But what we are not going to tolerate here on the finest NFL fan forum on the planet is trolls. Which is what you are being.

So if you want to come in and engage in honest discussion and have a good time, I am all about it. But if you continue to make up horseshit just so that you can mock my people, I will throw you right the fu(# out the front door so that you can go back to whatever KC shlthole forum you crawled out of and cry about how the big meanies in Buffalo drop kicked your sorry ass right back to where it belonged.

 

[GunnerBill]

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me.

 

(In average yards of separation by next gen)

McMillan 3.8

Nabers 3.3

Worthy 3.3

Thomas 3.2

Mitchell 3

Odunze 2.7

McConkey 2.4

Coleman 2.3

Harrison 2

Legette 1.8

 

Edited September 18 by GunnerBill

[Thurman#1]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me.

 

 

Hunh. Well, that's less encouraging.

[Simon]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me.

 

(In average yards of separation by next gen)

McMillan 3.8

Nabers 3.3

Worthy 3.3

Thomas 3.2

Mitchell 3

Odunze 2.7

McConkey 2.4

Coleman 2.3

Harrison 2

Legette 1.8

 

 

One thing to consider (on the off chance that both these charts are actually meaningful) is that they are saying very different things.

McMillan beating a guy on a sluggo by 20 yrds but being well-covered most of the rest of the night could result in a high average yards of separation but a low separation win-rate percentage.

While Coleman frequently beating coverage by a couple yards but never leaving the occasional CB jock strap on the field could result in a low average yards of separation but a high separation win-rate percentage.

It's just two very different ways to measure effectiveness so they could both be very right or very wrong.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Simon said:

 

One thing to consider (on the off chance that both these charts are actually meaningful) is that they are saying very different things.

McMillan beating a guy on a sluggo by 20 yrds but being well-covered most of the rest of the night could result in a high average yards of separation but a low separation win-rate percentage.

While Coleman frequently beating coverage by a couple yards but never leaving the occasional CB jock strap on the field could result in a low average yards of separation but a high separation win-rate percentage.

It's just two very different ways to measure effectiveness so they could both be very right or very wrong.

 

That is true, they are measuring different things. I'd be interested in how many of those "wins" they granted him vs the Dolphins. I think I saw one on tape. He did have a little more success against Arizona. 

[Simon]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is true, they are measuring different things. I'd be interested in how many of those "wins" they granted him vs the Dolphins. I think I saw one on tape. He did have a little more success against Arizona. 

 

Only registering at 17%, he just needs to be getting open 1 in every 6 routes. 

Considering how often he is being used as a blocker, that number is not unimaginable.

 

[Scott7975]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me.

 

(In average yards of separation by next gen)

McMillan 3.8

Nabers 3.3

Worthy 3.3

Thomas 3.2

Mitchell 3

Odunze 2.7

McConkey 2.4

Coleman 2.3

Harrison 2

Legette 1.8

 

next gen I believe only tracks separation on plays they get thrown the ball I think.
 

I take these with a grain of salt much like I take drops with a grain of salt. Drops, people only count on balls that don’t require a wr to put any effort in. Basically a perfectly thrown ball with no hard impacts at point of catch. I think that’s too stingy in this day and age. I’d be interested in seeing the criteria they are judging this win rate with. 

Edited September 18 by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

next gen I believe only tracks separation on plays they get thrown the ball I think.
 

I take these with a grain of salt much like I take drops with a grain of salt. Drops, people only count on balls that don’t require a wr to put any effort in. Basically a perfectly thrown ball with no hard impacts at point of catch. I think that’s too stingy in this day and age. I’d be interested in seeing the criteria they are judging this win rate with. 

 

Well against Miami Coleman had I believe 1 target and it was probably an uncatchable. But I watched every route back. I saw one route where I genuinly think he had separation. I agree the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt but through two games I think the concerns about him seaparating are showing up on film. That isn't panic time. It doesn't mean he is worthless. But he is going to have to make plays when not necessarily open and the Bills are going to have to start thinking about trying to scheme him open and get him some free releases. 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well against Miami Coleman had I believe 1 target and it was probably an uncatchable. But I watched every route back. I saw one route where I genuinly think he had separation. I agree the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt but through two games I think the concerns about him seaparating are showing up on film. That isn't panic time. It doesn't mean he is worthless. But he is going to have to make plays when not necessarily open and the Bills are going to have to start thinking about trying to scheme him open and get him some free releases. 

yeah. I don’t have all22 and I trust what you tell me. We may not agree on everything but I trust. 

[Billzgobowlin]

13 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

This is B.S.

Worthy is already considered a top 5 all time receiver…and we gift wrapped him to the Cheifs.

Worthy currently is a gadget guy.  Should have been drafted lower.

[Chaos]

Coleman is doing great so far.  Zero drops and 2-0 as a Bill. 

Separation rates are important.  It seems all separation stats are based on a subjective analysis of the play (eye-ball-tests).  And different reviewers see things differently.  For example PFF (a service NFL teams pay for, whether we like them or not) has the following for Coleman and Worthy for "separation"

Week 1:
Coleman 2 out 11

Worthy  4 out of 9

Week 2: 
Coleman 5 out of 8

Worthy 2 out of 6

Total 
Coleman 7 out  of 19 =37%
Worthy  6 out of 15 = 40%

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-1-separation-report-2024
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-2-separation-report-2024

PFF also reports a week 1 average for all NFL receivers of 55%.

Also  I don't think Win Rate showed in the first post is the same thing as "separation score"
 

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

That is a nice list but not so sure how well it really correlates with production.   Coleman is getting tons of playing time and that means opportunity, we will see how it translates.

 

My general take is it is way too early and too low of samples to separate these guys.

Edited September 18 by Matt_In_NH

[gonzo1105]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". 

 

By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me.

 

(In average yards of separation by next gen)

McMillan 3.8

Nabers 3.3

Worthy 3.3

Thomas 3.2

Mitchell 3

Odunze 2.7

McConkey 2.4

Coleman 2.3

Harrison 2

Legette 1.8

 

 

To me, outside of the first 4 guys, the most impressive rookie I have seen so far is McMillan. He hasn't gotten a ton of opportunities behind Evans and Godwin amongst others but dude is flat out open and Mayfield has missed him a couple of times. I've watched both Bucs games due to fantasy purposes because I have Rachaad White on my team.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

To me, outside of the first 4 guys, the most impressive rookie I have seen so far is McMillan. He hasn't gotten a ton of opportunities behind Evans and Godwin amongst others but dude is flat out open and Mayfield has missed him a couple of times. I've watched both Bucs games due to fantasy purposes because I have Rachaad White on my team.

 

I've not seen a ton of the Buccs yet, but I like McMillan more than most I think around the draft. Will try and catch some of their game this week.