The Ripoff Report: Headaches and Numbers

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Well it certainly is a different experience sitting and watching things unfold elsewhere. But there’s a lot to unpack

 

First off: I have to address a few things about the Bills game on Thursday night.

 

I feel bad for Tua. He’s undergone traumatic and potentially life altering injury for reasons that are not entirely his own fault. I feel bad for Damar Hamlin. He knows better than anyone what it’s like to have a routine play turn into something more, and like his own injury, it was a hit where nothing dirty happened. I feel a bit bad for the Bills team who turned in an incredible performance that was swallowed up by the splashy news of the Tua’s injury. (Though it probably will be to their benefit)

 

I do NOT feel bad for the Dolphins organization. Back in 2022, at the start of all of this, they saw their QB break down with tremors and chose to roll him out there. To compound the issue, they then saw fit to continue him out on a short week where he took an even more savage hit. At that moment I thought Tua might actually retire. It certainly would have been reasonable to IR him when he was lying on the ground, fingers fencing. The Dolphins rolled him out again, where he took ANOTHER concussion. At that point, the Dolphins HAD to know they were playing with fire. Maybe after 23 they thought they had dodged the bullet, but here we are. I don’t even want to call what Hamlin did a “hit”. He tensed and took the blow as Tua speared him and hit with his head more than shoulder. These are the hits people are worried about Josh taking, and Josh is far more durably built.

 

As of today, I am hearing that Tua wants to come back and I am legitimately concerned that he might die on the field. I know it has to be hard for him to make that choice, but this is a compounding issue. If a downright gentle tackle is sending him out, what’s going to happen when a free runner DL hits him? He’s got his money. Someone should be the adult in the room and I am terrified that no one will. 

_______________

If someone told me that Tua secretly had an undiagnosed concussion that night I’d believe it. The Dolphins just didn’t come to play against their division rival. The Bills method of defending the Dolphins isn’t a secret but I saw nothing new from McDaniel.  I’d say that they just didn’t show up but that is selling this defense short. 

 

I am watching the Cardinals vs Rams game and, um, guys…the Cardinals might be good. I remember being warned that they were better than they were given credit but now I am watching them just steamroll the Rams. Murray looks like an All Pro and MHJ like a rookie of the year. The Rams are not a bad team and the Cardinals are smacking them AND THE BILLS STOPPED THEM. This secondary held Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddlen and Marvin Harrison Jr. to less than 100 COMBINED yards while rolling out their 4th string LB. That’s not luck. Babich and McDermott have been dialed in for the last 6 quarters of play. 

_______________

 

One minor observation: I wonder if Babich tends to go to Man coverage more than McDermott. I remember the radio broadcast announcing it in Week1 as an adjustment after halftime and then in the Amazon coverage that the Bills we staying with a Cover 2 shell but were mixing in man coverage to disrupt Hill’s routes. Maybe it’s be noticing for the first time, but it seems that maybe we are getting more wrinkles in the defense. Or I’m crazy.

_______________

I really don’t know how Beane finds incredible back of the draft secondary players but goddamn it looks like he struck gold with Ingram. I know a lot of the success is scheme, but the Bills cornerbacks and secondary has mostly held up rolling out:

-A journeyman the Bills paid a 3rd round pick for

-6th round CB

-Undrafted slot corner backup who was seen as a special teamer

-A S that no one threw money at in open free agency

-6th round safety

-Undrafted free agent dime DB

 

Which makes the Elam whiff all the more inexplicable.

_______________

Man, Von Miller is going to get his check on the way out the door. What I’ve seen isn’t a resurgence to Pro Bowl form, but he at least looks a shadow of himself. I still think that the Bills move on in the offseason but at least we are getting something. But as an overall trend, the D-line is looking at or ahead of expectations

_______________

If there is a single thing that is keeping me up at night, it’s the linebacker room and not for talent. It seems that the Bills got lucky with Bernard and that it might only be a 4-6 week absence and in theory Milano can come back, but hooo boy are things looking light. I won’t be shocked if Beane takes a rental because that is awful light. I half joked but so far the Thick Dime (one LB, 3 safeties (Rapp, Hamlin, Ingrham), NCB and 2 boundary CB) has worked. I think we see it a long until Bernard is back. The team is going to have to find something from Morrow, Spector and Joe A)

 

Long term, this might be a good thing. As I mentioned last week, the direction of league offenses appears to be more running plays and the Bills need LBs who can cover as well as hit. If we can find a third LB who is more of a run stuffer but isn’t a liability in coverage I think that package will see more rotation..

_______________

It’s kinda weird to talk about the offense second in a game where the team put up 31 points, but it’s kind of hard to make forecasts when the Dolphins kept turning the ball over on short fields and the Bills went into trying to choke them out by the third quarter. But let’s enjoy the James Cook show. I was roasted a bit last year for saying that he was a poor man’s CMC and now I am hearing things like “younger Alvin Kamara”. The Bills have him under rookie contract for one more year. Let’s make use of it. I think James might wind up as the Cook brother people remember.

_______________

 

If there is a player to sum up “everyone eats” it’s Josh Allen. If you’d told me that Josh had less than 150 yards passing I’d ask how poorly the game had gone. Some players (cough) seem to care more about running up personal stats than winning. Not Josh. While maybe not great for my betting prospects, Josh was grinning on the sideline as the team coasted and took what the Dolphins gave him.

 

I remember grumbling about the Bills running too much. Now I think that’s silly at the best of times after a victory, but in this game? First off, leaving Hill and Waddle off the field is half the battle in the defensive game plan. Two, one of the fundamental rules of basic situational football is “if the defense can’t stop a play(er) you spam it until they do”. I think the Bills weren’t planning for Cook to rip a 50 yard touchdown one play into the drive, but you take it. There will be weeks when the Bills need Josh to throw 40 times and take over a game but we’ve heard nothing but grumbling about how he can’t do that forever. Well, so far this year he hasn’t had to. We’ll see what happens when they play teams with better run D (the Ravens for one) but it’s only a good thing that they can win multiple ways.

_______________
Tying back a few points: As important as Beane’s ability to find good secondary play seems to be knowing when to move on. Tre White got COOKED by MHJ. The still of Poyer face down as he failed to make it to the edge to stop Cook brought a smile to my face. Those losses hurt, but we are seeing in real time why the choice was made.

_______________

Now with Week 2 in the books I look around the league and...if I was worried about how the Bills look watching most other teams around the league made me feel better. I was worried with all the new pieces and the limited preseason time to gel but right now the Bills are looking their old selves. Are there things to clean up? Yes. But when I was looking at the schedule I made peace with the idea of a 3-3 start as not the end of the world. Now, the Bills are 2-0 and while the upcoming road slog looks nasty, the Jags and Ravens are 0-2 and have looked very much mortal in those games. Let’s go!

[ScottishBills]

Agree with the majority of this,.good write up

 

We will have a MUCH better idea about this defense (and offense!) but mainly defense after

 

@ravens

@texans

@jets

 

That's a heck of run. If we win one and look competitive in the others, then good enough - we can wait for the likes of Taron and Bernard to get back 

 

If we win 2, look out, we are the real deal

 

And if we win three, pack it all up, means we will have peaked way too early and the season is over 😂

 

 

 

 

[djp14150]

A few things….

 

Tre is NOT 100%. He may be more like 80%. He should be 100% next year.

 

on Tua— the hit by Hamlin should not have caused a concussion but it atus. He had to be coming into the game st something less than 100% .

 

you can find decent talent in late rounds of the draft with players coming out of non high profile football programs 

 

Elam is a weird situation.  He’s more of a man coverage player in a more zone defense.

 

[Big Turk]

White got cooked by Jameson Williams in week 1 against Detroit for a long TD.  He looked like he was going to cry after that one...I think he is starting to realize that he just doesn't have it anymore and that he likely is never going to get it back.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

55 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

A few things….

 

Tre is NOT 100%. He may be more like 80%. He should be 100% next year.

 

on Tua— the hit by Hamlin should not have caused a concussion but it atus. He had to be coming into the game st something less than 100% .

 

you can find decent talent in late rounds of the draft with players coming out of non high profile football programs 

 

Elam is a weird situation.  He’s more of a man coverage player in a more zone defense.

 

That's the thing: as far as I know Tua didn't take any massive shots up until that point. If that level of hits is causing that level of concussion it's only getting worse from here.

[Sweats]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's the thing: as far as I know Tua didn't take any massive shots up until that point. If that level of hits is causing that level of concussion it's only getting worse from here.

 

 

It looked like even after Tua ran into Hamlin, the back of his head bounced off the turf when he came down.........so he got a little double dose there from both sides.

[Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Tre is NOT 100%. He may be more like 80%. He should be 100% next year.

Slight chance this is as close to 100% he's gonna get.  about to be 30 coming off acl and achilles 

[Big Turk]

49 minutes ago, Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin said:

Slight chance this is as close to 100% he's gonna get.  about to be 30 coming off acl and achilles 

 

Achilles injuries are really tough for a player whose main job is to backpedal and then plant and drive. 

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

It looked like even after Tua ran into Hamlin, the back of his head bounced off the turf when he came down.........so he got a little double dose there from both sides.

 

Twisting of the head causing brainstem issue is more likely issue from what we have seen.  The head trauma will cause headaches,  vision and other issues.

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, Punching Bag said:

 

Twisting of the head causing brainstem issue is more likely issue from what we have seen.  The head trauma will cause headaches,  vision and other issues.

 

 

 

I can't read that word.......next time, make it a little bigger.

[MJS]

5 hours ago, djp14150 said:

A few things….

 

Tre is NOT 100%. He may be more like 80%. He should be 100% next year.

 

on Tua— the hit by Hamlin should not have caused a concussion but it atus. He had to be coming into the game st something less than 100% .

 

you can find decent talent in late rounds of the draft with players coming out of non high profile football programs 

 

Elam is a weird situation.  He’s more of a man coverage player in a more zone defense.

 

How do you know he isn't 100%? Is that being reported anywhere?

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Well it certainly is a different experience sitting and watching things unfold elsewhere. But there’s a lot to unpack

 

First off: I have to address a few things about the Bills game on Thursday night.

 

I feel bad for Tua. He’s undergone traumatic and potentially life altering injury for reasons that are not entirely his own fault. I feel bad for Damar Hamlin. He knows better than anyone what it’s like to have a routine play turn into something more, and like his own injury, it was a hit where nothing dirty happened. I feel a bit bad for the Bills team who turned in an incredible performance that was swallowed up by the splashy news of the Tua’s injury. (Though it probably will be to their benefit)

 

I do NOT feel bad for the Dolphins organization. Back in 2022, at the start of all of this, they saw their QB break down with tremors and chose to roll him out there. To compound the issue, they then saw fit to continue him out on a short week where he took an even more savage hit. At that moment I thought Tua might actually retire. It certainly would have been reasonable to IR him when he was lying on the ground, fingers fencing. The Dolphins rolled him out again, where he took ANOTHER concussion. At that point, the Dolphins HAD to know they were playing with fire. Maybe after 23 they thought they had dodged the bullet, but here we are. I don’t even want to call what Hamlin did a “hit”. He tensed and took the blow as Tua speared him and hit with his head more than shoulder. These are the hits people are worried about Josh taking, and Josh is far more durably built.

 

As of today, I am hearing that Tua wants to come back and I am legitimately concerned that he might die on the field. I know it has to be hard for him to make that choice, but this is a compounding issue. If a downright gentle tackle is sending him out, what’s going to happen when a free runner DL hits him? He’s got his money. Someone should be the adult in the room and I am terrified that no one will. 

_______________

If someone told me that Tua secretly had an undiagnosed concussion that night I’d believe it. The Dolphins just didn’t come to play against their division rival. The Bills method of defending the Dolphins isn’t a secret but I saw nothing new from McDaniel.  I’d say that they just didn’t show up but that is selling this defense short. 

 

I am watching the Cardinals vs Rams game and, um, guys…the Cardinals might be good. I remember being warned that they were better than they were given credit but now I am watching them just steamroll the Rams. Murray looks like an All Pro and MHJ like a rookie of the year. The Rams are not a bad team and the Cardinals are smacking them AND THE BILLS STOPPED THEM. This secondary held Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddlen and Marvin Harrison Jr. to less than 100 COMBINED yards while rolling out their 4th string LB. That’s not luck. Babich and McDermott have been dialed in for the last 6 quarters of play. 

_______________

 

One minor observation: I wonder if Babich tends to go to Man coverage more than McDermott. I remember the radio broadcast announcing it in Week1 as an adjustment after halftime and then in the Amazon coverage that the Bills we staying with a Cover 2 shell but were mixing in man coverage to disrupt Hill’s routes. Maybe it’s be noticing for the first time, but it seems that maybe we are getting more wrinkles in the defense. Or I’m crazy.

_______________

I really don’t know how Beane finds incredible back of the draft secondary players but goddamn it looks like he struck gold with Ingram. I know a lot of the success is scheme, but the Bills cornerbacks and secondary has mostly held up rolling out:

-A journeyman the Bills paid a 3rd round pick for

-6th round CB

-Undrafted slot corner backup who was seen as a special teamer

-A S that no one threw money at in open free agency

-6th round safety

-Undrafted free agent dime DB

 

Which makes the Elam whiff all the more inexplicable.

_______________

Man, Von Miller is going to get his check on the way out the door. What I’ve seen isn’t a resurgence to Pro Bowl form, but he at least looks a shadow of himself. I still think that the Bills move on in the offseason but at least we are getting something. But as an overall trend, the D-line is looking at or ahead of expectations

_______________

If there is a single thing that is keeping me up at night, it’s the linebacker room and not for talent. It seems that the Bills got lucky with Bernard and that it might only be a 4-6 week absence and in theory Milano can come back, but hooo boy are things looking light. I won’t be shocked if Beane takes a rental because that is awful light. I half joked but so far the Thick Dime (one LB, 3 safeties (Rapp, Hamlin, Ingrham), NCB and 2 boundary CB) has worked. I think we see it a long until Bernard is back. The team is going to have to find something from Morrow, Spector and Joe A)

 

Long term, this might be a good thing. As I mentioned last week, the direction of league offenses appears to be more running plays and the Bills need LBs who can cover as well as hit. If we can find a third LB who is more of a run stuffer but isn’t a liability in coverage I think that package will see more rotation..

_______________

It’s kinda weird to talk about the offense second in a game where the team put up 31 points, but it’s kind of hard to make forecasts when the Dolphins kept turning the ball over on short fields and the Bills went into trying to choke them out by the third quarter. But let’s enjoy the James Cook show. I was roasted a bit last year for saying that he was a poor man’s CMC and now I am hearing things like “younger Alvin Kamara”. The Bills have him under rookie contract for one more year. Let’s make use of it. I think James might wind up as the Cook brother people remember.

_______________

 

If there is a player to sum up “everyone eats” it’s Josh Allen. If you’d told me that Josh had less than 150 yards passing I’d ask how poorly the game had gone. Some players (cough) seem to care more about running up personal stats than winning. Not Josh. While maybe not great for my betting prospects, Josh was grinning on the sideline as the team coasted and took what the Dolphins gave him.

 

I remember grumbling about the Bills running too much. Now I think that’s silly at the best of times after a victory, but in this game? First off, leaving Hill and Waddle off the field is half the battle in the defensive game plan. Two, one of the fundamental rules of basic situational football is “if the defense can’t stop a play(er) you spam it until they do”. I think the Bills weren’t planning for Cook to rip a 50 yard touchdown one play into the drive, but you take it. There will be weeks when the Bills need Josh to throw 40 times and take over a game but we’ve heard nothing but grumbling about how he can’t do that forever. Well, so far this year he hasn’t had to. We’ll see what happens when they play teams with better run D (the Ravens for one) but it’s only a good thing that they can win multiple ways.

_______________
Tying back a few points: As important as Beane’s ability to find good secondary play seems to be knowing when to move on. Tre White got COOKED by MHJ. The still of Poyer face down as he failed to make it to the edge to stop Cook brought a smile to my face. Those losses hurt, but we are seeing in real time why the choice was made.

_______________

Now with Week 2 in the books I look around the league and...if I was worried about how the Bills look watching most other teams around the league made me feel better. I was worried with all the new pieces and the limited preseason time to gel but right now the Bills are looking their old selves. Are there things to clean up? Yes. But when I was looking at the schedule I made peace with the idea of a 3-3 start as not the end of the world. Now, the Bills are 2-0 and while the upcoming road slog looks nasty, the Jags and Ravens are 0-2 and have looked very much mortal in those games. Let’s go!

 

Good ***** @WhitewalkerInPhilly Good *****!  As the players seem to say to each other after a good play.

 

Regarding Elam: one of the reasons that first round picks have the bust rate they do, is that it's very difficult to predict the impact on a young man's work ethic and ego when he suddenly Gets Paid like a 1st round pick.  But from what we saw in pre-season and when Elam has had his chances, I don't think that's what's happened.  I do think his previous DB coach wasn't the best fit for him and he may have struggled to listen there.  See Tua comments on Flores for how that can play out.  Back to Elam, I don't think he's a star but I don't think he's a bust, either, and I think he'd improve if he actually got a few games of snaps. 

My personal take on it is that Christian Benford is just a gem and has outplayed a good player.  Elam seems to have worked hard and leveled up this off season, and Benford looked over at the in-team competition and said "OK Bet".

 

You could think of it as Edwards-Helaire and Isaih Pacheco.  Edwards-Helaire played 13 games as a rookie, had 1100 yds from scrimmage, which projects to 1438 yds in a 17 game season.  He played 10 games his 2nd year, again would project to 1038 yds from scrimmage in 17 games.  He's not CMC or peak Travis Henry, but that's Solid, that's not a bust.  But Isaih Pacheco "seized the day" when Helaire got injured again, and has never looked back.  It's not that Helaire is a bad player or a bust, it's just that the guy originally drafted in the 7th round turned out to be a gem.

 

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I am (maybe the only?) one who has the opinion Tua went into the game with an undiagnosed concussion from the previous Sunday night.  I have this opinion because I thought from the first drive, and certainly by the end of the 1Q, Tua was making uncharacteristic mistakes.  Now maybe the Bills defensive coverage and pressure had him that stymied, but he was definitely making "unforced errors".  So I think the Bills may have been on the Thursday end of the 2022 Sunday undiagnosed concussion - Thursday horrible looking concussion with involuntary arm and hand movements

-------

 

I think McDaniel believed that between the "downgrade" to the Bills DBs by moving on from Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde and missing Taron Johnson, plus the inside gouge he doubtless got from Poyer, he didn't NEED to come up with something new.  I think he believed they would tear us apart and parteeeee.  Not to take away from the Bills secondary, but don't underestimate the impact of the pressure the Bills were able to put on Tua with their front 4, and part of that were the creative ways Babich seemed to be using that front 4.  

 

-------

Have you watched the OBD segment with Greg Cosell?  If you give Maddy the benefit of the doubt (and she IS really trying), it's well worth a listen

 

Cosell makes the point, if you just heard the Bills had only 45 offensive plays and possess the ball on offense for less than 24 minutes, you would have said "that's not really a recipe for victory".  And yet, here we are, 31-10.

 

The thing is, they really weren't keeping Hill and Waddle off the field.  They had the opportunity to be on the field for more than 36 minutes.  And yet.

 

4 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That's the thing: as far as I know Tua didn't take any massive shots up until that point. If that level of hits is causing that level of concussion it's only getting worse from here.

 

He was sacked by Ed Oliver and took a pretty good whallop on that as far as I could tell.  Think he had a couple of hits after the ball was released - maybe one by Epenesa and one by Miller?

 

Thing is it was nothing at all unusual for the QB in an NFL game

Edited September 17 by Beck Water

[djp14150]

58 minutes ago, MJS said:

How do you know he isn't 100%? Is that being reported anywhere?

Medical fact. Coming off his type of injury he’s will not be 100% before a year it usually takes 18 months to be 100%

5 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

It looked like even after Tua ran into Hamlin, the back of his head bounced off the turf when he came down.........so he got a little double dose there from both sides.

That's a fall to the head Since he wasn’t running and with the helmet on should not have caused a concussion. If it dies thrn regular folks get confused every time they fell in hit their head on the ground.

[Simon]

8 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

If it dies thrn regular folks get confused every time they fell in hit their head on the ground.

 

Dude, did you just fall and hit your head? - )

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Medical fact. Coming off his type of injury he’s will not be 100% before a year it usually takes 18 months to be 100%

Yeah, and it is also a medical fact that some guys don't ever get back to what they were, especially when they are further along in their careers and have other injuries that have piled up.

 

I think this is what Tre White is now.